JRyan
23時間前
That seems reasonable. However, as i said years ago, a Gharwar size field is highly unlikely. Here are the top 25 fields in the world.
What I honestly think the high end would be at most 10x, the 2015 Garb Report. That figure was 250 mill. X10 = 2.5 billion, then recoverable, maybe tops of 20%.
Therefore, 500 million on the high end, and that is around $8-10 using the spreadsheet. That is my guess of what could happen. I hope for at least half. Note: that is using 1.6 billion shares and $100 oil.
Here is a link that you can play with the spreadsheet if you like.
Znog calc Spreadsheet
tisdal
1日前
I do understand that the price points made in prophetic statements are what today seems high. No timeline was given within the prophecy.
I will say this was not the only prophecy where such numbers were given.
I think what you may be more comfortable with is what JRyan uses in his Netback Calculations (netback, or profit per bbl, is really the only way to truly calculate the return on an oil and gas field):
(Netback * Number of Recoverable Barrels) / Outstanding Shares
Let's punch in some numbers:
Netback of $25 seems close enough based on JRyan's numbers. Let me know if I am wrong JRyan.
$25 Netback on 100 million recoverable or proven barrels with 1.25 billion outstanding shares
($25 x 100,000,000) / 1,250,000,000 = $2.00 per share for each 100 million recoverable or proven barrels.
We now have to state what is considered modest and medium.
According to Co-pilot:
Common size classifications (based on EUR) Wikipedia:
Giant field: = 500 million barrels (bbl.) of oil equivalent
Major field: 100–500 million bbl.
Medium field: 10–100 million bbl.
Small field: < 10 million bbl.
Where a bbl is the standard unit used in the oil and petroleum industry to quantify crude oil, refined products, and natural gas liquids, providing a consistent measure for production, trading, and consumption worldwide.
So, your prediction is that Zion has a small to medium field where we can expect (with a $25 netback) $2.00 per share at best.
The SMALL/MEDIUM FIELD Example (best):
$25 Netback on 100 million recoverable or proven barrels with 1.25 billion outstanding shares
($25 x 100,000,000) / 1,250,000,000 = $2.00 per share for each 100 million recoverable or proven barrels.
The MAJOR FIELD Example (best):
$25 Netback on 500 million recoverable or proven barrels with 1.25 billion outstanding shares
($25 x 500,000,000) / 1,250,000,000 = $10.00 per share for each 100 million recoverable or proven barrels.
The GIANT FIELD Example (best):
$25 Netback on 1 billion recoverable or proven barrels with 1.25 billion outstanding shares
($25 x 1,000,000,000) / 1,250,000,000 = $20.00 per share for each 100 million recoverable or proven barrels.
The prophetic stance is that with the gas discovery followed by the oil discovery, that after analysis, the Active Petroleum System will show a Giant field that is 11 billion, 800 million bbls:
The PROPHETIC Example:
$25 Netback on 11 billion, 800 million recoverable or proven barrels with 1.25 billion outstanding shares
($25 x 11,800,000,000) / 1,250,000,000 = $236.00 per share.
The VENEZUELAN Example:
$25 Netback on 300 billion recoverable or proven barrels with 1.25 billion outstanding shares
($25 x 300,000,000,000) / 1,250,000,000 = $6000.00 per share.
This is all fun to do, but we really do not know what the proven or recoverable barrels will be. The thing is we are no longer wondering if there will be a commercial discovery. After the ASM, we know there will be, the question becomes how much will be recoverable / proven and what will be the netback per barrel?
The other thing to consider is when we pull gas condensate from the deeper levels and prove oil at shallower depths, Zion then has proven the existence of an Active Petroleum System that was first found while drilling MJ01, what does that say with respect to the value of the license area that Zion is about to put under a 30 to 50 year production lease (that according to Israeli Law is their right to do)? Zion will then have exclusive access to what MAY be a very large discovery. What is the value of Zion if that should be the case? Considering the size of the license/lease area, is $236 really all that much to pay per share for a company sitting on exclusive access to "The Oil of Israel"? How do we put a price on that?
The Prophetic Statement no longer seems to be all that far-fetched when we consider it from this perspective, but yes, we are still a long way off and there is a lot of work that has to go right to get to that point.
