trunkmonk
15時間前
yup, they get it. and they are absorbing every ounce of it domestically mined, buying up cheap gold from everywhere else, they know the Fed and LBMA along with others control the Futures market on silver and gold, they have government Market Makers full time. They have hundreds of pieces of paper shares for every oz of gold and silver. They know the Fed is accumulating while suppressing it down. Never has there been so little physical metals available for sale. BOOOM time coming, the cracks are forming everywhere, Yellen screwed along with Powel, Debt is uncontrollable, GDP aint going anywhere in proportions to Debt and getting worse, negative real rates are here to stay cause real inflation isnt even accounted for, as in cheating. Its gonna be HUUUUUUGA, gold and tokens are the worlds only hope, and Japan most of all gets it, then China, then BRICS in general.
DiscoverGold
3日前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 28, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 26319 and is trading up about 27% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. At the moment, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 26810, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in December is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. We have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 26358 and support forming below at 26242. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of November 11th at 25415, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of October 28th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of December 16th, which has been a move of 2.272%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 27613 failed to exceed the previous high of 28018 made back during the week of October 28th. That rally amounted to only six weeks. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action as well as trend. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 6 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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DiscoverGold
3日前
Gold Battles Resistance Around 20-Day Moving Average
By: Bruce Powers | December 27, 2024
• Gold remains under pressure, with repeated rejections at the 20-Day MA signaling potential bearish reversal and a downside target of $2,582 in play.
Gold failed to reclaim the 20-Day MA again on Friday with a high of 2,638 for the day. Thursday’s high also tested resistance around the 20-Day line and gold was rejected to the downside then as well. Notice that the highs for the past two days were also testing resistance around a downtrend line (dotted). Two technical changes occurred today that deserve attention.
First, gold is set to end the day down and in the lower half if not the lower third of the day’s trading range. And second, today’s price action generates a lower daily high and lower daily low. This could be the beginning of a bearish reversal from a test of the 20-Day MA as resistance, which would be bearish.
Downtrend Remains Dominant
If further weakness follows today’s minor pullback the force of the downtrend could exert influence again and lead to the continuation of a developing ABCD pattern. The initial target from the pattern is 2,475 and it is where the declining measured moves are equal. Once equal, a potential pivot has been identified. However, analysis of gold’s trading history shows confluence of other indicators around the 2,475 target as well. This means it shows the potential to be a strong support zone and therefore can be considered as possibly a maximum lower target for gold if the current bearish correction continues.
Follow-Through Key Determinant
Alternative scenarios are that gold breaks nearby support levels and weakens but continues to trade above support from the November low (B) at 2,537 and then consolidates. Or it breaks out above the 20-Day MA, currently at 2,641, and heads towards a test of resistance around the top downtrend line. Five-day support is at 2,608 but it may easily be broken. A more significant potential support level is around this week’s low of 2,608 as it is a weekly low. This week will end as an inside week and therefore a drop through the bottom triggers a breakdown from an inside week.
Long-Term Bull Trend Retained
It is interesting to note that on the weekly chart (not shown) gold has traded above support of the 20-Week MA for most of time since it was reclaimed back in October 2023. There were several short dips below the line since then, but gold quickly recovered and there was never a week that closed below the 20-Week line. That could begin to change this week, but we’ll have to wait another week to find out.
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DiscoverGold
3日前
Gold’s Remarkable Year
By: Adam Hamilton | December 27, 2024
Gold truly enjoyed a remarkable 2024, relentlessly powering higher to many new records. Gold achieved a rare monster-status upleg, which proved extraordinarily-unusual. Big gains stacked up despite extreme overboughtness, speculators’ exceedingly-overextended gold-futures positioning, and American stock investors not yet chasing gold’s upside. Several sources of major global demand coalesced for the heavy lifting.
For the past quarter-century, I’ve been in the contrarian-financial-newsletter business. All day everyday I’m blessed to study the markets, actively trade mostly gold stocks, and share all my research and trades with our newsletter subscribers. Few people in the world have been as deeply-immersed in gold and its miners’ stocks as I have. Coming from this meticulous heavily-studied perspective, 2024 was totally unique.
One year ago this week, gold was trading around a then-nominal-record $2,075. Some optimism was building, as in early December 2023 gold had just carved its first record close in fully 3.3 years. Yet at $2,071, that certainly wasn’t materially better than early August 2020’s $2,062. Incidentally gold’s run leading into that was its last monster-status upleg, soaring to 40%+ gains without any 10%+ corrections.
My first 2024 essay published back in early January was “Gold’s 2024 Breakout Upleg”. It pointed out “New records generate bullish financial-media coverage putting gold back on investors’ radars. They’ve always loved chasing winners, and will pile in to ride gold’s upside momentum.” So I wrote “With record-chasing momentum buying kicking in soon, it’s hard to imagine this current upleg not at least challenging 25%.”
“If today’s upleg only matures to 25%, that would still boost gold way up near $2,275. There will be many record closes between $2,077 and there, which will greatly boost bullish financial-media gold coverage and investor interest.” A year ago $2,250+ gold for the first time ever seemed doable, but hopeful and nowhere near certain. $2,050ish had been a graveyard in the sky for gold uplegs for several long years.
Indeed gold stalled early on, drifting 4.2% lower to $1,991 by mid-February. The problem was American stock investors weren’t piling in to chase gold’s upside momentum, which was necessary to fuel major gold uplegs. While gold was still a solid 9.4% higher from early-October-2023’s $1,820 upleg-birthing low, the combined holdings of the dominant GLD and IAU gold ETFs actually fell 3.8% or 48.2 metric tons!
These mighty American gold ETFs are the largest in the world by far, launched way back in November 2004 and January 2005. According to the World Gold Council’s comprehensive global data, exiting 2023 GLD and IAU together commanded 39.6% of all the gold bullion held by all the world’s physically-backed gold ETFs! A UK gold ETF at merely 6.9% was a distant third. Gold’s fortunes often depended on GLD and IAU.
These dominant gold ETFs are a conduit for the vast pools of American stock market capital to slosh into and out of gold. When American stock investors flood into GLD and IAU shares faster than gold is being bought, their prices threaten to decouple from gold’s to the upside. So their managers have to issue sufficient new shares to absorb that excess demand, using the proceeds to buy more gold bullion.
GLD and IAU gradually grew popular in the late 2000s, and since then gold has rarely achieved a major upleg over 25% without big capital inflows into them. And a monster 40%+ gold upleg not driven by huge GLD+IAU holdings builds seemed impossible. Gold’s last two monster uplegs both crested in 2020, at enormous 42.7% and 40.0% gains. American stock investors piling in overwhelmingly fueled both of them.
During the first before March 2020’s pandemic-lockdown stock panic, GLD+IAU holdings soared 30.4% or 314.2t. Then in the second blasting higher out of that extreme-fear event, they skyrocketed a gargantuan 35.3% or 460.5t! Had I known a year ago that American stock investors would totally ignore gold in 2024, I would’ve been way-less-bullish. Gold-futures speculators could push it higher, but their capital is quite finite.
Gold’s record-momentum-chasing dynamic failed to kick in this year because American stock investors were enthralled by the AI stock bubble. Gold has always been the leading alternative asset, the ultimate portfolio diversifier. Investors are most open to allocating more capital to gold when stock markets are weakening on balance. But in January and February, the flagship S&P 500 achieved fully 14 record closes!
Yet despite American stock investors being missing in action from gold, it rocketed higher in early March. On that month’s opening couple trading days, gold surged with 2.0% and 1.6% gains to new records of $2,083 and $2,115! Speculators stampeded into gold-futures longs after a top Fed official’s speech seemed to hint at new quantitative-easing bond monetizations possible, which was likely misinterpreted.
Specs bought an astoundingly-huge 55.0k long contracts that week, the fourth-highest ever witnessed! In seven trading days starting with that speech, gold surged 6.8% to $2,181. Despite those seven record closes in a row, American stock investors didn’t care. In mid-March, GLD+IAU holdings still slumped to a shocking 4.5-year secular low! Who needed gold when euphoric AI stocks were rocketing parabolic?
