DiscoverGold
16時間前
Gold Counter-Trend Gold Rally Nears Crucial 50-Day MA Test
By: Bruce Powers | November 20, 2024
• Gold rallied to $2,655, nearing resistance at the 50-Day MA and Fibonacci retracement levels. A drop below $2,619 could signal weakness.
Gold rallied to a high of 2,655 on Wednesday as the counter-trend rally continued. It is on track to complete a new higher daily high and higher low today, and it looks like the close will be in the top third or so of the day’s trading range. The low for the day was 2,619. However, potential resistance around the 50-Day MA, now at 2,659, looms just above. And the 50% retracement sits a little higher at 2,662.
Shows Strength Heading Towards 50-Day MA
Nonetheless, today’s advance showed strength by rallying above the internal uptrend line. Strength will be confirmed on a clear daily close above it. Since the slightly higher 20-Day MA (purple) has been falling, it is getting closer to the 50-Day line (orange). Therefore, it might be more useful to look at the next higher potential resistance zone above the 50% retracement as a price range from 2,680 to 2,692. There are three levels close together. The 20-Day MA is at 2,680, the peak from September is at 2,686, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is at 2,692.
Recovery from Last Week’s Decline May Take Time
During the decline last week gold fell through several price levels that helped define potential support for the near-term uptrend. The current counter-trend rally will now likely test some of those price areas as resistance. This is typical behavior following a breakdown through a price level that helped define the rising near-term trend.
Prior areas of potential support are approached from below to see if those price areas see resistance. Once resistance is encountered that leads to a bearish reversal, at least a pullback is likely. Moreover, a more decisive bearish reversal could lead to a retest of recent lows or lower prices.
Today’s low at 2,619 is near-term support. A drop below it would change the pattern of three consecutive highly daily highs and higher lows. It could be a warning of lower prices to come or see a quick rebound after a minor drop.
Recent Low at 20-Week MA Support
Considering the weekly chart (not shown), it shows for this week and last week around the 20-Week MA. That is a weekly trend indicator that has done a good job of marking support for the rising trend since October 2023.
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DiscoverGold
2日前
Gold Recovery Eyes 50-Day MA Amid Bullish Momentum
By: Bruce Powers | November 19, 2024
• Gold continues its recovery, heading to test resistance near the 50-Day MA, with a confluence zone higher between 2,684 and 2,692.
Gold made further progress on Tuesday towards a test of resistance around the 50-Day MA, as it broke above Monday’s high and will likely close above it. The high for the day so far is 2,639 and the 50-Day line is at 2,656. Today’s advance also reclaimed the uptrend line and gold may close above the line, which would provide another sign of strength, although minor. Gold could have seen signs of resistance around the line but instead it didn’t look like it mattered as the day’s high of 2,639 was a little above the line.
Counter-Trend Rally Advances
It looks like gold completed a swing low with last week’s low of 2,537. A bullish reversal confirmed with yesterday’s strong advance. The swing low was around the 50% retracement and a prior top. Gold completed a 253 point or 9.1% correction at the low. That’s the biggest drop on a percentage basis since the May 2023 correction.
Even if the low is set for the correction, that doesn’t mean gold goes right back up to new highs. Of course it could, but the more likely scenario looks to be a rally of some degree to test prior support levels as resistance levels. Once resistance is found there will be a pullback and another attempt to reclaim the price level, or a reversal that falls to retest support levels.
Confluence Leaves Clues
One of the reasons that confluence is looked for in technical analysis is that it helps identify potentially stronger levels of support or resistance. Confluence is when two or more (preferred) price levels are identified by analysis near each other. This seems to act like a magnet for price sometimes. For gold, the price range from the confluence of various indicators highlights 2,684 to 2,692. There is the 20-Day MA at 2,684, a prior swing high at 2,686, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2,692. If that price zone does act like a magnet, then gold will reclaim the 50-Day MA on the way up.
As for the bullish case for gold beyond the 20-Day MA, it first needs to close above the 20-Day line. Until then, the expectation is for some time to go by first, starting the current rally and test of possible resistance.
