Fannie Mae (QB) (FNMAG) 銘柄情報

Any proof, or just a guess or fake information

Why are you so mean. I cannot help if your GSE stock is deep red my amigo

the cockroaches out running around

For Fearless investors “to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.” Bill Ackman still own 115 mil F&F share. How much do you own F&F share? Relax and enjoy the ride by MAGA and thank you ahead for DJT 47th POTUS will free F&F out of Cship and out of socialist for goodddddd. Crooks socialist in charge FHFA soon be fire all by DJT. Believe it.

Actually $FNMA~ went up to $4.50 + after he said that and didn't see $1 until Covid crashed the world markets over two years later.

But why focus on petty reality when everyone knows the GSE's today are worth more than twice what they traded for before Bush hijacked them to cover his shenanigans.

And the Government is at the end of it's rope now.
$FMCC~ $FNMA~

Of course there will be new P's. Interest rates are half what they were pre financial crisis even with recent increases. Nobody benefits by effing up the share structure to fire the expensive labor when cheap labor is lined up to do the same work for a lot less $.

The same circular garbage he always spews like he did when the GSE'S turned profitable and we ran past $6 despite his clown show.

Once we break $7, the short squeeze will carry us all to $13 on no news this time.

Such insight - so forward thinking
and appealingly provocative

FNMA closed at $2.57 - - FMCC closed at $2.52
I asked myself when was the last time Fannie closed at $2.57 and Freddie at $2.52?

Answer:
Fannie $2.57 down 56c (- 18%) on 29M Today
Nov. 11 – close $2.36 on 31M
High $2.38 Low $2.23
Nov. 12 – close $2.81 on 51M
High $2.95 Low $2.30

Freddie $2.52 down 58c (-19%) on 11M Today
Nov. 11 – close $2.21 on 22M
High $2.23 Low $!.88
Nov. 12 – close $2.81 on 32M
High $2.93 Low $2.20

Yellen and Thompson both gone in 48 days

Get them both out.

FHFA and CFPB both on the chopping block

Elon has stated on X he would like to see the redundancy at the CFPB be wound down because its a waste of money. Obviously the opposition party will want to save every program that there is.
IMO FHFA would fall under the4 same category as the CFPB. The UST should be governing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac not a rouge GOVT agency.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2024/nov/28/elon-musk-cfpb-trump.

what did cramer say?

I don't think Creamer is powerful enough to draw 20%.

I don't think Creamer is powerful enough to draw 20%.

I get it and that's what my comment addressed. MSM is owned by oligarchs that donate to the swamp creatures that download the narrative to their talking heads posing as reporters. Their fake reporters lack actual talent and imagination. They're not paid to investigate. They're paid to project, repeat, and redirect their owner's fear of change onto others the same way they accuse others of lying, breaking the law, or using lawfare precisely the same way they've done. So I'm serious saying they're going to lose their slush fund which scares them so they want to scare everyone else but they have to make up vague bullshit to do so because telling the truth wouldn't serve their purpose. When all you're told or reported is vague, and loaded with emotionally charged assertions, just realize they're really telling on themselves. Nothings going to change other than who gets the profits.

I’ve heard a NEW P SHARE is coming and old Pshares will be dealt and cancelled.

Good luck.

I downgrade Bose George from idiot to imbecile.

He has been right far, far more often than you have, low a bar as that is.

For example, he put a $1 price target on the common in the wake of Mnuchin's comments that he wanted FnF out of government control on November 30 2016. The commons traded around $4.50 at the time but did eventually hit that $1 target on the way much lower.

not sure hedgies can dump pps that far more than 20% without bad news? 

I'm impressed. You managed to fill out my Bagholder Bingo catchphrase card in just a few sentences.

Prices go up? It's going to the moon!
Prices go down? Time to load up!

The doublethink is astounding.

So tempting but I’m trying to figure out the risk/reward profile.

If the senior prefs are exchanged for commons, like with AIG (and as implied will happen with FnF by John Paulson on live TV), there's little to no reward possible for the commons from today's prices. I don't think you fully appreciate how catastrophic it would be to have most of your FnF position in commons only to have a senior-to-common conversion happen. You could easily lose money from here even if you get 2-3x on your juniors.

