H2R
4日前
Barron's Article
https://www.barrons.com/articles/oklo-stock-ai-nuclear-power-3ac3f7f4
Oklo Stock Rises. Nuclear Power Company Is in ‘Great Position’ With AI Boom.
The OKLO stock gained Thursday after Wedbush analysts initiated coverage with an Outperform rating,
citing the nuclear-power startup’s “momentum into 2025” and its ability to benefit
from the artificial-intelligence boom.
Analysts led by Daniel Ives set a target of $26 for the price. The stock climbed 3.1% to $18.95 apiece on Thursday morning.
The decision to rate Oklo at Outperform, the firm wrote,
came in part from the company’s “attractive build, own, and operate business model,”
which differs from that of its competitors. “The company itself is selling power,
not the reactors, directly to customers under long-term contracts
which in turn provide long-term recurring revenues and a streamlined regulatory pathway,” Wedbush wrote.
On Wednesday, Oklo announced a partnership to sell energy to Switch, a privately held company that operates data-center campuses.
Under the terms of the deal, Oklo will develop and operate power plants across the U.S.,
with a goal to deploy 12 gigawatts of power through 2044.
Wedbush noted that the artificial intelligence boom is driving significant demand for clean energy,
“putting OKLO in a great position to capitalize on this elevated demand.”
“With the AI revolution underway, the industry will need roughly a tenfold increase in computing power by 2030 which takes up a
tremendous amount of energy,” the analysts wrote.
Among the most promising initiatives is Oklo’s Aurora micro-reactor, Wedbush argued.
The proposed design is fueled by high-assay low-enriched uranium, or HALEU,
“which has proven itself as a superior fuel” relative to traditional low-enriched uranium.
Oklo made its debut on the New York Stock Exchange in May.
The start-up went public through a merger with AltC Acquisition Corp.,
a special-purpose acquisition company headed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.
Wedbush acknowledged the neck-and-neck competition in the market for small modular reactors,
describing timelines to get power to the ground as an “arms race.”
Despite these challenges, the firm believes Oklo is a step ahead of the competition.
It doesn’t hurt that the company is “backed by a major player in the AI space,” either,
as Wedbush put it.
Best of luck with your investments!
H2R
6日前
NPV $32B on the Switch premise/ChatGPT
A go at NPV. A number of parameters to consider. This could be quite wrong, but hey, why not give it a whirl using ChatGPT, after a few iterations to fix the parameters.
If Oklo’s power agreement ramps up over time - starting in 2029 and becoming fully operational by 2044- , the **Net Present Value (NPV)** calculation changes because the annual cash flows will grow over the ramp-up period. Here's how we can estimate it:
---
### Key Adjustments
1. **Ramp-up Period (2029–2044)**:
- Assume power delivery starts small and increases linearly over 15 years until it reaches the full 12 GW by 2044.
- Annual revenue grows proportionally, starting at **$0 in 2029** and reaching **$5.256 billion in 2044**.
2. **Fully Operational Period (2044–2049)**:
- After 2044, the system is fully operational, generating **$5.256 billion/year** until the end of the 20-year contract (2049).
3. **Net Cash Flow**:
- Operating costs are assumed to scale proportionally with revenue, so the net cash flow is calculated as \( \text{Revenue} \times (1 - \text{Cost Ratio}) = \text{Revenue} \times 0.7 \).
4. **Discount Rate**:
- Use the same discount rate as before (\( r = 8\% \)).
---
### Ramp-Up Revenue Formula
During the ramp-up period, the annual revenue can be modeled as growing linearly:
\[
\text{Revenue}_t = \frac{5.256}{15} \times (t - 2028) \quad \text{for } t = 2029, \dots, 2043.
\]
The **Net Cash Flow** for each year during ramp-up is:
\[
\text{Net Cash Flow}_t = \text{Revenue}_t \times 0.7.
