chmcnfunds
10年前
How American Express’s Costco loss makes Discover look better
Amex is taking a hit, highlighting the safer and better-performing Discover
By
PHILIP
VAN DOORN
INVESTING COLUMNIST
American Express has been the most profitable big U.S. bank for many years. But the credit-card company’s stock implosion on Thursday underlines two risks and puts a spotlight on Discover Financial Services.
American Express Co. AXP, -6.70% said Thursday that its exclusive contract with Costco Wholesale Corp. COST, -0.14% will end on March 31, 2016. That’s right: If you shop at Costco, the only credit cards you can use are the co-branded TrueEarnings card or an American Express card.
But American Express has decided it no longer wants to “pay to play,” with CEO Kenneth Chenault saying in a statement: “We were unable to reach terms that would have made economic sense for our company and shareholders.”
Shares of American Express were down as much as 7% on Thursday, wiping $6.2 billion off its market value.
During a conference call on Thursday, Chenault said: “More than 70% of the purchase volume from cards that we issue takes place on non-co-branded products.” That means nearly 30% of the company’s transaction volume comes from co-branded products, underscoring the severe blow from the loss of Costco. The CEO said American Express will be going after new co-branding deals, since “a number of major partnerships that are not currently with American Express will be coming up or renewal during the next few years.”
‘The Costco U.S. co-brand portfolio makes up about 20% of worldwide loans and about 10% of worldwide cards in force.’
Jeffrey Campbell, American Express
So there’s hope that, over the next few years, American Express will be able to limit the damage.
Still, American Express expects a “significant impact” from the loss of the partnership on sales and earnings for 2015 and 2016. “The Costco U.S. co-brand portfolio makes up about 20% of worldwide loans and about 10% of worldwide cards in force,” according to CFO Jeffrey Campbell.
Chenault expressed confidence that, after 2016, American Express could return to increasing its annual earnings per share by 12% to 15%.
A very strong long-term track record with a high valuation
Among the 30 largest U.S. banks by total assets, American Express has had the strongest annual returns on common equity over the past four years, ranging from 23.53% to 28.84% (in 2014), according to FactSet. For the four years, Amex’s average ROCE has been 26.92%. The stock closed at $86.01 Tuesday and traded for 13.1 times the consensus 2016 EPS estimate of $6.58. Of course, depending on the action for the stock, the forward P/E may climb, as analysts lower their earnings estimates over coming days.
Discover Financial Services DFS, +1.09% provides an interesting contrast to American Express. It is a much smaller company and lacks the co-branding relationships enjoyed by Amex. Discover’s return on common equity has ranged from 24.20% (in 2014, according to Oppenheimer) to 29.96%, for an average of 26.38%, ranking a close second to Amex. And its stock trades for only 10.3 times the consensus 2016 EPS estimate.
U.S. Bancorp USB, +1.51% ranks third among the 30 biggest U.S. banks, with a four-year average annual ROCE of 15.94%, according to FactSet, which is an impressive number for a bank that doesn’t focus on credit-card lending.
Getting back to the two credit-card lenders, both have served their shareholders well, with growth and stock buybacks, which reduce share count and boost earnings per share. But Discover has been, by far, the better performer.
The five-year total return, with dividends reinvested, for Discover’s stock through Wednesday was 377%, the best performance among the top 30 U.S. banks. That compares with a 113% return for the S&P 500 Index. Among big banks, American Express was tied with Huntington Bancshares Inc. HBAN, +1.43% for second place, with a five-year return of 141%.
For three years, Discover’s total return is 117%, once again ahead of its rivals and the 64% return for the S&P 500. Among the 30 largest U.S. banks, American Express ranks 12th, with a total return of 72%.
With a higher valuation, along with what might be two years of negative headlines as year-over-year comparisons show the effect of the nonrenewal of the Costco partnership, American Express looks like a far riskier play than Discover. As a result, you might expect Discover to extend its gap with American Express.
___________________________________
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-american-express-costco-loss-makes-discover-look-better-2015-02-12?mod=mw_share_twitter
DFS
chmcnfunds
10年前
Discover: Sell-Off Presents Buying Opportunity With 40% Upside
Feb. 2, 2015 7:58 PM ET | 6 comments | About: Discover Financial Services (DFS), Includes: MA, V
Disclosure: The author has no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. (More...)