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DiscoverGold
2日前
Gold Markets Continue to See Buyers
By: Christopher Lewis | November 19, 2024
• The gold market rallied a bit in the early part of the session on Tuesday, as the market will be factoring in certain geopolitical issues, as well as the overall momentum from the longer-term trend. Gold is also going to be factoring a lot of other issues as well, including interest rates, especially in the United States.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold markets rallied a bit during the early hours on Tuesday, as we are now testing the 50-day EMA. The 50-day EMA, of course, is an indicator that a lot of people pay close attention to. So, breaking above there then opens up the possibility of a move to the $2,700 level. Short-term pullbacks at this point in time will almost certainly be thought of as value propositions. And with that being the case, I think you’ve got a situation where you are looking for some type of value. The trendline has been so prevalent for some time now that I think most traders are watching should continue to be support and breaking down below there could open up a move to the $2,500 level.
All things being equal though, I do think that gold will eventually go looking to the $2,800 level, which is where we have recently seen the market pull back from. In general, I think gold is going to continue to get a little bit of a boost as the war in Ukraine seems to be heating up again, at least as far as the rhetoric is concerned. So, with that, I think gold remains a buy on the dip type of market and I do think the trend is very much intact, and it looks just as strong as it did a few months ago. With this, a lot of value hunters are getting involved.
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NYBob
3日前
Gold Bounces Back After Six-Day Slump, Eyes Fed Comments
Gold prices rebounded on Monday after six consecutive sessions of losses, driven by a pause in the U.S. dollar’s rally.
The spot price is trading at $2,604.71 per ounce, up $41.46 and moving away from a two-month low hit on Thursday.
Silver is trading at $30.92, up 65 cents.
This rebound comes after gold experienced its biggest weekly decline in over three years due to expectations of
less aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Investors are now awaiting comments from Federal Reserve officials for clarity on the interest rate trajectory.
The recent U.S. economic data has reduced expectations for a December rate cut by the Fed, with at least
seven U.S. central bank officials scheduled to speak this week.
Analysts suggest that while the short to medium-term outlook for gold may be negatively impacted by a
strengthening U.S. dollar, the long-term inflationary effects of President Trump’s policies could benefit gold prices.
Aris Mining Corp. ARMN: Undervalued with big potential
Given recent Gold price surge, I updated Aris' 2 operating mines NPV
(both FS still use 1400-1900/oz gold price). My finding is Marmato NPV
alone is worth Aris' entire market cap today.
With very conservative valuation (acqusition cost for Soto Norte and Toroparu),
Aris trades at ~65c for $1 in my calc.
I also revisit Soto Norte, and shows why it is a promising virgin land that waiting
to be harvested, and have great potential as much as Marmato and Segovia.
Detailed writeup here, let me know what you think.
https://underhood.substack.com/p/a-junior-gold-miner-with-big-potential
Post by siyuli on Oct 09, 2024 5:09pm
3 # Views - Click to view104
Comment
Bullish
DiscoverGold
4日前
Gold's Mid-Term Decline Phase in Full Force
By: Jim Curry | November 17, 2024
From the comments made in my prior articles, Gold was in mid-term topping range, and with that was at risk to a larger-degree price decline. That decline phase is now in full force with the action in recent weeks, and should have more to run before forming the next key bottom.
Gold's 72-Day Cycle
The 72-day cycle is the most dominant cycle in the Gold market, and is shown again on the chart below:
From my 10/27/24 article: "The next larger swing top has been expected to come from this 72-day cycle - which is well into extended range for its peak to form. Once this wave does top, then the downside 'risk' - and ideal price magnet - will be back to the 72-day moving average. However, based upon the position of our 310-day wave, the probabilities are good that the next peak for the 72-day wave will also top the larger cycle."
As mentioned above, our 72-day cycle was into extended range for a peak - with its most recent upward phase able to hold up into pre-presidential election. From there, however, the post-election action has seen the metal getting hammered, falling some 9.2% off the top in just over 11 trading days.
The above action is not uncommon, as markets always fall so much faster than they go up. This is even more true following an extended upward phase, where the rubber band is 'stretched'. As noted, the analysis called for a drop back the 72-day moving average for Gold, which has obviously been met with the sharp decline.
In terms of time, the detrend that tracks our 72-day wave has now locked in on the late- November to early-December window for its next trough to form. In terms of patterns, that decline is anticipated to end up as countertrend - which is not too telling overall - as Gold only has to remain above the June low of 2351.10 (December, 2024 contract), the prior trough for this 72-day component.
As for positioning, due to technical considerations, we entered long Gold (via the GLD) at the 6/7/24 open, and exited that position on 10/21/24 for a tidy profit - thus avoiding the precipitous decline that followed. We will be looking to re-position at some point going forward, once the technical configuration of the market sets itself up.
