By Jon Ostrower and Andy Pasztor
Boeing Co. (BA) next week is expected to reach an assembly
milestone on the next version of its Dreamliner jet without a fix
for what has bedeviled the plane's electrical system or a timetable
for resuming flights.
The new Dreamliner, called the 787-9, would carry about 40 more
passengers and fly slightly farther than the current model, which
carries around 250. It would use the same electrical system and
lithium-ion batteries as the current model.
Continuing work on the new model is important to Boeing in part
because of its expected higher price tag and need to avoid new
supply chain problems that delayed first deliveries of the existing
Dreamliner by 3 1/2 years.
Earlier this week, Boeing's modified 747 Dreamlifter ferried the
first major sections of the 787-9 to North Charleston, S.C., from
Japan, a person familiar with the manufacturing plans said. The
special delivery is the first step toward assembling the jet's
20-foot-longer fuselage.
On Friday, the National Transportation Safety Board's update of
its probe signaled investigators from the board and the Federal
Aviation Administration continue to be unclear why lithium-ion
batteries aboard a pair of Dreamliners operated by two Japanese
airlines burned last month.
A Jan. 7 fire and subsequent emergency landing on Jan. 16 led to
a worldwide grounding of the about 50 Dreamliners in service at
global airlines, which now heads into its fourth week.
By reporting that detailed examination of an undamaged battery
removed from one of the planes hasn't produced any "anomalies"--and
disclosing that more outside experts are joining the team--the
announcement appeared to buttress comments by industry and
government officials that progress in the investigation is slow and
uneven.
U.S. and Japanese investigators previously said they failed to
identify obvious defects with the plane's batteries, battery
chargers, or related electrical and mechanical systems.
The safety board, according to these officials, still hasn't
focused on what it considers the leading theory explaining the
dangerous battery malfunctions. Working alongside Boeing engineers
and battery scientists, federal investigators "essentially remain
stumped" in finding the root cause, according to one person
familiar with the details. Absent a likely theory, this person
said, at this point "investigators aren't really even sure what
they are looking for."
Boeing Chief Executive Jim McNerney said on Wednesday the
company and investigators were "narrowing down the things that
could have gone wrong."
But the prospect that identifying the root cause and then
devising a possible fix could take many more weeks-- or perhaps
stretch into months-- poses potentially huge challenges for the
Chicago plane maker.
Despite the grounding, production of the 787 is continuing with
"business as usual," said Mr. McNerney. The company has no
intention of changing current plans to double output to 10
Dreamliners a month by year's end.
The FAA, however, hasn't agreed on any procedures that would
permit Boeing to start flight-testing electrical or other essential
systems on the new model, according to people familiar with the
details. The FAA declined immediate comment.
If investigators reach a breakthrough, Boeing may be allowed "to
formulate a set of revised airline operating procedures that will
allow carriers to safely operate their 787s, giving time for Boeing
to design a more permanent fix to the problem," wrote Cai von
Ruhmor, aerospace analyst at banker Cowen & Co.
"We recognize that the 787's future cannot be separated from
Boeing's prospects," according to Howard Rubel, a managing director
Jefferies & Co. who has computed a range of potential economic
fallout for Boeing. Mr. Rubel's scenarios include design changes on
around 125 jets, projected to cost an additional $250 million to
$650 million, and a potential a three-month slip in Boeing's
production plans prompting $1.9 billion in missed revenue this year
and slower productivity gains.
The company faces the double challenge of resolving safety
issues with the batteries on the current 787 version, which entered
service in 2011 after lengthy delays, and then phasing in a
permanent fix for the larger 787-9 without interrupting its
development.
The company hopes to deliver the first 787-9 to Air New Zealand
PLC by early next year.
Boeing spokesman Marc Birtel says the company continues to make
"steady progress" on the 787-9. "We remain confident in the design
of the 787 and will apply any lessons learned on the 787-8 to the
787-9, as appropriate, before it enters service."
For now Boeing is using a number of electrical-system simulators
on the ground to mimic airborne trips in an effort to find
technical answers. "They have been cycling around the clock to
simulate flights, without finding anything unusual," according to
one person familiar with the details.
Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood, who last month ordered the
comprehensive review of the 787's design and production, said on
Friday that "we will continue to look at the entire plane with a
focus on the batteries."
Mr. LaHood, who has declined to talk about the status of the
global investigation or sketch out a timeline for completion, said:
"those planes aren't going to fly until we get the green light from
the people who are doing the top-to-bottom review that they're safe
to fly."
--Sarah Portlock contributed to this article.
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