Imperial Petroleum Inc (IMPP) オプション

Earnings were soft and revenues declined quarter over quarter due to weakness in rates. Cash is $207 million but they need to pay $14 mil in May for one vessel and if memory serves me correctly they have contracted to acquire seven Japanese built drybulk carriers, aggregating approximately 443,000 dwt, which are expected to be delivered to us between January 2025 and May 2025.


Price hit 2.55 this morning before recovering. Me thinks this would be low water point for the stock. But who knows with Greek shippers!

Right back down near the 2.80 support level that it has bounced off twice in recent months. Usually third time is the charm to break below. We shall see. Shipping stocks have been hammered for awhile with lower contract prices. They are still making money but market is looking 3-6 months ahead.

IMPP..........................https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IMPP&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p86431144783

Very likely company has been buying shares from the mid
2.80 area.   Why tell anybody if you buy shares under $3?    Especially if you have a bunch of cash that is burning a hole in your pocket.

Second test of $2.80 level is occurring right now. Time will tell.

Bounced right at $2.80 support level. Would need to see a second test and hold to confirm imo.

IMPP...$3.06s clearing here...Reversal Candle...🥳

georgie18

Member Level
Re: None

Tuesday, December 03, 2024 3:58:36 PM

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IMPP...$2.99...Scaling in here...🥳https://schrts.co/qvnfhRXD ...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/imperial-petroleum-inc-impp-q3-070026557.html

Release Date: December 02, 2024

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points
Imperial Petroleum Inc (NASDAQ:IMPP) achieved a profit of close to $11 million in Q3 2024 despite a challenging market environment.

The company reported a significant improvement in profitability, with adjusted net income increasing by 142% compared to Q3 2023.

Imperial Petroleum Inc (NASDAQ:IMPP) maintains a strong liquidity position with approximately $200 million in cash and zero debt.

The company generated $68 million in operating cash flow for the nine months of 2024, showcasing robust cash flow generation.

Imperial Petroleum Inc (NASDAQ:IMPP) has a flexible capital structure with high liquidity and minimal liabilities, positioning it well to weather market conditions.

Just to be accurate the Q&A from that transcript was not from analysts or investors asking the questions.  It was an AI version of statements made by the company and made into a Q&A format by the author.

IMPP...$2.99...Scaling in here...🥳https://schrts.co/qvnfhRXD ...

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/imperial-petroleum-inc-impp-q3-070026557.html

Release Date: December 02, 2024

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points
Imperial Petroleum Inc (NASDAQ:IMPP) achieved a profit of close to $11 million in Q3 2024 despite a challenging market environment.

The company reported a significant improvement in profitability, with adjusted net income increasing by 142% compared to Q3 2023.

Imperial Petroleum Inc (NASDAQ:IMPP) maintains a strong liquidity position with approximately $200 million in cash and zero debt.

The company generated $68 million in operating cash flow for the nine months of 2024, showcasing robust cash flow generation.

Imperial Petroleum Inc (NASDAQ:IMPP) has a flexible capital structure with high liquidity and minimal liabilities, positioning it well to weather market conditions.

Dead cat bounce today and then move lower later this week?

I'm wonder how many folks added to their positions when the stock broke below 3 just because it was an opportunity to "buy shares in the 2's" and maybe will start rethinking that purchase. Lest you forget the stock was 1.70 about a year ago.   Have shareholders felt all the pain downward so far?  It better hold $2.82 as I think that is the last remaining support level before it free falls to $2.50, then $2.10.

Once again, no Q&A after the presentation.

"Thank you and goodnight"!

Earnings were just ok. Utilization was only 65%, as Harry "forgot" to tell his investors that one ship was idle all quarter due to a "minor" repair.

Even with close to $200 mil cash, that amount will go way down with upcoming purchase of 8 vessels for around $130 mil and the softening of spot rates in the tanker market.

No mention of stock buybacks in conference call.

This stock will likely go under $3.   Doesn't matter if P/E is under 2.  Currently a value trap in an industry known for deceiving investors. 

Earnings for period ending Sept 30 will be released before the market opens on 12/2.