\]
---
### Fully Operational Period
From 2044 to 2049, the annual cash flow remains constant at:
\[
\text{Net Cash Flow}_t = 5.256 \times 0.7 = 3.679 \, \text{billion/year}.
\]
---
### NPV Calculation
We discount each year’s cash flow using the formula:
\[
NPV = \sum_{t=2029}^{2049} \frac{\text{Net Cash Flow}_t}{(1 + r)^{t-2028}}.
\]
#### Step 1: Ramp-Up Period (2029–2043)
The cash flow in year \( t \) (ramp-up years) is:
\[
\text{Net Cash Flow}_t = \left( \frac{5.256}{15} \times (t - 2028) \right) \times 0.7.
\]
Discounting each year’s cash flow:
\[
NPV_\text{ramp-up} = \sum_{t=2029}^{2043} \frac{\text{Net Cash Flow}_t}{(1 + r)^{t-2028}}.
\]
This requires summing 15 terms, where the numerator grows linearly. We can calculate this explicitly or approximate using formulas for summing discounted cash flows.
---
#### Step 2: Fully Operational Period (2044–2049)
For the fully operational period:
\[
NPV_\text{operational} = \sum_{t=2044}^{2049} \frac{3.679}{(1 + 0.08)^{t-2028}}.
\]
This is a simple summation of discounted constant cash flows.
---
### Total NPV
Combine the ramp-up and fully operational periods:
\[
NPV_\text{total} = NPV_\text{ramp-up} + NPV_\text{operational}.
\]
---
### Simplified Estimate Using Average Ramp-Up Revenue
Instead of calculating each year’s revenue separately, we can approximate:
1. Average revenue during ramp-up: \( \frac{0 + 5.256}{2} = 2.628 \, \text{billion/year} \).
2. Average net cash flow: \( 2.628 \times 0.7 = 1.8396 \, \text{billion/year} \).
3. Approximate ramp-up NPV (2029–2043): Use the PVA formula for 15 years at $1.8396 billion/year.
\[
PVA_{15} = \frac{1 - (1 + 0.08)^{-15}}{0.08} \approx 8.559.
\]
\[
NPV_\text{ramp-up} = 1.8396 \times 8.559 \approx 15.74 \, \text{billion}.
\]
4. Fully operational NPV (2044–2049):
\[
PVA_{6} = \frac{1 - (1 + 0.08)^{-6}}{0.08} \approx 4.623.
\]
\[
NPV_\text{operational} = 3.679 \times 4.623 \approx 17.0 \, \text{billion}.
\]
---
### Final Answer
The **total NPV** for the agreement, assuming ramp-up over 15 years and full operation afterward, is approximately:
\[
NPV_\text{total} = 15.74 + 17.0 = \mathbf{32.74 \, \text{billion USD}}.
\]
H2R
6日前
Oklo and Switch [..] Deploy 12 Gigawatts of Advanced Nuclear Power,
https://oklo.com/newsroom/news-details/2024/Oklo-and-Switch-Form-Landmark-Strategic-Relationship-to-Deploy-12-Gigawatts-of-Advanced-Nuclear-Power-One-of-the-Largest-Corporate-Clean-Power-Agreements-Ever-Signed/default.aspx
One of the Largest Corporate Clean Power Agreements Ever Signed
Oklo and Switch have signed one of the largest corporate power agreements in history, a 12-gigawatt non-binding Master Power Agreement.
This milestone agreement demonstrates a shared commitment to advancing sustainable energy solutions, supporting data center growth, and driving industry-wide decarbonization.
Oklo’s Aurora powerhouses will provide reliable, clean energy for Switch’s cutting-edge AI, cloud, and enterprise data center infrastructure.
SANTA CLARA, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Oklo Inc. (NYSE: OKLO) (“Oklo” or the “Company”), an advanced nuclear technology company, and Switch, a premier provider of AI, cloud and enterprise data centers, have signed a non-binding Master Power Agreement (“Master Agreement”) to deploy 12 gigawatts of Oklo Aurora powerhouse projects through 2044. This is one of the largest corporate clean power agreements ever signed. The Master Agreement establishes a framework for collaboration, with the expectation that individual binding agreements will be finalized as project milestones are reached.
