Bitcoin On Track For $1 Million Per BTC “Fair Value”, Analyst Says
2024年5月3日 - 2:00AM
NEWSBTC
An analyst has explained how the “fair value” of Bitcoin appears to
be on track to achieve the $1 million milestone by 2035. Bitcoin
Total User Count Could Forecast Fair Value Path Forward In a new
post on X, analyst Willy Woo has discussed about how the fair value
of Bitcoin could look like in the future based on the growth curve
in the total user count on the network. Related Reading: Bitcoin
Greed No More: Sentiment Back At Neutral After $57,000 Plunge The
“total user count” here refers to the total number of investors
present in the BTC space. Often, this metric is equated with the
total number of addresses on the network carrying a balance, but in
reality, it’s not the most accurate method as a lot of investors
own multiple wallets. To make an estimation of an adoption curve,
Woo has referred to all past studies done on the user count. The
analyst shared the below chart in an X post a few days back. The
adoption curve of the cryptocurrency over its entire history |
Source: @woonomic on X The early part of the chart here is based on
Glassnode’s on-chain clustering of addresses into “entities.” An
entity is a collection of Bitcoin wallets that Glassnode has
determined to belong to the same investor. For the next part of the
curve, Woo has added the Cambridge and Crypto.com data on verified
exchange users. Finally, the analyst has projected the resulting
growth rate forward. According to this curve, there are a total of
426 million Bitcoin investors at the moment, with the number
estimated to hit the 0.5 billion milestone by October of this year.
Interestingly, the price of the cryptocurrency has been oscillating
around this total user count growth curve throughout the years, as
the below chart depicts. The adoption curve of the asset compared
against its price action | Source: @woonomic on X More
specifically, this oscillation in the price around the adoption
curve of the cryptocurrency has existed since 2012. This means that
in the pre-2012 period (the shaded region in the graph), this
pattern doesn’t quite hold. “In the early days price was slow to
catch up to user count, BTC didn’t even have a price until the
1000th user came in,” notes Woo. “Price discovery started with
early markets like New Liberty Standard and MtGox. By Aug 2011
Bitstamp launched and we had multiple global exchanges to properly
price the asset.” Now, if the growth curve of Bitcoin is taken as a
guide for its future value as well, then the analyst projects a $1
million per BTC fair value by the year 2035. “Fair value” here is
based on the line around which the asset has been oscillating.
Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Predicts 244% Shiba Inu Rally Based
On Bull Flag From the chart, it’s visible that BTC has historically
gained distance over this line during bull markets, so the peak
value in future rallies can be significantly more than this fair
value. It now remains to be seen how the price of the
cryptocurrency will develop in the coming years and whether this
relationship between it and the total user count will continue to
hold or not. BTC Price Bitcoin has observed a plunge of more than
8% over the past week, which has brought its price down to $58,600.
Looks like the price of the coin has registered a sharp drop
recently | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from
iStock.com, chart from TradingView.com
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