Yet gold kept blasting higher anyway, achieving twelve more nominal record closes into mid-April way up at $2,388. But neither American stock investors nor gold-futures speculators were doing any meaningful buying! With gold’s usual drivers not explaining its record-shattering surge, we had to wait for the World Gold Council’s outstanding quarterly Gold Demand Trends fundamental reports to gain key insights.
Released about a month after quarter-ends, these GDTs offer the best-available global gold supply-and-demand data. Q1’s and Q2’s revealed strong demand from Chinese investors and central banks. I wrote about this in a mid-April essay on gold’s remarkable breakout. Straddling March and much of April, this is readily apparent in this gold chart. Gold’s young upleg had already achieved mighty 31.2% gains by then!
With American stock investors refusing to play, gold’s upleg should have fizzled out around 25% gains or $2,275. But Chinese investors were flocking to gold because their own markets were collapsing. From mid-February 2021 to early February 2024, the leading US China-stock ETF plummeted 62.9% reflecting a brutal bear market in Chinese stocks. Many government interventions failed to staunch that bleeding.
While Chinese stock markets burned, an ongoing multi-year real-estate bust following a bubble heaped on the financial pain. That along with China’s laws preventing investors from moving capital offshore left gold a fantastic safe-haven alternative. Chinese investors flooded in, fueling frenzied buying resembling something of a popular mania. Central banks were also big gold buyers, partially on momentum-chasing.
Central bankers in charge of allocating reserves are human too, susceptible to the same herd greed and fear all investors face. But central banks also increasingly worried about their hugely-outsized holdings of US dollars. The dollar was being rapidly devalued through mind-boggling US-government overspending, as well as being weaponized geopolitically against Washington’s foes. So central banks remained major buyers...
* * *
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3日前
Gold Has a Tough Week
By: Christopher Lewis | December 27, 2024
• The gold market had a tough week, but it is also worth noting that the week featured Christmas, which of course will work against the idea of liquidity being robust. At this point, we are testing a major area of support that must be held.
Gold Markets Weekly Technical Analysis
The gold market has been somewhat negative during the trading week as we continue to see a lot of questions asked of whether or not the market can withstand the higher interest rates in America. After all, higher interest rates do cause headaches for gold as gold is an asset that doesn’t pay any interest, so it’s easier to own paper than it is to store gold.
Furthermore, the strengthening US dollar had been a non-factor, but I think we are getting to the point where maybe it’s starting to cause a little bit of a headache. Beyond that, it’s also between two major holidays. So that makes a certain amount of sense itself as a reason why we might have a lack of liquidity and a lack of momentum one way or the other.
It wouldn’t surprise me to drift through the uptrend line and just go sideways for a couple of weeks. But if we break this trend line forcefully, then I think we could go as low as 2500 pretty quickly. I still believe in the uptrend longer term, but in the short term, I think the gold market is going to continue to have a lot of issues to deal with. And it doesn’t seem like it’s going anywhere anytime soon as the 10 year yield is now up 100 basis points in America after the Federal Reserve cut 100 basis points. That’s not normal. So, with that, I’d be cautious here and wait for the market to tell you what it wants to do.
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DiscoverGold
4日前
Gold Hits Five-Day High with Resistance at 20-Day MA
By: Bruce Powers | December 26, 2024
• As gold approaches key resistance levels, including the 20-Day and 50-Day Moving Averages, traders watch for a potential breakout. The December swing high remains crucial for confirming a trend reversal.
Gold advanced to a five-day high of 2,639 on Thursday and it is on track to close the day at its highest price during that period. This is a sign of short-term strength that included a test of resistance around the 20-Day MA, currently at 2,642. Although the initial downtrend line (blue dots) was breached briefly, the 20-Day MA is usually going to provide a more useful dynamic resistance line as it is calculated.
There have been several days since the drop below the 20-Day line on December 13 that it shows as resistance. Therefore, the 20-Day line can be anticipated to continue as a line of resistance until there is a decisive reclaim of the line.
Faces Key Near-Term Pivot
Also, a key point to consider is that the significance of the near-term downtrend line may have diminished since the recent swing high on December 12 was established. A new downtrend line connects that high from the peak and with a new parallel line across the bottom of the channel.
The fact that the downtrend line and the 20-Day line identify a similar price area could lead to a spike if the 20-Day line is reclaimed. When two different indicators show a similar price level the breakout through the pivot can sometimes show a higher level of interest and enthusiasm than at other times.
Falling Channel Shows Downward Pressure
The new falling trend channel may lower the potential significance of a breakout above the 20-Day line. Also, the same would be true on a reclaim of the 50-Day MA, a little higher at 2,666. This is because the new top downtrend line represents potential resistance. It adds to the significance of the December swing high (C) as it is a lower swing high and part of the developing downtrend price structure. The current situation is that the potential for a bearish continuation of the falling channel remains until there is a rise above the December swing high.
Reclaim of 2,664 Weekly High Could Improve Sentiment
Another key upside price level to be aware of is last week’s high of 2,664. Notice it is very close to the 50-Day MA. Since last week ended with a lower weekly high and lower weekly (not shown) low a sustained rise above resistance from last week would begin to improve the bullish sentiment in gold as it would negate last week’s bearish signal on the weekly time frame.
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DiscoverGold
5日前
Gold Bearish Patterns Dominate
By: Bruce Powers | December 24, 2024
• Bearish momentum dominates gold's price action, with resistance at key moving averages and potential downside targets extending to the 2,474 zone.
For the past several days gold has been consolidating as it attempted to strengthen into the 20-Day MA to test it as resistance. It has not been too successful so far, having reached a high of 2,633, which was established on Monday. Since last week’s swing low of 2,582 gold established three minor higher daily highs but remained within the price range from last Wednesday, which often leads to consolidation. An inside day looks likely for today, Tuesday. Resistance has been seen around the small rising trendline drawn from the November 26 swing low.
Bear Trend Dominates
Unless there are clear bullish signs soon, gold is expected to turn back down once it is done testing resistance. It established a lower swing high on December 12 (C), which put it in a position to trace out a falling ABCD pattern (purple) inside a declining parallel channel. Two weeks ago, gold completed a weekly bearish shooting star candlestick pattern that triggered to the downside last week. Moreover, the bearish weekly signal was confirmed by last week’s close below the prior bearish week. This week, gold is set to trade inside week and looks likely to end that way as volatility diminishes during the holiday season.
20-Day and 50-Day Moving Averages Hold Clues
Trend resistance is indicated by the convergence of the top downtrend line and 20-Day MA with the 20-Day line currently at 2,643. A little higher is the 50-Day MA trend indicator at 2,667. A sustained rise and daily close would be needed above the 50-Day line before the outlook starts to turn more bullish. Of course, a sustained rise above the 20-Day line would provide an earlier sign of strengthening.
A new top trendline has been added to the chart in red, starting from the October peak (A) and connecting the recent swing high (C). It establishes a possible new angle of descent for the declining channel and a dynamic resistance line, but only if gold rises above the 50-Day MA. Until then, downward pressure remains. Nevertheless, if gold can get above and stay above the 20-Day MA, the prospect of eventually testing lower support levels before the correction is over decreases.
Drop Below 2,582 is Bearish
If gold falls below the recent swing low of 2,582, which essentially successfully tested support around the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of a minor upswing, then a test of support around 2,532 becomes likely. And if that price area fails to sustain support, gold may dip to the 2,477-target zone that includes the 61.8% retracement at 2,473 and the completion of a falling ABCD pattern at 2,474.
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7日前
Gold Continues to Stagnate
By: Christopher Lewis | December 24, 2024
• The gold market is somewhat stagnant at the moment, which makes sense, as the market is dealing with higher than normal interest rates in the US, and of course a lack of liquidity at the moment.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
Gold has been very quiet in early trading on Tuesday, the gold market of course has been fairly quiet in early trading on Tuesday, as you would expect it’s Christmas Eve. But really, at this point in time, you’ve got a situation where the market is fighting interest rates, because despite the fact that the Federal Reserve is cutting rates in America, the bond market doesn’t care.
