dinogreeves
1日前
No baby, I am not here to debate who has been here longer than who and frankly I don't give rat arse you have been here that long, hitting and running. I am here to point out this is not going to run like last time without fizzling out, more importantly something that solidifies the run. Furthermore, I know exactly who has been here and how long they have been here, on most of the posters here, I also checked on you 2.5 years ago, know the players. Let me guess, you only bought 90,000 today max maybe 120,000, nothing to sneeze on.
dinogreeves
1日前
There is not enough liquidity to get algos in the mix. Yes, this ticker is in much better position compared to last 4 years, but again as you say repeatedly there is still so much ahead with permits, environmental issues, public hearings, according to you repeatedly they have to start from the beginning (It's the law), according to you repeatedly, they can't bypass the law through the back room deals.
Again, all I am saying is, unless we have definitive proof that they have the permits on hand or magically the FID happens then the stock will officially lift off.
My assumptions are based on reality, not based on what happened in the past with panic buying, my assumptions are people are more savvy than they were 2...3....4....5 years ago, 2...3 especially.....4....5 years ago, everything in the OTC was running, anything you threw at the wall was running.
Times are different now, most don't stick around to see things materialize (with the exception of TGLO) 240-270 days out repeatedly uttered on this board by you, but now according to you, which looks like a change of tune from just couple of days ago, ("Which is just a guess").
Again, one of these things need to happen to go past all time high, out of the blue volume spike to the tune of 1-2 million on a random day of the week, something pertinent to the permits and or FID, otherwise every spike past 40 cents will fizzle out, I still stand firm with my predictions cause like you I have seen the pattern on this ticker though past performance doesn't indicate the future on any ticker especially when this was based on solely on some pump articles and panic buying. Important facts still remains to be seen, Permits and FID and anything in the mix, such as contracts, but how are they going to secure contracts with any permits in hand, thus Devon contract out of this equation so far, that may change once the back room deals are signed with the new administration.
Yes, FID or something pertinent to the permits or some magical volume out of nowhere on a random day 1-2 million volume will make run above and beyond all time high.
I also see how former Tellurian and LN*G and where they were before the actual merger, common sense is what I look at.
Essentially what you are saying is people should buy this and drive it up to 70 cents and give it a market cap of 300 million plus based on nothing, no permits, no fid and let it fizzle out again, just because on a hunch of what happened 2-3 years ago with this ticker?
Mr. C
1日前
I’m not using past performance to make any price predictions.
I’m just saying that anyone who can tell you a stock won’t go past a certain number for whatever reason (even if I agree it’s only a shell and all that) can’t really say for certain.
And even less so when that stock already has gone past that number without the thing they claimed to need.
Also, I feel it’s in a much better position than it was in 2023. Others might feel the same now or with the new admin.
I can’t say why people are buying, but according to your argument they shouldn’t be simply because I said we are 240 days out, which is just a guess.
If thinking we are close to FID is all investors need like last time then I guess that’s all they need to break your $0.48 huh?
So, as we get close then it should be under the same conditions as last time, so what’s your argument then?
Assuming people will wait for the actual news this time? That’s what it is, an assumption.
I think after permits people will feel much more secure than last time.
The FOMO might be people buying in anticipation of the inauguration, just random algo buying like a lot of other days, or people who have been waiting on the sides and have seen it tightly held around $0.20. Who knows?
Just like who knows how or why it has and could go past $0.48.
dinogreeves
1日前
All I am saying is past performance on this ticker is mute, we both know this is just a shell, there is not enough bread crumbs to push it past 50 cents this time around, last time total different then this time around, last time most were thinking FID from the mid 2023 to the end of 2023, only this time around most are going to wait for FID news, they are not going to get in with their eyes closed without the confirmation of the FID news or something pertinent to the permits, but like you always and repeatedly say the permits are 240-270 days away, so what justifies another Fear of Missing Out FOMO buying to push it up. Simple there is nothing, unless Permits are issued in the back room (Which you repeatedly debate over) or magically they FID, these two happen, yes it will go to all time high. End of story, period.
Mr. C
1日前
I’m more confident they’ll get the permits now than I was 2 years ago. Hindsight is easier, but anyone who compares now to back then should clearly see the company is in a much better position and has more contracts secured.
I’m not saying it will go past $0.50, but I’m just saying that you can’t really say it never will without FID when it already has.
I bet when MARAD permit comes in and we’re waiting on DOE, prior to FID, and then get that as well this takes a huge jump and can def go past some arbitrary $0.48 cent number that you charted.
One thing I know is no one can accurately predict price on Wall Street, so I try stay away from that, but I def have figures in mind
Mr. C
1日前
Are you saying this stock never went past $0.48?
Because I clearly remember that happening.
You can say forget the past, but that’s not really a valid argument.
No one can predict price, so to say that it will never go above $0.48 when it already has without FID doesn’t really hold water.