The 310-Day Cycle
Above the 72-day wave for Gold, there is the larger 310-day cycle, which last bottomed back in October of last year - and is shown on the chart below:
From my last article: "the larger 310-day cycle is currently going over a very wide peak. In terms of price, key resistance is near the intersection of the upper 310-day and four-year cycle channels, which we are currently testing - though this level is rising daily, as the channels are also rising. Once this 310-day wave does top, the probabilities will favor a sharp correction playing out into what looks to be the first few months of next year."
As mentioned in my recent articles for Gold-Eagle, Gold was in the process of testing key mid-term resistance, which was identified as the crossing point of the upper 310-day and four-year cycle channels - which you can see on our 310-day chart. That level capped the rally, giving way to the sharp decline that followed.
With the above said and noted, the mid-term decline phase should have further to run, though should be nearing at least a short-term bottom. In terms of price, the 310-day moving average is viewed as the potential downside 'risk' for the current mid-term down phase, which is projected to bottom around the Spring of next year, but with a large plus or minus variance in either direction.
Going further, the lower four-year channel (shown in red, on our 310-day cycle chart) is seen as key long-term support for Gold. This lower four-year channel is also at or near our 310-day moving average, adding weight to this assessment. In terms of patterns, the mid-term decline phase is anticipated to end up as a larger countertrend affair.
For the bigger picture, once the next 310-day trough is in place, then the probabilities will favor another sharp rally of some 20-25% or more playing out in the months to follow, before eventually topping the larger-tracked four-year cycle. From there, a much bigger percentage decline would be expected to play out.
Gold's Short-Term View
For the very short-term, even with a mid-term downward phase deemed to be in force for Gold, the metal should be at or nearing a very sharp short-term rally, coming from the smallest cycle that we track, the 10-day component:
With the above said and noted, the next upward phase of our 10-day cycle - once confirmed in force - would be expected to see a sharp rally, ideally taking prices back to - at minimum - the 10-day moving average. Having said that, due to the position of a larger tracked 20-day wave, there would be the potential for that rally to move on up to the higher 20-day moving average.
Having said the above, the patterns will strongly favor the coming short-term rally for Gold to end up as a countertrend affair, due to the position of the bigger 72 and 310-day cycles. With that, we have a key upside 'reversal point' for the short-term cycles, which - when taking out to the upside - will be the trigger for the coming short-term rally, with exact details always noted in our thrice-weekly Gold Wave Trader report.
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DiscoverGold
5日前
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | November 16, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 12, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 236.5k, down 18.9k.
The week began by gold slicing through its 50-day on Monday. This was then followed by four more sessions of selling, ending the week down 4.6 percent to $2,570/ounce.
A couple of weeks ago, after rallying in six of seven weeks, a gravestone doji showed up on the weekly. Since then, the metal has dropped back-to-back. On October 30, gold reached a new high of $2,802. On the way to that peak, there were several breakouts – $2,610s eight weeks ago, $2,540s-50s nine weeks ago and $2,440s-50s in August.
Gold bugs can take solace in the fact that $2,540s-50s remains intact, with Thursday’s intraday drop to $2,542 attracting buying interest. The daily has gotten oversold, so a rally is possible. Else, bears will be eyeing $2,440s-50s, with the 200-day at $2,409.
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DiscoverGold
5日前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 16, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 25701 and is trading up about 24% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. At present, this market has been rising for 12 months going into November suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 25415 while it's even trading beneath last month's low of 26188.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Clearly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
The perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 25957.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 21 weeks reaching a high during the week of October 28th at 28018. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks, which has been a significant move of 9.290% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 23042 as it has fallen back reaching only 25415 which still remains 10.29% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is cautiously starting to weaken since the previous high at 5074 made 1926 weeks . Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 28th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 27087 made back during the week of September 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past 2 weeks and it finished in a weak position right now warning we need to pay attention.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 23 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
6日前
Gold Hold Support That Could Lead to a Bounce
By: Bruce Powers | November 15, 2024
• After testing support near 2,532, gold eyes resistance at 2,619 while contending with the impact of significant technical breakdowns from earlier this week.
