When To Be Bearish On Bitcoin? On-Chain Analyst Answers
2024年8月17日 - 7:00AM
NEWSBTC
An on-chain analyst has explained signals in several metrics to see
if Bitcoin is in a bearish phase. These Bitcoin Indicators Could Be
To Follow For Bear Market Signals In a new post on X, on-chain
analyst Checkmate replied to a user asking about an on-chain metric
indicating when it’s time to turn bearish on cryptocurrency.
Checkmate has shared two indicators: the Short-Term Holder Realized
Profit/Loss Momentum and the Short-Term Holder MVRV Ratio Momentum.
“Short-Term Holders” (STHs) here refer to the Bitcoin investors who
bought their coins within the past 155 days, meaning that both of
these metrics are only for the recent buyers in the market. Related
Reading: Bitcoin Observes Pullback To $58,000: Is This The Cause?
First, the “Realized Profit/Loss Momentum” measures, as its name
suggests, the momentum in the ratio of the profit and loss that the
STHs are realizing through their selling. Below is the chart for
the indicator posted by the analyst. According to the analyst, it
is time to be bearish when the oscillator on the bottom of this
chart turns red (corresponding to negative momentum in the STH
Realized Profit/Loss). The graph shows that this oscillator assumed
negative values soon after the price set its new all-time high
(ATH) and has since remained in the region. And indeed, while the
indicator has seen these values, Bitcoin has been going through a
rough phase. The STH MVRV Ratio Momentum’s second indicator works
similarly and keeps track of the distance between the Market Value
to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio for this cohort and its 155-day
moving average (MA). The MVRV Ratio is a popular indicator that
tells us how the value held by the investors (the market cap)
compares against what they used to purchase their coins (the
Realized Cap). In other words, the metric provides information
about the unrealized profit/loss of the holders. Thus, whereas the
Realized Profit/Loss keeps track of the net profit/loss the
investors are harvesting through their selling, this metric tells
us about the profit/loss they have yet to take. Related Reading:
This Is The On-Chain Level That Made The Bitcoin Crash Bottom Here
is the data for the momentum indicator for the MVRV Ratio
specifically for the STHs: According to the analyst, just like with
the first indicator, this one also gives a bearish signal when the
momentum turns red. As the chart shows, the STH MVRV Ratio has been
under its 155-day MA for the same period as the bearish momentum in
the Realized Profit/Loss, thus providing confluence to the signal.
BTC Price Bitcoin had pushed towards $62,000 earlier in the week,
but the asset has since slipped up as it’s now back at $57,800.
Featured image from Dall-E, checkonchain.com, chart from
TradingView.com
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