conix
4年前
Sure glad I averaged down big time earlier.
Shell upped at Bernstein on 'attractive' cash flow momentum
Dec. 03, 2020 2:42 PM ETRoyal Dutch Shell plc (RDS.A)By: Carl Surran
Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A +0.9%) rises modestly as Bernstein Research upgrades shares to Outperform from Market Perform with a $54 price target, citing "attractive cash flow momentum."
"With our fear of a dividend cut behind us and the surprise Q3 dividend boost still resonating, we've re-examined the Shell cash flow story and think it's now too good to ignore," according to Bernstein analysts led by Oswald Clint.
Free cash flow should average $21B in the first half of this decade and $26B in the back half, the Bernstein analysts believe.
"While income investors may not return, their holdings are around 4% now (from 9% in Q1) and with the stock trading at a rare sub-1.0x [price to book] and valued at just the current dividend stream, we think ESG and cash flow growth seeking investors will pick up the baton," the firm says.
Watts Watt
4年前
Let me tell you about the one thing which will cause oil to rebound overnite:
Any skirmish with the US Navy in the South China Sea; the gauntlet has been tossed already. Tensions are at an all time high, for we are talking about both the short term and long term face of the CCP.
Expect Xi Jinping to be gone within 6 months after the President is re-elected. If not, then China is definitely on a war footing. They have to prove to themselves and their people that they are not the losers they are.
So I expect a lot of tumult in the oil markets in the next year, most of it causing movements to the upside.
If demand decreases like Shell exec states and recovery is slow, then you play with the supply side. Have seen it work before. A few more assaults on Iran's nuclear industry may create accidents, like blowing up oil wells and the straits of Hormuz, by one party or another.
Just my thoughts, though, perhaps too optimistic.
conix
4年前
Oil and gas demand likely weakened 'for years,' Shell CEO says
Jul. 16, 2020 5:59 PM ET|About: Royal Dutch Shell plc (RDS.A)|By: Carl Surran, SA News Editor
The global economy will not achieve a V-shaped recovery after the coronavirus epidemic, which will hurt oil and gas demand for years, Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A, RDS.B) CEO Ben van Beurden says.
"Energy demand, and certainty mobility demand, will be lower even when this crisis is more or less behind us. Will it mean that it will never recover? It is probably too early to say, but it will have a permanent knock for years," the CEO told IHS Markit today in an interview.
The weaker demand outlook and subsequent drop in gas prices mean Shell and others have needed to sharply cut spending sharply and postpone large amounts of investment "for some time to come."
Shell will publish the exact size of its Q2 writedown - flagged last month at as much as $22B - at the end of July, but it will not affect "operational coverage and the coverage of dividends," van Beurden said.
conix
5年前
Royal Dutch Shell cuts costs by US$9bn to protect finances from coronavirus but dividend safe
“The combination of steeply falling oil demand and rapidly increasing supply may be unique, but Shell has weathered market volatility many times in the past"
Royal Dutch Shell Plc - Royal Dutch Shell to cut costs by up to US$9bn to protect finances from coronavirus
Royal Dutch Shell Plc (LON:RDSB) saw its shares rise on Monday as the oil giant said that it is taking action to “reinforce financial strength and resilience” and to position the company for economic recovery following the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic, but there are no plans to cut its dividend.
Shell said it is scrapping its share buyback programme and removing some US$5bn from its capital spending budget, which will now stand at US$2bn for 2020, and it plans to slash underlying operating costs by US$3bn to US$5bn over the course of the year.
READ: Shell deemed “most vulnerable” by City analyst
It is expected these changes will contribute around US$8bn to US$9bn of free cash flow over the current twelve-month period, with the company saying that it also remains committed to its planned US$10bn asset divestment programme.
“As well as protecting our staff and customers in this difficult time, we are also taking immediate steps to ensure the financial strength and resilience of our business,” Ben van Beurden, Shell chief executive said in the statement to investors.
“The combination of steeply falling oil demand and rapidly increasing supply may be unique, but Shell has weathered market volatility many times in the past.”
Shell said it will seek to maintain strong financial credit metrics and ensure its balance sheet remains robust. The company added that it has around US$20bn of cash and equivalents plus US$10bn of undrawn credit lines.
Very proud dividend record
Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, commented: “Major oil producer Royal Dutch Shell has a very proud dividend record where it hasn’t cut its payout since the Second World War. Perhaps this explains why, unlike many other companies, it is not yet cutting its dividend let alone suspending it despite the escalating impact of the coronavirus outbreak and the containment measures launched in its wake.
“With a yield well into double digits the market is clearly pricing in action on the dividend sooner rather than later. Perhaps there might even be a bit of relief if such a decision were to be made."
He added: “For now the company appears to be attempting to stave off this difficult call by curbing its share buyback programme while cutting costs and expenditure.
“There may be question marks over its capacity to make the business leaner than it is already given that significant cost savings were made in the wake of the 2014 to 2016 oil price crash.
“And while the company is apparently committed to its $10bn asset disposal programme, it remains to be seen if it could find any parties who would be genuinely committed to buying assets in the current environment."
Mould concluded: “Shell has been through testing periods before, not least a big reserves scandal in the mid-noughties, but it’s hard to think of a CEO at the company who has been dealt a more testing hand than current incumbent Ben van Beurden.
“If its short-term challenges weren’t enough, there is the ongoing challenge associated with addressing mounting concern over its contribution to climate change.”
In late morning trading, Shell's A shares were 1.8% higher at 1,080.80p.
-- Adds analyst comment, share price --
Quick facts: Royal Dutch Shell Plc
Price: 1078.6 GBX
LSE:RDSB
Market: LSE
Market Cap: £84.39 billion
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