Gold traded inside day on Friday, with a high of 2,581 and a low of 2,554. That range is contained with the price range from Thursday. Today’s price action represents a rest following the successful test of support yesterday. Yesterday ended with a bullish hammer candlestick pattern. However, the pattern needs a trigger to be valid and that would happen on a rally above Thursday’s high of 2,581.
Support Holds Around Prior High
Support was seen yesterday around prior resistance at the August high of 2,532 and a 50% retracement level at 2,534. Also, notice that an extended bottom channel line from a prior bull flag formation also identifies possible support around yesterday’s lows. So, there is some technical evidence pointing to a possible bottom that could at least lead to a bounce. But first an advance above yesterday’s high is needed.
Breakdown of Rising Channel May Take Time to Recover
The current correction did some technical damage on the way down that may need a little time to be fully resolved. There was a decisive decline below the 50-Day MA, internal uptrend line, and a prior daily swing low that is also a monthly low. It was the first time in nine months that a prior monthly low had been broken to the downside. Moreover, the drop through the trendline triggered a breakdown of a rising parallel trend channel.
The channel represented some degree of symmetry and now that symmetry has been broken. It also improves the chance that gold may eventually test support around the lower rising uptrend line. That would be a natural progression of price following such a clear channel break. The price represented by the line would depend on when it was reached.
Bullish Reversal Above 2,619
A bullish reversal from yesterday’s lows has gold heading up into potential resistance at the prior swing low of 2,600, then Thursday’s high at 2,619. Thursday’s high can be used as a rough proxy for the trendline price for now. Then there is the 50-Day MA at 2,652, currently. Given the potential significance of the breakdowns, it would not be surprising to see a rally into resistance, to be followed by a drop that tests the week’s lows and possibly breaks below it. That scenario may start to change on a daily close above the 50-Day MA.
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DiscoverGold
7日前
Gold Bullish Hammer Pattern Hints at Potential Recovery
By: Bruce Powers | November 14, 2024
• After reaching a new trend low, gold bounced back, forming a bullish pattern that may signal a bottom if support at 2,537 holds.
Gold looks to be trying to establish a bottom as it fell to a new trend low of 2,537 on Thursday before buyers took back control and generated a strong bounce. This puts gold on track to end the day forming a bullish hammer candlestick pattern. Support was seen in an area previously discussed around the August high of 2,532 and the 50% retracement level at 2,534.
Also, notice that today’s low was near the lower extended trendline from an earlier bull flag formation. In other words, today’s low is a logical area to find resistance that may lead to a sustained bullish reversal
Bullish Reversal Indicated Above 2,681
A bullish reversal will be triggered on a decisive rally above today’s high of 2,681, at the time of this writing. Some technical damage was done during the current decline as support failed first at the 20-Day MA, then the 50-Day MA failed. That was followed by a monthly bearish reversal of October’s price range on a drop below the daily swing low of 2,602, which was also the monthly low.
Those indicators all show potential resistance levels on the way up, assuming today’s low is sustained. If it is not and today’s low is broken to the downside, then crude oil looks likely to approach a possible support zone from 2,484 to 2,473. The top level is a prior resistance top, and it is followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Brief Dip Below 20-Week Moving Average
It is also interesting to note that the drop today briefly put the price of crude oil below the 20-Week MA (not shown), which is at 2,556. The 20-Week MA maintained support almost 100% of the time since it was reclaimed during the week of October 16. It provides additional evidence for a potential low today, at least on a temporary basis. And it has proven to be a viable trend indicator and should continue to do so. This means that a drop below today’s low will also further confirm a breakdown of the long-term weekly moving average.
Rise Above 2,619 Needed
Crude oil needs to rally above and stay above Wednesday’s high of 2,619 to have a chance at going higher. Resistance around the internal uptrend will also need to be watched as it is currently around yesterday’s high. That trendline should provide clues as it is also the bottom support line for a rising parallel trend channel. The channel shows symmetry within the uptrend. That symmetry was broken on the drop below the lower line, and the next lower trendline is down a bit on the way to the 200-Day MA at 2,398.
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DiscoverGold
1週前
Gold Sinks to New Low, Bearish Trend Gains Momentum
By: Bruce Powers | November 13, 2024
• Gold continues its downtrend, breaking through major support levels, with key price levels of 2,534 and 2,484 in focus as selling pressure remains high.