I sold 5k IMPP in the $3.70s and CISS I dumped a month or two ago.

No time for either one of those anymore

Expect to see a washout of this stock below $3.50 as long time holders start to bail.   Institutional holder Hudson Bay has already reduced holdings to zero. 

Almost feels like Harry is thinking about doing another offering to raise even more cash. Perhaps at $3?

MM’s tried a head fake this morning pushing price up to $3.80 where it was met with significant selling.

Me thinks the 200 DMA of $3.64 is in jeopardy of falling.

Broke below 3.80 intraday on volume. Does support line turn into resistance line?

4th test of the $3.80 support level.

The classic short squeeze spike and reversal. If stock doesn’t hold 4, then likely to test 3.80 again, perhaps even $3.50.

Realization that new ship purchases are for lower daily rate vessels and thus potentially lower margins.

Looking good from the lower left to the upper right.  All eyes are on that upper trend line $4.45/$4.50 resistance

What I find interesting is the amount of sellers in the $3.80 -$4.30 range. If the future looks so bright why all the selling? Perhaps it’s just nervous retail looking for the next hot sector. Less than 8% institutional holding.

The real play here should be the company buying back its own stock. The real fear is that if it happens, the company will do another offering at higher prices because it just can’t help itself.

Shares Outstanding 29.81M
Shares Float 17.39M
Short Float 16.57%
Short Interest 2.88M

https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=IMPP&p=d

Making nice reversal up to 4.25 area.

Decent volume today at least.

Looking forward to the chart continuing to make a series of higher lows as institutions begin to take notice

Clearly this isn't retail

Analyst Tate Sullivan of Maxim Group maintained a Buy rating on Imperial Petroleum, Inc. (IMPP – Research Report), retaining the price target of $8.00.
Tate Sullivan has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors involving Imperial Petroleum, Inc.’s strategic acquisition and favorable market dynamics. The analyst has raised estimates following the company’s announcement of acquiring seven dry bulk ships, which aligns closely with its cash and equivalents balance, signifying a strong liquidity position. Furthermore, Imperial Petroleum’s advantageous payment terms for the ships and the anticipated interest income prior to payment underscore the company’s financial prudence. Sullivan also acknowledges the company’s robust cash flow projections and absence of debt, reducing the likelihood of requiring additional capital.

Additionally, Tate Sullivan’s optimism is reflected in the increased revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025, suggesting substantial year-over-year growth. This is despite a conservative adjustment in time charter equivalent (TCE) rates for some vessels. The analyst also factors in the broader market outlook, including global economic growth projections and sector-specific trends that could boost tanker rates, as well as limited supply growth due to the extended lead time for new ship deliveries. These combined elements contribute to Sullivan’s conviction in maintaining a Buy rating and an $8.00 price target, representing significant upside from the current trading level based on the forecasted book value per share.

If today’s charts are accurate , there was a third test (and bounce) off the $3.80 mark. Of course the question is “why so much selling of a company that is supposedly generating so much cash”?

$IMPP Seeking Alpha Piece

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4722937-imperial-petroleum-from-a-dilution-machine-to-a-potential-nav-convergence-opportunity

With HV it feels very much like doing transactions with a used car dealer. He buys $10 million ships from himself and sells them at a premium to IMPP shareholders for $13 million.

This creates the discount to NAV.

Took 155k shares to bring it to the $3.80 level but only 15k shares to bring it back to $3.93 where it has been churning for the last 15 minutes.

Need to watch for a second test of $3.80. Shareholders think the stock is cheap but the intercompany games that HV plays is the real driver of why analysts are hesitant about recommending this company.

I think Harry’s goal all along is to use the cash to build his fleet, which means buying more tankers from his own family, allowing him to repeat/rinse skimming broker fees off the top and delaying payment for one year.

It’s worked for him (and his family) in the past, not so much for shareholders. Buyback of stock is not in the cards just yet.

At some point when the fleet gets above 25-30 ships, this may be a good investment. Also at some point older ships will be sold to CISS at a premium causing more dilution for that ticket until HV creates yet another public company that CISS can sell ships to.

All assuming that ship spot market prices per day remain stable.

