iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)

News out Iran delivered a **revised proposal** to end the war in Iran via Pakistan, indicating it is still engaged in the negotiation process rather than walking away. $IWM

The Russell 2000 is cosmically overvalued and comically overvalued. We could easily see a drop of more than 60% over the next few months.
U.S. debt is at record levels over $38.3 trillion and getting worse as they inject $2.5 trillion per year of stimulus to try to prop up the current facade. And even this stimulus is insufficient (since most companies are now posting lower net income than prior year) and also unsustainable (because the debt is becoming so large it has become impossible to pay off).
But the excessive debt and stimulative injections are not just a U.S. phenomenon, they are actually a terrible global phenomenon. As of now, total global debt stands at approximately $346 trillion, up $26 trillion in the first nine months of the year alone, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF). Public debt alone hit a record $102 trillion in 2024 (with 2025 figures set to come in even higher), equivalent to more than 100% of global GDP. The whole world economy is terribly stimulative and terribly unbalance and on-track for a massive collapse.

They are saying the Russell 2000 could go down back to the 2016 valuation (from $232 to less than $110). The earnings have not been good. And most of them are overstated because of suppliers investing in customers and customers investing in suppliers and each putting out press releases like it is a great achievement -- generating many more shares -- duping millions along the way.

~bought some 10/31 $267 calls @.05c

$2b dollars worth of ftd??
lol

Golden cross?

Wall Street Turns Strongly Bullish on Silver and Gold Amid Weak Jobs Data and Tariff Uncertainty, Raising Odds of September Rate Cut $IWM

Russell 2000 is way overvalued. We could see it drop from 2,100 to under 800 within the next 12 months. Earnings have been stagnant and now dropping. P/E was already far overvalue and with earnings dropping we will see a strong shrinkage in index valuation. Beware.

Terrible investment period. Essentially all stocks are far overvalued. The S&P 500 CAPE index is about 260% of its intrinsic value. It is 160% overvalued. Stock index values could easily drop more than 60% and still be overvalued. Most companies are current posting lower net income than during the prior year. We are about to see huge collapse.

$IWM either we reclaim 202.7, push for 217, and confirm a reversal...
or we fail here, lose 192, and start a massive measured move down toward 173.

$IWM needs a monthly close above 203 to shift back to bullish structure. Otherwise, IWM could chop or revisit the Fib base at 192. Keep an eye on small-cap relative strength vs SPY and tech to confirm rotation.

Weekly close above 203 or back under 197 will likely dictate May’s path.

$IWM 1M (monthly) chart shows a much weaker structure compared to SPY and QQQ. $IWM topped near $244 (2.0 fib extension) and has been in a clear monthly downtrend

Broke below the 1.414 fib extension ($202–203) > bearish.

Now stuck under $194, fighting to stay above big monthly support ($186–190).

MACD monthly bearish cross already confirmed. Monthly RSI trending down below 50 = bearish momentum. Volume on down months remains elevated ? institutions still selling.

Needs to hold $186 or risk accelerating to $177 ? $172 ? $156

Short-term bounce underway, but unless $202+ is reclaimed, bears still in control longer term

Gold is soaring higher to new records (up from $1,350 per oz prepandemic) to record of over $3,250 and rising faster. [Russell 2000 is overvalued and plummeting further.]

TNA would be a terrible decision while we are in an overvalued market where most companies have been reporting lower net income than prior year. We could easily see TNA drop by 90% (to 10% of current value).

what do we think of iwm? more downside? to what level? also, is there a disadvantage to geting tna instead compared to iwm if long term?

Russell 2000 will likely fall another 60% from here. Most companies have been posting lower net income than prior year. This is just a blip so far, as people pull out money to pay for taxes from capital gains on NVDA, Bitcoin, etc. The significant decline will likely be in May 2025. We have another 60%+ to fall from these hugely overvalued levels. Beware.