Also, I’m the one who said if it goes to $0.10 on the wait then I’ll buy more. I’m just saying if it drops then I’ll jump on it, but a lot can happen between now and the next year, so I’m good with what I got for now and waiting to see is all.
dinogreeves
1日前
No, it hasn't been proven to be untrue. Don't compare anything to couple of years ago, couple of years ago things were very much different what they are today, today we have Trump, couple of years ago we though they will have the permits in hand. The market is different, but hey new administration is in power. The only thing that will take this to the previous heights again is FID and I stand firm by it, no one is as stupid as people were two years ago.
Mr. C
1日前
I don’t like playing price predictor with a shell or any stock, but that has already been proven untrue.
Nothing about the stock is different today than it was a couple of years ago.
It can absolutely break those arbitrary numbers and already has.
The market might be different, but no one knows where it will go or why.
Contracts, news on the app submission, limited FID construction, MARAD & DOE approval (come separate), and just the clock winding down in anticipation; plenty can push it above that price.
Everyone expects the price to go up with FID and hoping for a reverse merger paired with it, so that isn’t new, but still a lot of other factors could push this higher than anyone thinks before FID
NorthPeak22
2日前
Delfin mention...https://www.dobenergy.com/news/headlines/2025/01/09/north-american-lng-export-capacity-to-double-by-20
North American LNG Export Capacity To Double By 2028
North America’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity is on track to more than double between 2024 and 2028.
If the 10 projects currently under construction all go ahead as planned, capacity will increase from the current 11.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) to 24.4 bcf/d in 2028.
A handful of other projects have also recently reached final investment decision (FID) and are due to start construction this year.
The EIA expects U.S. LNG exports to increase by nearly 2 bcf/d in 2025 as export capacity grows with three new U.S. projects due to begin operations.
On top of this, five additional U.S. projects are due to come online by 2028, along with three projects in Canada and two in Mexico over the same timeframe. These new projects will create a significant demand pull for natural gas.
Canada’s projects will be served by the natural gas fields in Western Canada, while the U.S. and Mexican projects will receive feedgas from the southern U.S. states.
While all new projects have secured off-take deals, this does not guarantee that the export terminals will operate at full capacity.
“Exactly how [LNG] demand manifests itself with a call on U.S. gas as a function of demand internationally as well as competing supply internationally. Those two things will continue to move around,” said Nick Dell’Osso, CEO of Expand Energy, on the company’s Q3 earnings call.
The outlook for North American exporters is promising.
Global gas demand is expected to reach new all-time highs of 405 bcf/d in 2025 and 415 bcf/d in 2026, according to the IEA’s recently-published Global Gas Security Review.
Global benchmarks for LNG pricing rose by around 15% in Q3 2024 compared to Q2 and are expected to stay at a similar level throughout 2025, according to the IEA.
The volume of contracts signed with post-FID projects in the first eight months of 2024 was 4.8 bcf/d, representing a 65% increase compared with the same period in 2023, according to the IEA report.
This bodes well for the North American capacity that is still at the pre-FID stage.
While the five U.S. projects had received preliminary U.S. Department of Energy approval, the future became unclear after the pause on new LNG export approvals in January 2024.
Several projects extended deadlines for first exports, and it was unclear whether the extensions would be granted during the pause (including Mexican projects that require DOE approval if they are to export U.S. gas).
President-elect Donald Trump is expected to lift the pause and allow permits for new LNG exports from next year.
The following U.S. export terminals are most likely to reach FID first because they are most advanced in sales and purchase agreements:
Venture Global's CP2
Cheniere Energy's?Corpus Christi Stage 4
Delfin LNG
Energy Transfer’s Lake Charles LNG
Kimmeridge’s Commonwealth LNG
Woodside’s Louisiana LNG (formerly Driftwood LNG)
Risks to projects
U.S. projects are popular with LNG buyers because they offer competitively priced free-on-board contracts that allow cargoes to be sent anywhere in the world.
However, they are further away from Asian importers — the key market driving demand — than Middle East suppliers.
Qatari export growth between 2026 and 2030 could limit U.S. LNG export arbitrages by undermining prices — raising concerns of a mid-term supply crunch for U.S. exporters.
Qatar’s North Field expansion will increase the nation’s LNG export capacity from 10.3 bcf/d currently to 19 bcf/d by 2030.
“The expansion of Qatari and U.S. export capacity could cause competition for market share between the two to intensify,” according to a report from the Middle East Institute last year after the expansion was approved.
Another risk for U.S. LNG projects is new tariffs imposed by the incoming Trump administration especially for the LNG projects with signed sales and purchase agreements with Chinese importers. A 25% steel tariff implemented in 2018 led to significant price increases for LNG projects. President-elect Donald Trump has stated that one of his first executive orders after taking power would be to put tariffs on all goods entering the U.S. from Mexico and Canada.
Trump also threatened China with additional tariffs, raising concerns of another trade war between the two countries. In 2019, LNG exports from the U.S. to China came to a halt because of the tariffs.