And with that being the case, I think you’ve got to look at this through the prism of whether or not rates continue to climb because if they do, that will eventually break gold down. On the other hand, if the market sees the rates drop in America, that could help. Remember, the Fed cutting rates doesn’t really change the 10-year. They don’t deal with that part of the curve. The 10-year hit 4.6% during the previous session.
And that is a bit of a problem because higher yields makes owning bonds much more attractive than owning gold sooner or later. So with all of this, I think we’re going to see a big push and pull situation, but it is worth noting that we’ve been in an uptrend for some time. While trends do end eventually, the reality is it’s easier for a trend to continue. If we can take out the 50-day EMA above, then the $2,700 level probably gets challenged.
If we break down below the $2,550 level, then I think we go looking to the $2,500 level, which is right around the 200-day EMA. In general, I like gold. I think the geopolitical situation calls for it as well, but the interest rate markets are going to have to calm down for gold to truly take off to the upside.
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DiscoverGold
1週前
Gold Sluggish on Monday
By: Christopher Lewis | December 23, 2024
• The gold market continues to see a lot of nothingness at the moment, as the market is more likely than not going to be focusing on the holiday more than anything else. All things being equal, it looks as if we are trying to form some kind of bottom at the moment, but also, we have to keep in mind that we are still in an uptrend, albeit a sluggish one at the moment.
Gold Technical Analysis
The gold market had initially tried to rally a little bit during the trading session on Monday, but you can see we have drifted a little bit lower, and we are sitting just below the 50 day EMA. It’s also worth noting that there is an uptrend line just below, so we’ll have to see whether or not we are going to break down below there. If we do, then obviously that would be a big deal, perhaps sending gold down to the $2,500 level.
As things stand right now though, I think the market is probably more likely than not to consolidate a bit, mainly due to the holidays and of course the fact that liquidity is an issue. If we break above the 50 day EMA, then it’s possible that we could see this market go looking to the $2,700 level.
Keep an eye on interest rates in America because if they continue to rise in the bond markets, that does work against gold, but the negative correlation between the US dollar and the gold market seems to have been broken this year, which does happen from time to time. So, it’s not a huge surprise. But in general, I think you’ve got a situation where gold continues to be very noisy. Watch the 50 day EMA. It gives you a little bit of a heads up as does the uptrend line that sits just below.
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DiscoverGold
1週前
Gold Cycles Mixed Near-Term, Lower into Spring
By: Jim Curry | December 23, 2024
In light of the recent market action, I wanted to post another update on the Gold cycles positioning - which are offering up a mixed picture, near-term.
Gold's 72-Day Cycle
The 72-day cycle is currently the most dominant cycle in the Gold market, and is shown on the chart below:
From the comments made in past articles, the downward phase of this 72-day cycle was seen as in force - which took prices back to our 72-day moving average and the lower 72-day cycle band, a normal expectation.
Later, the low for this 72-day cycle was confirmed to have been made in mid-November, and with that the upward phase of this wave was favored to push higher into January - though the move is expected to end up as countertrend - against the 2825.90 (February, 2025 contract) swing top, made back in October.
Stepping back then, another try at a rally into January - if seen - would peak our 72-day cycle, if that peak has not already formed. In other words, I see some potential for the high for this wave to have been registered at the 2761.30 swing top, though a hard re-test of that number could still play out in the coming weeks.
As mentioned, the overall assumption has been that the upward phase of our 72-day component would end up as countertrend, against the 2825.90 swing top. That peak is seen as our last peak for the bigger 310-day component, which is shown again on the chart below:
In terms of time, this larger 310-day cycle is ideally pushing south into the Spring of next year - before bottoming Gold in what looks to be a larger countertrend affair. In terms of price, the downside 'risk' is to the 310-day moving average - currently at the 2399 figure and rising, and is obviously well below current price levels
That same 310-day moving average is also seen as a key level of mid-term support for the yellow metal, with the same also being at or near the rising (extrapolated) lower four-year cycle channel, shown in red.
As mentioned above, the current correction phase of this 310-day cycle is expected to end up as countertrend. If correct, what follows should be the major rally of 2025 playing out in the months to follow, with more precise details posted in our thrice-weekly Gold Wave Trader market report.
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1週前
Gold Price 2025 Forecast: Rising Support Sets Stage for Second-Half Breakout
By: Christopher Aaron | December 22, 2024
Gold has had quite a run for 2024, up over 25% year to date as this article is going to press in late-December. Will the advance continue in 2025? Or will the new year see a reversal for gold prices after 2024’s strong performance?
Gold Rising Trend Until Proven Otherwise
Gold is within a clear rising trend, which began at the 2022 low of $1,615 per ounce. According to the principles of technical analysis: “A rising trend is valid until proven otherwise.” In this article, we will examine the price levels which will show us that gold’s rising trend is still intact for 2025.
To do so, we will refer to the chart below:
First, notice the series of reaction highs (blue arrows) which began to form after gold broke out above its four-year resistance of $2,075 in March. A series of three reaction highs (blue arrows) formed sequentially in April, May, and July – all along a gently-sloped rising trend. This rising trend defined a resistance boundary.
Next note how gold finally broke higher from the rising resistance in August (red circle). Following such, on two separate occasions, this former resistance acted as support (blue arrows), thus illustrating the classic technical analysis principle that resistance, once broken à tends to act as support.
This now-rising support presently comes in at $2,550 per ounce in the spot market. In technical analysis, remember that support is valid until proven otherwise. Thus, we would expect to witness buyers emerge for gold at $2,550 should price weakness emerge in early 2025.
Note that this support trend is rising slowly as time progresses. Trends are inherently dynamic, so investors must continue to monitor trends as they progress to remain abreast of the most updated figures.
By the start of Q2 2025 this trend of buying support will exist near $2,600 and by the start of Q3 2025 the trend support will appear circa $2,650.
For now, $2,550 is the figure where we would expect to see buyers emerge on the first sign of price weakness.
Additional Fibonacci Support
Additional support for the gold market will exist at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire advance following the breakout in March. Fibonacci levels are percentage targets that appear repeatedly in many patterns found within nature, from seashells to hurricanes to galaxy formations. The markets are the sum of human nature, and these percentages tend to exhibit an effect on the markets as well.
In the case of gold, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the entire advance following March’s breakout comes in at $2,518 (silver highlight, chart above). This level is only $32 away from the independently-observed rising support already discussed at $2,550.
In technical analysis, when two completely separately-derived support levels exist within a small price band, that support becomes even stronger and more meaningful, and we can generally extend the support to be inclusive of the two levels.
In the case of gold then, we would expect support to exist between $2,518 - $2,550, taking into consideration both support levels.
Gold in 2025
Again, support is considered valid until proven otherwise. It would take dual-weekly closes below the $2,518 - $2,550 support zone to begin to suggest it has been permanently violated, and that perhaps a top is forming in the sector.
Remember, gold is within a rising trend until proven otherwise.
Meanwhile, strong resistance appears for gold in the vicinity of the October peak, which is the current all-time high: $2,789 per ounce.
If we go back and examine the chart, we can see that gold should thus be expected to consolidate above key support, yet below the $2,789 all-time high, into mid-2025. If gold is going to break out to new all-time highs, it will be in mid/late 2025.
In this case, the $2,518 - $2,550 support zone will continue to witness buyers emerge, and these buyers will appear at higher and higher intervals through the calendar year, thus “chipping away” at the resistance zone as time progresses.
After enough gold has been transferred from strong to weak hands, the market will overcome sellers at $2,789, and gold will begin its next leg up toward the lofty $3,000 level by late-year.
Takeaway on Gold Prices
Support is valid until proven otherwise.
Support for gold currently exists in a zone of $2,518 - $2,550; the zone will be rising as the year progresses.
Only a break below this support zone would alert us of a potential top in the gold market.
Barring such, the market should consolidate through the first half of 2025, and prepare for a breakout to new all-time highs above $2,789 as the year culminates.
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1週前
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | December 22, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 17, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 262k, down 13.5k.
Last week, gold added 0.6 percent but left a large upper wick; a lower high of $2,761 was formed versus a new intraday high of $2,802 on October 30. The downward momentum continued this week, as the metal dropped 1.2 percent to $2,645/ounce. Gold bugs at the same time can take solace in the fact that buying interest showed up at the nearest support.
