Nikola Corporation (NKLA) オプション

DNU, correct. Not a certainty though, just hopeful. And that hope diminishes with each passing day with no action on 45V.

are you saying --- the release that did not include 45V - is good news as it portends 45V soon to come?

The treasury Department released final regulations earlier today (link https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases). Unfortunately, not 45V, nevertheless, a sign of hope, as at least it indicates that the Department is still currently active.

NKLA, new 52 week low

Pretty sure every truck has the end user stamped at the start of the production line.

the higher volumes should be helping as the labor force to produce is a fixed cost so goes down per truck and supplier should be dropping costs even though we are still minnows.

I don't think many BEVs have been returned in Q4 since if you can get 9 battery packs form Protera (not sure if they have recovered from the hurricane) you can ship 3 FCEV to big fleets for evaluation, or to the CA market for HVIP purchase where they have a back log of 100+ orders.

Those recent fly over videos from someone who knows so little about the company confirm this as the number of BEVs a with no batteries remains the same but we know FCEV are shipping

oops
wrong
Should have said 1,500 trucks a year --- same factory - one shift (not added staff)

At $400,000 per truck and 1,500 sold - that is 600,000,000 million dollars a year in GROSS income?

I would hope such income - gross revenue - level brings NKLA to the place where NET cash Income is equal to NET cash expense ----- with the next equity raise of 300-500 Million (plus ongoing sales income as volume rises) and the

Thus the rhyming assumption is that at 1,500 trucks a year --- with the new lower cost of production posted here at IH - NKLA is cash breakeven. (This assumption includes the income from say 500 truck per year run rate hits soon so cash burn rate is noticeably declining each quarter. Everything made must be sold - no space to produce and not get paid

500,000 a year is close to the total truck manufactured every year.
current factory is able to make 12,000 with one shift if I recall, we just did 350 or so in 2024 so volume capability is already built in without any capital needs, just inventory/supply chain commitments.

With Girsky's, and Mary’s, contacts I wonder if they can get customers to either pay a deposit up front or even get a better price in return for capital investment. He is certainly on top of a startegy to get to FCEV2.0 and has been aware of cash needs for the last 15 months but the speed of the falling price seems to have caught him off guard

YOU are adding a lot more meat to the bone

Seems to me - ?? -- that for NKLA to be able to raise 300MM to 500MM CASH via equity offer ---- NKLA will have to show some institutional investors exactly what you SAID -------------------- why costs to produce are down 20% 30% 40% (on a cash basis) ---- why volume on a new FCEV model will be high - say at least 500,000 ++ a year (seeable)

I say that because even the last to invest - the newcomers - have to have a REASON to expect a gain on their EQUITY investment

Note - I decided to NOT buy debt now (with assumption if all goes bad but not horrible - I am the new equity of a continuing NKLA)
WHY? - Another way that NKLA can raise 300-500 million dollars is with SR SR debt ---- that flat out "states in some prospectus" the conditions under which those who buy the new debt are the new equity !!! or ? - with continued promises to pay interest and principal on prior debt .
In this scenario ---- I might be able to buy debt at 80 cents on the dollar now but not be an equity owner - by default.

This is my strategy now as well
$300-400 should be sufficient to get to FCEV 2.0 which Girsky stated was 50% of the cost to produce and so would be gross margin profitable.
Not sure if Bosche is providing the cheaper FC or they are switching to another but many components are currently sourced from overseas. Crictical to this financial profile is the volume needed. That is the current bump in the road. They have shipped trial /evaluation trucks to the major national fleets but so ar on ly one that II know of has placed follow through orders (for 50) . They need national fleets to commit to not just the 50-100 second order but then an on going commitment for hundreds a year agains which they can negotiate the cost of all components - cabs, radiators, high voltage cables, tires. everything gets significantly cheaper when using hundreds a month not hundreds a year

With all the bankruptcy rumors swirling before xmas it cant be easy for anyone to make that sort of commitment

So looking for 300-400m more cash raised and follow through orders before buying back in