Summary
Since the company posted Q4 2014 results, shares of Discover Financial Services have fallen almost 20%.
Discover presents a unique business model and value proposition, which management has capitalized on.
Despite a weak quarter, Discover presents several short- and long-term catalysts that will add value.
At less than 8x FCF, 10x forward P/E, and a PEG < 1.2, Discover is undervalued by ~40%.
Use this sell-off as an opportunity to pick up shares of Discover at a significant discount.
Company Overview
Discover Financial Services (NYSE:DFS) originated as the Discover Card through Sears in the 1980s. Since then, Dean Witter merged with Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS), and the Discover segment was spun off in 2007.
Discover operates in two segments - Direct Banking and Payment Services. The Direct Banking segment brings in the vast majority of revenues, and consists of credit cards, loans (student, personal home, home equity), prepaid cards, and bank accounts (CDs, Money Market, Checking, Savings). The Payment Services segment contains the ATM/debit network PULSE, as well as Diner's Club and Discover's network partners.
Although the majority of revenues stem from Discover's credit cards, the company is different from both Visa (NYSE:V) and MasterCard (NYSE:MA) in that while both the latter's business models are to act as a financial intermediary between consumers and a network of banks (open-loop), Discover is its own bank (closed-loop). This allows it to capitalize on lower costs through both the lack of branch networks and lower credit card loss rates.
David Nelms has been CEO since 2004, and served as president and COO prior to taking up the CEO position. During the past 11 years, Nelms has done an excellent job managing the company, as evidenced by its stable navigation through the financial crisis and consistent above-average growth after it. Nelms owns a significant portion of stock, and two-thirds of his compensation is tied to share performance.
Moat/Competitive Advantages
In addition to the closed-loop structure, Discover is differentiated from a strategic standpoint in that while banks look to secure cards for those with existing bank accounts, Discover looks to secure bank accounts for those with cards. In a time when the financial services sector has resorted to simply buying customers from other companies in order to grow, Discover has achieved and will continue to achieve organic growth through the customer. Discover looks to take the credit card user, transition them into a user of its financial services, and finally become the customer's home bank. As the industry leader in customer service and customer loyalty, it's not hard for Discover to not only make this transition, but also generate new customers year after year.
The simplicity of the network effect is crucial to Discover's success. As more consumers become customers of Discover, merchants are incentivized to become members of the payment network. On the other hand, as more merchants become a part of the network, consumers are incentivized to become cardholders. Thus, each marginal user both on the customer and merchant side of the transaction benefits from the marginal user on the other side. Although Discover's payment network is relatively small compared to the open-loop giants of Visa and MasterCard, it is growing and should continue to provide additional value for users on both sides of the transaction, while generating additional revenue for Discover.
Although credit standards have fallen in recent years, like American Express (NYSE:AXP), Discover has always focused on the prime borrower. The company's commitment to disciplined credit risk allows it to maintain modest write-offs and keep a low cost of funds. Additionally, this focus on the prime borrower allows it to hold on tighter to the customer compared to Visa and MasterCard in a downward turning credit cycle.
Competitors
Discover is involved in the credit card, banking, and payment services businesses, which means it not only competes with Visa and MasterCard, but also with banks and other credit providers, such as Capital One (NYSE:COF), American Express, Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM), Citibank (NYSE:C), and Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC). Selected data are shown in the table below:
(click to enlarge)(click link below for tables/charts)
(Source: Data via FinViz, author analysis)
Discover holds 6% of the market share of card issuers, and is #6 in sales volume behind American Express, Chase, BAC, Citi, and Capital One. In Network Purchase Volume, Discover ranks 5th, at just 5%. Discover has 62M cards in circulation, representing 10.7% of the total across the 4 major players. It is the 3rd-largest card by number of cards in use, and the 4th-largest in card balances.
