Applovin Corporation (APP) オプション

At times it feels too easy to be very comfortable with this investment.  The one worry I have is since they are so concentrated now in advertising, that if a recession shows up ad spending can easily be cut by companies.  

Thx. Nice to see APP stable even tho market is down .
The only thing I've added today was AMZN . AMZN is by far my largest position and have owned over a decade .
I just add to it on major market meltdowns like we're seeing now ...as our president drives the economy over a cliff in his dumb trade war disputes .
Good luck
Kiwi

Interesting. A post on ST showing the first page of an BofA analyst report on APP:

https://stocktwits.com/DonCorleone77/message/607880691

Appreciate your thoughts.  2 corrections to my post.  First, my first purchase was not 268 but 280. Secondly, the correct word for my state today is not nervous or jumpy but shellshocked and you know why.  

Would be lovely to know if we have seen a medium term bottom this week with APP.  Makes it a little more comfortable holding a little longer before jumping ship.  Sort of the same situation with my other buys this week: PLTR and MU.  I am a little more comfortable with MU.  

Well those were great buys . My oldest son works for a media buying / ad tech agency . So have some familiarity on what they are doing . They are vague on their " secret sauce " ...which is the marketing data they have on all their game program sales / clients ...and how they use AI to use that for marketing .
Somewhat similar to how marketing info is extracted from Reddit .
So I'm willing to give it some space
Q1 earnings will be a "tell "
They have to maintain the $1b + annualized rev run rate they achieved in Dec .
JMO
Kiwi

Congrats on those great buys.  My first bit bought at 268 and then 246 Monday. A little nervous or better to say jumpy so I probably will take profits too early.  

I don't any way over the next say 2 years being able to extract at my Amarin target prior to today.  Stock would have to go to at least $80 after split.  So will have to think and look for a good opportunity not only to unload but somewhere to place those proceeds. 

Bt some APP at $238 and $264 over past wk . Posting here for the record to see if I face plant on this .
Kiwi

$APP: BofA reiterates Buy + top pick, seeing its strategic position paralleling Meta, TikTok, and Google after meetings with CEO (recall mgmt on road this week and next)

BofA says $APP's moat is its proprietary training data with $10bn+ sunk costs deterring Big Tech entry. Following CEO meetings, BofA views the recent market pullback as an opportunity to acquire a secular grower at steep discount (16x EV/CY26 EBITDA for >50% 2-year EBITDA CAGR). BofA believes $APP's endgame is establishing a large Axon Pixel footprint across millions of eCommerce sites to attribute potentially $100bn of consumer spend to mobile game ads. Unlike LLM builders using open-source data, APP's competitive edge comes from proprietary auction data that improves its predictive models, contends BofA. BofA maintains $580 price objective (35x EV/CY26E EBITDA), expecting $APP to more than double EBITDA by CY26.

---------------------
Sorry about AMRN . I never own a Co when the CFO leaves to pursue other opportunities .

Kiwi

Take it easy. Apparently colds and the flu have been bad this year.  Not sure Trump even knows what he is doing.  Just wants to keep himself in the news.  Doubt this can continue for 4 years. 

RMB. Been out of action with a pretty severe cold .
Trump seems determined to send this economy over a cliff with his tariff war
I'm about 35-40% in cash so will sit this out , but may add a little APP in the low $240's or lower.
Kiwi

Kiwi did you see where the short seller who called out APP actually contacted S&P to urge them not to include APP?

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/07/applovin-short-seller-urges-sp-500-committee-to-exclude-stock.html

Well disappointing they weren't added in the S&P rebalancing .
Thoughts from Grok
, short-seller reports from firms like Fuzzy Panda Research and Culper Research, which emerged in early 2025 (though after the December decision), alleged fraudulent practices in AppLovin’s ad-tech business, particularly its AXON software. While these reports likely did not directly influence the December 2024 rebalancing, they reflect pre-existing skepticism about AppLovin’s business model that may have been shared by the committee. Fuzzy Panda later urged the committee in a March 4, 2025, letter to exclude AppLovin from the next rebalancing (expected March 2025), citing these concerns.
If similar doubts were present earlier, they could have impacted the committee’s view of AppLovin’s long-term stability, a key consideration beyond raw financial metrics.
Another possibility is that the committee saw AppLovin’s valuation as overstretched—trading at 104 times earnings in late 2024—potentially signaling risk despite its growth. In contrast, Workday, added in December, had a lower market cap but a more established track record in cloud software, possibly aligning better with the index’s “gold standard” as described by critics like Fuzzy Panda.

Ultimately, the S&P 500 rebalancing decisions are discretionary and opaque, balancing objective criteria with subjective judgment. AppLovin’s exclusion likely stemmed from a combination of these factors—sector representation, perceived risk, or timing—rather than a single definitive reason.