My sentence was a bad sentence --- off by a bunch in conveying my thoughts

NKLA may be a hit if it has the cash "to get there" ---- "there" being a bunch more sales and a noticeable decline in cost of production - such that on a cash out basis it is not burning cash (I do not care about past costs or depreciation or such)

To have that shot at cash breakeven - I assume NKLA needs to raise say 300-400MM in cash ---- by burning current equity again
-
Post that burn - #6 or whatever ---- IMO it might be time to load up

If NKLA does a RS now to raise their Stock Price - that does not entice any buying IMO

If NKLW does a reverse split and issues shares to raise say 40MM --- at whatever the number of shares and PPS - but at that price --- which I will not guess at - but the price where NKLA was able to raise 400MM --- there it could be attractive

Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, Happy Holidays to all.

Wrong…

If this stock goes under a buck and is raised to 10 buck with a reverse split, it will be time to short the living snot out of it….

6 months ago the stock was at 15 bucks when the r/s was announced…that’s all the time it took to get to a buck…

With Trump and a new admin coming in that doesn’t give a crap about hydrogen making things tougher for Nkla, what is it about a r/s that will suddenly make it a buy?

Repost from PLUG Stocktwits board, courtesy of Gio_F.


2024 in Clean Energy Tax Credits: Year in Review
December 19, 2024
https://www.whitehouse.gov/cleanenergy/tax-guidance-explainers/2024/12/19/2024-in-clean-energy-tax-credits-year-in-review/

Key excerpt:

"As stated in October 2024 remarks by Aviva Aron-Dine, Performing the Duties of Assistant Secretary for Tax Policy, the Treasury Department and the IRS anticipate issuing additional guidance by the end of the Administration, including final regulations implementing the technology-neutral Clean Electricity Production and Investment Tax Credits (45Y and 48E), the technology-neutral Low-Income Communities Bonus Credit Program (48E(h)), and the Clean Hydrogen Production Credit (45V), as well as additional guidance on the Clean Fuel Production Credit (45Z)."

and - assuming NKLA continues on --- post such dilution is the time to buy - if enough money is collected

Another all-time low hit today. $1.12, no stopping this slide to sub $1, Management team is out matched by competitors and their lenders. Toxic debt continues to destroy value. Next year common holders get to look forward to another RS followed by massive dilution.

jmho

Repost form PLUG board. As a reminder, PLUG is a NKLA partner. https://www.nikolamotor.com/nikola-and-plug-announce-strategic-collaboration-to-push-hydrogen-economy-forward-216

A Christmas Fuel Cell Miracle: Plug Power and More
December 23, 2024
https://fuelcellz.com/christmas-fuel-cell-miracle/

I hope he comes through. If/when it happens, it should be posted here https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases

Hydrogen Tax Credit Rules Will Be Done by the End of the Year
In an exclusive interview, Deputy Treasury Secretary Wally Adeyemo laid out the three big to-do items the department is pushing to finish by January.
October 01, 2024
https://heatmap.news/economy/final-hydrogen-tax-credit-45v

Repost from HYZN board, courtesy of uksausage.

Sad news - HYZON is closing down:
https://ih.advfn.com/p.php?pid=nmona&article=95139186&_gl=1*1ub74as*_gcl_au*NjI2NTk5NDc2LjE3Mjk4NTkwNDk.
60 day period notice to employees
Still trying to find a buyer but probably not going to be successful

Recent Linkedin post.
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/elders-climate-action_eldersforclimate-solutionsforpollution-defendourclimate-activity-7275872690685595648-Poxt

Elders Climate Action’s Post
View organization page for Elders Climate Action, graphic
Elders Climate Action
201 followers
1d

Senators Kelly and Sinema joined Elders Climate Action for an exciting tour of Nikola Corporation's heavy-duty electric vehicle manufacturing facility in Coolidge, AZ. Thanks to the IRA’s $40,000 federal tax credit for zero-emission Class 8 semi-trucks, Nikola is expanding sales nationwide, making clean energy solutions more accessible while boosting Arizona’s economy.