On the way to the October peak, there were several breakouts – $2,610s, $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s. These levels can now provide support. In the last three sessions this week, bids were waiting around $2,600.
The metal can rally. If the 50-day at $2,684 is recaptured, trendline resistance from the October high lies at $2,750.
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1週前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | November 21, 2024
NY Gold Futures closed today at 26451 and is trading up about 27% for the year from last year's settlement of 20718. At the moment, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 26810, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in December is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The NY Gold Futures has continued to make new historical highs over the course of the rally from 2015 moving into 2024. However, this last portion of the rally has taken place over 9 years from the last important low formed during 2015. Noticeably, we have elected four Bullish Reversals to date.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 26461 and support forming below at 25858. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply that a bounce is unfolding.
On the weekly level, the last important low was established the week of November 11th at 25415, which was down 2 weeks from the high made back during the week of October 28th. We have seen the market drop sharply for the past week penetrating the previous week's low and it closed beneath that low which was 26497. This was a very bearish technical indicator warning that we have a shift in the immediate trend. We are still trading neutral on the Weekly Momentum Indicators and this is a warning that initial support has been breached. This strongly implies we should pay close attention now to the Weekly Bearish Reversals. If we begin to elect Weekly Bearish Reversals, then we are dealing with a more sustainable near-term correction. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture.
Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of December 9th reaching 27613 failed to exceed the previous high of 28018 made back during the week of October 28th. That rally amounted to only six weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 26053. Additional support is to be found at 25415. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 5 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2023. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2023 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
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1週前
Gold Targeting Rise to 20-Day Moving Average at 2,644
By: Bruce Powers | December 20, 2024
• Gold’s breakout above 2,626 sets the stage for test of resistance at 20-Day MA, with downside risks extending to 2,473 if bearish momentum persists.
Gold bounced on Friday to reach a high of 2,632. That put it slightly above yesterday’s high of 2,626. And it is on track to close in a strong position, in the top third of the day’s price range. That would put it in a position to test resistance around the 20-Day MA, at 2,644 currently, along with a downtrend line. Since the two lines have recently converged, they represent a potentially more significant pivot level than either alone.
Test of Prior Trend Support as Resistance
Notice that from Monday to Wednesday this week the lines were around resistance at the highs of the day. Therefore, if the bear trigger from Wednesday is to follow-through to the downside, it is possible that gold could see resistance around the 20-Day MA and then turn back down.
Lower target levels below this week’s low begin with the 78.6% retracement at 2,576, not much below this week. However, if lower prices continue the recent swing low at 2,537 may be tested as support. Looking at the developing descending trend channel, it shows an increased risk that the 2,537-price level could be busted to the downside. That would put a price zone around 2,475 to 2,473 as the next target zone below 2,537.
Bearish Persistence Could Lead to 2,575 Eventually
There are several indications pointing to that price zone. A declining ABCD pattern (purple) reaches an initial downside target at 2,475. That is where there is symmetry in price between the two legs down and therefore it could be pivot level. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is at 2,473. Further, the price zone was shown as both support and resistance earlier in the year, starting from the July swing high.
Rise Above 2,664 Weekly High Changes Sentiment
Despite the potential for a bearish continuation, the outlook might start to change if there is a rally above this week’s high of 2,664. That would put gold back above the 20-Day MA and trendline. It is interesting to notice that on the weekly chart (not shown) gold fell below the 20-Week MA this week but is on track to close today above it. This means that the 20-Week MA is again showing support, which is bullish on the larger time frame. Nonetheless, price action and patterns will provide clues.
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1週前
Fed Tests Gold Upleg
By: Adam Hamilton | December 20, 2024
The Federal Reserve somehow surprised traders with a hawkish rate cut this week. While that had been expected, apparently the Fed’s projected rate-cut trajectory slowed even more than feared. So market reactions were violent, including the US dollar blasting higher unleashing heavy gold-futures selling. This is the latest in a long line of Fed-spawned tests of gold’s resilience, challenging its current monster upleg.
From early October 2023 to late October 2024, gold skyrocketed 53.1% higher achieving a rare 40%+ monster-status upleg! Gold powered to 43 new nominal record closes in that remarkable span, despite massive uplegs’ usual driver being missing-in-action. Enamored with the AI stock bubble, American stock investors weren’t chasing gold’s upside momentum at all. That’s evident in the dominant gold ETFs’ holdings.
During that 12.9-month span, the combined holdings of the mighty GLD and IAU gold ETFs unbelievably slumped 0.4%! Big global demand catapulted gold higher while Americans ignored it, led by Chinese investors, central banks, and Indian jewelry buyers. Despite gold pulling back since the elections, this monster upleg remains alive and well. Amazingly it has yet to suffer a single upleg-slaying 10%+ correction.
Gold’s latest pullback surrounding Election Day clocked in at 8.0% total losses by mid-November, leaving it at $2,562. The gold-futures selling forcing gold lower was fueled by the US Dollar Index surging, with traders figuring the Fed would slow its rate-cut cycle under Trump. Sound familiar? That’s exactly what happened mid-week after this latest FOMC decision. Given that backdrop, markets’ sharp reactions were perplexing.
Back in mid-September leading into elections, the FOMC not only executed its first rate cut in 4.5 years but made it a crisis-level 50-basis-point one. Top Fed officials meet eight times per year to decide what to do with monetary policy, and every-other FOMC meeting is accompanied by their economic projections. The most-important facet is the dot plot, where individual Fed guys see their federal-funds rate in coming years.
Three months ago they forecast 100bp of total cuts in 2024 including that maiden one, followed by yet another 100bp in 2025. That benchmark USDX was pretty low then at 101.0, just 0.4% over a 13.3-month low several weeks earlier. Yet despite the political Fed officials trying to meddle with elections with that economically-unjustified outsized cut to goose stock markets, Trump’s chances of winning started rising.
Over the next five weeks, the USDX surged 3.4% along with Trump’s betting-market odds of victory. That trade assumed the Fed would really slow its rate-cut trajectory if Trump won. Something over 90% of the 400ish PhD economists working at the Fed are registered Democrats, the FOMC has a long history of being looser under Democrat presidents, and Republican lawmakers have challenged the Fed over the years.
Top Fed officials claim their decisions have nothing to do with politics, so they cited inflationary pressures under Trump. Extensive tariffs will raise import prices, and big tax cuts extended will leave Americans with more money to keep bidding up prices on goods and services. Whether much-different monetary policies under Trump instead of Harris are political or righteous, traders universally expected a tighter Fed.
So that huge US dollar bear rally accelerated after Trump won, the USDX blasting up another 3.9% to 107.5 over the next several weeks! That extended its total gains since late September to 7.1%, an enormous move in such a short span for the world’s reserve currency. The FOMC cut another 25bp at its next meeting two days after elections, but that was one of the off meetings not including FFR projections.
Traders actively speculate on and hedge for coming federal-funds-rate moves in futures. Those imply what markets are expecting the Fed to do. Between the FOMC’s maiden outsized cut in mid-September to FOMC Eve this week, those cuts collapsed. The day before the FOMC cut another 25bp for its third cut of this cycle, those futures implied traders were already expecting exactly 50bp of additional cuts in 2025!
Again that was down from 100bp next year in the previous dot plot three months earlier. So rationally if top Fed officials projected two or more 25bp cuts in 2025, markets shouldn’t have reacted much. That was priced-in, and the USDX had already surged sharply on yields staying higher for longer. On Tuesday the USDX closed at 107.0, while gold ran $2,644. Traders universally expected the FOMC to prove hawkish.
And it did, but merely aligned with shifted expectations after Trump’s decisive victory! Exactly on script, the FOMC again cut its FFR another 25bp to 4.38%. That made for 100bp of cuts in 2024, exactly what the previous dot plot predicted in mid-September. The FOMC only made one minor change to its statement, qualifying “additional adjustments to the target range” with considering “the extent and timing of” more cuts.
The Fed chair was expected to come across as more hawkish in his usual post-decision presser, and he did. I watched it live as always, and exactly as expected Jerome Powell’s opening statement declared more restraint on further cuts. Right upfront he warned, “With today’s action, we have lowered our policy rate by a full percentage point from its peak, and our policy stance is now significantly less restrictive.”
