RNS Number:9814J
Roc Oil Company Limited
21 March 2005
Roc Oil Company Limited
Level 14
Market St
Sydney NSW 2000
Date of lodgement: 21-Mar-2005
Title: Open Briefing. Roc Oil. Production & Reserves Outlook
Record of interview:
corporatefile.com.au
Roc Oil Company Limited recently announced the Final Investment Decision for the
Cliff Head Oil Field (ROC 37.5% and Operator), offshore Perth Basin, Western
Australia. How do you rank Cliff Head amongst your projects in terms of ROC's
future growth?
CEO John Doran
It's one of several projects we're progressing. It's part of our conveyor belt
approach to portfolio management.
ROC's net interest in Cliff Head's forecast early production (4,000 BOPD),
capital costs (A$85 million) and recoverable reserves (5.25 MMBO) are, very
broadly speaking, comparable to the Company's net interests in the combined
production, capex and reserves of the Blane and Enoch Fields in the North Sea,
both of which are at the pre-development stage with the possibility that they
will be on stream during the second half of 2006.
In similar, net ROC terms, early production from the Chinguetti Field, offshore
Mauritania (2,400 BOPD), is expected to be about 60% of ROC's net share of
production from Cliff Head.
Analysts estimate that Cliff Head is generally thought to represent about 15% to
25% of ROC's A$350 million market capitalization.
While Cliff Head doesn't totally overshadow our other assets in terms of
production, development cost and reserve size net to ROC, it's still a vital
project for the Company, particularly because it's operated by ROC.
corporatefile.com.au
You now have several projects in the development stage or pre-development stage.
Can you outline a possible production profile by project?
CEO John Doran
Generally, production forecasts made before production begins are easy to get
wrong. That's why we're hesitant about providing detailed forecasts; we don't
want to inadvertently over-promise and under-deliver. However, both the
Chinguetti and Cliff Head fields are now at the stage where it will be
disappointing if, by this time next year, their combined production wasn't
headed towards 6,500 BOPD net to ROC.
If the current redevelopment of the Ardmore Field in the UK North Sea is
successful, ROC would expect to exercise its option to acquire up to 26% of that
field. Then you might add 3,000 BOPD or more to our net production from Cliff
Head and Chinguetti. That would bring company-wide production close to 10,000
BOPD. There is no guarantee, however, that the Ardmore redevelopment will be
successful, therefore, we shouldn't put too much weight on that high-end
company-wide number.
Blane and Enoch could be coming on stream six or nine months after Cliff Head
and Chinguetti. That's one of the good thing about our conveyor belt approach
to portfolio management. Blane and Enoch could boost ROC's net company-wide
production by a further 3,000 BOPD offsetting any initial production decline at
Cliff Head and Chinguetti.
Our Wei-12-8 West Field in the Beibu Gulf could be coming onto production in
2007, several months after Blane and Enoch come on stream, subject to what
happens during the next few months in China. This is a small field (around 7 -
10 MMBO) but, as a general guide, ROC's net early production from its first
potential field development in China should be not too far behind its net early
production from Chinguetti. However, first we need to advance the
pre-development discussions to a firm development commitment.
corporatefile.com.au
Chinguetti and Cliff Head are now being developed. Which of ROC's remaining
projects do you think have the best chance of proceeding to development?
CEO John Doran
With Ardmore currently producing about 6,500 BOPD it would seem to stand a
reasonable chance of being further developed, but its future as a robust oil
producer is by no means assured and we won't have a definite view for several
months.
We would be somewhat surprised if the Wei-12-8 West Field didn't proceed to
production. China has an enormous thirst for oil and one of the State oil
companies is actively considering the development of other accumulations in
areas adjacent to our field. Indeed, we're in active discussions with the
relevant Government authorities in China with regard to this potential
development which could also open up the way for the development of other fields
in our block.
Everybody seems to believe that the Tiof Field in Mauritania will be developed.
We share that view. However, we're not quite as clear-cut as to when that
development will happen. We don't think it's going to be soon, probably not
before late 2008. We don't think it will be particularly easy. The field
covers a large area, arguably, of up to 70 sq km and it is sedimentologically
complex. The modest sized oil discovery at Tevet, near the Chinguetti Field,
also stands a good chance of being developed as a satellite to that field.
The fate of the nearby Banda Gas Field will be decided by much broader
considerations relating to Mauritania's gas strategy. This seems to be on a bit
of a roll at the moment. We're fully supportive of any commercial gas
development.
The Blane and Enoch Fields in the UK North Sea are benefiting from having a more
focussed operator and more cohesive joint venture. These fields could well be
on production by the end of next year.
Having said all that, I would emphasise one key point: if the oil price falls
below US$30/BBL for any significant period of time most of the above bets will
be under review, except for those fields which are currently being developed -
Chinguetti and Cliff Head.
corporatefile.com.au
With this sensitivity to oil prices, can you give your view of future oil prices
and, if possible, provide details of ROC's approach to oil price hedging?
