Generac Holding Inc (GNRC) オプション

Twin Hurricanes Send Generac's Portable Generator Supplies To Critically Low Levels

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/twin-hurricanes-send-generac-supplies-portable-generators-critically-low-levels

Storm trade today for selling about 10% of the GNRC shares in my account.
Selling into this strength is a great seasonal effort.
https://schrts.co/cvNumchZ
There's still 90% of the shares left should the price rise further. And, now there's a nice fat cash reserve to repurchase shares should this rally not last.
Best wishes,
OAG

Buy with both fists imo

GNRC "The QQQ, SPY and DIA

The popular Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ), which tracks the Nasdaq 100, is now up 8 straight days, and up 8.5% over that time.

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is up 7 straight days, gaining 6.4% over that period.

The SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) is also up 7 straight days, and it's up 5.5% over that time period.

For the QQQ so far in November, Datadog is the top performer, up 25%. Warner Bros. Discovery, which reports tomorrow, is up 16.8% in November.

In November, AMD is up 15%, and Nvidia is up about 13%.

At the bottom of the QQQ, Fortinet is down 13% this month. Moderna is down 3% in November, and Baker Hughes down 1.6% in November.

Expedia, Generac and Insulet are the top performers in the SPY. All three are up about 23%.

Paycom, Fortinet and Match Group are at the bottom of the pile.

As far as the DIA is concerned: Goldman Sachs, Microsoft and Apple are at the top so far in November. All three are up more than 6%.

Chevron, Procter & Gamble and Dow Inc. are at the bottom. All three are about flat this month.

Over the last week and a half, the weighted QQQ is outperforming Direxion NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index (QQQE). The SPY is outperforming the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP), but the DIA is even with the First Trust Dow 30 Equal Weight ETF (EDOW)."

After cresting at around $150/share earlier this year, GNRC has had some tough times thru the end of October.
Today's healthy gain helps to erase some of that downward slide.
Best wishes,
OAG

Off an incredible 47% for the quarter, plus it pays no dividend.

https://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GNRC

Love the nonsense precision. As for AIM, I'm almost certain 99.87% of you would be better off buying and holding a simple index fund, and checking back once a decade or so (or every 9.7 years)

"cash reserve for GNRC is currently at around 31% of total position value."

Scroll to Statements
Index S&P 500 P/E 29.06 EPS (ttm) 3.90 Insider Own 1.20% Shs Outstand 61.56M Perf Week -24.45%
Market Cap 6.99B Forward P/E 14.02 EPS next Y 8.08 Insider Trans -8.71% Shs Float 61.18M Perf Month -15.01%
Income 251.80M PEG - EPS next Q 1.15 Inst Own 94.00% Short Float / Ratio 7.73% / 3.52 Perf Quarter 3.88%
Sales 4.32B P/S 1.62 EPS this Y -34.80% Inst Trans -0.99% Short Interest 4.73M Perf Half Y -13.52%
Book/sh 38.00 P/B 2.98 EPS next Y 34.25% ROA 4.80% Target Price 146.96 Perf Year -54.51%
Cash/sh 2.23 P/C 50.90 EPS next 5Y -1.44% ROE 10.80% 52W Range 86.29 - 281.50 Perf YTD 12.51%
Dividend - P/FCF - EPS past 5Y 21.30% ROI 12.60% 52W High -59.77% Beta 1.29
Dividend % - Quick Ratio 0.80 Sales past 5Y 22.10% Gross Margin 33.20% 52W Low 31.25% ATR 7.61
Employees 9160 Current Ratio 2.40 Sales Q/Q -21.80% Oper. Margin 10.50% RSI (14) 31.66 Volatility 6.19% 4.29%
Optionable Yes Debt/Eq 0.69 EPS Q/Q -96.50% Profit Margin 5.80% Rel Volume 1.92 Prev Close 110.77
Shortable Yes LT Debt/Eq 0.65 Earnings Aug 02 BMO Payout 0.00% Avg Volume 1.34M Price 113.25
Recom 2.40 SMA20 -21.03% SMA50 -14.51% SMA200 -1.76% Volume 1,708,854 Change 2.24%







