Fannie Mae (QB) (FNMAL) 銘柄情報

not both - IMO
so we would like the GOV to cancel the large - which is the SP

Hopefully not like the Tiktok example... hes the one that wanted to ban it in the 1st place.

Current dividend yields for comparison:
Chevron 4%
Exxon 3%
Wells Fargo, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs :2%
I think a 3% dividend yield for FNMA will be on the high side.

Actually clarky I agree with you for once, we can discuss dividends along with the Easter Bunny next year we got conservative ship warrants preferreds and the big board are first in line....

thanks, let's hope they turn on dividends for commons in the foreseeable future.

at 3% yield = $67

https://x.com/guidoperei/status/1881091438152474744?s=46&t=2Y42DPZFgRdwTBHj5W8jMQ

$Boooooom! Finally, a POTUS Who Wants the US to Make Money TikTok as well as GSE Monetization for the US

Rule Of Law Guy - Jan 19

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

For GSE investors expecting that the US Treasury would be incentivized to monetize its 79.9% common stock interest, worth over $300 billion according to Bill Ackman, GSE recapitalization and conservatorship release would seem to be a natural objective for the US to endeavor to achieve.

The GSEs have already been reformed (no more toxic mortgages, and no more risky interest arbitrage by holding a massive portfolio of whole loans), and they have passed Dodd Frank extreme stress tests with flying colors at their current capitalizations.

But this assumed something not in evidence: that the Biden administration actually cared about increasing the US’s wealth (in addition to the Biden family’s wealth).

What GSE investors needed was a POTUS with the normal incentive of wanting to make the US richer.

$Enter $Trump $47.

Recent support for the proposition that Trump will actually seek for the US Treasury to monetize its GSE warrant position can be found in this tweet:

“I would like the United States to have a 50% ownership position [in TikTok] in a joint venture. By doing this, we save TikTok, keep it in good hands and allow it to s[t]ay up. Without U.S. approval, there is no Tik Tok. With our approval, it is worth hundreds of billions of dollars - maybe trillions. Therefore, my initial thought is a joint venture between the current owners and/or new owners whereby the U.S. gets a 50% ownership in a joint venture set up between the U.S. and whichever purchase[r] we so choose.”

So Trump sees that US approval for the continued operation of TikTok in the US is worth hundreds of billions of dollars…and he is right….and Trump wants the US to monetize the value of US’s permission for TikTok to do so.

Finally, a POTUS whose economic interest for the US is aligned with the interest of GSE investors.

same price paid...

okay

$0

was paid.

Yes, very realistic and expected that the government could cancel the warrants AND deem the sps paid in full. This will come as a "negotiated" concession between fhfa and treasury, in lie of treasury returning 80+ Billion in excess takings (ie. $180B in and $300B out) ... or about 80B more than normalized.

So absolutely yes.

Anyone, that says there is no chance or little chance has an agenda or not very bright. Keep in mind Ack'man .& Pags have agendas and narratives.

My shares are in a Roth, plan on selling then buying a REIT or ticker GLV for dividends. Open up to opportunities for monthly, vice quarterly dividends; especially if your shares are in a Roth.

Way too early to discuss dividends

Perhaps - But you need something to figure out what an ultimate fair price would be to pay. I bought this for the dividends.

Conservatorship - yeah, I remember hearing something about that. Isn't that supposed to be - like - temporary? The only reason we are still in conservatorship is that they were waiting to break the Brittney Spears record (13 years). Hey - if you're this close - whether its a hot or cold temperature, a sports score - whatever - I always say you may as well go for the record. Now that we've done that they are going to release us. That's the sole reason the conservatorship has lasted this long and why its about to end.

Nats

Lol, GSEs are still in Conservatorship. They freed Brittney, not the GSEs. Way too early to discuss dividends 🤪

I would like to live on dividends

You're welcome Vancmike. Even Ackman mentioned 5% that I call the Old People Expected Rate of Return. I just feel that the OPERR is going to drive the ultimate price as these were considered safe dividend stocks pre conservatorship and will be again. And we already have a long track record of what the companies make per year. So the price comes down to warrant and/or senior exercise. That's really the only variable.