Selling again dominated trading in gold on Wednesday as it fell to a new trend low of 2,575. Also, it continues to trade near the lows of the day at the time of this writing and may fall further before the end of the day. The bearish correction saw gold drop through the 50-Day MA on Monday, an uptrend line and monthly low at 2,602 on Tuesday, and reach a new low today. Downward momentum has been steady with lower prices likely. A daily close below the prior trend low of 2,590 will further confirm the bear trend.
Targets 50% Retracement at 2,534
Indications are that gold is heading towards a test of support around the 50% retracement at 2,534 and prior resistance at 2,532. The lower price was also the highest traded price for August. Also, 2,532 begins a price range down to approximately 2,484. Support might be seen anywhere within that range. Subsequently, the next lower target looks to be a range from 2,484 to 2,473. The first price level is a prior trend high from July, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2,473.
Monthly Bearish Reversal Triggered
Following a break below the October low yesterday, natural gas confirmed the breakdown by ending the day below the monthly low. The monthly trend of higher monthly highs and higher lows has persisted for eight months until now. This is a bearish sign on the larger time frame indicating further selling pressure for the precious metal.
Downtrend Progresses
Notice that resistance today was seen at a high of 2,619, a clear test of resistance at the internal trendline. The line was previously representing support but since the drop below the line this week, it now represents potential resistance. And it acted as an area of resistance today as gold turned back down once it was hit. In a downtrend, once support is broken and then subsequently successfully tested as resistance, the decline is ready to proceed.
That is what we see today. Since the close for today will likely occur in the lower quarter of the day’s price range and below yesterday’s low of 2,590, sellers remain clearly in charge. So, the next lower target zone is looking more likely to be reached before this correction is over.
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DiscoverGold
1週前
Gold Continues to See Uptrend Effect After CPI
By: Christopher Lewis | November 13, 2024
• The Consumer Price Index numbers came out as expected in the early hours of the US Wednesday session, and as a result, it looks as though the gold market could very well continue the overall longer term uptrend that we have been in previously.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The $2,600 level has offered a bit of support as the large round psychologically significant figure has now proven itself to at least be interesting. The consumer price index numbers in the United States came out as expected early on Wednesday, so therefore I think you have a little bit of a relief here. Whether or not we can continue to go to the upside remains to be seen, but really at this point in time, I think you have to look at this through the prism of a market that is offering enough value that people are willing to step in and take advantage of it.
Even if we were to break down below there, then we could go down to the $2,500, where I think at that level, we would see a lot of psychological importance as well. But with this being the case, it’s interesting that we would bounce from here because we have dropped so hard from the $2,800 level. And I think given enough time, we will probably try to get back there. Keep in mind that central banks around the world are buying gold.
And of course, central banks around the world are also cutting interest rates. So, with all of that being said, I think it lines up quite nicely for gold to go higher. The geopolitics piece might be cooling off a little bit because it does seem like the United States may be less interventionalist. And that could bring a lot of these wars to the negotiation table. It’s early, but that’s the hope with the new Trump administration. Gold’s been in an upturn for quite some time. That would be reason enough to be looking for buying opportunities. So, we’ll have to see if we can pick up a little bit of momentum here.
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DiscoverGold
1週前
Gold Decline Deepens, Eyes Key Support Levels
By: Bruce Powers | November 12, 2024
• Gold's bearish trend deepens as it breaks key support levels, signaling potential for an extended correction to the 2,532 zone.
Gold continued its bearish retracement on Tuesday, with a new low of 2,590 before it encountered at least short-term support. Two key price indicators were broken on the way down, the internal uptrend line and a prior swing low, which is also a monthly low.
Gold looks like it will be closing weak, in the red and below the trendline. A daily close below the line improves the chance for an eventual retracement down to the previous breakout level around 2,532. Also, a daily close below the monthly low 2,602 would be bearish.
Second Week of Correction
A new record high of 2,790 for gold was reached two weeks ago. It was quickly followed by a pullback that continues. The weekly pattern was the giveaway. That week closed as a bearish reversal doji shooting star (not shown) and a bearish signal triggered last week. This week is the second week down and it shows no sign of reversing.
Gold is in a waterfall type decline that could certainly test lower prices before it is done. Bearish sentiment was recently reflected in the 20-Day MA recently crossing below the 50-Day after being above it since July 3. Moreover, a daily close below the 2,602 monthly lows may prolong the correction.
