By Trefor Moss
SHANGHAI--A Chinese prototype jetliner is set to make its maiden
flight early this year, in what the country hopes to be a big step
toward realizing its ambition to rival Boeing Co. and Airbus Group
in commercial aviation's big-leagues.
But as an example of China's aviation prowess, the C919 is an
imperfect candidate: a look under its hood underscores the
fundamental role played by U.S. and European firms in helping China
realize its airplane dream.
It bristles with technology from elsewhere, such as General
Electric, Honeywell International Inc. and other U.S. suppliers.
The C919's engines are built by CFM, a joint venture of the U.S.'s
General Electric and France's Safran SA Honeywell, Rockwell Collins
Inc. and other American aerospace majors supplied many of its
critical systems--everything from radars to flight controls to the
plane's lights and landing gear.
While it isn't China's first passenger jet, the flight of the
C919 will be a landmark moment in China's decades-old dream of
making a large homegrown jetliner in the single-aisle class, the
mainstay of short-haul air travel.
Developed by the state-owned China Aircraft Corp. of China, or
Comac, the 158-seat plane is years behind schedule, but began
ground trials in Shanghai last month ahead of flight tests expected
by the end of March.
China's stated strategic goal is to free itself from its costly
dependency on foreign jetliners built by Boeing and Airbus. Foreign
analysts differ over whether that goal is realistic. Most agree,
however, that the C919--though a big advance on the smaller jets
China has built before--won't be the aircraft that breaks the
foreign stranglehold.
"It's 15 years behind," said Derek Levine, the author of "The
Dragon Takes Flight", a study of China's aerospace sector--"an
antiquated plane that can't compete with Airbus and Boeing."
The endeavor arguably owes more to nationalism than commercial
intent. "Without the ability to build aircraft like the C919, it
will be hard for China to establish its image as a great country,"
said Zhou Jisheng, a retired engineer who designed Comac's ARJ21, a
twin-engine regional jet seating up to 105 passengers that last
year became the first Chinese jet to enter commercial service.
Comac has spent an estimated $8.6 billion developing the C919,
and is unlikely to recoup its investment, according to industry
analysts. It declined to comment.
Comac has previously said it would build 2,300 jets over the
next two decades. Aviation experts say there won't be nearly that
much demand, and estimate production will more likely be a few
hundred copies for state-owned Chinese airlines.
Teal Group Corp., a U.S. aviation intelligence company,
forecasts that Comac will only have delivered 66 C919s by
2036--fewer even than other new entrants such as Canada's
Bombardier Inc.
The global single-aisle market is shared more or less evenly by
Boeing's 737 and Airbus's A320 families. These jets typically carry
130-200 passengers on flights of one to four hours.
Chinese airlines and lessors have bought about 2,000 of these
jets, and will likely buy thousands more, with Boeing forecasting
that by 2035 China will spend $1 trillion on new airliners,
including over 5,000 single-aisle planes, to satisfy its burgeoning
demand for air travel.
With a fifth of Boeing's future sales set to come from China,
President Donald Trump's threat to slap hefty tariffs on Chinese
imports represents potentially serious turbulence for the U.S.'s
largest exporter, which claims China sales directly support 100,000
American jobs.
China's possible response to such tariffs, state media has said,
would be to tear up orders for Boeing planes--though that, in turn,
could impact jobs in China. Factories there are critical links in
Boeing's global supply chain, feeding the company's final-assembly
plants in Washington state with sections of the 737 and of the new
787 Dreamliner.
As Beijing requires, foreign participants have worked on the
C919 in conjunction with Chinese joint venture partners.
Even if considered a potential rival to Boeing, the C919 is for
dozens of other American companies a welcome inroad into the
Chinese market, said Geoffrey Jackson, executive-director of the
U.S.-China Aviation Cooperation Program, a Beijing-based body
created by the U.S. government and aerospace companies.
The aircraft symbolizes the interdependency of the U.S. and
Chinese aerospace industries at a time when U.S.-China trade is in
the spotlight, analysts say.
While such collaboration inevitably teaches China about the
technology brought by the foreign partner, American companies
protect future sales by providing systems which are less than
cutting-edge, said Richard Aboulafia, vice president of Teal Group
Corp., an aviation intelligence company. They gamble that they can
innovate faster than their Chinese partners are able to close the
gap.
The C919 won't be in the hands of its first customer,
state-owned China Eastern Airlines, for several more years--and
faces a battle for orders against better known rivals.
Mr. Zhou, the Chinese engineer, asserted that the capability gap
between Comac and Boeing is smaller than many people realize. But
"the gap in reputation," he said, "is huge."
Junya Qian contributed to this article.
Write to Trefor Moss at Trefor.Moss@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
January 30, 2017 04:48 ET (09:48 GMT)
Copyright (c) 2017 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
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