Under the Master Agreement, Oklo will develop, construct, and operate powerhouses to provide power to Switch across the United States through a series of power purchase agreements. This enduring relationship over several decades will help accelerate Oklo’s early powerhouse deployments and also position the Company to scale in response to a growing demand pipeline. This Master Agreement enables Oklo to leverage Switch’s best-in-class execution while developing the financial and infrastructure model for scaling advanced nuclear.
The timescale of this Master Agreement underscores Switch and Oklo’s commitment to meeting artificial intelligence’s growing electricity demands with clean, sustainable power. The Company believes that Switch’s industry-leading data centers, which support the computing needs of some of the world’s largest companies, are ideally positioned to handle AI workloads well into the future.
“The relationship with Oklo underscores our commitment to deploying advanced nuclear power at a transformative scale for our data centers, further enhancing our offerings of one of the world’s most advanced data center infrastructures to current and future Switch clients,” said Rob Roy, Founder and CEO of Switch. “By utilizing Oklo’s powerhouses, we aim to ensure that Switch remains the leader in data center sustainability while supporting our vision of energy abundance.”
Since January 2016, all Switch data centers have been powered by 100% renewable energy, nearly 984 million kilowatt-hours of green power annually. This Master Agreement with Oklo supports Switch’s mission to build efficient, sustainable infrastructure while bolstering the voluntary market for renewable and clean energy sources.
“We are excited to collaborate with Switch on this historic agreement,” said Jacob DeWitte, Co-Founder and CEO of Oklo. “Rob Roy and the Switch team share the vision we have for nuclear energy’s role in powering artificial intelligence and providing the world with energy abundance. Oklo expects to benefit enormously from Switch’s record of turning visions into reality. The lifespan of this Master Agreement will allow us to iterate and evolve with Switch, from development to deployment to scaling. We believe that working with Switch will not only accelerate our early powerhouses but also accelerate our ability to scale by demonstrating customer demand for decades to come.”
This Master Agreement highlights Oklo’s business model of simplifying clean energy access by selling power, not power plants. It offers customers a direct, flexible pathway to clean, reliable, and affordable advanced nuclear energy. Aurora powerhouses are planned to support growing energy demands as they are deployed in the future.
That's just huge.
Best of luck with your investments!
H2R
3週前
Meta seeks nuclear power developers for reactors to start in early 2030s
By Timothy Gardner
December 3, 20244:20 PM MSTUpdated 14 hours ago
WASHINGTON, Dec 3 (Reuters) - Meta (META.O), opens new tab said on Tuesday it is seeking proposals from nuclear power developers to help meet its artificial intelligence and environment goals, becoming the latest big tech company to take interest in atomic power amid an expected boom in electricity demand.
The company wants to add 1 to 4 gigawatts of new U.S. nuclear generation capacity starting in the early 2030s, it said in a release. A typical U.S. nuclear plant has a capacity of about 1 gigawatt.
"At Meta, we believe nuclear energy will play a pivotal role in the transition to a cleaner, more reliable, and diversified electric grid," the company said in a release.
U.S. data center power use is expected to roughly triple between 2023 and 2030 and will require about 47 gigawatts of new generation capacity, according to Goldman Sachs estimates.
But it will be tough to swiftly meet soaring power demand with nuclear reactors, as companies face an overburdened U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, potential uranium fuel supply obstacles and local opposition.
Microsoft (MSFT.O), opens new tab and Constellation Energy (CEG.O), opens new tab announced a deal in September to restart a unit at the Three Mile Island plant in Pennsylvania in what would be the first-ever restart for a data center.
That announcement followed a similar agreement in March in which Amazon.com (AMZN.O), opens new tab, purchased a nuclear-powered data center from Talen Energy (TLN.O), opens new tab.