Monthly Price Levels
The monthly price patterns have significance as they impact on the shorter time frames. Today is the first instance in nine months of a prior month’s low being violated. Starting in March, gold progressed with a series of higher monthly lows and higher monthly highs, largely. That pattern was violated today and if the breakdown continues to be confirmed it could lead to a deeper and longer correction in the price of gold.
Lower Targets?
The 2,532-price zone has a good chance of being reached if downward pressure in the price of gold continues. There is also an interim price zone to watch around 2,557 to 2,551, consisting of the 20-Week MA and the 127.2% extended target for an intraday falling ABCD pattern. The 20-Week MA is a potentially significant support area as it last marked support in early-August. It has largely seen gold traded above it since October 2023.
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DiscoverGold
1週前
Gold’s Path After Breaking to New All-Time High
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne | November 11, 2024
Earlier this year, Gold broke out of its cup-and-handle pattern and made its biggest breakout in 50 years.
It has steadily climbed higher but could be experiencing its first notable post-breakout correction.
There were three other instances in the last half century when Gold broke to a new all-time high.
The first chart shows Gold in the 1970s, including the two breakouts to new all-time highs.
Gold eclipsed its 1968 peak at the start of 1972 and shot higher until the summer. Then it corrected 14%, which ended with a test of its 200-day moving average. There was no retest of the breakout.
Later that decade, Gold recovered from its nasty bear market and eclipsed its 1974 peak at the end of 1978. Then, Gold quickly corrected 21%, retested the breakout, and bottomed at its 200-day moving average.
In the autumn of 2009, Gold broke $1000/oz. It surpassed $1200/oz before correcting 14%, down to its 150-day moving average.
At present, Gold has climbed roughly 73% from its 2022 low.
It closed the week at $2695. The 200-day moving average is $2395, and the 150-day moving average is $2486. Both are rising sharply.
In each of the past three breakouts to new all-time highs, Gold tested its 150-day or 200-day moving average not long after its breakout. The 200-day moving average should reach $2500 by January.
Note how Gold performed after the tests of the 200-day moving average at the end of 1972 and the end of 1978. In both cases, Gold exploded higher over the next 14 months.
The chart below plots the performance of the three breakouts to new all-time highs on the scale of the current breakout.
Both averages (one for all three and the other for the weaker two of the three) show that after a correction, Gold could recover early next year and then gain momentum in the spring.
Gold could reach $3000/oz or even higher before a correction begins.
The other scenario is that the real correction has begun, and Gold could test $2500/oz and its 200-day moving average.
In any case, let’s examine Gold’s performance following the first correction after breaking to new all-time highs.
In the early 1970s, it surged 200% over the next 15 months. At the end of the 1970s, it exploded by 400% in only 14 months. After the test of the 150-day moving average in early 2010, it advanced 51% in 15 months.
Following the weakest of the three would take Gold to nearly $3800/oz by the end of Q1 2026.
The current weakness is a gift. Use it to identify and focus on juniors with quality assets and value.
You will want to position before Gold explodes higher against the 60/40 portfolio and breaks out of its 45-year base against inflation.
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DiscoverGold
2週前
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | November 9, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of November 5, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 255.3k, down 23.3k.
Last week, after rallying in six of seven weeks, a gravestone doji showed up on the weekly. It was a sign of exhaustion, and the metal gave back two percent this week to $2,695/ounce. From gold bugs’ perspective, the good thing is that Thursday’s low of $2,650 was bought, with the 50-day ($2,662) breached intraday but defended by close.
On the daily, it is possible gold rallies a bit more, but it remains way overbought on the weekly.
Before this week’s decline, the yellow metal rallied relentlessly from June when it ticked $2,305. Since then, there have been several breakouts – $2,610s seven weeks ago, $2,540s-50s eight weeks ago and $2,440s-50s in August. These are all potential supports now.
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DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2週前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 9, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 26948 and is trading up about 30% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. Up to now, this market has been rising for 12 months going into November suggesting that this has been a bull market trend on the monthly time level which has been confirmed by electing all of our model's long-term Bullish Reversals from the key low.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Distinctly, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Focusing on our perspective using the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 27334 and support forming below at 26834. The market is trading closer to the support level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. Afterwards, the market bounced for 21 weeks reaching a high during the week of October 28th at 28018. Since that high, we have been generally trading down for the past week, which has been a significant move of 5.407% in a reactionary type decline. Nonetheless, the market still has not penetrated that previous low of 23042 as it has fallen back reaching only 26503 which still remains 15.02% above the former low.