“We can therefore be more cautious as we consider further adjustments to our policy rate. We know that reducing policy restraint too fast or too much could hinder progress on inflation. ... If the economy remains strong and inflation does not continue to move sustainably toward two percent, we can dial back policy restraint more slowly.” Importantly those press conferences start a half-hour after FOMC decisions.
Powell’s expected hawkishness wasn’t what fueled those violent market reactions, as they immediately ignited on that FOMC decision. And with that expected quarter-point cut and the FOMC statement barely changed from the prior meeting’s, the quarterly Summary of Economic Projections’ dot plot had to be the culprit. It is released at the same time as FOMC decisions, 30 minutes before Powell takes the podium.
Back in mid-September, top Fed officials had projected the federal-funds rate being 3.38% exiting 2025. This week they raised that 50bp to 3.88%, exactly as futures were pricing in the day before! The 100bp of cuts forecast next year three months ago were lopped in half to 50bp. Again the USDX already soared for much of that intervening span, on expectations for fewer Fed rate cuts under Trump leaving higher yields.
So it was shocking to see the US Dollar Index immediately soar on that dot plot, closing up a huge-for-it 1.0% to 108.1! That was the biggest USDX up day by far since the day after elections when Trump’s big win was already fully apparent. And it left this leading dollar benchmark at a 25.3-month high. How in the heck were currency traders surprised by the FOMC doing exactly what they had expected and priced in?
After decades of analyzing every FOMC decision, I have no idea what traders were thinking this week. Top Fed officials did up their PCE inflation forecasts for 2025 by 0.4% on a headline basis and 0.3% core, both to 2.5%. Maybe the currency guys figured a hotter inflation forecast implied even fewer than two total cuts next year across eight FOMC meetings. Maybe they worried the “Longer run” FFR edged up 0.1% to 3.0%.
The ironic thing is speculators sophisticated enough to trade super-leveraged currency futures should know the dot plot is notoriously inaccurate in predicting where the FFR will actually go! The Fed chair himself often warns about this in his post-FOMC-meeting press conferences. Examples are legion, as top Fed officials constantly change their outlooks based on the latest trends in jobs and inflation data.
The dollar inexplicably rocketing higher Wednesday unleashed intense gold-futures selling. Leverage in gold futures is extreme, and speculators in that hyper-risky arena look to the dollar’s fortunes for their primary trading cues. They are quick to dump gold futures when the dollar surges dramatically, which slams gold sharply lower. Wednesday’s gold plunge was the latest in many after FOMC hawkish surprises.
This week each 100-ounce gold-futures contract controlling $264,410 worth of gold on FOMC Eve only required traders maintain $11,500 cash margins in their accounts. That made for extreme maximum leverage of 23.0x! At those levels, a mere 4.3% gold move against specs’ bets would wipe out 100% of their capital risked. At 23x leverage, every dollar traded in gold futures also has 23x the price impact on gold.
So the USDX’s blistering rally after this latest FOMC decision unleashed big gold-futures selling, which slammed gold 1.9% lower on close to $2,593. Bearish psychology really flared, as seen in gold’s effective sentiment gauges of silver and the GDX gold-stock ETF. They plummeted 3.3% and 4.6% that day, the latter to a new post-election low! I thought gold’s 1.9% drop on that hawkish FOMC surprise was resilient.
The day after the elections, gold plummeted 3.0% as the USDX rocketed up 1.6%! Then the subsequent Monday, gold plunged another 2.3%. A couple weeks later, gold suffered a second huge 3.0% down day. So 1.9% isn’t even really big in recent context! And while that apparent hawkish Fed surprise tested gold’s monster upleg, it is nowhere near being in jeopardy as readily evident in any longer-term chart.
As humans, we traders are inherently-emotional. Our greed and fear runs wild on outsized daily moves, which we psychologically weight much more highly than they ought to be. The best antidote for fighting those dangerous emotions which lead to buying high then selling low is perspective. A 1.9% gold drop sure feels bad in real-time, but it’s barely noticeable when properly framed within its broader context.
This chart looks at gold superimposed over speculators’ gold-futures positioning over the last several years. Gold is rendered in blue on the right axis, while total spec longs and shorts are shown in green and red on the left. Gold has proven remarkably resilient since the elections, consolidating high keeping its monster upleg alive and well! So far gold has passed this latest hawkish-Fed test with flying colors.
Despite gold plunging 1.9% to $2,593 Wednesday, it remained well above that pullback low of $2,562 in mid-November. And again that total selloff clocked in at 8.0%, yet uplegs don’t end until selloffs exceed 10% entering formal correction territory. So even if gold-futures momentum selling in the Fed’s wake manages to force gold to a fresh pullback low, gold’s monster upleg remains intact anywhere north of $2,507.
That’s another 3.3% under mid-week post-FOMC levels, quite a ways lower considering fewer Fed rate cuts next year have already spent several months being priced in. As long as gold is merely pulling back and consolidating high, traders need to stay bullish on it. Gold’s 1.9% plunge this week actually makes its near-term outlook considerably more bullish. The main reason is big gold-futures selling had to fuel it...
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2週前
Gold Rallies After Tough Few Days
By: Christopher Lewis | December 20, 2024
• The gold market rallied a bit in the early part of Friday, as we are trying to stay afloat after what has been a vicious selloff due to the Federal Reserve ineptness. All things being equal, this is a market that will continue to follow the interest rate markets closely, as well as the risk appetite of global traders and money managers.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market rallied rather significantly during the trading session on Friday to break above the top of the potential inverted hammer from the previous session and it now looks like we could very well see this market continue to go higher. What I’m paying particular interest to is the outsized candlestick from the Wednesday session that Jerome Powell kicked off with his ridiculous press conference.
If we can break above the top of that, roughly the $2,652 level, then I think you’ve got a shot at gold recovering towards the $2,720 level. Underneath we have the $2,583 level offering support, extending probably down to the $2,550 level. I do expect to see a lot of noisy and choppy behavior as liquidity will be an issue heading into the holidays. In general, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of questions asked of it.
But in the longer term, I fully anticipate that we are going to try to find some type of range to trade. The interest rate markets have been a bit of a mess, and if that continues to be the case, then gold will end up being a problem here. All things being equal, though, we are very much in an uptrend. So, I think we’re just going to kill some time between now and when volume picks up in 2025 after the holidays.
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2週前
Gold Bearish Correction Deepens
By: Bruce Powers | December 19, 2024
• A sharp selloff sends gold lower, with bearish signals pointing to further declines as Fibonacci retracements and trend channels suggest downside potential remains.
Gold fell to a slightly lower low of 2,582 on Thursday, which followed Wednesday’s sharp decline. During yesterday’s selloff a prior interim swing low at 2,605 was busted and the bearish implications confirmed by a daily close well below that price level at 2,585. At the time of this writing, gold is trading relatively weak, in the lower half of the day’s price range. And it may end the day in a weak position, below the halfway point for the range.
Lower Target Beckon
There are several indications that gold could fall further before the correction is complete. For one, it attempted a bull breakout of a descending parallel trend channel on December 10 but quickly faltered, leading to a drop back below the top channel line.
A failed pattern has the potential to reverse sharply in the opposite direction. That may be what is happening now with gold. Since a bearish reversal occurred from the top of the channel, the bottom of the channel is an eventual possible target. This doesn’t mean that it will be reached, but it does indicate that the sellers could be in charge for a while longer.
Bearish Indications
Notice that as gold declined from the 2,726-swing high (C) it dropped back below the 20-Day MA (purple). Then, on Tuesday and Wednesday the high of the day tested the 20-Day line as resistance. It found resistance as price was rejected to the downside from the area around the 20-Day MA. This shows prior support being confirmed as resistance, and it is bearish behavior. Bearish sentiment was then confirmed today with an advance to test resistance around the bottom of a small rising trendline starting from the 2,605-swing low.
Next Target 78.6% Retracement at 2,576
The next lower potential support level is around the 78.6% retracement at 2,576. However, as noted above, if the trend channel remains valid the most recent swing low at 2,537 (B) could easily be tested once again. If that price zone fails to stop the descent, then the next lower price zone around 2,473 becomes a target. That price level is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement for the upswing that began from the May swing low. It also includes the target for a falling ABCD pattern at 2,475.