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Today Upgrade Truist Hold ? Buy $160
Today Upgrade Janney Neutral ? Buy
Aug-01-23 Reiterated Truist Hold $120 ? $160
Jul-24-23 Initiated CL King Buy $178
Jul-19-23 Reiterated Citigroup Neutral $127 ? $144
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Feb-21-23 Downgrade Truist Buy ? Hold $145
Show Previous Ratings

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Generac Holdings Inc. designs, manufactures, and sells power generation equipment, energy storage systems, energy management devices and solutions, and other power products for the residential, light commercial, and industrial markets worldwide. The company offers residential automatic standby generators, automatic transfer switch, air-cooled engine residential standby generators, and liquid-cooled engine generators; residential storage solution consists of a system of batteries, an inverter, photovoltaic optimizers, power electronic controls, and other components; Mobile Link, a remote monitoring system for home standby generators; smart home solutions, such as smart thermostats and a suite of home monitoring products; smart water heater controllers; residential clean energy solutions; and portable and inverter generators; outdoor power equipment, including trimmers, field and brush mowers, log splitters, stump grinders, chipper shredders, lawn and leaf vacuums, and pressure washers and water pumps; and battery-powered turf care products. It also provides commercial and industrial products comprising cleaner-burning natural gas fueled generators; light-commercial standby generators and related transfer switches; stationary generators and related transfer switches; single-engine industrial generators; industrial standby generators; industrial transfer switches; light towers, mobile generators, and mobile energy storage systems; and aftermarket service parts and product accessories. The company distributes its products through independent residential dealers, industrial distributors and dealers, national and regional retailers, e-commerce partners, electrical, HVAC and solar wholesalers, catalogs, equipment rental companies and distributors, and solar installers; and directly to end users. The company was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Waukesha, Wisconsin.

income statement | balance sheet | cash flow annual | quarterly
Period End Date TTM 12/31/2022 12/31/2021 12/31/2020 12/31/2019 12/31/2018 12/31/2017 12/31/2016
Period Length 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months 12 Months
Total Revenue
4,316.79 4,564.74 3,737.18


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Cost of Revenue
2,883.04 3,042.73 2,377.10
Gross Profit
1,433.76 1,522.00 1,360.08
Selling, General and Administrative
711.28 691.12 463.29
Research and Development
161.85 159.77 104.30
Unusual Expense/Income
5.20 22.30
Total Operating Expense
3,864.46 4,002.15 3,016.88
Operating Income
452.33 562.59 720.30
Interest Income Net
-66.53 -53.70 -31.54
Other Income Net
-0.84 -0.42 2.76
Net Income Before Taxes
384.97 508.47 691.53
Provision for Income Taxes
78.84 99.60 134.96
Net Income
298.07 399.50 550.49
Income Avail. to Common Excl. Extraord.
251.77 350.27 533.39
Income Avail. to Common Incl. Extraord.
251.77 350.27 533.39
Diluted Average Shares
64.03 64.68 64.25
Diluted EPS Excl. Extraord.
3.90 5.42 8.30
Diluted EPS Incl. Extraord.
3.90 5.42 8.30
values in Millions, USD