CEO John Doran
Generally, ROC has taken a conservative view of oil prices. We like to think
that we still do. We said last year that we think we're in a price upswing that
could last much longer than people would have expected a year or two ago.
Arguably, the downturn in the oil price during the '80s and '90s, lasted for 10
or 15 years; there is no reason why the so-called high oil prices (above US$30/
BBL) wouldn't prevail for several to many years into the future. The worry is
that, once a public and industry consensus forms, the oil price has a
cantankerous habit of heading off in the opposite direction. At the moment
though, it's easier to envisage a small incident in the Middle East sending the
oil price to some point north of US$60/BBL than to imagine oil prices
consistently below US$30/BBL any time soon.
We're currently finalising the details of our oil price risk management
strategy. We will look very closely at locking in an appropriate price to cover
part of our cost exposure to the Chinguetti and/or Cliff Head developments. As
we go through this thought process we're mindful of the need to ensure that
shareholders should also have adequate exposure to higher oil prices. We would
hate to have a lot of our production locked in at, say, US$40/BBL if oil was
being sold for US$70/BBL. Equally, if the oil price fell towards US$30/BBL we
wouldn't want to be overexposed to that descent. The end product will be a
prudently balanced oil price risk mitigation arrangement that will protect much
of the downside that exists below current forward curve prices and also provide
shareholders with a continuing exposure to some of the upside.
corporatefile.com.au
What are ROC's current oil reserves by project and also the oil-in-place
estimates for the less advanced projects?
CEO John Doran
When looked at individually, none of the fields that ROC is involved with on a
pre-development or development basis are large by world standards.
Collectively, however, they are very relevant to ROC. Most of the fields we
have referred to in this conversation have net ROC proved and probable
recoverable reserves in the range of 4 to 6 MMBO - with the Blane and Enoch
Fields being considered as a single entity for this purpose.
In-place oil estimates don't count. It's the black stuff you can pull out that
is important. Tiof may well have half a billion to a billion barrels of oil in
place but it will depend on how much of it we can get out. Our Wei 12-8-East
Field in China would seem to have more oil in place than Cliff Head but its
higher viscosity clouds its development potential.
corporatefile.com.au
You've mentioned that you're hopeful of adding to reserves at Cliff Head by
exploring and appraising areas close to the platform. Can you give more detail
on your plans and expectations? What opportunities are there to increase the
size of ROC's other projects?
CEO John Doran
Near Ardmore, in the North Sea, there are a number of known accumulations and
some exploration prospects, that can be reached from the drilling platform which
is currently being used as a production facility.
The same will be true at Cliff Head - at least with respect to the exploration
and appraisal potential of the immediately surrounding area. In neither case do
we want to over-egg the upside potential. It's yet to be proven. It may not
happen. Directionally, however, it might well be possible to cost efficiently
increase Cliff Head's recoverable reserves by 25% to 50% if the three nearby
areas, which are believed to represent the near term upside potential, deliver
the right results. Testing this upside potential will be all the more
attractive once the platform and other infrastructure are established in the
area.
corporatefile.com.au
In February 2005, ROC announced that during the balance of 2005 it expects to
drill up to 34 wells, 12 (35%) of which will be operated by the Company. These
include development wells. The anticipated net cost to ROC of the total
programme is in the order of A$50 million. Which are the most significant
exploration wells in terms of potential reward? When will you be drilling these?
CEO John Doran
ROC's exploration drilling potential could be one of the invisible value drivers
of the Company. The "invisible" label mainly reflects the fact that we tend not
to ramp up our exploration wells before they are drilled on the basis that, by
definition, each exploration well drilled has a less than 50% chance of being
successful. As such, any single well is more likely to be dry than a discovery.
However, during 2005 ROC has a number of exploration wells lined up that could
have a very positive impact on the Company - if they turn out to be a discovery
rather than dry! Included in this category is the Hadda-1 exploration well that
is being drilled at the moment in the northern part of the offshore Perth Basin
and the deepwater exploration well that ROC will drill offshore Equatorial
Guinea in the second half of this year. A commercial discovery at either
location would change ROC. If we drill Willows-1 in the UK that could also be
another high impact well.
We also hope to drill an exploration well in China this year and, although the
individual target is not large, it's near our 2002 oil discovery so if it proves
to be successful it would open up a very neat little cluster of 3-D
seismically-defined fields and prospects near infrastructure. At the same time,
if all goes well in the southern part of that Block, we will be working with the
Chinese authorities to develop the, quite separate, Wei-12-8 West Field.
Within the year we expect to be back in the northern part of the offshore Perth
Basin for Flying Foam-1 while offshore Mauritania, ROC will, once again,
participate in a number of exploration wells.