Heavy selling going on this morning in the first 15 minutes….about 1/2 of it avg daily trading volume so far.

3.83 prints as I’m typing. Still expect it to fall below $3.50.

Will see what the rest of the day looks like.

It's pretty incredible we are still trading in the low single digits

Excellent back n forth discussion today@ the other place

Exactly....too bad there's no real discussion about this and zero institutional interest

Retracements down to the sub $4 level really test the patience of most - especially on low volume.  

Guess Harry Vafias doesn't consider $IMPP's share price low enough to perform share buy-backs.

One would think that a man with his such elevated level of narcissism would want to boast about the performance of the underlying stock of Imperial Petroleum, surpassing the $5 level in heading into double digits 

Quite perplexing to say the least

Looks like a second test of the 4.00 level is incoming.

Looking forward to institutions catching on

I also expect the X crowd to defend it at 4.

I totally expect to see washout volume in this ticker over the coming weeks. Message board sentiment is too bullish thinking they have an undervalued gem and imo, many will start bailing and the price declines. That is where the buy point happens….perhaps below $3.50 .

We know for sure that they will buy ships with that $190 mil in cash so I wouldn’t get too excited about that.

Historically, for maritime stocks, NAV is always at a massive discount to market value. Firms have written papers about this.

Public was burned many times over by DryShips and unfortunately their reputation has defined Greek shippers ever since.

Can this change? Retail will pump anything. Institutions are greedy too but cautious. Less than 7% ownership. Volume before price.

I have to say, the chart is certainly shaping up for a breakout through the $4.50 resistance area 

Imperial Petroleum, with nearly $190,000,000 in cash and a NAV north of $15 a share, it's just stupidly undervalued here. Clearly institutions must have this on their radar screen.

Volume increase will tell the tale..

Decent convo on twits

Thought I'd share

It’s an easy question to answer. Harry doesn’t want anybody asking him about the details of the intercompany transactions. All the ships are originally purchased by Harry thru his affiliated companies and the them sold to either IMPP, CISS , or GASS. For each transaction Harry and family are getting a transaction fee, some of which is disclosed and some that we just are not sure of.

Why the need for Harry to skim some fees off each sale? Dont know but most of the Greek shippers do it. The less questions that can be asked mean the less questions that HAVE to be answered. He doesn’t want an analyst demanding him to pay a higher dividend or buy back shares. Harry knows how to play the game. The stock is used as currency to raise capital. He is more likely to pay a higher dividend on the preferred shares since that is the class he owns.

Remember he is not selling ships to unaffiliated parties, he is selling them to himself (as controlling shareholder of the buyer).

CISS is the big loser in all this, until he creates another company that C3 will sell ships to.

My guess is that most of the short position is owed by hedge funds who have lent Harry money in the past thru debt financing to purchase ships. If you want burn those guys and squeeze them he easily can but then needs to find a new group of funds when money becomes tight again due to changing market conditions.

Harry needs all the cash in reserve that he has accumulated in order to purchase more ships. Once the fleet gets to be double the current size and all else remains the same then perhaps the share price begins to trend towards the double digits.

Think one should accumulate shares on dips and hold for several years. A crash in spot market prices for
a period beyond a few months is one the only things that can upset the revenue side for IMPP (except for a ship seizure or ship sinking).

I have never, nor will I ever receive a response from Imperial Petroleum. They don't even have a dedicated investor relations representative.

$190,000,000 in cash on hand, no debt - and they can't pay somebody $20 an hour to field shareholder concerns.

What about analyst coverage?

Why wouldn't Harry Vafias want a larger institutional ownership of the stock?

Thanks for asking!

True that!

$4.59 is still that number to beat in order to catalyze $IMPP short sellers into beginning to cover. No word back from management on my request about analyst coverage

We remain significantly undervalued as our market capitalization is even lower than our cash

OPERATIONAL AND FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS FROM Q2 & 6 MONTHS 2024

Looks like $CISS (C3is) paid Imperial Petroleum the $39,000,000 owed from the sale/purchase of the aframax tanker Afrapearl II. This brings $IMPP's total cash on hand to nearly $190,000,000