Insider Trading Relationship Date Transaction Cost #Shares Value ($) #Shares Total SEC Form 4
Jagdfeld Aaron Chief Executive Officer Aug 01 Sale 152.22 5,000 761,100 607,690 Aug 03 04:10 PM
Kanuru Rajendra Kumar EVP, GC, Corp. Secretary Aug 01 Sale 152.22 250 38,055 16,368 Aug 03 04:11 PM
Jagdfeld Aaron Chief Executive Officer Jul 03 Sale 149.15 5,000 745,750 612,690 Jul 03 06:14 PM
Kanuru Rajendra Kumar EVP, GC, Corp. Secretary Jul 03 Sale 149.15 250 37,288 16,618 Jul 03 06:14 PM
Jagdfeld Aaron Chief Executive Officer Jun 01 Sale 108.12 5,000 540,600 617,690 Jun 02 04:21 PM
Jagdfeld Aaron Chief Executive Officer May 01 Sale 102.16 5,000 510,800 622,690 May 03 04:14 PM
Jagdfeld Aaron Chief Executive Officer Apr 03 Sale 109.48 5,000 547,400 627,690 Apr 05 04:19 PM
Jagdfeld Aaron Chief Executive Officer Mar 01 Option Exercise 29.81 69,501 2,071,825 655,476 Mar 03 06:19 PM
Jagdfeld Aaron Chief Executive Officer Mar 01 Sale 119.37 45,207 5,396,367 615,269 Mar 03 06:19 PM
Ragen York A. Chief Financial Officer Feb 24 Option Exercise 47.86 41,462 1,984,184 155,021 Feb 28 04:39 PM
Jagdfeld Aaron Chief Executive Officer Jan 03 Sale 102.69 5,000 513,450 585,975 Jan 05 04:06 PM
Dixon Robert D Director Dec 05 Buy 97.27 2,000 194,550 8,895 Dec 06 07:08 AM
Jagdfeld Aaron Chief Executive Officer Dec 01 Sale 105.20 5,000 526,000 590,975 Dec 02 04:06 PM
Jagdfeld Aaron Chief Executive Officer Nov 01 Sale 119.05 5,000 595,250 595,975 Nov 03 06:06 PM
Jagdfeld Aaron Chief Executive Officer Oct 03 Sale 179.90 5,000 899,500 600,975 Oct 05 04:06 PM
Jagdfeld Aaron Chief Executive Officer Sep 01 Sale 216.36 5,000 1,081,800 605,975 Sep 02 04:04 PM
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GNRC
Generac Holding Inc
113.4001
2.6301 (2.37%)
Volume: 1,690,715
Day Range: 111.845 - 115.00
Last Trade Time: 1:35:51 PM EDT

SOME SAY A WEAK BUY $GNRC

2 YEARS;


===========================================

SEVEN MOS; http://www.stockta.com/
[-chart]www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/candle.pl?cobrand=&symb=GNRC&size=analysis&support=0.00,15,0.00,66,0.00,38,0.00,14,0.00,12,0.00,15,0.00,3,0.00,2,0.00,4,0.00,6,0.00,2&trend=[/chart]


http://www.barchart.com/quotes/stocks/GNRC

SEVEN MOS
[-chart]www.stockscores.com/chart.asp?TickerSymbol=GNRC&TimeRange=180&Interval=d&Volume=1&ChartType=CandleStick&Stockscores=1&ChartWidth=830&ChartHeight=500&LogScale=&Band=&avgType1=&movAvg1=&avgType2=&movAvg2=&Indicator1=None&Indicator2=None&Indicator3=None&Indicator4=None&endDate=&CompareWith=&entryPrice=&stopLossPrice=&candles=redgreen[/chart]


http://www.barchart.com/quotes/stocks/GNRC


2 YEARS;
[-chart]www.stockscores.com/chart.asp?TickerSymbol=GNRC&TimeRange=950&Interval=d&Volume=1&ChartType=CandleStick&Stockscores=1&ChartWidth=1100&ChartHeight=480&avgType1=&movAvg1=&avgType2=&movAvg2=&candles=redgreen[/chart]

SEVEN MOS



http://www.barchart.com/quotes/stocks/GNRC


2 YEARS;
[-chart]www.stockscores.com/chart.asp?TickerSymbol=AEMD&TimeRange=950&Interval=d&Volume=1&ChartType=CandleStick&Stockscores=1&ChartWidth=1100&ChartHeight=480&avgType1=&movAvg1=&avgType2=&movAvg2=&candles=redgreen[/chart]