Most Recent Quarter
In Q4 of 2014, Discover posted lackluster earnings results. After accounting for one-time charges, EPS came in at $1.19 versus Wall Street's estimate of $1.30. Last year, Discover beat EPS estimates of $1.18, coming in at $1.24. Revenue came in at $2.037B versus $1.811B, and net income decreased to $404M from $602M one year prior. One major reason was for the earnings miss was an increase in provisions for loan-loss reserves to $457M versus $354M a year earlier. Additionally, expenses grew 10% versus 6.3% loan growth. Management also expressed their disappointment with the lack of success in mortgages, evidenced by a $27M write-down of goodwill. Although progress in this segment would have certainly been good to see, the lack of progress was more than reflected in the drop in share price, and I believe was more a function of the state of the mortgage market and Discover's relatively new entry into it. Discover took somewhat of a contrarian stance; as others were leaving the market, it entered. Like many contrarian actions, this may not see immediate results, but I believe it will show to be a highly profitable move in the long run.
Shares have fallen 18% since their 52-week high late in 2014, and 9% since the earnings release on January 21. Management provided light guidance for 2015, highlighting revenue margin, provision for loan losses rate, and operating expenses. Due to increases in the latter, we can expect the net income margins to compress slightly in 2015. Overall, management's words and tone remained optimistic throughout the call in regards to 2015.
CFO Mark Graf Spoke to the provision for charge-offs:
Number one, I would say is I think we really hit the bottom for this cycle, I would say with respect to credit this last year ... And then on top of that, you look at three years of consistent loan growth that we've put up, whereas most of our peers have returned to loan growth really only like the last six months... So I think it's just an inevitability of the fact we've been growing. It doesn't feel like there is a problem. It doesn't feel like there is a fundamental turn in credit. It's just a function of growth.
On the call, CEO David Nelms also alluded to a new product launch coming from the Discover It platform coming rather soon.
I don't want to preempt the launch. I would just say we'll have the details out very soon. The one thing I would say is that we do think our Discover It platform is something that can be leveraged into other products that have some of the advantages that Discover It offers including free FICOs and pricing features, lots of features that others don't have, but maybe something a little different than our traditional cash back bonus program. So stay tuned, we'll give you the details real soon.
Valuation
Due to its closed-loop operational structure, Discover has higher margins than other credit service providers, which contributes to a consistent ROE of over 20%, despite a relatively low Price-to-Book. As was shown in the table above, Discover has the second-highest ratio of ROE to Price-to-Book among the top 5 credit card providers. It also boasts a 14.50% Free Cash Flow yield, trading at 7.7x FCF, handily beating out its peers and the credit services industry. Currently valued at a trailing P/E of 11.12 and a forward P/E of 9.53, Discover appears undervalued. A PEG ratio of 1.18 is the lowest in its peer group, and confirms the same.
In a simple DCF model constructed, free cash flow grows at an annual rate of 4.50% through 2019. Using a discount rate of 10% and a perpetuity growth rate of 2.5%, the fair value of the company is estimated to be ~$34B. With 449M shares outstanding, this yields a fair value of ~$76 per share, representing ~40% upside from Friday's close. Even when employing the most conservative estimates of DCF inputs, a substantial discount still remains.
Risks & Catalysts
A primary risk to investing in Discover is the rapid evolution of the payments industry, especially in mobile payments. Bitcoin's popularity even leading to ETFs, PayPal's spin-off from eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) Pay, Peer-to-Peer lending, and other entrants to the market show the desire for change, and each of these marginal entrants look to revolutionize the industry and gain market share, which could encroach into existing credit services. While Visa and MasterCard have partnered with Apple, Discover has had trouble driving volume. Although its payment network is a small contributor to revenue and net income, Discover has already partnered with firms like Ariba, China UnionPay, and PayPal. If this network can reach a fuller utilization, Discover will benefit immensely. The company also has the opportunity to partner with these marginal entrants to the mobile payments market and expand its reach through them.
A downturn in the credit cycle will hurt Discover through a decrease in volume. There are, however, some advantages Discover has that will allow it to outperform peers, despite a downturn in the credit cycle: its closed-loop system, disciplined credit risk, and the inherent growth that will occur in net income margins. The second macro factor we're seeing is the impact of lower gas prices. As opposed to what many hypothesized, the fall in gas prices has not seen a large impact on consumer spending. The WSJ reported that consumers are not increasing discretionary spending, rather they're saving their money or paying down debt. Regardless of interest rates or oil prices, the value investor should not be concerned with short-term macro fluctuations except to the extent that they damage the long-term health of the business. Buffett once stated, "If you aren't willing to own a stock for ten years, don't even think about owning it for ten minutes." Discover is one such stock that will succeed in both a healthy and a weak macro environment.
