Direxion Daily 20 plus Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares (TMF) オプション

TLT and TMF Harry Dent - listen at 6:19

Bodes well for TMF - 10's and 2's uninverted and TLT is knocking on three figures again.

Treasury prices in my opinion are due for a super spike.

https://www.financial-reality.com/post/dollar-global-margin-call-in-progress
In summary, the dollar's multi-decade "exorbitant privilege" is now ending from an investor standpoint. What is coming sooner than later is the mother of all crashes and then a policy response that is akin to pouring gasoline on a burning fire. Only when the Fed panics and takes over the bond market will things calm down. By that time, most asset markets will be a smoking crater.


For the time being, aside from some option "hedges", I remain patient in highly liquid t-bills earning 5%.


GAMBLE AT YOUR OWN RISK.

https://justdario.com/2024/09/how-the-us-treasury-has-been-actively-contributing-to-inflate-the-stock-bubble-but-now-is-running-out-of-room-to-do-so/

Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway now owns more short-term Treasuries than the Fed.

Berkshire Hathaway held $234.6 billion in short-term US Treasury Bills at the end of the 2nd quarter, according to its latest earnings report

That’s up 81% from the roughly $130 billion it owned at the end of 2023.

Mr. Buffet has always been good at being ahead of what's coming.

TLT / TMF appear to have little downside risk, with good upside potential in this market.

TMF was trading over $450 during the 2020 correction. This time could be higher...

https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=tmf&insttype=&freq=2&show=&time=12

https://x.com/Micro2Macr0/status/1818987788215177527

https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=tmf&insttype=&freq=&show=

I sold at 62… luckily didn’t lose anything… i think now is a decent time to get in if yiu can hold for 6 minths

? What moe selling now

I watched a “meet kevin episode 3 weeks after he said he was buying in around $6ish. Still below MOE. But moe was talking about it first. Just a good example of why not to sink all your money in the first trade.

He called it way to early, you still have a ways to go if you bought when he said he was buying. It will get there but lots of time and money held up for no return

Watch stock moe on YouTube he go me on TMF… so far hes been dead on

Finally, Powel is shifting, cant wait to see the price action when he does a cut.

TMF rocking today… i bought 100k last month….

For a leveraged ETF, this has had a fairly tight trading range over the past 6 months. I'm in at 7.43. Would love to see a steady run to the northeast.

Rates going to back to
zero slowly ..hop on board on pullbacks

TMF, my man in Amsterdam. Will it ever reverse?

Buying more today feels like chasing. What a day.

DOUBLE BOTTOM IN THE LOW $6'S IN OCTOBER AND NOVEMBER ALREADY UP 50%!!!!!

So I'm in at 8.07. Been a good week for sure. Compared to other leveraged ETF's, this one has little volatility. Once it heads in a direction, it consistently moves.

I'm thinking about buying a bunch more . . . FOMO holding me back.

TMF TRADED AT $6.53 TODAY!

Maybe $9.00 is the bottom and it's up from here.

Beautiful bottom in chart. Ready for
$15 then $20 next. Bonds are back!!!

Who else is bidding 20?

TNF


http://schrts.co/BEskfmAf

ART HILL VIDEO ON BEARISH 4 MONTHS




http://schrts.co/rXRewXPS

Use during bearish 4 months JUN JUL AUG SEP

Use TMF when 20 below 200 SMA of SPX

ART HILL says risk off when SPX is risk on.

TMF

http://schrts.co/rXRewXPS

http://www.greenlightadvisor.com/glablog/2009/06/18/hugh-hendry-june-2009-letter

actually I think it will drop a bit further...

here is the slower version of ~TMV~ (~TBT~)...you can see my targets labeled (4c)...not that far away...it is at/around this level that I am thinking to load up on ~TMV~ & ~TBT~...again, this is all just my opinion & I could be dead wrong...the FED can announce that they will buy another trillion in treasuries, so anything can happen...

...btw,(correction) ~TBT~ is actually the 20 year T-bill,but as you can see,they move identically,just different speeds due to 2x vs. 3x...

they can do anything, can't they?

seriously, first 30 days can't short stocks (IPO rule) for retail.

I assume it applies to ETFs as well.

Quick check of the easy short validator here:


http://individuals.interactivebrokers.com/en/trading/ViewShortableStocks.php?key=tmf&cntry=usa&tag=United+States&ib_entity=llc&ln=

Symbol: TMF
Availability: 100
Exchanges: BEX, IDEAL, CSFBALGO, DARK1, JEFFALGO, NITEECN, TMBR, LAVA, TRACKECN, DRCTEDGE, CBSX, EDGEA, ISLAND, ARCA, LEVELATS, MIBSX, ISE

thanks for that answer...I wasnt aware that even commercial were able to short them...just doesnt seem fair...

Well I have never traded options so this does make me worry. I have already bought 130 shares of TMV but may sell and move to TBT if that is a safer bet. For the next few days do yo think that TMV will move higher at all with the sale of the treasurys coming this week?

Thanks again.

because all shares are on borrow programs probably

why cant retail short them???

commercial traders are shorting both of the 3X stocks. all of them

my honest answer to that is no...I say this because I dont think any 3x vehicles are designed for long term holdings because of the way the mathematics works...

...just my opinion,if you wanted to hold long term for your same reasons I would try ~TBT~ instead (2x 30 year T-bill vehicle) instead of ~TMV~...I would hold ~TBT~ as a core and position trade ~TMV~...

...another alternative would be to purchase ~TMV~ shares in 100 increments then sell covered calls as protection...the premiums are high,so your initial basis will be reduced,but again its advanced & your positioning must be precise...


...btw, I think you have the right idea,as I think interest rates will continue to rise...I just want to make sure you realize how dangerous these 3x's are...

...if you pull up the options of ~TMV~ & ~TMF~, youll see that they do have long term options,but if you notice, the strikes are extremely close to the money...its almost like they dont want us to purchase long term options on these ETF's...it really sucks because I wanted to load up on deep out-of-the-money puts on both...like strike-20's on both...

...they wont allow us to do that and they wont allow us to outright short the ETF's...we have to ask ourselves why...I interpret that as a sign to tread very carefully with these trading vehicles...

...this is all my opinion...I wish you luck...

Do you think TMV is a good long term hold? I think it could double from here with higher interest rates.

~$TYX~ monthly

...all 3x/2x Treasury vehicles...

...~10 year~ along with its 3X's...

...another charting view....

~10 year~ vs. ~2 year~

~30 year vs. ~$USD~

~30 year Treasury charts~

yw, I want to be watching these...everyone thinks that ~FAZ~ &~FAS~ are the 3X king vehicle's...for now they are...

...wonder which emerging 3x will take the financial spot light next?

...Ive seen what happens to 3x's when the trade in the 40's and $90's...the way the mathematics works, eventually they both lose...Im considering LEAP puts on both just in case the 3x death spiral happens again (ex: ~FAZ~ / ~FAS~)...

...in the mean I'll day trade in an attempt to reduce my basis...

...in the end I want free LEAP puts on both...

gl, 6979