So they may need to deploy that funded share buyback program next week . Q1 earning report at least 6 wks away .
Their advertising rev exploded in Q4 ...but recent signs of consumer pull back may pressure that this Qt.

I'm not trading it unless theres a crash to near $200..... where I may buy some more .
I'll wait for Q1 earnings before I sell any
JMO
Kiwi

Yep, I see back down to 258 in after-hours

Well we are about to find out re S&P inclusion
https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20250307214/an-sp-500-reshuffle-is-coming-these-are-the-top-candidates-to-join-the-index

Update ,,,apparently didn't make it !!!

Kiwi

You beat me to the punch.  Quite oversold. 

Found it
On March 5th, Arete analyst David Mak downgraded the stock to “Sell” from Neutral with a $200 price target. According to the firm, there are risks to AppLovin’s ecommerce growth story.
The company is “failing to provide compelling” return on ad spend at scale across typically low quality, long-tail mobile gaming ad inventory.
The firm’s prior bull case has been priced into the stock, and consensus estimates “now appear too high on any reasonable view”.

Re his comment " failing to provide compelling return on ad spend " ....so far advertisers have been increasing their spend ..IIRC from last note from Ceo ...at a Dec run rate annualized at $1B

Agree its speculative but the Ceo and team are the cutting edge in Palo Alto ...So I'm betting they will find a way to make it work
JMO
Kiwi
PS. APP is technically ( one yr RSI etc ) very over sold ...just need a catalyst ( S & P inclusion ? ) to turn this around

I haven't seen Arete's sell note ..can U link it . They were negative on Unity .
Several issues at present IMHO
1) will they be included in the S &P index .....apparently notification after close today
2) Large insider sell by insider Chen ...he exercised 200,000 options and sold them from what I can tell ...so not really his core position ...just the options he could exercise.
3) Deal to sell their gaming unit . With all this volatility maybe that deal is at risk or needs to be repriced ...dont know.
4) Stop loss cascades .

My last purchase was at $262 . I'm just going to try and sit this out for awhile .
It's a very speculative position based on my belief that the Ceo and team will execute their AI driven marketing platform in a way that gives advertisers an edge over Meta's applications.
Its only about 5% of my portfolio
Kiwi

You think it is the sell recommendation by Arete with a $200 target that is the main driver of this drop?

$262 hate to buy falling knives but brought back a small amount
NOT investment advice
Kiwi

I was stopped out of half my position once it went thru $279.

Wednesday, February 26, 2025 10:27:02 AM
Post# of 51
Co ordinated short report ....buying at these levels $308 ...posted here to see how this decision ages :--)

The potential negatives that I'm aware of ....mainly that there might be a delay / renegotiation on their deal to sell their gaming unit . This is just speculation on my part ...but this recent short attack might be used by the buyers of the gaming unit to try and negotiate a better price / terms .
Getting included in the S & P rebalancing I thought was a long shot .
Theres also a huge assault underway on all popular momo / retail stocks ...APP, PLTR , VST ( all of which I own ;--( ) ...basically to get retail to capitulate / stopped out etc .
So times like this I just step aside until the dust settles .
JMO
Good luck
Kiwi

I see some commentary now that the BB news was to try to deflect from these lawsuits. Hope they are buying soon. 

https://www.investing.com/news/sec-filings/applovin-boosts-share-buyback-program-by-500-million-93CH-3900927

The company’s Board of Directors has authorized an immediate availability of $500 million for the repurchase of its Class A common stock,...after Fridays close

More detail
On February 28, 2025, the Company’s Board of Directors authorized the modification of the share repurchase program as follows:

(i) $500 million shall be immediately available for repurchase of shares of the Company’s Class A common stock (the “Current Limit”), notwithstanding the amount that otherwise would have remained available during the quarter under the prior Free Cash Flow limitation, and

(ii) the Current Limit shall be increased in future quarters by the amount of Free Cash Flow generated in the preceding fiscal quarter, with the Current Limit and any increases to be carried forward and remain available for future repurchases if not used and the aggregate amount that may be repurchased not to exceed the Existing Repurchase Maximum Amount.

The modifications do not change the Existing Repurchase Maximum Amount.


Kiwi

From X. AppLovin Corp has found itself at the center of Wall Street’s latest battleground after short sellers Fuzzy Panda and Culper Research released reports questioning the company’s business practices. The fallout was swift, with shares plunging 12% on Wednesday and continuing to slide into Thursday. However, major analysts are calling this a golden buying opportunity, arguing that the short reports lack substance and that AppLovin remains a dominant force in digital advertising.