It is not under our control, but our founder is speaking face to face to the one who is. May He continue to bless us.
THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE!
Please correct any errors in math above. I'm not perfect
RobotDroid
1日前
My findings on ChatGBT after submitting a question on valuation with all of the pertinanat data. $10-30 a share is what caught my attention.
ZNOG is one of the most speculative energy stocks in the market. Any valuation depends almost entirely on whether the current MJ-02 horizontal well proves a commercially producible reservoir. Because of that, it's important to separate:
What Zion has actually reported.
Geological implications.
Speculative investor theories.
Prophetic statements (which cannot be verified through financial analysis).
What Zion Is Actually Doing Right Now
The most recent company update states that Zion is preparing a horizontal drilling operation from the MJ-02 wellbore in Israel's Megiddo Valleys License area. Directional drilling equipment was scheduled to arrive in early June 2026 and horizontal drilling was expected to begin shortly thereafter.
According to company filings, MJ-02 is being used as a sidetrack into essentially the same target interval previously tested by MJ-01. The wells are only about 7.5 meters apart at surface and roughly 300 meters apart at depth. Zion specifically states both wells access the same target zone.
That is significant because:
MJ-01 already flowed gas to the surface.
Zion says gas composition data confirmed the targeted zone responded to stimulation.
The company believes the reservoir remains worthy of horizontal development.
Geological Assessment
The strongest geological facts available today are:
Positive Indicators
✅ Gas reached surface during flowback testing.
✅ Zion reported gas characteristics consistent with a productive reservoir.
✅ The company is spending additional capital to drill horizontally rather than abandoning the play.
✅ Horizontal drilling usually means management believes permeability or reservoir extent could justify a larger contact area.
Unknowns
❓ No reserve report has been published.
❓ No independent estimate of recoverable gas volumes has been released.
❓ No commercial flow rates have been announced.
❓ No proved reserves have been booked.
From a petroleum geology perspective, gas at surface proves an active petroleum system exists. It does not automatically prove a commercial field exists.
The key unanswered question is:
Can the horizontal well produce at commercial rates?
That is what the current operation is designed to answer.
Could Gas Condensate Lead To Oil?
The theory discussed by many shareholders is not unreasonable geologically.
A petroleum system often contains:
Dry gas
Wet gas
Gas condensate
Oil
at different depths and pressures.
If Zion encounters gas condensate, it would indicate hydrocarbon generation and migration occurred successfully.
However, it does not guarantee a major oil accumulation exists above the gas.
Many basins contain commercial gas but limited oil.
The oil thesis remains unproven.
Stock Price Scenarios
Current ZNOG price is around $0.58 with approximately 1.18 billion shares outstanding and a market capitalization around $680 million.
Scenario 1: Horizontal Well Fails
Result:
No commercial flow
No reserve estimate
Possible stock range:
$0.05 – $0.20
This would likely resemble many previous exploration disappointments.
Scenario 2: Commercial Gas Discovery
Result:
Sustained flow rates
Independent reserve report
Development plan
Possible stock range:
$2 – $10
This would likely attract institutional attention for the first time.
Scenario 3: Large Gas Condensate Field
Result:
Multi-TCF gas potential
Condensate liquids
Long-term development project
Possible stock raMge:
$10 – $30+
This assumes reserve estimates support a field of regional significance.
Scenario 4: Major Oil Discovery
Result:
Commercial oil accumulation
Significant recoverable reserves
Possible stock range:
$20 – $100+
Historically, small exploration companies have achieved these types of moves after transformational discoveries.
Scenario 5: World-Class Discovery
This is the scenario some shareholders envision.
Requirements:
Major gas field
Significant condensate
Commercial oil accumulation
Large recoverable reserves confirmed by independent engineers
Could the stock reach $235?
Mathematically yes, but it would imply a market capitalization exceeding $275 billion using today's share count.
That would place Zion among the largest energy companies in the world.
That outcome cannot be ruled out with certainty, but from a conventional valuation standpoint it is an extremely aggressive scenario.
My Assessment
Based strictly on currently available evidence:
The probability that Zion has found some hydrocarbons is high because gas already reached the surface.