What you are referring to is a discretionary distribution of dividends "A regulated entity shall make no capital distribution if, after making the distribution, the regulated entity would be undercapitalized".

The NWS dividends were specifically allowed by the Supreme Court even though FnF were critically undercapitalized; they cited 12 USC 4617(b)(2)(J)(ii).

the treasury commitment is what is keeping them capitalized.

No. FnF are not even close to being capitalized. This is why they remain in conservatorship. All forms of FnF's regulatory capital (core, Tier 1, CET1) are hugely negative. The funding commitment is not capital.

There is an unlimited amount of funding currently available to them

No. The original SPSPAs, along with the first and second amendments to the SPSPAs, established a limited backstop. If that is exhausted and FnF still have negative net worth for 60 days then FHFA would be forced by law to place them in receivership.

Treasury was not willing to play so Calabria had no choice but to do what he could which was end the cash sweep.

The various letter agreements that have allowed FnF to retain earnings have all been agreed to by both FHFA and Treasury.

Of course this is a bullshit legal theory which makes no sense at all

That statement applies to all of Rodney's legal theories. It's somehow worse than ano (who continues to have terrible takes, but at least he doesn't post them here anymore).

HE PLAINTIFFS BROUGHT THE WRONG LAWSUIT.

Then bring your own or shut up. That or be exposed as a hypocrite.

Trump and his allies have had four years to position themselves strategically.

Like John Paulson, owner of an enormous amount of junior prefs (about $4B in face value) and no commons. The same person who said that Treasury will end up with 90-95% ownership of FnF commons.

A price of $3 wouldn’t represent a compromise—it would be a capitulation, and that’s not the style of this administration.

Capitulation by whom? Current common shareholders have no power, no voice, and no seat at the table in the coming restructuring. Even Ackman, supposed hero of FnF common shareholders, bought junior prefs to hedge against the possibility that the commons fare way worse than the juniors.

We will win the game for both. JPS and Commons.

Will? How could you possibly know that?

If the commons win then the juniors win, but if the juniors win the common could still lose.

They are to be released fully capitalized and no reason for them to pay any less.

According to the ERCF, FnF can't pay dividends until the buffers (on top of the full capital requirements) reach a certain level.

The terms of the January 2021 letter agreement also say that once FnF fill their buffers, all further income gets swept to Treasury.

FnF will most likely pay out dividends on whatever preferred shares exist once they are able to, and a market-competitive common dividend but no more.

Also by pushing them to the OTC, it kept large (Institutional) investors from moving money into the stocks and having a say about the CONservatorship.

Huh? HERA's succession clause, that transfers shareholder powers to FHFA as conservator, has nothing to do with share prices or what exchange they are listed on.

Remember the Eaton meeting- scare off the Institutional investors so there wouldn’t be heavy resistance to what was being done to the GSEs.

If you see a further precipitous decline in the common share price as with last Friday and today, it might portend exactly this.

I guess he didn’t have the balls to stand up for Congressional Law.

No, it's that he actually understands the law and you don't.

EXCEPTION.—Notwithstanding paragraph (1), the Director may permit a regulated entity, to the extent appropriate or applicable, to repurchase, redeem, retire, or otherwise acquire shares or ownership interests if the repurchase, redemption, retirement, or other acquisition— ‘‘(A) is made in connection with the issuance of additional shares or obligations of the regulated entity in at least an equivalent amount; and ‘‘(B) will reduce the financial obligations of the regulated entity or otherwise improve the financial condition of the entity.’’.

NOTE: REPURCHASE, REDEEM, RETIRE...

WILL REDUCE THE FINANCIAL OBLIGATIONS OF THE REGULATED ENTITY.


You have copypasta'd this so many times and yet you completely miss the word "and" just before (B).

Even if:

1) the FHFA director had the authority to allow FnF to pay down the seniors without Treasury's consent (which they don't per the terms of the SPSPAs)
2) FnF had the cash with which to do so (they don't; current net worth is $147B and the LP balance is well north of $300B)
3) such redemption would "reduce the financial obligations of the entity (it wouldn't; the seniors are not obligations, they are equity)

FnF still wouldn't be able to redeem the seniors without immediately turning around and issuing at least an equivalent amount of new shares. Those new shares would bury existing shareholders in the capital stack just as much as the existing seniors do!