Our ECA members were thrilled to ride in these incredible trucks! Did you know that Nikola’s electric semi-trucks (350-mile range) can go from 0-60 MPH in just 21 seconds with a full 82,000-pound load? Even more impressive, their hydrogen fuel cell trucks (450-mile range) also deliver exceptional performance.

These cutting-edge vehicles are more than just engineering marvels—they represent a cleaner, greener future for transportation and an investment in Arizona jobs.

ok
thank you
I recall - something that could help us was way too attached to green and greener H

did this change or is that what may come out soon or ? we are hoping for more not so green H being supported in these early days as I recall - which makes sense to me - phasing it in

Repost from Hydrogen Hub board, courtesy of delerious1.

U.S. Department of Energy Unveils Updated Hydrogen Program Plan
Plan incorporates new input from multiple DOE offices and provides a strategic framework for clean hydrogen innovation
Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office
December 20, 2024

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) today announced its updated Hydrogen Program Plan, a foundational resource for advancing research, development, demonstration, and deployment (RDD&D) of clean hydrogen technologies. The Hydrogen Program Plan specifically identifies and articulates strategic, high-impact areas of focus across DOE’s Hydrogen Program, a cohesive and coordinated effort involving multiple hydrogen-related offices.

Advancing a coordinated strategy for RDD&D is particularly important for clean hydrogen because it has the potential to be used across virtually all sectors of the economy and it can be produced, stored, and delivered in many ways. A successful strategy will need to integrate efforts in renewable, nuclear, and fossil energy—and coordinate across end uses in multiple sectors of the economy.

This plan provides a strategic framework that incorporates RDD&D efforts of the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management, Office of Nuclear Energy, Office of Electricity, Office of Science, Loan Programs Office, Office of Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chains, Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations, and the Advanced Research Projects Agency – Energy to advance the production, transport, storage, and use of hydrogen.

In 2023, several federal agencies developed the U.S. National Clean Hydrogen Strategy and Roadmap, a comprehensive, nationwide framework for accelerating the production, processing, delivery, storage, and use of clean hydrogen. This 2024 update to the Hydrogen Program Plan explains how DOE offices collaboratively work to efficiently implement the strategies outlined in the Strategy and Roadmap. This new version also includes updated supporting data and analysis, a description of the Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs, information about ambitious DOE-wide goals established through the Hydrogen Shot™, and examples of DOE-wide efforts to establish a strong workforce, maximize technology efficiency and accelerate innovation in the transition to a hydrogen economy.

https://www.energy.gov/eere/fuelcells/articles/us-department-energy-unveils-updated-hydrogen-program-plan

Learn more about the Hydrogen Program Plan.
https://www.hydrogen.energy.gov/library/roadmaps-vision/program-plan

Well, looks like Nikola is underperforming the market again today. So much for outperforming and still finishing in the red the other day. I have a feeling it finishes in the red today...another all-time low hit this morning out of the gate.

POS management team = POS equity

JMHO

Repost from Stocktwits board, courtesy of Gio_F.

One of the first places where the final 45V rule will likely appear is here: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases Last indication is still "before year end". To consider: last year's draft 45V rule was released on Friday, December 22th, 2023. The last Friday before Christmas. Source: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2010 Good luck everyone.

yup...that'll do it alright...lol

Should hit new all-time low again today. Brutal for those still holding this, next up dilution or will they drop a Christmas BK present on shareholders. Absolutely a horrible management team.

jmho

Thank you

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/1AYvWTRvVc/?mibextid=wwXIfr

Related article to the one posted here yesterday.

New Nikola HYLA Hydrogen Station Along California’s I-5
December 18, 2024
https://www.hydrogenfuelnews.com/new-nikola-hyla-hydrogen-station/8568691/

Key excerpts:

Advancements in Hydrogen Engine Technology
Hydrogen engine technology has rapidly evolved, unlocking its potential for commercial transportation. Recent innovations include:

- Efficiency improvements in hydrogen fuel cells have increased vehicle range and reduced energy loss during operation.
- Durability advancements have extended the lifespan of fuel cells, making them more practical for long-haul and heavy-duty applications.
- Faster refueling times, which make hydrogen FCEVs easier to integrate into the trucking industry.
- Lower production costs, thanks to advancements in electrolyzer technology and economies of scale.