The probability that the current horizontal well proves an active petroleum system is reasonably good.
The probability of a commercial gas discovery is still uncertain.
The probability of a major oil discovery remains speculative because no oil flow data has been released.
The next major catalyst is the MJ-02 horizontal drilling program. If Zion reports sustained commercial flow rates and reserve estimates, the valuation framework changes dramatically. Until then, ZNOG remains an exploration company whose value is based primarily on future expectations rather than proven reserves.
tisdal
1日前
Prophetic Statement:
[paraphrase] ... I see $16. Then a shaking, I see $235, Zion will hit gas. There will be a lot of gas. As vision continues I see Black oil right behind it. In the same channel where this gas was found.
The prophetic statement makes it clear that this discovery occurs at the current site. Not some future location.
With that said, there will be future locations as the license area proves out as a major source of hydrocarbons.
IMHO, This is probably why Mr. Dunn balked at the question asked during the ASM about drilling outside of Israel. They know what they are on top of.
If you have watched the ASM and read what CW has posted from GROK on Facebook, this is exactly what Zion is doing.
As Mr. Russell said during ASM, Zion is going after the gas condensate (i.e. the Rocket fuel). Another prophetic statement claims Zion will take off like a rocket 🚀 (confirmation?).
The discovery of gas condensate at deeper levels will prove the Active Petroleum System (found while drilling MJ01) is functioning correctly and oil will be found locked under cap rock at shallower levels over the license area.
After the gas, then the oil. The Oil of Israel that Mr. Brown saw prior to his death (quote from Mr. Dunn during ASM).
This is all happening before our very eyes.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE!
tisdal
2日前
Nice Job on the Research CW. That opened my eyes to truly understand what the GARB Report's purpose was. That GARB Report was a preliminary document to establish hydrocarbon potential justifying the 3D Seismic, and after analyzing that data, if drilling would be justifiable.
The statement by GROK that gas condensate at lower depths is found in larger oil discoveries at higher depths is what made me understand why we are seeing such higher valuations. Keep feeding GROK to see what else it can tell us.
1. GARB Report establishing hydrocarbon potential
2. GARB Report justifies 3D Seismic
3. 3D Seismic justifies drilling.
3D Seismic data combined with Drilling data tells the true story.
MJ01 found an Active Petroleum System
MJ02 provided better data with respect to the Active Petroleum System.
Full analysis of all this data over the last couple of years has led us to the next step; Horizontal Drilling.
There is no way Horizontal Drilling would be allowed by the MOE if there wasn't good evidence that the risks to the Agricultural Kibbutz were justified.
From your and JRyan's research, combined with all the prophetic indicators that have been met over that last month, I am convinced we are onto something very big. I think we are onto, The Oil of Israel, and am far more comfortable with the current valuation. I am pretty sure we have more room to grow with respect to valuation prior to discovery.
Once oil investors have time to digest all the information provided through the ASM, they are going to get onboard. They are going to see that we have the potential for a significant discovery. A discovery a preliminary GARB Report could never have foreseen.
NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE!
tisdal
4日前
JRyan,
My understanding is that we are looking to obtain the Texas stock exchange symbol that will replace "ZNOG" in the June/July timeframe. Then, once we meet all the required parameters to be listed on the exchange, we will make the move and Mr. Dunn is going to "Cowboy Up" . YEE HAW!!
I do not believe they will do a reverse split to meet the parameters to get on the exchange. I think their expectation is that over time, as the prospects of hydrocarbons become more clear, the parameters will be met naturally.
As of right now, everything for this company is firing on all Cylinders.
1.) Very strong hydrocarbon prospects - CEO when asked how much oil is there - [paraphrase] "I can't tell you, but we will be happy."
2.) New Offices.
3.) Moving to a stock exchange with integrity.
4.) Respected and Trusted even at the highest levels of the the Israeli Government.
5.) $10+ Million in Cash on hand.
6.) $40+ Million in single participant .25 Warrants that are in the money - HIGH CAPITAL INVESTMENT.
7.) Established relationships will contractors who are standing with us in our endeavor.
Seriously, what happened!?