When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a semi neutral posture despite declining from the previous high at 28018 made 1 week ago. Still, this market is within our trading envelope which spans between 24565 and 28257. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 28th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 27087 made back during the week of September 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 26544. Additional support is to be found at 26462. From a pointed viewpoint, this market has been trading down for the past week and it finished in a weak position right now warning we need to pay attention.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Interestingly, the NY Gold Futures has been in a bullish phase for the past 23 months since the low established back in November 2022.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2週前
Gold Consolidates Between Major Moving Averages
By: Bruce Powers | November 8, 2024
• Gold consolidates between key moving averages, with resistance at 2,719 and support at 2,643, indicating potential for an eventual breakout following further consolidation
Gold backed off on Friday having found resistance around 2,710. That price level is just below the key resistance area represented by the 20-Day MA, currently at 2,719. Notice that the 20-Day line has converged with the uptrend line and that they each mark a similar price area, more so than before Wednesday’s sharp decline.
Yesterday, support was clearly seen at a low of 2,643, thereby completing a successful test of both the 50-Day MA and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Although gold is down for the day, today’s narrow range day is contained in the top half of Thursday’s price range, reflecting minor short-term strength as the pullback today could have been more significant.
Range Bound Until Moving Average Broken
This week’s price action leaves the price of gold contained between resistance around the 20-Day MA at 2,719, and support at the 50-Day MA at 2,643. This may lead to further consolidation between the two moving averages or a move through one of the price levels.
Notice that the 50-Day line accelerated its angle of ascent around early-October. It began to rise away from the internal trendline, which is also a lower parallel channel line. That behavior is consistent with a rise in demand and improving bullish momentum. Yesterday, was the first test of support at the 50-Day MA following the bullish reversal from the line on August 5.
Monthly Support at 2,602
The swing low at 2,602, which is also the bottom of a bull flag pattern, makes up the trend structure of higher swing lows. Therefore, a drop below it will show a change in that price structure and increase the potential for a continuation lower. Importantly, the 2,602-price low was also support for the month of October.
Strong Trend of Higher Monthly Lows
Since February, gold has progressed for nine months with a series of higher monthly lows and higher highs, other than June, which was an inside month. November is also shaping up as a possible inside month pattern. It looks like there is a good chance that gold may complete the month in a similar position. What this means is that the pattern of higher monthly lows defines strength of the uptrend and that a drop below a monthly low will be a clear change in the pattern. Once that happens the potential for a deeper retracement increases.
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DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
2週前
Gold Finds Support Near Key Levels, Eyes 20-Day Resistance
By: Bruce Powers | November 7, 2024
• Gold trades between 50-Day MA support and 20-Day resistance, signaling potential strength or additional downside tests if support breaks.
Gold fell to 2,643 on Thursday before finding support and bouncing. Support was found around the convergence of the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at 2,642 and the 50-Day MA at 2,639. There is also support from the four-week low. Gold will likely end with gains for the day following a sharp decline through key support areas yesterday.
Today’s bounce is counter that trend and heading towards a test of resistance around the 20-Day MA, now at 2,717. This puts gold sandwiched between potential resistance around the 20-Day MA and support defined by the 50-Day MA. At the time of this writing the high of the day was 2,705 and trading continues near the highs of the day.
Might Today End the Retracement?
Certainly, today’s low could be the end of the bearish retracement for gold following last week’s record high of 2,790. First, gold would need to reclaim the 20-Day line and then this week’s high of 2,643. Until then, the potential for additional tests of support and a possible move lower may yet occur. The monthly low from October is at 2,602, and it is also the bottom of the recent bull flag pattern.
Bearish Reversal, Top of Channel
One reason for a possible lower test of support is the rising trend channel in gold. Resistance was seen recently at the top of the channel and a failed breakout. Therefore, a swing to the low end of the channel could be forthcoming. The lower trendline used only two points and it has not been approached since drawn following the August swing low. This would seem to increase the potential for such a move since the cycle typically sees a move to the other side of the channel once a reversal occurs from one side. Nevertheless, this only becomes likely if the 50-Day line support is broken.
The 50-Day MA has not been properly tested as support since it was reclaimed on July 3, other than for some quick tests shortly after the breakout. It therefore should have a good chance of retaining support, in this case particularly because the 78.6% retracement identifies a similar level as being potentially significant.
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