Wall Street Rallies Behind AppLovin
Despite the stock’s decline, prominent Wall Street analysts remain unfazed. Many are doubling down on their bullish stance, emphasizing that the selloff is exaggerated. AppLovin still boasts 20 buy ratings, seven holds, and zero sell ratings, according to Bloomberg data. Piper Sandler analysts, led by James Callahan, reiterated their confidence, maintaining an overweight rating with a $575 price target.

The analysts argue that AppLovin’s clientele consists of some of the most sophisticated digital advertisers in the industry. If there were fraudulent activity, clients would have detected it through their own attribution and incrementality testing. The market overreaction, they believe, presents an opportunity for investors to buy in at a significant discount.

Jefferies analysts echoed this sentiment, dismissing the claims in the short reports as weak and, in many instances, inaccurate. They maintained their buy rating and set an even more aggressive price target of $600. Their argument is straightforward—AppLovin’s success comes from its ability to generate measurable revenue for its clients. If the company were engaging in fraudulent click and download schemes, it would have already faced legal repercussions.

Bank of America Stays Firm on Its Top Pick
Bank of America analysts, led by Omar Dessouky, reaffirmed their bullish stance on AppLovin, calling it their top pick. They pointed to several near-term catalysts that could drive the stock higher, including an eCommerce ramp-up and a valuation that now looks extremely attractive following the selloff.

Dessouky argued that any skepticism surrounding AppLovin is more about the complexity of mobile adtech rather than fundamental issues with the company. Over time, he expects this complexity-driven discount to disappear as investors become more familiar with the mechanics of digital advertising auctions. Maintaining a buy rating, Bank of America set a $580 price target, emphasizing that the current price drop presents a compelling entry point for long-term investors.

The Role of Buybacks and Upcoming Financial Reports
AppLovin’s aggressive share repurchase program further solidifies the bulls’ case. In 2024 alone, the company bought back $1 billion worth of its own shares, a move that analysts at Citi Research view as a strong signal of internal confidence.

Citi analysts are also keeping a close eye on AppLovin’s upcoming 10-K filing. If the company’s financial disclosures remain unchanged from previous years, it would suggest that the short sellers’ accusations hold little weight. The timing of the short reports, just as AppLovin was coming off a record-breaking 700% gain in 2024, raises questions about the motives behind them.

Fundamentals vs. Fear: What’s Next for AppLovin?
William Blair analyst Ralph Schackart sees the situation as a classic case of fundamentals versus fear. If AppLovin’s business model were fraudulent, as alleged, it would have likely faced legal action from advertisers or regulators long before now. Instead, the company has consistently reported strong earnings and revenue growth.

Schackart believes that while the debate over AppLovin will rage on in the short term, the company’s long-term fundamentals will ultimately dictate its trajectory. The real test will come with its next earnings report. If AppLovin continues to beat expectations, as it has done in the past, it could trigger a sharp rebound in share price.

Final Thoughts
The selloff in AppLovin stock may have rattled investors, but Wall Street’s confidence remains unwavering. With top analysts reaffirming their buy ratings and pointing to strong fundamentals, the dip appears to be a temporary blip rather than a red flag. The combination of upcoming financial disclosures, continued revenue growth, and strategic buybacks suggests that AppLovin is still in a strong position. For investors with a long-term horizon, this may well be the buying opportunity they’ve been waiting for.


Kiwi

FWIW..... Barrons reporting several analysts calling this sell off a buying op .
Price targets in the $500's within a yr .
Lot will depend on next ER ....is the $1B E commerce analyzed run rate rev just reported in Dec , sustainable .
Kiwi

Yep, price bounced back very, very quickly when it dipped under 300.  Saw an article written on Feb 18 saying the stock was overvalued.  But on Feb 18 stock was $500.  In the low 300's it is a different story. Great blowout earnings a couple of weeks ago.  

As far as the cracks (thanks for your offer by the way but getting done under warranty) it is in corners and joints at opposite ends of where the ceiling transitions from 9 ft to 12 ft.  I think there is a very long beam that runs from one side to the other that is probably 23' long.  Guess there is a big load there.  We have over the past year heard loud bangs that we could never identify but I guess it is the house settling and the joints cracking at those critical spots.  House is built on a crawl space.  When a kid, lived in house with basement, then 45 years in Fl in homes built on monolithic slabs, and now crawl space so the whole gamut. 