Nats

my humble opinion: kthomp argument is too static. framework conditions can change, including regulations and laws.
I am sure that when fannie and freddie are released again, the legal framework will be adapted to the new reality beforehand.
legal regulations are always adapted to new circumstances.

Kthomp reports on the past and the democrats theory. Trump admin will do a deal.

Thanks JSmith5

Reasonable practical thinking

I would like to live on dividends

Old sleepy Yellen and fat Thompson are demoRates, they just want comfort, titles and money.
Pulte is young and energetic, and in Real Estate business with his groundpa. He will make it!!

Exactly. Bessent and Pulte are different from Calabria and Mnuchin. Here come the facts. There is nothing to say about sleepy Yellen and fat Thompson because they have done nothing.

Let's assume FNMA starts paying a dividend on $2 per share annually, on commons. (yes, big assumption)

I would go by the OPERR of 5%. $2 is 5% of x.

I don't think $2 dividend is unreasonable. $30B of earnings per year (combined) times 2/3 for dividends and $2B a year off the top for JPS.

That leaves $18B for 1.8B common shareholders - $10 a share. If warrants exercised now say $2 per share. So $2 dividend not unreasonable even after warrants with a resulting stock price of x using the OPERR of 5%.

Nats

Remember when I told you all that my son in-law asked me back in October “Dad what do you think that the share price will be by the end of January?“ At that time he wanted to use his families Spring vacation money to gamble with to maybe make more so that he could take the family to Disney world instead of Disney Land. I told him that I thought that if Trump wins that it would be around $8. Fast forward, I look brilliant and the Grandkids are ecstatic that they are going to Disney World in March! 😂❤️

Best case Scenario is higher than Ackman’s scenario while worst case is probably Around Ackman’s scenario. Either way up from here

Thanks Viking61. Yeah - I think Ackman was on the low side. He needs to be conservative as his fund's reputation is as stake. As I have said before I thought, based on the utility model, and someone expecting a 4-5% return, $40-50 would seem reasonable to me based on distributing 2/3s of $30B (combined). (I believe Ackman mentioned a potential 5% dividend in his presentation).

There is always risk in any stock. In the last 16 years we have seen the GSE narrative evolve from taking the companies into receivership to changing their business models and creating more GSEs to TINA. It reminds me of the old saying about the US Gov't is that they always do the right thing - after exhausting all the other alternatives first.

If I was new to the stock and looking to buy - either company and either common or preferred - I would highly recommend going back through this comment board. Especially those posts starting maybe a month or so before the election until now. In general, it lays out the good, bad and ugly about GSE stock. However, you have to keep in mind that most of us are here because we own or seriously thinking of owning shares and are generally positive on the companies and their related stocks. And people here are not shy about giving their opinion. Also, I don't think there is a lot of pump and dump stuff going on on this board. And not too much shorty talk (someone would short this - like now? - it would be safer to go play on the Beltway during rush hour - like I always told my kids to do when they got annoying).

Remember that these are the biggest and 3rd biggest companies in the US - so only events - both good and bad - are going to move the price (like, obviously, the election seems to have influenced the price and expectations). And if some news event happens re the GSEs, board members here are always on it like white on rice and post it right away like they were working for CNN or Fox News. Except it might get a little irritating as you may see the same article posted multiple times over several days.

But I would recommend you give these companies a look. Nothing guaranteed or sure thing here - except things are about to get more interesting - one way or the other.

Nats

Take ur pick, i already did.
Markets on election years:
Election Date Day After Week After Month Later Year End
11/3/2020 2.20% 5.23% 8.83% 11.48%
11/8/2016 1.11% 1.91% 4.98% 4.64%
11/6/2012 -2.37% -3.77% -1.01% -0.15%
11/4/2008 -5.27% -10.62% -15.96% -10.19%
11/2/2004 1.12% 2.97% 5.29% 7.20%
11/7/2000 -1.58% -3.42% -6.17% -7.79%
11/5/1996 1.46% 2.16% 4.23% 3.72%
11/3/1992 -0.67% -0.31% 2.38% 3.76%
11/8/1988 -0.66% -2.48% 0.52% 0.93%
11/6/1984 -0.73% -2.61% -4.49% -1.86%
11/4/1980 2.12% 1.72% 5.77% 5.21%
Average -0.30% -0.84% 0.40% 1.54%
Median -0.66% -0.31% 2.38% 3.72%

The crystal ball I have for January:
January 21: $8
January 31: $10

Corrupt FHFA and treasury acted on their own or under the guidance of Brandon/Obama to fight with shareholders without the congressional approval. Now FHFA will have to accept the jury verdict and inform the new congress about the misdeeds of old FHFA and treasury. Why fight with a unanimous verdict in a country which boasts the world about their perfect legal system which is ready to lock up an elected president for whatever?