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2週前
Gold Slides Below Key Support as Bearish Signals Intensify
By: Bruce Powers | December 18, 2024
• Gold dropped to 2,587 Wednesday as bearish signals emerged, with the Fed's rate cut fueling declines and support levels at 2,537 and 2,473 in focus.
Gold fell sharply on Wednesday following the U.S. Federal Reserves decision to lower interest rates by a quarter point with fewer reductions expected in 2025 than was previously estimated. The decline took gold below the recent interim swing low of 2,605 to a low for the day of 2,587, at the time of this writing. That is a bearish signal that will likely lead to lower prices for gold.
The 2,605-swing low established a higher swing low and set up the potential for a bullish continuation above the 2,721-swing high on November 25. An attempt to break out above the 2,721 level was subsequently attempted on December 12 with a slightly new high of 2,726. Sellers quickly took back control from there however, leading to today’s descent.
Close Below 2,605 Confirms Bearish Signal
A daily close below the 2,605-support level will confirm today’s bearish signal and put gold on track to test lower support levels before the correction is complete. Notice the parallel declining trend channel on the chart. There was an attempted breakout recently above the top channel line, but it failed after a couple days as gold fell back below the line last Friday.
Also, recent attempts to reclaim the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs have failed. Resistance was seen yesterday around the 20-Day line after gold traded above it for six days prior, and the 20-Day line fell below the 50-Day line on November 26, and it has not gotten back above it. These are all bearish signs that now take on greater meaning.
Decline May Test Support Around 2,537 Swing Low
It looks like there is a good chance that the 2,537-swing low will be retested as support and certainly lower prices may be hit as well. In general, once price is rejected on one side of a channel and begins to move in the other direction, an eventual hit of the opposite trendline is possible. The weekly chart held the clue for this drop as today triggered a bearish weekly shooting star candlestick pattern from last week. And it represents a failure of the earlier bull breakout noted above. Failed pattern can lead to sharp moves.
Lower Potential Support Zone Around 2,473
Below 2,537 is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 2,473 that looks to mark the next lower potential support level for gold. A falling ABCD pattern also completes close to that price level at 2,475. It would also be a good idea to watch for signs of support around the next lower trendlines, which is around the Fibonacci retracement level.
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2週前
Gold Price Forecast: Rebound or Further Decline?
By: Bruce Powers | December 17, 2024
• Gold remains under pressure but finds support near $2,638, with a bullish reversal possible if prices break above $2,659 and reclaim key resistance levels.
Gold remained under pressure on Tuesday, falling to a new pullback low of 2,633 before finding support. A 78.6% retracement of the near-term upswing was completed nearby at 2,638. It looks like today will be the third day in a row that gold closes below the 20-Day MA. Further, both Monday and Tuesday highs specifically tested resistance at the downtrend line. Gold broke out above the downtrend line last week but was unable to sustain the advance. By Friday it was back below the line. Nonetheless, gold may end today’s session in the top half of the day’s price range and above yesterday’s low of 2,644.
Fibonacci Retracement Completes
Given the completion of a minor 78.6% retracement today and the subsequent intraday bounce, a rally above today’s high of 2,659 would trigger a potential daily bullish reversal. What makes that pivot more interesting is that a trendline break and 20-Day MA breakout would also occur. When two or more indicators mark a pivot area, the subsequent breakout can sometimes lead to more aggressive buying.
Rangebound between 2,765 and 2,605
Essentially, gold continues to trade within a range between two key price levels. The direction of the breakout could lead to a continuation in whichever direction that is. At the top of the price range is last week’s high of 2,675. A sustained breakout above that price level triggers a bullish continuation of the trend starting from the November low (A) and puts gold in a position to test higher targets, around 2,750 and 2,790. The bottom of the range is at 2,605.
Downside Risks Remain
Downside risk remains nonetheless and a drop through today’s low of 2,633 would provide the first indication that sellers remain in charge. At least in the short-term as the potential for a bullish reversal remains as long as gold stays above the higher swing low 2,605. But if that low is broken to the downside the November swing low at 2,537 becomes a potential target. Price levels from the weekly chart also need to be considered given that last week ended with a bearish shooting stay candlestick pattern. It shows a tall tail and close near the lows of the range as the sellers were in control by the end of the week. A bearish weekly signal is indicated on a drop below last week’s low of 2,627.
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2週前
Gold Continues to Fight Against Higher Rates in US
By: Christopher Lewis | December 17, 2024
• The gold market continues to be bullish from a longer-term standpoint, but has recently been dealing with higher US rates, particularly in the 10 year note. At this point, the market is likely to continue to fight against this, but the geopolitical issues out there remain a positive for the metal.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market pulled back just a bit during the early hours on Tuesday as we continue to see interest rates climb on the 10-year note in America, causing some problems. That being said, I do see plenty of support between here and the $2,600 level. So, I’m not necessarily looking to short gold. I just think it doesn’t have a lot of momentum right now.
The Federal Reserve meets later this week of course, that could be a major catalyst for where we go next. So, keep an eye on that. But ultimately the $2,600 level is what matters to me. We do also have a trend line that we’ve been following since the beginning of the year. So that is worth noting, as it is near the $2,600 level. Also, above we have the $2,700 level, which has offered a bit of resistance. So, I think that is something that you need to pay attention to. If we can break above it, we could slice through the double top that was formed over the last couple of weeks.
Either way, I think you’re somewhat neutral on gold at the moment, at least until we get through the Federal Reserve meeting and really at this point in time, I don’t know that they’re going to move the goalpost very far because they’re going to cut 25 basis points, but the bond market doesn’t seem to care, they’re causing rates to rise again.
So, we have a showdown between bond traders in the central bank and gold, of course, is somewhat stuck in the middle because it does not act well in high interest rate environments typically, but it also is a hedge against geopolitics and other problems with instability. And let’s be honest here, we’ve got plenty of that. So, I think that’s what the push and pull is about. As things stand right now, I’m pretty ambivalent and neutral about gold. Longer term, I think it does go higher but right now there’s not a lot going on.
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2週前
Gold & Silver Bull Has More Time Left Than You Think
By: Jordan Roy-Byrne | December 16, 2024
Gold’s break out of a 13-year cup and handle pattern is likely the start of a new secular bull market.
However, as we wrote last week, a new secular bull market in the entire precious metals sector cannot begin until Gold breaks out against the conventional 60/40 investment portfolio.
Some are concerned that the weak relative performance indicates the bull market is over or that precious metals are dead money forever.
The reality is the secular bull market in precious metals has yet to start.
There are two key indicators to watch.
The first is Gold breaking out against the 60/40 portfolio, while the other is the S&P 500, after years of an uptrend, losing its 40-month moving average.
We plot the S&P 500, Gold against the 60/40 portfolio, and Gold.
The last two secular bull markets in Gold and precious metals ended 11 years after the S&P 500 reached its secular peak or 10 years after the S&P 500 lost its 40-month moving average (late 1969 and 2001).
Gold and precious metals peaked 9 years and 10 years after the Gold to 60/40 Portfolio ratio began its advance to the breakout.
At present, precious metals are trending higher, as they did with the stock market in the mid 1960s. That is the best historical comparison.
Even if in 2025, we get these bullish signals for precious metals (S&P 500 peaks, Gold breaks out against the 60/40 Portfolio), the secular bull market could last midway through the next decade. If the secular bull in the stock market continues for another 13 months, we could see a precious metals peak in 2036-2037.
When Gold begins to outperform the 60/40 Portfolio and stock market in earnest, Gold, Silver, and other leveraged plays will soar as fresh capital moves into the sector.
For now, it is best to position in the quality companies that will lead in the current macro environment.
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2週前
Gold Continues to See Buyers on Dips
By: Christopher Lewis | December 16, 2024
• The gold market continues to see a lot of interest, as the Monday session offered a bit of support. At this point in time, I believe that a lot of value hunters are getting involved in the markets, as gold has become “cheap” for the moment.