JAB65
3日前
Excellent! How did we miss this report from October. Delfin fatigue no doubt!
To the extent that this development is seen as inconsistent with Delfin’s statements in its
prior semi-annual status reports, that is because it was wholly unexpected by Delfin and, at least
from Delfin’s perspective, inconsistent with indications from MARAD over the more than two
years that Delfin had already been engaged with the agency pursuing license issuance. Notably,
Delfin provided MARAD in April 2023 with an EA that demonstrated that there are no
substantial changes to the Project or significant new circumstances relevant to environmental
concerns that require supplemental NEPA analysis, and that Delfin’s engineering refinements
use the best available technology, as required under the DWPA and the ROD, and result in equal
or lesser level environmental impacts than those analyzed in the prior final EIS. Moreover,
MARAD included the EA prepared by Delfin as an attachment to its letters reinitiating
consultation under Section 7 of the Endangered Species Act sent to the U.S. Fish & Wildlife
Service (“FWS”) on August 17, 2023, and to National Marine Fisheries Service (“NMFS”) on
October 27, 2023, that requested expedited concurrence with MARAD’s conclusion that Delfin’s
Project is not likely to adversely affect any listed species or critical habitat.
As a modular project consisting of multiple separate FLNGVs, with the ability and long
standing plan to develop its FLNGVs sequentially, Delfin has sufficient contractual support to
support to support a positive FID to proceed with its first FLNGV, contingent upon the timely
resolution of its regulatory issues. Delfin is currently targeting FID on its first FLNGV during
2025, with FID for the second likely to be concurrently or to follow very soon after. With that
expectation, Delfin is targeting the start of commercial operations of the first FLNGV in 2029.
NorthPeak22
4日前
Delfin mention...https://ieefa.org/resources/ieefa-comments-doe-lng-export-terminals-and-permitting
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), a non-profit organization focused on research and analysis of global energy markets and trends, provides the following comments in response to the Notice of Availability of the 2024 LNG Export Study and its Request for Comments that Inform DOE Public Interest Determinations in the Permitting of Future LNG Export Terminals and Permitting the Expansion of Existing Sites to supply non-Free Trade Agreement nations, Docket Nos. 13-69-LNG, 14-88-LNG, 15-25-LNG, 16-28-LNG, 19-134-LNG, 20-23-LNG, 21-131-LNG, 22-39-LNG, 22-167-LNG, 23-34-LNG, 23-46-LNG, 23-87-LNG, 23-109-LNG, 23-137-LNG, 24-27-LNG, and 24-87-LNG. These comments are intended to address motivations behind the buildout of LNG export capacity that are associated directly with the benefit of a select few rather than the greater well-being of society.
U.S. LNG companies have three strong incentives to push their projects forward despite the looming risk of global oversupply.
1. Long-term contracts insulate LNG projects from market risk.
U.S. LNG buyers sign take-or-pay contracts that guarantee 20 years of revenue, even if the buyers never take a single cargo. These contracts give lenders confidence that their debt will be serviced, no matter what happens in the LNG market.
Venture Global’s controversial CP2 LNG project has already secured guaranteed contracts with ExxonMobil, Chevron, China Gas, EnBW, New Fortress Energy, SEFE, Inpex, and Jera. Cheniere Energy has contracts with Equinor, Chevron, and PetroChina to expand its Corpus Christi facility. Saguaro LNG (a Mexican project sourced with U.S. gas) is fully contracted, and Delfin LNG has enough volume to support one train. Lake Charles LNG and Commonwealth LNG aren’t far behind, with a mix of firm contracts and preliminary agreements.
If these projects all receive their final export approvals from the U.S. Department of Energy, some of them will likely move forward, based solely on the contracts already signed.
2. LNG developers hope that soaring demand will quickly clear a market glut
LNG developers are doing their best to stimulate long-term demand. Take Japan, the world's largest public financier of gas and LNG projects. Japanese firms are involved in more than 30 different gas and LNG-related projects throughout South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Taiwan, including LNG import terminals, power plants, and gas distribution businesses. These companies plan to profit by building infrastructure, not by trading gas. Meanwhile, Japan’s largest LNG buyers plan to boost sales of LNG into developing Asian markets due to declining demand at home.
A glut could supercharge efforts to cultivate Asian demand. Over the last three years, LNG has earned a reputation as an expensive and unreliable fuel. An oversupply could help reset the market by making LNG seem more affordable—at least until the next global crisis sends the markets spiraling.
3. LNG insiders get rich when their projects get funded
Never underestimate the power of greed. A positive Final Investment Decision (FID) unleashes a gusher of money from lenders and equity investors. With most new projects needing to raise well over $10 billion in financing, insiders can skim off just a percent or two in fees and bonuses and walk away rich.
Remember, insiders can secure generational wealth even if their project isn’t successful. Yes, they do better if the project makes money. But their incentives are all aligned towards reaching FID at any cost—even if the market doesn't need more LNG.
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