That’s why he’s waiting ! DJT wants the GSE’s released so why hold it up by appealing over $800 million when you can negoicate a deal for the JPS in the release!

Everyone, this week enjoy the ride UP !!

Question - looking for opinions.

Let's assume FNMA starts paying a dividend on $2 per share annually, on commons. (yes, big assumption)

What would be your best guess of stock price, based on dividend payment? with and without dilution.

As Kthomp mentioned the Lamberth case could be settled by Plaintiffs - right now the FHFA and Plaintiffs could continue to appeal depending on how Lamberth decides. The Lamberth case could also be settle with Bhatti, Wazee and Rop which have a lot of the same JPS Plaintiffs. That would leave Fisher and Kelly outstanding. It is possible that the Lamberth settlement could be used by JPS to sweeten their compensation or negotiate a start of divs ect. If Lamberth rules for the USG - it invalidates the Class Action which could make it harder to settle all of the litigation because of the multiple parties involved. We dont know why Lamberth has waited but the wait should be good for us because as of Tuesday the new Acting FHFA Head could direct the FHFA lawyers not to appeal or settle if Lamberth upholds the decision.

Thanks NATS, great reply! Knowing that a lot of new people are following I just want to make sure the differences without all the hoopla. I thank Bradford also for stating that the preferreds are non- cumulative. The closer that all of us are to what is real the better for the entire community here! Preferred’s safer but capped Commons more risk but no cap! Back payment of any dividends is a farce. Best case Scenario is higher than Ackman’s scenario while worst case is probably Around Ackman’s scenario. Either way up from here. This is not investment advice just my thoughts and trying to keep things somewhat real. I am 100 % Common . GLTA!

“Perpetual, non-accumulative" Preferred Shares.

Perpetual, non-accumulative preferred shares made three payments each year. Two interest payments and one Performance payment.

Therefore the Perpetual, non-accumulative preferred shares pay for themselves with the performance payments.

I proved this many years ago with links to the JPM Series Z ($1,000 face) Perpetual, non-accumulative Preferred shares.
Two interest payments of $34, and one Performance payment at the end of the year of a little more than $200.

The WMI Series R ($1,000 face) traded on average for $1,300. Subtract ($76+$1.5) for interest plus Trustee fees.
That puts the performance payment at around $200+.
I received another data point and calculated the area under the curve for the accumulation.
~2.2X face value.

Perpetual;
The Performance Payment is Perpetual for the life of the ABS in the Trusts.
Safe Harbor Assets.


non-accumulative"
The interest payments are NOT accumulative.
DONE.



Ron

The warrants are fruit of a poison tree and are toxic.

Will create a big elongated problem...

Best to quash them.

LOL.  Good one.

Before I forget $8 by Friday.  There you go I said it.  Highest price we have ever seen yet.  Just polished my whale horn.  Now I gotta tune it.  No worries it will be ready to blow bright and early Tuesday morning.

Right now as it stands, I believe that preferreds will probably get par but commons could get 8-15 X from where they are now!

Thanks Viking61 - Its been a hell of a good week for us. Before the week started I was saying that, depending on your risk level, commons were clearly the better buy. But, based on the Ackman presentation and the common run up, the common and preferred prices expectations are a lot closer. Commons, currently trading at 7, may go up to $34-$35. That's about 5x from here. It looks to me that the average $50 preferred is selling at about 38% of Par and Ackman says they may be offered a 10 percent or more discount from the re-ipo price when converted. That's about 3X from here. This does not include any money ($1/share?) FMCC and all the preferred shares may get from Lamberth.

So we have entered the situation where we are getting a lot of attention and things are moving faster. Last week's risk/return analysis (or even yesterday's) may not be good for next week. Especially when you hear the word "relisting" being kicked around.