Gold Markets Technical Analysis
The gold market has bounced just a bit during the early hours here on Monday as the $2,650 level seems to be offering support right along with the 50 day EMA. In general, this is a market that I think continues to be very noisy, but I do think that it opens up the possibility of a little bit of range bound trading, especially this week as the market has to deal with a couple of different central banks, most notably the Federal Reserve and that could give us an idea as to what monetary policy will be like going forward.
After all, the Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates in the month of December by 25 basis points, but we now have 80% odds or so that the Federal Reserve will remain stable and not move in January. If that’s the case, it’ll have significant ramifications for gold. Beyond that, we have a lot of geopolitical concerns, which don’t seem to be going anywhere, so that might be something worth hanging on to in the back of your mind as well.
And then of course we had been in an uptrend previously. If we can break above the $2,740 level, then I think it allows gold to go right back to the all-time high, which is just shy of the $2,800 level. If we pull back from here, then I’m looking for the $2,600 level, followed by the $2,500 level to offer support and perhaps a buy on the dip opportunity.
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2週前
Gold CoT: Peek Into Future Through Futures, How Hedge Funds Are Positioned
By: Hedgopia | December 14, 2024
• Following futures positions of non-commercials are as of December 10, 2024.
Gold: Currently net long 275.6k, up 15.9k.
Gold rallied hard in the first three sessions, tagging $2,760 by Wednesday, but only to then unravel to finish the week up only 0.6 percent to $2,676/ounce. As a result, the weekly left a rather large upper wick. Seven weeks ago, when the metal reached a new intraday high of $2,802 on October 30, a gravestone doji formed on the weekly. This week’s candle has a similar look to it.
More selling pressure likely lies ahead. On the way to the October peak, there were several breakouts – $2,610s, $2,540s-50s and $2,440s-50s, which can now provide support.
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2週前
Bearish Formation Threatens Gold's Advance
By: Carl Swenlin | December 13, 2024
After the November pullback, GLD began to rally again. This week, on Wednesday, price exceeded the nearest November top, which made official the new rising trend from the November low. Brief celebration ends the following day as GLD tops, setting the top boundary for a bearish rising wedge formation. Rising wedges are bearish because they normally resolve downward.
GLD has rallied +40% since the February low, so it is entitled to take a break.
The weekly chart shows the root of the problem, which is the parabolic advance (+71%) from the 2022 low. Parabolic advances beg for correction, which can sometimes be severe. In the case of GLD, we do not expect more than a sideways digestion process to dampen the angle of ascent.
The monthly chart emphasizes the steepness of the advance to all-time highs, and the need for some digestion or correction. Should gold pull back, two support levels are apparent: 2450 and 2085. We think the second level is unlikely because sentiment is still too bearish.
Conclusion: Gold has had a very profitable rally since the 2022 low, and it would be beneficial for it to take a break with either a pullback or consolidation. It appears that that process has begun.
Read Full Story »»»
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DiscoverGold
2週前
NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | December 14, 2024
The NY Gold Futures closing today at 26758 is immediately trading down about 0.37% for the year from last year's settlement of 26858. Factually, this market is currently trading below last month's close and it had been weak for the past 2 months and if the market continues to remain beneath the previous month's close of 26810, then it will be in a weak position just yet. This price action here in December is reflecting that this is within the scope of a bearish reactionary move on the monthly level thus far.
ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION
Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2022 and 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2024 and 2020 and 2011 and 1996.
MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK
The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2024, the market has pulled back for the current year. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2024.
This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models. Pay attention to the Monthly level for any serious change in long-term trend ahead.
Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bullish currently with underlying support beginning at 26679 and overhead resistance forming above at 26807. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time.
On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of October 28th at 28018, which was up 21 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 3rd. We have been generally trading up for the past 4 weeks from the low of the week of November 11th, which has been a move of 8.648%. When we look deeply into the underlying tone of this immediate market, we see it is currently still in a weak posture. Immediately, this decline from the last high established the week of October 28th has been important, closing sharply lower as well. Before, this recent rally exceeded the previous high of 27087 made back during the week of September 23rd. That high was likewise part of a bullish trend making higher highs over the week of August 19th. This immediate decline has thus far held the previous low formed at 23042 made the week of June 3rd. Only a break of that low would signal a technical reversal of fortune and of course we must watch the Bearish Reversals. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 25685. Additional support is to be found at 26503. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.
INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK
YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR
Our Momentum Models are rising at this time with the previous low made 2023 while the last high formed on 2024. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2024 warning that this market remains strong at this time on a correlation perspective as it has moved higher with the Momentum Model.
Critical support still underlies this market at 23260 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.
DiscoverGold
NYBob
2週前
TRUMP'S BRICS Tariffs Bullish for Gold - LFTV Ep 203
Kinesis Money
50.6K subscribers
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hHeh2mnvXg&t=1065s
MAGA WORLD NEWS: Loy Brunson BOMBSHELL: Wealth To Be Returned To The People
https://rumble.com/v5ypjjn-loy-brunson-bombshell-wealth-to-be-returned-to-the-people.html
It's 'official' at last: Gold price has been suppressed by extreme shorting and may explode
12:41p ET Thursday, December 12, 2024
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
At long last complaints of gold price manipulation and suppression got some respect this week from the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, a snooty group based in London.
The group published a long paper heralding gold's restoration to the center of the world financial system, "Gold and the New World Disorder," and the paper's chapter titled "Market Disruption -- The Short Squeeze" has this to say:
"With record demand for gold, much of it from BRICs-related countries, the risks of a squeeze are increasing. This could have several catalysts.
"'Bullion banks' holding concentrated gold short positions might need to buy back the metal during another price run.
"Analysts have long argued that these short positions suggest market manipulation, citing the disproportionate control held by a few entities.
"Lawsuits against banks for manipulating the precious metals markets have yielded some success in recent years. During these lawsuits, some former 'bullion bank' traders have commented about how these gold market
strategies might make the market vulnerable to a short squeeze -- either by accident or design.
"Academic and other studies provide evidence that 'shorting gold' has historically been used to suppress the gold price, often linked to central bank sales and futures contracts on commodity exchanges.
"There is also room for market disruption from imbalances stemming from allocated and unallocated gold accounts, when market participants own just a claim on gold rather than specific bars. Recent analysis suggests that the unallocated-to-allocated gold ratio at the London Bullion Market Association could range from 20:1 to even 100:1. For every ounce of physical gold backing these accounts, there might be 20 to 100 ounces of unallocated paper gold claims.
"This indicates a fractional-reserve system where future claims may far exceed the physical gold available. Predicting the timing of such a squeeze is speculative, given the size of some of these positions and growing world financial and economic tensions. However, with suspicions rising that some BRICs countries could be considering 'weaponizing' gold against the West, financial markets could be in for a bumpy ride."
Ya think? Completely unofficial GATA has been documenting and screaming about this for 25 years:
https://www.gata.org/node/20925
https://www.gata.org/taxonomy/term/21
If even these "official" guys now can acknowledge not only that the gold market has been manipulated by central banks and their bullion bank agents but also that the world has foolishly been depending on a lot of imaginary metal, the racket may be quickly coming to an end -- no thanks to OMFIF itself, which for years has been smugly ignoring all the incriminating information placed in the public domain by GATA.
"Gold and the New World Disorder" is posted in PDF format at OMFIF's internet site here:
https://pdf.omfif.org/gold-and-the-new-world-disorder
CHRIS POWELL, Secretary/Treasurer
Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee Inc.
CPowell@GATA.org
* * *
PRAYERS THANKS: Supreme Court Brunson Bombshell: Trump’s Return Reveals the Deep State’s Devastating Betrayal,
America Teeters on the Brink of Collapse!
Medeea GreereBy Medeea GreereDecember 9, 2024Updated:December 9, 202411 Comments10 Mins Read
https://amg-news.com/supreme-court-brunson-bombshell-trumps-return-reveals-the-deep-states-devastating-betrayal-america-teeters-on-the-brink-of-collapse/#:~:text=SHARE-,Supreme%20Court%20Brunson%20Bombshell%3A%20Trump%E2%80%99s%20Return%20Reveals%20the%20Deep%20State%E2%80%99s%20Devastating%20Betrayal%2C%20America%20Teeters%20on%20the%20Brink%20of%20Collapse!,-Ready%20to%20uncover
The Brunson case has unleashed a bombshell: Trump was always the rightful President, and the truth is finally out.