We're suddenly flush with money and capital investment!? WHAT!!?
Where am I? What's happening?
And John Brown is talking to the Man who owns it all??
And it's all happening before our very eyes!!!
Someone pinch me and wake me up!!
We are truly blessed.
[commentary] Hopefully this move to the Texas stock exchange will get us away from the corrupt cottage industry of shorting that exists on the OTC. You and I lived through that. We watched as our investment was decimated (by no fault of the company). The only reason this stock is so diluted is because of that immoral short attack that it underwent. When the short attack started, there were only 60 thousand shares outstanding, now there's over a billion. That's the detrimental effect it had on us. They literally tried to destroy us, but here we are. I cannot wait for the day when we hit an ALL TIME HIGH so that every past investor will at least have the opportunity to make a profit on this investment.
IMHO, that corrupt cottage industry of shorting should be shutdown by the SEC and those involved should be brought to justice. How many small companies just like us did not make it?
Looking back, it's amazing that Zion Oil and Gas survived that assault.
tisdal
5日前
Any analysis of that AMoS from the 23:00 time stamp tells you they know they have something of value that they are about to bring to the surface. They are very confident. All it is now is a matter of how much gas and oil is there, and how long will it take to commercialize. The last question of the meeting was fun to watch.
As stated in the past, this will be a National Treasure, and Israel will be heavily involved in getting what comes to the surface to a refinery. I do not believe that will be a cost incurred by Zion. The pipeline will be the national property of Israel due to security and environmental concerns. Building it will be very quick. Unlike in the US where there is permitting and political red-tape, Israel can move quickly and build out whatever it needs under the cover of national security.
There is also the fact that this is the first time Israel has every allowed horizontal drilling. IMHO, Zion had to prove the value of such an effort; moreover, provide some very convincing information for the Ministry of Energy (MOE) to allow for horizontal drilling inside of an Agricultural Kibbutz where the drilling site is located.
I will be very interested in watching the next 10Q with respect to Warrants. There has been some big money capital investment going on here since January (which interestingly coincides with our rise in share price from .13 to .625). It will be interesting to see how many they exercised.
We also seem to have $10 Million cash on hand (almost twice as much as last year).
I do not remember a time when we were so flush with cash and capital investment.
These are all very bullish indicators
If this stock does not run, it's because they are not getting enough market attention. This is not an altogether bad thing. A slow walk up so as to not attract too much attention would be preferred.
Now that we know it's coming, we do not need to be in any hurry. Slow and steady wins the race, and that is what I saw yesterday; a Steady Confidence was the overall atmosphere of the AMoS.
"We know what's coming, it's been over 20 years in the making, we are about to be abundantly blessed, so let's take our time and get this right."
And we just sent our best Ambassador to have a face to face meeting with the Man who is in charge. He has control over this so let's sit back at this point and watch Him work .
tisdal
6日前
JRyan,
From same 10Q:
On January 15, 2026, the Company issued 19,147,462 of the ZNWAU warrants to one participant, with an expiration date of June 30, 2026. The exercise price of the ZNWAU warrant is $.25.
On January 15, 2026, the Company issued 145,180,117 of the ZNWAS warrants to one participant, with an expiration date of June 30, 2026. The exercise price of the ZNWAS warrants is $.25.
Together with the ZNWAS warrants that's a potential cash infusion of $41,081,894.75 if they were to all be exercised.
JRyan
1週前
TEN THINGS I WANT TO LEARN FROM THE 2026 ANNUAL MEETING
Zion Oil & Gas (ZNOG) — Annual Shareholders' Meeting, June 2, 2026
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Seven wells. Five license areas. A quarter-century in Israel. This is the first annual meeting since the founder's passing, and there is a lot a long-term holder would want to come away understanding. Below are the ten things I am most hoping to learn — each is a question you can ask as written, with a note on what a real answer should reveal. The goal is understanding, not a fight.
Not investment advice. Shared for discussion and educational purposes only. Figures reflect the company's public SEC filings as of late May 2026 and may change — verify against the latest filings before relying on them. Any warrant-exercise or investment decision should be made only after consulting a licensed financial advisor.