Apart from its diversity and potential, one of the good things about ROC's
aggressive 2005 drilling programme is that the Company is well able to fund it
from internal sources.
corporatefile.com.au
ROC built its current strong balance sheet from the operating cash flow and
proceeds from the sale of the Saltfleetby Gas Field. Do you expect to find
another Saltfleetby, onshore UK?
CEO John Doran
Not really; but it's possible. We hope to drill an exploration well, Willows-1,
later this year that could certainly deliver a field of Saltfleetby's size. On
balance, the onshore UK hasn't lived up to the expectations that were,
understandably, generated by having a field like Saltfleetby in the middle of an
area which was then barely explored.
We will review the tight gas potential of a couple of the onshore UK wells which
we already have under our corporate belt at Errington-1 and Cloughton-1. We
don't want to over hype this tight gas strategy because it's still at an early
stage. Things may change but, at the moment, if we had to put a bet down on the
most likely activity for 2005 the money would probably land on a tight gas frac
stimulation at Cloughton towards the end of the year.
corporatefile.com.au
What is ROC's current cash balance and can you summarise your known expenditure
commitments?
CEO John Doran
ROC went into 2005 with A$205 million in cash and receivables and no debt.
That's on a pro forma basis, of course, because the proceeds of the sale of the
Saltfleetby Gas Field and of a Placement of 10 million shares at a premium to
market, were not received until January 2005.
Since then we've been happily funding our various commitments including the
pre-development activities at Cliff Head and the development of Chinguetti. If
we chose not to use project related debt, or a logical corporate debt facility,
we could still develop Chinguetti and Cliff Head and fund our aggressive 2005
exploration programme from our current cash reserve. In all probability,
however, we will fund part of our developments from a debt facility, be it
corporate or project based.
corporatefile.com.au
While this Open Briefing has been focussed on ROC's various specific projects
can you tell us how and where they all fit within the Company's overall
strategy?
CEO John Doran
ROC's strategy hasn't changed since Day One. We're continuing to serve up and
mature a conveyor belt of projects ranging from new ventures and exploration to
development and, soon, significant production. It's a fundamental organic
growth strategy. An integral part of this strategy is to manage our portfolio
by monetising mature assets if the price offered is very compelling. That's
what happened at Saltfleetby.
Our strategy continues to be "sensibly contrary". Rarely do we attend industry
data room auctions because we don't like open cheque book competition. The
deals we review are usually sourced from personal contacts through our industry
network. They are generally characterised by low entry costs, often via an
option arrangement, into an area that has a lot of untested upside potential.
In some cases the area is barely explored, like the offshore Perth Basin or, in
the case of onshore Angola, it has been totally unexplored for more than 30
years. Fiscal terms are always attractive and government relations always good.
In almost all cases there will be a confirmed petroleum system present, often a
prolific one.
Being an international operating company is an important part of ROC's overall
strategy. We've always believed that being an operator not only allows the
Company to influence its destiny more than would otherwise be the case, but it
also provides the Company with an additional currency in terms of transactions.
Being an international operator can be a challenging strategy and one which
demands a larger and more diverse workforce than would otherwise be the case
but, in ROC's opinion, the benefits are well worth the effort.
An important aspect of the particular niche we have been working relates to
large international companies which operate international assets that have
become immaterial to them but which they cannot simply walk away from because
they often have much more material interests elsewhere in the same country and
an important relationship with the host government which they don't want to
disrupt. This means that they need a good operator to whom they can transfer
the assets. I don't just mean a company that can rush in and drill a well and
then rush out, but a company with an established operating culture and a good
health, safety, environmental and community record. Any of the big companies
could operate such assets but, usually, they will face the same materiality
problem as the company that wants to divest. Most small companies would
consider the relevant assets to be material but few would have the necessary
operating capability. That's the gap we would like to think ROC could fill.
That's exactly how we got into onshore Angola and, with some variation on the
big company aspect of that theme, a basically similar strategy got ROC got into
most of our other areas.
ROC will consider buying assets. That's what we did at Ardmore. This is
consistent with the Change-the-Company strategy which was first articulated
several years ago and which parallels our "Organic Growth" strategy. The
"C-t-C" strategy is a long term strategy that will be implemented once we
identify a substantial asset acquisition opportunity, probably one that is under
development or in production, rather than one of a corporate nature.
corporatefile.com.au
Thank you John.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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please visit www.corporatefile.com.au
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For further information please contact:
Dr John Doran on
Tel: +61-2-8356-2000
Fax: +61-2-9380-2635
Email: jdoran@rocoil.com.au
Or visit ROC's website: www.rocoil.com.au
Dr Kevin Hird
General Manager Business Development
Tel: +44 (0)207 586 7935
Fax: +44 (0)207 722 3919
Email: khird@rocoil.com.au
Nick Lambert
Bell Pottinger Corporate & Financial
Tel: +44 (0)207 861 3232
This information is provided by RNS
The company news service from the London Stock Exchange
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