===========================================

SEVEN MOS; http://www.stockta.com/
[-chart]www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/candle.pl?cobrand=&symb=GNRC&size=analysis&support=0.00,15,0.00,66,0.00,38,0.00,14,0.00,12,0.00,15,0.00,3,0.00,2,0.00,4,0.00,6,0.00,2&trend=[/chart]


http://www.barchart.com/quotes/stocks/GNRC

SEVEN MOS
[-chart]www.stockscores.com/chart.asp?TickerSymbol=GNRC&TimeRange=180&Interval=d&Volume=1&ChartType=CandleStick&Stockscores=1&ChartWidth=830&ChartHeight=500&LogScale=&Band=&avgType1=&movAvg1=&avgType2=&movAvg2=&Indicator1=None&Indicator2=None&Indicator3=None&Indicator4=None&endDate=&CompareWith=&entryPrice=&stopLossPrice=&candles=redgreen[/chart]


http://www.barchart.com/quotes/stocks/GNRC


2 YEARS;
[-chart]www.stockscores.com/chart.asp?TickerSymbol=AEMD&TimeRange=950&Interval=d&Volume=1&ChartType=CandleStick&Stockscores=1&ChartWidth=1100&ChartHeight=480&avgType1=&movAvg1=&avgType2=&movAvg2=&candles=redgreen[/chart]

http://www.barchart.com/quotes/stocks/GNRC

SEVEN MOS
[-chart]www.stockscores.com/chart.asp?TickerSymbol=GNRC&TimeRange=180&Interval=d&Volume=1&ChartType=CandleStick&Stockscores=1&ChartWidth=830&ChartHeight=500&LogScale=&Band=&avgType1=&movAvg1=&avgType2=&movAvg2=&Indicator1=None&Indicator2=None&Indicator3=None&Indicator4=None&endDate=&CompareWith=&entryPrice=&stopLossPrice=&candles=redgreen[/chart]


http://www.barchart.com/quotes/stocks/GNRC


2 YEARS;
[-chart]www.stockscores.com/chart.asp?TickerSymbol=AEMD&TimeRange=950&Interval=d&Volume=1&ChartType=CandleStick&Stockscores=1&ChartWidth=1100&ChartHeight=480&avgType1=&movAvg1=&avgType2=&movAvg2=&candles=redgreen[/chart]


===========================================

SEVEN MOS; http://www.stockta.com/
[-chart]www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/candle.pl?cobrand=&symb=GNRC&size=analysis&support=0.00,15,0.00,66,0.00,38,0.00,14,0.00,12,0.00,15,0.00,3,0.00,2,0.00,4,0.00,6,0.00,2&trend=[/chart]


http://www.barchart.com/quotes/stocks/GNRC

SEVEN MOS
[-chart]www.stockscores.com/chart.asp?TickerSymbol=GNRC&TimeRange=180&Interval=d&Volume=1&ChartType=CandleStick&Stockscores=1&ChartWidth=830&ChartHeight=500&LogScale=&Band=&avgType1=&movAvg1=&avgType2=&movAvg2=&Indicator1=None&Indicator2=None&Indicator3=None&Indicator4=None&endDate=&CompareWith=&entryPrice=&stopLossPrice=&candles=redgreen[/chart]


http://www.barchart.com/quotes/stocks/GNRC


2 YEARS;
[-chart]www.stockscores.com/chart.asp?TickerSymbol=AEMD&TimeRange=950&Interval=d&Volume=1&ChartType=CandleStick&Stockscores=1&ChartWidth=1100&ChartHeight=480&avgType1=&movAvg1=&avgType2=&movAvg2=&candles=redgreen[/chart]