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1. THE CASH RUNWAY BEHIND THE GOING-CONCERN WARNING
Ask: "What is our current cash balance, how many months of runway is that at the current burn, and what funds operations through MJ-02?"
The Q1 2026 10-Q flags substantial doubt about going concern against a ~$304M accumulated deficit. Everything else rides on this. Listen for a real number and a runway in months — not general confidence. The tell is whether the runway clears the next well or only the next few months.
2. WHAT IT TAKES TO DRILL MJ-02
Ask: "After the rig crew was demobilized due to the regional conflict, what has to happen to remobilize, and what is the realistic window to spud and complete the horizontal lateral?"
MJ-02 is the near-term catalyst. I want to learn whether the delay is weeks, months, or quarters, and whether it hinges on security, funding, equipment, or regulatory steps. This separates a temporary pause from an open-ended one.
3. THE LICENSE 434 EXTENSION
Ask: "License 434 runs to September 13, 2026 with extensions available. What work commitments secure the first extension, and how confident is the board it will be granted?"
The drill plan only matters if the license holds. With the primary window closing in September and the rig demobilized, the extension is not a formality. Listen for what the regulator requires and whether management believes it has met it.
4. THE JUNE 30 ZNWAS WARRANTS
Ask: "The 145.18M ZNWAS warrants at a $0.25 strike expire June 30. Do you expect them exercised, and if fully exercised, how much cash comes in and how many shares?"
Full exercise is roughly $36M in and about 145M new shares — transformational against the going-concern backdrop, and possibly what funds the rig. The question reaches the capital and dilution math without asking management to name the single participant, which they will not do from the podium.
5. AUTHORIZED-SHARE HEADROOM
Ask: "After all outstanding warrants and options, how many authorized shares remain, and when would we need a vote to raise the ceiling?"
Continued reliance on the DSPP and unit/warrant programs steadily consumes the authorized pool. There is no such proposal on this year's ballot, so the answer tells us whether the ceiling is near or comfortably distant.
6. REVERSE SPLIT / UPLISTING
Ask: "Is a reverse split under consideration, and is returning to a national exchange a goal? What would trigger that?"
At sub-$1 on ~1.18B shares, a national-exchange uplisting needs a minimum bid price that effectively requires a reverse split. This also explains why no split proposal appears on the current ballot.
7. WHAT COUNTS AS SUCCESS — AND THE FARM-IN PLAN
Ask: "What result from MJ-02 would you call a commercial discovery, and if it is positive, who funds development and what interest do we keep?"
A show of hydrocarbons and a sustained flow test are very different milestones. I want the specific, measurable threshold management would call commercial, and whether there is a credible plan to fund development — almost certainly a farm-in with a larger operator. A clear answer separates a plan from a hope.
8. GOVERNANCE AFTER THE FOUNDER'S PASSING
Ask: "Will the Executive Chairman seat be filled or retired, and with the CEO now also serving as Chairman, what independent oversight is in place?"
The founder anchored this company from its organization in 2000 until May 2026. With the chief executive now holding both titles, authority is concentrated. A fair, respectful question on how the board preserves independent oversight.
9. THE GAS SHOWS
Ask: "What is the significance of the gas encountered at the Megiddo-Jezreel wells, and does it inform the MJ-02 target?"
Encouraging is not the same as commercial. Listen for zones, shows, and log data versus enthusiasm — that reveals how much the prior well actually advanced the geological case.
10. THE PATH OFF THE DSPP TREADMILL
Ask: "Is heavy reliance on the stock-purchase and unit/warrant programs sustainable, and what non-dilutive financing — partner, farm-in, or debt — is being pursued?"
The DSPP has kept the company alive for twenty years, but at the cost of relentless dilution long-term holders bear directly. This reaches the core concern: whether our ownership keeps being diluted indefinitely.
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HOW TO GET ONE ANSWERED
- Submit your question at registration for the meeting — best shot at getting it on the record.
- Use the live chat for questions during the webinar.
- Given the memorial tone this year, an operational question will land better and draw a fuller answer than a confrontational one.
Reminder: Not investment advice. For reference and discussion only. All figures are from public SEC filings as of late May 2026 and should be verified against the latest filings. Consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment or warrant-exercise decision.