Mobile refueling solutions are also being developed to meet the needs of fleets operating in areas without fixed hydrogen stations. These setups can include compact, modular units that are transportable and capable of refueling vehicles on-site, providing increased flexibility for companies.

Back in the red...melting down...should make sub $1 by then end of the year without dilution, with dilution it will be sub .50 cents.

jmho

NKLA has used up a ton of money - and a half ton more they projected - to get this far

along the way of spending a ton of money to get to where they are now - equity got killed - no one argues

the outstanding question today is

can NKLA get to a break even on cash spent and earned without wiping out current equity holders or diluting them again by 30 x

we will see - proof of concept stage is over and a factory that can produce tons of trucks is built and producing

I expect further dilution of my current holdings and do not add. I hope to be able to add at the next "anticipated" dilution

thank you

93 redeemed

ptcgolf, I was responding to your negative/bearish post, presenting a different perspective by pointing out a simple fact. We all know that NKLA has been underperforming the market forever, no need for me to bring it up.

Ok, but I sure didn't see you posting about underperforming the market when it was down 15-20% and the markets were green or just slightly in the red. Those are the facts too.

jmho

ptcgolf, I disagree, not misleading, I'm just stating the facts. NKLA, is currently outperforming the markets, as the markets are currently red by over 1%, and NKLA is up 6%, Again just the facts, not misleading.

DNU, the post you are referring to from yesterday, shows total number of vouchers (Redeemed + Unredeemed). In my previous post earlier today, in response to a comment from Torez, I posted the Redeemed vouchers (reproduced below). I also always post the link to the database, so that you can apply whatever filter you like, and search exactly for what you are most interested in,
Link https://californiahvip.org/impact/#deployed-vehicle-mapping-tool

Outperforming is misleading, it was up .30+ cents on the bounce until Powell's rate cut came out. It is still an equity with horrible management on the cusp of BK. In other words, it is a POS, worth trading only.

jmho

ptcgolf, NKLA is greatly outperforming the overall markets right now, all markets significantly lower due to Fed Chair Powell comments on rates/inflation.

My definition of flat is +- one or two cents.

Torez, check my previous post on the total number of California HVIP Program vouchers for Nikola trucks. You can use the link I posted to filter for Redeemed vouchers (shown below), that's trucks already delivered to customers, and that's just in California. Enjoy.

Link to California HVIP Voucher Program database https://californiahvip.org/impact/#deployed-vehicle-mapping-tool

define flat - as in neither positive nor negative

or do you include say plus 5 cents as FLAT

can you remind how to use this page

How do we know how many were delivered - is that available? I see you filtered by NIKOLA so this is just them ?

Hope everyone took profits off the trade...this will be going back to flat or red by the end of the day.


jmho

I, however, posted this on the evening of the 16th:

"the good news is, nkla has fallen so far down that it cant really drop much further without having some sort of rebound soon..."

and listening to my own advise, i may a very nice quick profit this morning...because its only a bounce...

Funny that whenever an alternative energy company has a bounce, you run over to the board and announce that within the last few days you added a bunch of shares or doubled what you own…

interesting

I too think there are other options if cash gets insanely low v bankruptcy

consider their bonds too ---- but bluntly I looked them up but did not buy

There are zero trucks - all CGI - scam scam scam - from $90 to almost zero with dilution(s)

for the trade makes sense and good luck

DNU, as far as I'm concerned, NKLA is priced for bankruptcy. Since I don't believe it'll go bankrupt, I doubled my position over the last couple of days.

Now that so so so much money has in total been invested and used up by NKLA to get to this spot - I want to continue an equity position

So the irony is --- the stock might go up 100-200-300-400 percent - but if its a total buy out of current owners of NKLA that could be a long term bummer (given how few shares post RS I have and how much I lost (that i can afford)

we may learn more --- bluntly if it stays up 25% or more we should learn more - TODAY

Possibly the end of Tax loss selling. Also, being on the Reg Sho list will spur some short covering. I am in ave 1.20 for the trade.

jmho