Given Discover's large and consistent cash flow, it has numerous opportunities to add to shareholder value. To generate future growth, it could expand into international territory and foster greater acceptance of the Discover card domestically. Discover offers a unique value proposition and has the earnings and cash flow to prove it, but management has yet to bring this internationally, and the company's domestic reach is limited, as evidenced by its market share compared to giants Visa and MasterCard. New initiatives could be put in place using this cash that would add to shareholder value not only in the immediate term but in the long term. Additionally, cash allows management to buy back stock. Shares of Discover trade at only 7.7x FCF and under 10x forward earnings. Relative to both peers, the industry, and the market as a whole, Discover is substantially undervalued. Management has indicated this in the past by their dedication to retiring shares, bringing the total count from 549M in 2010 to 449M in the most recent quarter. Discover also offers a 1.75% dividend, which also could be increased. Regardless of Nelms' decision of where to allocate this free cash flow, investors should have confidence given his track record.
As alluded to in the Q4 2014 call, Discover is looking to launch a new product soon, based on the existing Discover It platform. The increase in marketing expenses incurred in the most recent quarter reflected the coming of this launch, and is part of what contributed to the earnings miss. Although management hasn't provided much information as to what this new product entails, investors should be confident that it will add value to the company.
Summary
(click to enlarge)(click link below for tables/charts)
Shares of DFS faltered in late 2014 before the Q4 2014 results came in on January 21, 2015. Since releasing both Q4 2014 results and issuing 2015 guidance, shares have fallen an additional 9%. Although the Q4 results were demonstrative of short-term issues, both short- and long-term catalysts remain. I'm paraphrasing, but Seth Klarman once said, "If you buy a stock at $50 and it's worth $100, you're not worried if it goes to $40." I see Discover Financial Services as one such stock. Although currently dropping in value, Discover is worth much more than it trades at today. The most recent earnings report triggered an overreacting market, with analysts dropping price targets and investors panicking. This irrationality has presented investors with a rare buying opportunity to pick up shares of Discover at a significant discount to their intrinsic value.
_________________________________________
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2876306-discover-sell-off-presents-buying-opportunity-with-40-percent-upside?auth_param=udil:1ad07bi:3b2af3296f168b812f67e6a53a2b0048&uprof=46
DFS
chmcnfunds
10年前
Discover Financial: A Solid Play On The American Recovery And Oil Tax Cut
Jan. 29, 2015 1:19 PM ET | 1 comment | About: Discover Financial Services (DFS), Includes: AXP, MA, V
Disclosure: The author is long DFS, JPM. (More...)
Summary
DFS is trading at modest historical metrics following the market over-reaction to a disappointing quarter.
DFS is slowly and prudently growing its loan base while maintaining modest (and adequately reserved) write-offs.
Recent events suggest cost of funds will remain low for the medium-term.
Declining unemployment and the oil "tax cut" are both strong, positive indicators for loan growth and modest default rates.
Discover Financial Services (NYSE:DFS) is the "nice" credit card issuer and processor, often overlooked but, conservative and solidly profitable. The Company based in the friendly Midwest (suburban Chicago) was founded in 1960 and became a public company in June 2007, after being spun-off from Morgan Stanley (NYSE:MS).
Two Segments
DFS operates in two primary segments, Direct Banking and Payment Services. Direct Services includes the Discover Card credit and debit cards, held by over 50 million customers in the United States, and a consumer lending and deposit products business offered through Discover Bank. Payment Services includes the Discover network, which processes payments for merchants using the Discover Card, PULSE, an ATM network, and Diners Club (International). Unlike most credit card issuers, except American Express (NYSE:AXP), who utilize the Visa (NYSE:V) or MasterCard (NYSE:MA) networks, Discover cards are processed through the Company's network. Discover is not the largest network, but it is a consistently profitable network.