I just thought I would throw that out for thought. As I said, hell of a week and I guess we may be in for hell of a week 2.0 starting at noon tomorrow.

Nats

I'm no wizard but, "We're not in Kansas (2008) anymore, Toto!!!"

Don’t worry be happy!

back divs on jps will not be paid. they are non cum.

Buddy Clark is alive?

Buddy Clark (born Samuel Goldberg, July 26, 1912 – October 1, 1949) was an American popular singer of the Big Band era

Another if: when Lamberth is certified and the Government is convicted on wrongdoing. Then I believe that the warrants will definitely be canceled which will rocket commons higher while preferred’s will hit their cap limit.

Hey everyone I have a situation.  My good buddy Clark says it is 2025.  This is big news to me.  I did not know.  Can anyone confirm ?  I do not have internet access.

Sorry but I did mean preferred’s. Neither common or preferred classes will receive back dividends repaid because they have been in conservatorship. That’s why I’m on the commons side of the ledger for exponential gains through share price appreciation! The only thing that we’re going to get is the Lamberth judgement. Which completely wipes out your preferred dividend payback theory.
Right now as it stands, I believe that preferreds will probably get par but commons could get 8-15 X from where they are now! Just look at the last couple of months to see what has transpired and that will give you an idea of what’s coming. Preferred’s 2X then they will be capped or Commons 8-15 X. As always, great luck to all of us here both commons and preferred!

Are you aware this is 2025, not 2008. Just so you know there is no current crisis.

You meant preferreds I assume not warrants...anyways all back dividends on all class of preferreds will be paid...illegal government taking.

Posts and info need to go on X (twitter) and Reddit ... this is where the eyes are ... noboby of any financial, political, or regulatory significance will be influenced or even read ANYTHING on this board ... The many excellent warrant related posts need to posted and repeated on these sites. EVERYONE MUST understand how critical these social media outlets are to our eventual final success!

Ano's X post was excellent and there have been many warrant "illegality" related posts here that MUST be SHARED on X and Reddit. Q, you MUST tag anyone and everyone of significance (Ackman, Fiderer, NYSE, NASDAQ, politicians, regulators, investors, and on and on). We should also be posting the 8-0 Lamberth Jury verdict repeatedly on these sites as well!

All of this will continue to raise awareness, get more buyers instead of quick profit takers and speculators, and will build a much stronger base - with both sustained investment and the source knowledge to fight against full warrant execution.

NOTE: I put "illegality" in quotes as shorthand notation for all of the related warrant nullification data, information, and precedent we have that would be the equivalent of illegal when adjudicated by the investing public and our allies which should eventually make court adjudication moot.

Trump doen't believe in you shortie !!!

Yes, sold back to FnF for the same price they brought them !!!

Look at his family and life, and accomplishments, he bought GSE stock for many of the same reasons we did. difference between him and us, some of us will be posting on sites forever for many reasons, hate, discontent, advertise their investments, many other reasons. He makes big moves, and made billions from nothing, where he started in college just like some of us, eating cardboard pizza and Ramen noodles. nutin wrong with that, i hunker for fast food still, ill never be too sophisticated, arrogant, or stuffy to not appreciate the simple things in life 😁

i agree that interview was phenominal, ackman is a good man, thanks for recomending this interview

As our friend FOFreddie reminds us FNMA will be a major component of the S&P 500 - When the company re-list on the New York Stock Exchange every index fund will be purchasing the common shares driving the stock price. Not only the index fund but Institutional Investors as well as mutual funds.

The major difference between AIG and Fannie Freddie, the companies have a Federal Charter where AIG does not. Federal Statute prevents a commitment fee attached the Senior Preferred Stock.

What we need is a major news outlet like the Wall Street Journal to publish the truth about Congressional Law that governs the GSE’s.

they have been helping middle class for over 7 decades, it created the middle class, for the past few years under deep swampy cover, they have been trying to get rid of the middle class, while stealing money from investors and giving to healthcare, stealing companies, using illegal mafia style financing where none was needed, and Maddog Maxine now trying to give our money to hi risk credit people. Time to take back our multi Trillion Dollar Housing industry out of the hands of greedy corrupt slobs.