The Supreme Court’s shocking ruling has thrown America into chaos—thousands dead, cities destroyed, and
the country teetering on the brink of collapse. The globalist elites and corrupt politicians have brought America
to its knees, but Trump’s return might be the only chance for salvation.
The deep state can no longer hide the truth. This is the breaking story of a nation on fire.
https://amg-news.com/supreme-court-brunson-bombshell-trumps-return-reveals-the-deep-states-devastating-betrayal-america-teeters-on-the-brink-of-collapse/
GOD BLESS
AMEN
WTPN SITREP 121124 “NUKE EARTHQUAKE, BRUNSON, WNC WILDFIRES, VT INTEL, TRUDEAU”
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President-elect Trump rings the opening bell at the NYSE
Fox News
https://www.bitchute.com/video/GuujOtwlX_g
TRUMP DAILY BRIEFING: Trump Is Time Magazine Person Of The Year | Biden Goes Wild With Pardons!
Barry Cunningham
https://rumble.com/v5ykxcq-trump-daily-briefing-trump-is-time-magazine-person-of-the-year-biden-goes-w.html?e9s=src_v1_news
MAGA WORLD PRAYER NEWS Trump named TIME 2024 Person of the Year
Fox News
4,144 Subscribers
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/dec/12/trump-time-magazine-person-of-the-year
" Mr. Trump will Ring-The-Bill this morning @ Stock Mkt. Exchange " .. !!
Pan American Silver Completed Acquisition of Yamana Gold
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20230330005871/en/
Ross Beaty on the Disconnect in Gold Equities and What it Means for Investors
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=duxti61Ch0o
STAR NEWS - Gold Price Forecast: Bullish Signals Drive Gold Higher, Eyeing Trend Continuation
By: Bruce Powers
Published: Dec 11, 2024, 21:34 GMT+00:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqOl7paXWDU&t=3s
Gold Price Forecast – Gold Continues to See Strength
By: Christopher Lewis
Published: Dec 11, 2024, 15:43 GMT+00:00
The gold market continues to see a lot of strength overall,
as the early selling pressure on Wednesday has been abated.
At this point, the market remains very much a market that
offers the occasional buying opportunity on dips going forward.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rVBrtQtnTT8&t=30s
Trump Vows To Bring Back The Gold Standard
Fact checked by The People's Voice Community
https://investorshub.advfn.com/Aris-Mining-Corp-ARMN-30138 ❤️
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175458367
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=175348241
Bioweapon Whistleblower Exposes The Secrets Of COVID-19 - Bird Flu - And More
https://www.bitchute.com/video/D6AKZyETjlVj
💥💉 Dr. Ana Maria Mihalcea: The Covid Bioweapon/Vaccine is an Extinction Level Event -
the UNvaccinated Are Also Affected
Real Truth Real News
55.7K followers
https://rumble.com/v3o2prk-dr.-ana-maria-mihalcea.html
♥️ Dr. Ana says the good news is there are ways to detox and thwart the effects of the Covid19 bioweapon jabs.
Here are her detox product recommendations: https://tinyurl.com/ux8tmwsj
♥️ More Vaccine Detox Products and Protocols: https://www.DiamondzDetox.com
GOD BLESS
AMEN
DiscoverGold
2週前
Gold Retreats After Testing Resistance, Support Levels in Focus
By: Bruce Powers | December 13, 2024
• After testing 2,721 resistance, gold’s correction challenges 20-Day MA support, with a weak weekly closing price raising concerns about potential for bearish reversal.
Gold continued a two-day bearish correction on Friday that followed a test of resistance at the prior swing high of 2,721 (B) yesterday. The decline has been sharp, and it continues as gold remains near the lows of the day at the time of this writing. Lows have been testing support around the 20-Day MA, now at 2,653.
Weakness could carry over to next week since Friday may end at the 20-Day MA, and near the lows of the day. This puts the 20-Day line at risk of breaking. If it does lead to lower prices then watch how it behaves around the short uptrend line, an area where support may be found.
20-Day Support at Risk
The next lower short uptrend line is one measure of dynamic support for the near-term rising trend. A higher swing low at 2,605 (C) constructs the trend. Since that swing low is part of the price structure for the uptrend it will be a key potential support level to watch as a drop below it will signal a potential bearish reversal. And that could be followed by more aggressive selling.
In summary, key support is at 2,605 and the important resistance level is at 2,721. In the meantime, trendlines, moving averages and other price levels identified within the range may provide some guidance but not likely a sustained breakout signal. Consolidation may continue if gold stays contained within those two price points.
Bearish Weekly Pattern
This week will end bearish for gold as the weekly chart shows a shooting star candlestick pattern. The low for the week and potential support was at 2,627. It follows a bullish breakout above last week’s high earlier in the week. A weak weekly closing price will not provide confidence to the bulls and may help prolong the current range bound uncertainty.
Further, it could lead to an acceleration to the downside, which would be indicated on a drop below 2,627. Weekly support would then be at the two-week low of 2,614. That is not very far from the three-month low of 2,605 and the 20-Week MA at 2,608. Each is an area to watch for support if gold gets down there.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
DiscoverGold
3週前
Gold’s Short Term Price Oscillator
By: Tom McClellan | December 12, 2024
The recent 4-day up move in gold futures prices has produced an interesting overbought condition that is worth talking about. This week's chart is one I featured recently in my Daily Edition, talking about how when gold gets to a short term overbought condition like this it is a pretty good marker of a short term top. Gold has since started dropping out of that overbought condition.
Our Short Term Price Oscillator (STPO) is a variation on the regular McClellan Price Oscillator, which is the difference between the 10% Trend and 5% Trend of closing prices. Some analysts may prefer to call those a 19-day and 39-day exponential moving average (EMA), but we prefer the originalist terminology employed by the late P.N. Haurlan, who was the analyst who first introduced the use of EMAs for tracking prices back in the 1960s. Haurlan was an actual rocket scientist who worked for JPL and who employed EMAs in the analog circuits they used then for adjusting how quickly rockets were steered to alter their course to track onto the intended target. He figured it would be good math to use for tracking stock prices on a computer, since he had access to one at JPL.
Haurlan referred to the different EMAs he used by their smoothing constants, e.g. 5%, 10%, etc. That refers to how fast the EMA adjusts to catch up to where the data have gone. The higher the smoothing constant, the faster the EMA. Haurlan initially employed EMAs on their own. In 1969, my parents Sherman and Marian McClellan introduced a key insight which was to look at the difference between EMAs. The McClellan A-D Oscillator does this with EMAs for the daily difference between Advances and Declines. The McClellan Price Oscillator does this with closing prices.
In the 1980s, another analyst named Gerald Appel picked up on this principle of looking at the difference between two moving averages. He introduced what he called MACD, or Moving Average Convergence and Divergence. Appel preferred different speed EMAs, equating to 12 and 26 trading days.
The STPO differs from our regular McClellan Price Oscillator in that it measures the difference between two much faster EMAs, the 50% Trend and 20% Trend. These would equate to a 3-day and a 9-day EMA, according to the analysts who think in those terms. Here is what those EMAs look like on a chart:
Because these are very fast EMAs, they hug the closing price data very closely. In fact it is often hard to see much difference between the two EMAs in a chart like this. That is why separating that difference out into its own indicator makes it possible to see better what is happening.
Up through Dec. 11, gold's STPO is showing a nice overbought condition. Such a condition is not a "signal", and an overbought or oversold condition can sometimes persist for longer than one might wish. It is part of the personality of gold prices that they tend to make blowoff tops and rounded bottoms, which is the opposite of the stock market. So an overbought condition like this in gold's STPO is usually a pretty good marker of at least a short term top.
As I am posting this article on Dec. 12, gold prices are having a big downward response to this overbought condition. It does not always have to happen that way, but it does go that way often enough to make watching the STPO an important tool for a chartist's toolbox.
Tom McClellan
Editor, The McClellan Market Report
Read Full Story »»»
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