KEY REVERSAL WEEK ALERT! 214.60 Low will hold for a rally till eoy imo! Buy!

Theyve actually been pretty spot on most the time .. plus if they bought when they said they did and took profit on the recovery then I'm sure they are doing pretty well... Gotta give credit where it's due... Cheers...! Iwm

Nope, IWM has been down since you posted.
Some Chartmaster! You had the chart upsidedown. :)

"We're skating on ice that's a bit thinner than a lot of people presume," said Michael Darda, chief economist Roth Capital Partners. Increased defaults, higher unemployment, stocks priced for perfection, record debt, fed gov stimulus of $15 trillion in latest 10 years. We will likely see the Russell2000 and Nasdaq drop by 60% and still be overvalued. Dire!

CHARTMASTER TABLE POUNDER TRADE ON IWM!!! Buying Dec calls 225, 265, and 280 calls as I see IWM going to 320 by eoy

Tom Lee says 40% return by end of summer. Dude nailed the S&P 5500 call. I’ll be loading up for next two months. Cheers. I’m thinking 300 IMO.

I'm waiting for the pullback to 210 to load call options, Inflation report last week was tame and Powell will be cutting the fed funds rate soon!

what is your opinion on small caps? room to run more? they do run if interest rates are lower. i am not seeing inflation coming down? so how would interest rates come down? would you buy small caps now?

Consumer prices were 3% higher than a year ago, and core inflation costs were up by 3.3%. Both were beyond the 2% target. This shows that every month, that is 40 months out of 40 most recent months, are all beyond target.
Bad news, all the prior (greater than 25%) cost increases were confirmed and it was confirmed that costs are still going up beyond target. We still have beyond-target inflation and now have most companies reporting lower EPS than prior year.
Stagflation is getting worse. The S&P 500 CAPE which is typically 14-16 is now at the dangerous level of over 36. We could easily see a 60% drop in index valuations. And if earnings keep dropping, we could see a 70% drop or more.

BREAKOUT! I own 10 June calls making a grand per 1.00 move now!

Wow! Big breakout! Own 6 June 205 calls here at 7.66! And just added 4 June 210 calls at 7.00

Breakaway Gapper!!! Weee!!!

It's breaking out this week! My June 210 calls at 6.54 now!

BIG REVERSAL IN THE NEAR FUTURE!!!!!!

YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!!!!!!!!

Here's the breakout I been waiting for! I own 18 of the June 210 calls here!

Nope, she's breaking back above 200 today! target 320 eoy

ITS TIME TO SHORT IWM!!!!!!!!!!!

BIG REVERSAL COMING JUST LIKE BEFORE!!!!!!!!!

IWM is SURGING! My 18 calls are screaming here today! And so much more coming!

ISLAND REVERSAL ALERT!!! Today is an Island Reversal!!! and PPS right back to pre inflation report!

Added 5 June 210 calls today! target 320 by eoy

IWM $195.54 -7.42 (-3.66%)... OUCH!!!!!!!

Gaining wings and breaking out today!!! now 203

IWM $191.89 -2.52 (-1.30%)

.... GOING DOWN!!!!!!

IWM TRADING AT DECEMBER, 2020 LEVELS.......

KEY REVERSAL DAY ALERT! 192.26 LOD will not be seen again here imo!

Bought 4 March 200 calls here today! target 320 by eoy, now 194.35

eari, 0.0006 and 0.0007 near all time low of 0.0005 just traded a couple days ago. Low SS structure of 425 mm OS. Obviously dilution pushed this down.

Bought 2 March 205 calls at 7.80 today!

Hot Trade! Buy March 200 calls at 4.55

IWM or, as Jeremy Grantham characterized as them as flaky money losing Russell 2000
Stocks
Will the bull market continue to take the IWM to 52 week high

Exiting iwm will watch for pullbacks

Russel up up and away

Markets getting wiped out tomorrow buckle up $IWM

Holy ftd's batman