Source: Cardhub.com
The vast majority of the Company's revenues and profits derive from the Direct Banking segment.
Recent Stock Performance
During 2013 and 2014, DFS appreciated by almost 43% as the U.S. economy expanded, DFS profits grew and market concerns lifted for certain financial companies.
(click to enlarge) (click link below for tables/charts)
Source: Yahoo!
However, as evidenced by the fourth quarter income statement (and discussed later), the Company incurred several one-time charges in rewards costs and loss reserves that negatively impacted results.
Source: Discover
The market reacted negatively to the "bad news" in the fourth quarter earnings. As shown below, the negative reaction created the current opportunity. Since the beginning of the year, SFS is down almost 16%.
(click to enlarge)
Source: Yahoo!
Makes Money on Card Balances (Lending )
Direct Banking makes the bulk of its money lending money to customers through its credit cards, and to a lesser extent via direct consumer student and personal loans. Total loan receivables at the end of 2014 were $70 billion, up 6.4% during the year. Historically, 62% of Discover cardholders had a balance or loan with the Company; as DFS has become more aggressive, the percentage of new accounts with balances or loans has increased to 78%.
Source: Discover 10-K
Conservative Lender/Strong Credit Quality
Traditionally, DFS has been less aggressive in pursuing borrowers with lower credit scores and has been stingier with respect to credit limits. As a result, DFS has traditionally experienced lower charge offs than its peer group (Citibank (NYSE:C), JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM), Capital One (NYSE:COF), American Express and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC)). Charge offs varied by product, with the net principal charge-off rate for credit cards in the fourth quarter of 2014 at 2.26%, less than the 2.63% reserve rate. Overall, the net principal charge-off was 2.18%, against a reserve rate of 2.59%.
Source: Discover; the charge off rate increased to 2.2% in the quarter ended December 2014
Charge offs are a key indicator of both company credit quality and the overall strength of the U.S. economy. As DFS has grown its loan portfolio, overall charge offs increased by 15 basis points (BP) in the fourth quarter of 2014 compared to the year-ago period. The reserve rate, while still 41 bp more than the overall charge offs, fell by 4 bp.
Opportunistically Aggressive
DFS has been more aggressive in positioning itself as a consumer friendly card.
The Company has leveraged its brand and, beginning around the time of the Great Recession, as competitors pulled back, has taken a more aggressive stance than its peer group in growing loan balances.
Source: Discover; peer group also includes Wells Fargo (NYSE:WFC)
The Nilson Report estimates DFS's credit card purchase volume will increase by 35% in the 2013-2018 time period, reaching $172 billion.
Cost of Funds Modest; Expect Medium Term Declining-to-Constant
As with all financial institutions, DFS makes money on the spread between the rate at which it lends money and its cost of funds, less bad debts. The Company's cost of funds has been declining in recent years, but can be expected to increase if interest rates increase. The concern over rising interest rates was more urgent as recently as three months ago. While the timing of interest rate increases is not known, the trend has been toward even lower interest rates. On January 27, MS indicated it did not believe the U.S. Federal Reserve would increase interest rates until Q1 2016.
Source: Discover (all interest-bearing liabilities)
At the end of 2014, DFS had an "interest yield" of 11.4% (net interest margin was 9.8%), an average cost of funds related to the loans of 1.8%. As previously mentioned, the net principal charge-off was 2.18%.
Modest Valuation (though not screamingly cheap)
From a valuation perspective, DFS boasts a strong growth rate, a reasonable-to-attractive yield and a modest PEG.
Source: Yahoo!
Further, the fourth quarter earnings included a number of a one-time charges and provisions which, to me, smack of cookie jar filling. Of course I am not suggesting any wrong-doing; I am suggesting conservative reserves which have the potential to be moderated or released at a future date. In other words, a potential upside.
Why Discover?