SEVEN MOS; http://www.stockta.com/



http://www.barchart.com/quotes/stocks/GNRC

SEVEN MOS
[-chart]www.stockscores.com/chart.asp?TickerSymbol=GNRC&TimeRange=180&Interval=d&Volume=1&ChartType=CandleStick&Stockscores=1&ChartWidth=830&ChartHeight=500&LogScale=&Band=&avgType1=&movAvg1=&avgType2=&movAvg2=&Indicator1=None&Indicator2=None&Indicator3=None&Indicator4=None&endDate=&CompareWith=&entryPrice=&stopLossPrice=&candles=redgreen[/chart]


http://www.barchart.com/quotes/stocks/GNRC


2 YEARS;
[-chart]www.stockscores.com/chart.asp?TickerSymbol=AEMD&TimeRange=950&Interval=d&Volume=1&ChartType=CandleStick&Stockscores=1&ChartWidth=1100&ChartHeight=480&avgType1=&movAvg1=&avgType2=&movAvg2=&candles=redgreen[/chart]


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SEVEN MOS; http://www.stockta.com/
[-chart]www.stockta.com/cgi-bin/candle.pl?cobrand=&symb=GNRC&size=analysis&support=0.00,15,0.00,66,0.00,38,0.00,14,0.00,12,0.00,15,0.00,3,0.00,2,0.00,4,0.00,6,0.00,2&trend=[/chart]


http://www.barchart.com/quotes/stocks/GNRC

SEVEN MOS
[-chart]www.stockscores.com/chart.asp?TickerSymbol=GNRC&TimeRange=180&Interval=d&Volume=1&ChartType=CandleStick&Stockscores=1&ChartWidth=830&ChartHeight=500&LogScale=&Band=&avgType1=&movAvg1=&avgType2=&movAvg2=&Indicator1=None&Indicator2=None&Indicator3=None&Indicator4=None&endDate=&CompareWith=&entryPrice=&stopLossPrice=&candles=redgreen[/chart]


http://www.barchart.com/quotes/stocks/GNRC


2 YEARS;
[-chart]www.stockscores.com/chart.asp?TickerSymbol=AEMD&TimeRange=950&Interval=d&Volume=1&ChartType=CandleStick&Stockscores=1&ChartWidth=1100&ChartHeight=480&avgType1=&movAvg1=&avgType2=&movAvg2=&candles=redgreen[/chart]

52-Wk Range 86.29 - 281.50
--------------------Low-----High

Generac Reports Second Quarter 2023 Results
08/02/2023 06:00:32 AM

Form 8-K - Current report
08/02/2023 06:03:42 AM
Generac Reports Second Quarter 2023 Results
08/02/2023 06:00:32 AM

Wednesday’s Wall Street Highlights: CVS Health, Starbucks, Freshworks, EA, AMD and more
08/02/2023 07:59:26 AM
Form 8-K - Current report
08/02/2023 06:03:42 AM
Generac Reports Second Quarter 2023 Results
08/02/2023 06:00:32 AM

Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities
08/03/2023 04:11:31 PM
Wednesday’s Wall Street Highlights: CVS Health, Starbucks, Freshworks, EA, AMD and more
08/02/2023 07:59:26 AM
Form 8-K - Current report
08/02/2023 06:03:42 AM
Generac Reports Second Quarter 2023 Results
08/02/2023 06:00:32 AM

GNRC Latest News
Form 4 - Statement of changes in beneficial ownership of securities
08/03/2023 04:11:31 PM
Wednesday’s Wall Street Highlights: CVS Health, Starbucks, Freshworks, EA, AMD and more
08/02/2023 07:59:26 AM
Form 8-K - Current report
08/02/2023 06:03:42 AM
Generac Reports Second Quarter 2023 Results
08/02/2023 06:00:32 AM

interesting pps today $GNRC

The price is now below all three of my latest sell trades. My cash reserve for GNRC is currently at around 31% of total position value. The current price/share is a healthy 20% discount from my last selling price and slightly below my targeted buy-back to add 12% to share inventory.

I guess it's time to make a buy decision!!!

Thanks,
OAG

"Generac Holdings (GNRC) plunges on lowered outlook amid soft consumer environment
By: Investing.com | August 2, 2023

Generac (NYSE:GNRC) shares fell more than 12% in pre-open Wednesday after the company reported soft Q2 results and lowered its full-year outlook.