Your continued walls of text that some mistake for research and due diligence are actually logically flawed and do not at all prove the point that you think they do.

But I believe that Paulson also said that the GSEs want to avoid lawsuits.

Do you have a link to that? I hadn't heard anywhere that he said that.

Even if he did, it wouldn't mean much. Treasury's perfect record in all the NWS lawsuits means it has nothing to fear from any further lawsuits over a senior-to-common conversion offer.

Note that commons reached a high of $4.50 in Feb 2017 - shortly after he took office. I would expect that may happen again.

There are two big differences now: FnF have a lot of retained earnings, but shareholders have lost every lawsuit with Treasury as a defendant, meaning that a senior-to-common conversion is much more likely than it was before. Paulson's comment that Treasury will own 90-95% of the common reflects that.

Why would I contemplate on further theft of my private property?

That's what you do in at least 79.9% of your posts here and on Twitter. You must contemplate it for hours every day.

And if your private property had already been stolen (by the original conservatorships/SPSPAs, warrants, etc) how could it be stolen again later?

The government owes Fannie and Freddie.

But they don't owe the shareholders anything.

what odds do you give - go ahead guess - that the SP/LP will disappear via a wipe out of the obligation VERSUS a wipe out of common

My estimate right now is an 85% chance that the seniors are exchanged for commons a la AIG (though probably worse for FnF commons than AIG because Treasury's reason for stopping at 92% for AIG doesn't apply to FnF) and a 15% chance that Treasury writes the seniors off.

Even in that 15% case, the juniors will still outperform the commons if there's a junior-for-common exchange offer like with Citi.

It bounced. Cover your shorts 1st thing in the morning before I have to buy another one of your repossessed boats at auction. 🚢

Yah should have been a comedian 🤣

Trump remembers Catman shooting his mouth off about how he'd still be in his position after Trump is gone so we won't be dealing with that Swamp Rat at any agency for 4 years.

Ackman dumping

RC Whalen at it again.

https://x.com/GuidoPerei/status/1863789946282393777

Market speaks . Honey moon over for PPS. Back to reality (FNMA). Dont over think just sell . History of pump and dump with this one. No $4 on Friday . Half that . 

Just saw 😧 Is everyone alright?

People trading on the basis of Seinfeld reruns deserve to lose $. Congratulations to the buyers today. Especially to that bought the big blocks in the last hour.

Cramer's a fun clown to watch but I wouldn't want to take him seriously

I just figured out why we fell so much today.

All the big boys have held through $6 ÷ PPS down to $0.30 and back to here. None of them chose to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory today. Only little boys 👦 don't know that.

Good one Guido

Wow, do you have anything else in your life other than to hate on Navy? It's sad that he bothers you so much. There is a button labeled ignore, click it and give yourself (and the rest of us) a more peaceful life. " Doctor it hurts when I do that....."

This is substantially compounding my trading anxiety. Hate to have to hold back 15% for taxes… I don’t know… if commons drop close to $2 tomorrow I’ll probably start doing it. I think I’m too preferred heavy as I’ve got like 800,000 face value and only around 40,000 common shares. Maybe just scale back preferred to half current amount and move it into commons. That would be another 60,000 commons or so if they are at $2.50 tomorrow. It is a lot to think about.

New admin can nominate-and-confirm anyone they want

They have the votes in the Senate to get anyone confirmed that they may want.to any post.

Cheer up. With your zero overhead, you can afford to ride this out until you can afford to live in the peir cottages above and look down at the lifeguards instead of hiding from them.

$are $you $certain. $been $so $many $years. $hope $you $are $right. $been $wrong $too $many $times $previously

I downgrade Bose George from idiot to imbecile.

Curious why the twins dropped 20% today. Must be bad news ahead

Indeed

I own all commons and no preferreds. And by the way I absolutely hate Bradford.

I’m trying to do the math and make a decision about whether or not to sell my preferred positions at 35-40% face or better and just dump into commons. At 40% I can only hit 2.5x gain before hitting the ceiling. Commons at $2.50 could easily 4-8x with a proper release plan in place. So tempting but I’m trying to figure out the risk/reward profile.

Well, we don't really know if they sold. Someone dumped way more than buyers could support is fact