Well if you lived nearby I'd help you out with the drywall ...usually just cosmetic . In new houses if the 2x4's used to frame the walls are wet ..or get wet ( its usually "green ' ) as they dry out ...particularly after the home being heated in the winter ..the 2x4 framing warps slightly causing cracks in the taping joints .
Pretty common for new homes .
Bigger concern would be if theres any settlement in the foundation ...that you would notice more in the corners of the house as opposed to interior partition walls.
Exterior wall framing might be 2x6 which allows for thicker insulation . Interior wall , usually 2x4

Re APP. My oldest son works for an Adtech Co based near Applovin. Said the short report was misleading . The " violations " they cite are common practice and not really violations ....as example ..you have to agree to accept app downloads etc ...they just dont automatically force them on .
Besides their game app business is in the process of being sold .
The bet is on their new AI enhanced eCommerce business...with the Dec run rate annualized of $1B.

These are early days for their E commerce effort and wether or not they can eat into Facebook / Meta's dominance in this area

Huge correction from recent high .
I was buying at $308

Kiwi

A really great buying opp if you were buying under 300.  I had put this on my radar as it was retrenching from having hit 500 but missed grabbing any today.  Worried that there may not be another chance to grab any under 300 anymore.  Was waiting for some div stocks but I guess a lost opp.  Tomorrow drywallers coming as there has been some cracking in my 1 1/2 year old new home.  Outside of the pitiful warranty but I guess I shamed the builder enough that they are going to repair.  Probably will re-occur in a few months as this was repaired once already 7 months ago.  Will let you know if I am able to dip my toes into APP.  Now that everyone has read that the short attack was not well reasoned, this probably shoots back up. 

apologies ..double post .
Well timed short attack to coincide with Form 4 filings where the principals are selling very small %'s of their over all holdings, following the recent huge run up
Great buying op as a spec on their E commerce rollout ...in its early stages
Kiwi

https://www.applovin.com/blog/note-from-our-ceo/

Annual run rate of $1B in Dec !!

Kiwi

From X

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FundamentalBottom
@FundaBottom
$APP Responding to these two short reports—actually, we analyzed these issues several months ago. The two key points were that Applovin is accused of exfiltrating META data and that Applovin is engaging in backend direct download activities.

Regarding the data exfiltration claim, Applovin has already issued a response.
AppLovin: Two short seller reports from Fuzzy Panda and Culper. Notes it has been told AppLovin stealing data from Meta in their e-commerce push. WFC analyst said he spoke to APP, they fully refuted META point, said they have an agreement with meta and Meta can audit them whenever they want.
Based on my previous research, Applovin offers a streamlined SDK that facilitates advertisers in transmitting data back; because the data belongs to the advertisers, META really has no means to block it.

As for backend downloads, almost all smartphone OEM use this approach, and Applovin is a client of these OEMs. Your app has undoubtedly been directly downloaded from other OEM as well. If there's a problem, then the responsibility should lie with the OEMs to ban this ad service.

Co ordinated short report ....buying at these levels $308 ...posted here to see how this decision ages :--)
Kiwi

Plan insider sell by chief marketing officer ..may have contributed to this sell off. Not sure of amount to be sold
https://www.applovin.com/leadership/katie-jansen/

Kiwi

Citigroup analyst Jason Bazinet maintains AppLovin ( APP ) with a Buy and raises the price target from $460 to $600.

Kiwi

Piper Sandler Maintains Overweight on AppLovin, Raises Price Target to $575

Kiwi

Wow ...trading close to $500 after this was announced
$APP to sell off its mobile gaming business for $900M.
Kiwi

Great earnings report. Credit to Joe T on CNBC for alerting me to this Co.... when it was around $80 a share
Kiwi

Mentioned on CNBC today
Huge upgrade by Wedbush
ER after the close 2/12
Kiwi

APP

APP

AppLovin Corporation $APP Total Debt (mrq) $3.51B Book Value $2.80

Note to myself ...added at $320 ...weither I face plant on this or not ...yet to be determined
Kiwi

Huge insider sell by CFO and Ceo ...some options related .
Hopefully they are done with that and the PPS will recover as per Oppy's " but the dip " view .
I guess we will know in the fullness of time
Kiwi

Oppy says buy this pullback ...target is still $480

Still believe in the Co ...altho obviously over hyped recently . Very strong growth rate but with what was a very high PE
CEO presenting tomorrow
Will probably add at $310 if it gets to that level .
Posting this for the record ....to see if I face plant on this
Kiwi

APP, new 52 week high

These guys may be better then Meta as a e commerce / marketing app ...At least thats what I'm picking up from people in the media buying / marketing App biz
If so ...they are just getting started ...huge market
Kiwi

And there it is ...trading at $400 a share
Kiwi

New $400 PT ...E commerce part of Co just starting ...Piper Sandler
Biggest mistake I've made recently was selling some of this when it hit $110
Second biggest mistake ...assigning my remaining shares to my teenage son. ...at $110. :---)
Kiwi

APP, new 52/high

Negative analysis from SA and very over bought based on RSI readings ...despite this Citi comes out with a roughly $330 PT
Raised my stops
Kiwi