Generac posted a profit per share of $1.08 on revenue of $1 billion, which compares to the consensus for earnings of $1.16 per share on revenue of $979.5 million. Sales fell 23% year-over-year on strong weakness in the Residential business segment (-44% YoY).

“As expected, overall second quarter sales declined from a strong prior year comparable period that included the significant benefit of excess backlog reduction for home standby generators,” said Aaron Jagdfeld, president and chief executive officer.

“While leading indicators of end market demand remain strong and we continue to make progress in reducing field inventory levels, residential product sales were modestly lower than our expectations in the quarter as a softer consumer environment for home improvement impacted shipments of home standby generators and chore products.”

As a result, GNRC lowered 2023 revenue guidance to $4.063B at the mid-point, compared to the previous $4.2B. It also cut its 2023 EBITDA outlook by about $85M.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=172495036

Hi B, Re: No Moat and no dividend................

Even so, the price/share keeps rising. I let another 5% of the position go this AM at $145.43 when a GTC Limit hit at the Open. I'm keeping a healthy reserve of cash for this holding which is derived from the sale of small amounts of the shares. Cash is now adding to the total return in the form of interest (where it hadn't for most of the New Millennium!).

GNRC is in my 'sandbox' portfolio of individual company stocks. There are just 10 positions there and it's an IRA, so realized cap gains are welcome. The current short interest on GNRC is still above 8% of float. Price/Book is still expensive and P/E is the same. Price/Sales isn't cheap, either, so managing share inventory and capturing profits when they appear is important.

Best wishes,
OAG

Generac is a no-moat, no-dividend story stock left from the Covid era with tons of competition mostly with better service records. Deere, Caterpillar, Honda and maybe 30 others.

GNRC seems to have found, and is bouncing on a bottom here.
https://schrts.co/CdtYfqCz
Best wishes,
OAG

I let 5% of my GNRC inventory go at $129.67, at today's Open with a GTC Limit order.
Best wishes,
OAG

That's a nice tick upward on GNRC this AM.
OAG

I let 10% of my GNRC position go this AM at $121.76 and reset my next buy and sell targets. It's nice to see some upward mobility here.
Best wishes,
OAG

Someone lit a fire under GNRC's stock price this AM. There has been a relatively significant short position on GNRC for some time. Maybe that is beginning to unwind now since May started.

Best wishes,
OAG

Today I added an additional 12% more shares to my GNRC core holding. This is the first addition since starting the position at the end of March.

So far the markets have not been kind but the future still looks Electric!

Best wishes,
OAG

WAUKESHA, Wis., April 12, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- Generac Industrial Power, one of North America's largest suppliers of power generation equipment and part of Generac Power Systems, Inc. (NYSE: GNRC), a leading global designer and manufacturer of energy technology solutions and other power products, today unveiled its all new zero-emissions SBE series of stationary battery energy storage systems (BESS). The SBE series pairs with Generac's line of gas and diesel generators for full-facility resilience during long-duration blackouts and pairs with on-site solar to help reduce both carbon footprint and energy costs.

I've added GNRC to my IRA account as of yesterday. Preliminary settings for my AIM algorithm are derived from another GNRC holding that has existed since 2014 and seem to have worked well over that time frame.

The 3-5 year potential for price appreciation looks attractive as they continue to pursue their business expansion. That is tempered a bit by rising interest rates, but where available power isn't nearly as reliable as other places, demand should keep business growing even in a higher interest rate environment.

Best wishes,
OAG

Current Generac shareholders who have held Generac stock since before April 29, 2021, can seek corporate reforms, the return of funds spent defending litigation back to the company, and a court approved incentive award, at no cost to them.
https://grabarlaw.com/the-latest/generac-shareholder-investigation/

Elevator going up ?? Way up ??

For an extended period of time, imho.

$$ GNRC $$

Several have forgotten their GNRC loading. LOLOLOL! Lots of customer service complaints harming the performance.