Measured, profitable and opportunistic growth
Valuation at low end of historic 10-12x PE range
PEG of 1.2 is reasonable
DFS is a play on expanding U.S. economy and oil "tax cut"
DFS benefits from a strengthening U.S. economy, driving low write-offs and confidence to borrow
DFS benefits from oil "tax cut" as consumers spend more (though is hurt by lower gas charges)
DFS is U.S. only, unlike AXP, MA and V, and has no currency risk
Positioned as high integrity, non-gimmick company; avoids promotional price wars and avoids overly risky clientele
Continued low interest rates make cost of funds even more attractive (and likely lower than analyst have forecasted)
Risks to Consider/Watch For
A turn in the U.S. economy
Spot unemployment in the oil patch driving market defaults
Unexpected increase in interest rates (increases cost of funds)
Higher net default rates
I like the credit card sector in today's economy. The U.S. economy is strengthening and will continue to grow as unemployment stays low and consumers warm to the oil tax cut. DFS is a conservatively managed, cautiously opportunistic company that can (and is) take advantage of the good times in the U.S. It is modestly valued, sports a reasonable PEG and pays a reasonable (though not rich) dividend. Default rates are low, are adequately (or even over adequately) reserved and are being carefully monitored. The recent pullback creates an opportunity to initiate a position. DFS should help investors "get rich slowly).
This article only reflects the author's opinion. It is not designed, and should not be used as the basis of an investor's buy or sell decision. Investors should always conduct their own due diligence and make their own buy and sell decisions.
__________________________________________
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2864166-discover-financial-a-solid-play-on-the-american-recovery-and-oil-tax-cut?auth_param=udil:1acnir5:2b3ca76ee11e6f95e8e4b97c4fc8c847&uprof=46
DFS
chmcnfunds
14年前
Their financials today are proving you correct. Maybe we'll get a bigger bump as the overall market stabilizes:
JUNE 23, 2011, 9:58 A.M. ET
UPDATE: Discover 2Q Jumps As Delinquencies Hit All-Time Low
(Updates with more results and background throughout, adds stock price in the fifth paragraph.)
By David Benoit and Mia Lamar
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--Discover Financial Services (DFS) said the number of customers a month who are late on their credit card payments hit an all-time low during its second quarter, helping more than double the card company's profit.
The record-low in credit-card delinquency rates, which the company said covers a 25-year period, highlights the sharp turnaround in Discover's consumers' ability to pay off credit-card debt. The rate fell to 2.79% of all credit-card loans from 4.39% a year earlier.
And as the drop also came with a 1% increase in credit-card balances and a 5% increase in total loans--which includes all types of loans and not just credit cards--Discover sounded hopeful on the health of its consumer and its own business.
"While the U.S. economy has yet to show significant strengthening, we are confident that we can continue to achieve profitable growth in all of our lending businesses," said David Nelms, chairman and chief executive.
Shares were up 1% at $23.76, one of the few stocks rising in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index Thursday, as the results beat analyst expectations. Year to date, the stock is up 29%.
Discover, both a lender to cardholders and a processor of transactions, has posted stronger results in recent quarters as improving credit trends have meant the company can set aside less for loan losses, and even pull money out of its rainy-day fund, as it has for each quarter over the past year.
For the quarter ended May 31, Discover reported a profit of $600 million, or $1.09 a share, compared with a prior-year profit of $258 million, or 33 cents a share. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected earnings of 75 cents a share.
Revenue net of interest expense rose 4.6% to $1.74 billion, topping the $1.7 billion analysts expected.
The results were partially boosted by a $401 million reduction to the loan-loss reserve, as Discover said its outlook improved once again.
Net charge-offs, or loans the company doesn't expect to collect, fell to 4.42% of all loans from 7.97% a year earlier. Delinquencies of over 30 days were 2.68% of all loans, compared with 4.52%.
Provisions for loan losses were $176 million, down from $724 million a year ago.
The increase in total loans in the quarter reflected a higher holding of private student loans, after Discover bought Student Loan Corp.'s (STU) business late last year. It also saw a large jump in personal loans.
Last month, the company said it would pay $55.9 million to acquire the mortgage assets of Home Loan Center, a unit of Tree.com Inc. (TREE), calling the move a "low-risk, low-cost way" to get into the home loans business. Discover, which has been searching for new ways to boost loan revenue, plans to originate home loans that it will sell in the secondary market.
-By David Benoit and Mia Lamar, Dow Jones Newswires; 212-416-2458; david.benoit@dowjones.com
________________________________________________________________
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110623-707114.html
DFS
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