他の国々とは異なり、日本は戦略を解す国である。戦略とは、少々変わった言葉である。というのは、意味を広く誤解されるからだ。「戦略と は?」と尋ねると、大部分の人は、それは計画です、と答える。では戦略的計画とは何か理解しようとするなら、かなり難しい。一体これは計画なのか?戦略と は、大きな計画、または戦術を背負う構造のことである。シンプルにするなら、戦略は単に「長期的」と見なされる。
日本は長期的題目に関しては上手である。これは大きな強みであるが、中立の物事全てに関して言えるように、大きな弱点にもなり得る。ある人に関し一貫性があるということは、他の人に関しては融通性がないことにもなる。
業績によっては、特に大きなプロジェクトに関しては、長期的な考慮が必要とされる。しかしながら、裏を返せば、欠陥のある長期的計画は、長きに及ぶ問題となり得る。これが今日の日本の置かれている立場である。
日本のバブル後の戦略の結果は、今日の、見かけ上の固まった考えに反映されている。アベノミクスの、新たな戦略を試み、新たな方向へ導くという約束である。
過去の経過に関しては、日経の動向に明らかに見られる。このような傾向が示すところこそ打破されねばならない。
デフレのサイクルが旧世代を支援し、若い世代に負担を強い、消極性を促し、積極性を抑え、変化を阻止しているのである。
外から見た日本は良好に見える。失業、犯罪、貧困率は低く、日常的にまとまりがあり、人は礼儀正しく、清潔だ。少なくともアメリカやヨーロッパからはそう見える。
よっ て日本がデフレにあるなら、そんなに悪くないと思ったとしても許されるようだが、その覆いの下には二つの大きな失点がある。一つは、日本の公的赤字は膨大 で、200%を超え、9%の率で増加している点である。これには政府内の負債が含まれ、差し引いてみればまだ何とかなっているようでも、健全な先進国の値 としては2倍にもなっている。
同時に人口は崩壊の一途をたどっている。現状が続くなら、この世紀内で日本の人口は今の半分になる。負債を別にしても、日本について問われるべき主要な要素は、その人口動勢である。戦後の成長は、人口の爆発的増加を伴っていたー 今医療を必要としている人々である。
イ ンフレ誘発で成長する日本は、デフレ誘発をする、経済不況という犠牲を伴って急速に老化する人口を保護する日本よりも、人口崩壊を止める力があるのだろう か?従来のデフレの戦略が、新たなリフレーションの進路への最初の試みに替わったかどうかは定かではない。デフレのやり方はすっかり身についてしまって、 一晩でくるりと方向転換することはできない。
円と日経が示 すところは、古いデフレ戦略と新しいインフレ計画との間での議論で、どちらが優勢かということである。強い円と弱い日経の意味するところは、保守派が優勢 であるということで、弱い円と強い日経の意味するところは、アベノミクスの進歩派と、リフレーションの革命派が勝っているということである。
日本の人口のバランスが減少の方に向き始めている時点で、これは目下日本の運命にとって重大な転向点であり、金融市場の動きの一つ一つから感じ取ることができる。
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