This change in TSLA plans could help GNRC:
https://electrek.co/2022/11/10/tesla-cancels-solar-projects-scales-back-division/

I only know one person locally who's installed solar to help with electric charging of their Tesla. Now that I think about it, I guess I only know one person who owns a Tesla, so I guess it's a 1:1 ratio!

Best wishes,
OAG

"Generac makes 'staffing adjustments' as it slows generator production"

"Generac Power Systems, which supercharged production and employment to meet heavy demand for its home standby generators, is downshifting its plants and making “staffing adjustments” after a buildup of inventories."

https://www.bizjournals.com/milwaukee/news/2022/11/03/generac-staffing-adjustments.html?

IHUB's a damn good contrarian indicator, very much like Robinhood. Generally avoid stocks that are hot with those investors, .

"A disappointing update to the company's 2022 guidance shocked the market last month."

"Investors in Generac Holdings (GNRC -4.72%), a leading manufacturer of generators and other power products, didn't have to wait until Halloween to get scared off last month. Providing a fright in the middle of the month, management dampened shareholders' spirits with a downwardly revised 2022 forecast. In the days that followed, Wall Street's pessimistic attitude toward the stock provided even more fuel for the sell-off."

https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/11/06/why-generacs-stock-plummeted-349-in-october/

Hi FD, Re: GNRC short term and long term potential.......

I'll continue accumulating below $100 and will start to distribute shares if the price gets above $145. Generally, position size change is 10% of total shares at those inflection points. My last purchase was recent at $116+. My last sell took place at around $489/share in October of 2021.

I started the GNRC holding in 2014 at $43.68 with a sizable cash reserve position for it. During the price rise through the peak in 2021 the cash position swelled to being about 2X the original Cash + Stock value. Currently the Stock share position is 39% larger than it was at the start. Cash is near zero at this time.

Keep up the good work. Value Line is quite optimistic about GNRC's future.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom

Just started taking a position here. Thought it might drop down into the $90's, and will add more if it does. First current resistance around $225.

My next target Sell price is about $145 for 10% of the current holding.
It will need to drop nearly 15% from here before I'll consider averaging down again.
OAG

No bounce, going down further IMO, Will need to trade sideways

As of this AM, the share count of GNRC held increased by 25% at this nice discounted price/share. Here's what Value Line has to say about the next 3-5 years for patient investors:



Best wishes,
OAG

Big Ouchie Boo boo

The power equipment maker released preliminary third-quarter results that fell below Wall Street forecasts. Generac said residential sales were pressured during the quarter, and its largest clean-energy customer ceased operations and filed for bankruptcy. Generac tumbled 16.8% in the premarket.

The power equipment maker released preliminary third-quarter results that fell below Wall Street forecasts. Generac said residential sales were pressured during the quarter, and its largest clean-energy customer ceased operations and filed for bankruptcy. Generac tumbled 16.8% in the premarket.

Here's a nice article from BARRON's on Generac:

Generac:

Powering Up Gains of 50% Or More

The maker of backup generators is well-positioned for this age of wildfires and rolling blackouts. Time to buy on the dip.

BY AL ROOT

In theory, record heat waves, Western wildfires, rolling blackouts, and hurricanes should be good news for generator maker

Generac Holdings. But its shares have been falling sharply this year, and that creates an opportunity for investors to pick up a growth stock at a value-stock price.

Waukesha, Wis.–based Generac (ticker: GNRC) is the dominant name in residential standby power generation, with about three-quarters of the U.S. market. Those sales make up about half the company’s revenue, with the remainder coming from commercial and industrial customers, as well as from maintaining those generators.

Little wonder that Generac is known as a storm stock. When superstorm Sandy hammered the Northeast in 2012, Generac’s sales shot up to $1.5 billion in 2013, nearly double what it was two years previously. From there, Generac just kept going. “Any event involving outages, including storms, blackouts, utility failure, whatever, drives increased awareness and therefore increased sales,” says Baird analyst Mike Halloran.

In some places, the company’s backup generators are considered necessities. Jonathan Skyrme of Trumbull, Conn., has a 10-kilowatt generator system that runs on propane, big enough to run most of his house in the event of an outage. Those aren’t uncommon in Skyrme’s rural neighborhood, where branches from old Norway maples seem to come down every time the wind blows. “I love the idea of my system,” he says. “It’s reassuring to know it’s there for the next major weather event.”

There’s more than just bad weather driving power outages these days. Wildfires in California can leave people without power for days, while problems with the grid have knocked out the electricity in Texas at times when it is most needed.

Things are getting worse. The average U.S. electricity customer lost power for more than eight hours in 2020, according to the most recent data available. That’s up more than 100% from 2013, the first year the Energy Information Administration started collecting data.

Just 6% of U.S. households own generators, and expanding that by just one percentage point means another $2.5 billion in addressable market for Generac. That helps explain why the company has been able to increase sales by 340% and earnings by 664% from 2012 through 2022, including estimates. Now, California looks like an untapped market that could fuel fresh growth for Generac.

“California hasn’t been historically a home standby-generator market,” says Credit Suisse analyst Maheep Mandloi. Less than 2.5% of homes there have standby power. States in the Northeast, for instance, have penetration rates between 10% and 20%.

Yet, Wall Street is treating Generac like a broken stock. Its shares have dropped 50%, to $176.57, in 2022, making it the 22nd-worst-performing stock in the S& P 500 this year.

Part of the problem is that Generac is a growth stock that isn’t going to grow much next year. While sales are expected to hit $5.2 billion in 2022, up 39% from 2021, Wall Street expects an increase of just 9.4% for 2023. Slowing growth causes growth investors to dump a stock, and it takes time before

value investors feel comfortable jumping in.

Generac stock might be getting close to that point. Consider that in mid-2021, Generac stock was trading at 40 times the next year’s estimated earnings, double the S& P 500’s already expensive multiple of 20. Shares now trade for just 13 times estimated 2023 earnings, a discount to the broader market. The stock might have been too expensive in 2021, but it looks too cheap now.

It isn’t as if the company’s growth is disappearing. Wall Street expects sales and earnings to grow by an average of 10% and 16%, respectively, in 2023 and 2024. That’s much faster than the market, which is expected to grow earnings at a 7% clip. That also follows a historical pattern for Generac. After superstorm Sandy, sales flatlined between 2013 and 2016, but 2022 sales are expected to be up more than threefold from 2013 levels.

The greening of power generation has raised some concerns about obsolescence; if everyone has solar panels on their roof, no one needs a generator. But solar panels and battery storage still cost multiples of what a Generac system costs, says Credit Suisse’s Mandloi. And batteries can run out if an outage lasts too long.

Generac is investing in clean tech, too. It has acquired companies involved in energy storage, solar inverters— the electric equipment which converts the sun’s direct current into alternating current for homes—along with other products that give dealers more to sell when they are pitching backup power products to potential customers.

The “clean-energy business is still in growth/development mode,” says Baird’s Halloran. “We believe it is a long-term value creator for the company.”

Generac doesn’t have to get back to its former heights to be a good investment. Mandloi has a $395 price target on the stock, among the highest on the Street. Halloran’s target is amoremodest $275 a share, below the average analyst target of $340. But even at Halloran’s lower level, Generac stock would gainmore than 50%—and be trading at just 20 times 2023 earnings, a big discount to its three-year average of almost 26 times.

At these levels, Generac looks like a

great way to power up any portfolio. B

The average U.S. electricity customer lost power for more than eight hours in 2020. That’s up more than 100% from 2013.

GNRC was added to Value Line's Model Portfolio III this week replacing one of their other 20 suggested companies. This Model is developed with companies showing above average 3-5 year appreciation potential.

Over the years this has been a very stable portfolio with very few changes. The long term growth of the holdings has been pretty good along the way, too.



It should help GNRC's exposure to long term investors.

Best wishes,
OAG Tom