Meta said it is seeking developers with expertise in community engagement, development and permitting, and would consider either small modular reactors, an emerging part of the business that is not yet commercial, or larger nuclear reactors similar to today's fleet of U.S. nuclear plants.
Meta said it will take submissions from developers that want to take part in the request for proposals until Feb. 7, 2025.
The company said it was using the request-for-proposal process because, compared to renewable energy projects like solar and wind, nuclear is more capital-intensive, takes longer to develop, and is subject to more regulatory requirements.
"An RFP process will allow us to approach these projects thoroughly and thoughtfully with these considerations in mind," it said.
WIll OKLO benefit?
Best of luck with your investments!
H2R
4週前
Former BP boss Looney to chair US data company Prometheus Hyperscale
By Reuters
November 24, 20243:06 PM MSTUpdated 19 hours ago
Nov 24 (Reuters) - Oil major BP's former CEO Bernard Looney is set to chair Prometheus Hyperscale, the U.S.-based data company said on Sunday.
Looney, who resigned in 2023 after four years in the British energy giant's top job for failing to fully disclose details of past personal relationships with colleagues, will provide strategic guidance on the development of the data-driven company's growth plans, Prometheus Hyperscale said in a statement.
In his new role, Looney will also assist with tasks including work on the company's flagship $10 billion data center in Evanston, Wyoming, Prometheus Hyperscale said.
"I'm wishing BP well, and of course for me I'm thinking about the next 32 years of my career, and I can't think of anything more exciting, more challenging to do than get stuck into this space," Looney was quoted as telling the Financial Times in an interview published on Sunday.
In May, Prometheus Hyperscale, a company focused on data center infrastructure, signed, a partnership agreement with Oklo (OKLO.N), a nuclear energy company backed by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman.
Best of luck with your investments!
H2R
4週前
Prometheus Hyperscaler
Scalability and Reliability
Our data centers are designed to be independent of environmental conditions, ensuring consistent performance regardless of location. This scalability is crucial as we deploy our technology across multiple sites in Evanston, Wyoming; Pueblo, Colorado; Fort Morgan, Colorado; Phoenix, Arizona; and Tucson, Arizona. Each location is part of our strategic pipeline, optimized for efficiency and reliability, and powered by Oklo’s cutting-edge energy solutions.
https://www.prometheushyperscale.com/about-us
Best of luck with your investments!
georgie18
1月前
OKLO...$24.82...🥳...Off my $17 range dip alert...
georgie18
Member Level
Re: georgie18 post# 665146
Tuesday, November 19, 2024 1:25:58 PM
Post#
665333
of 665654
OKLO...$22.24...🥳...Off the $17 range dip alert...
georgie18
Member Level
Re: georgie18 post# 76
Friday, November 15, 2024 11:50:35 AM
Post#
77
of 80
OKLO...$18.60...Caught the $17 range dip...🥳Bids still there from $15 to $17 see if it fills...
georgie18
Member Level
Re: None
Friday, November 15, 2024 11:18:53 AM
Post#
665134
of 665145
OKLO...$19.17...🥳... https://schrts.co/HutFuTRb ...Pole N Flag Bullish Reversal setting up here...Looking for entry in the $15/$17 range...on this Nuclear En
H2R
1月前
OKLO / Atomic Alchemy signs MOU with Zeno Power
https://oklo.com/newsroom/news-details/2024/Atomic-Alchemy-Oklos-Proposed-Acquisition-Target-Signs-MOU-with-Zeno-Power-to-Provide-Fuel-for-Commercial-Radioisotope-Power-Systems/default.aspx
Through this collaboration, Atomic Alchemy expects to supply Zeno Power with strontium-90 (Sr-90), americium-241 (Am-241), and other radioisotopes needed to power RPSs like Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators, or “nuclear batteries.” These systems are designed for remote and off-grid environments, such as space and undersea applications. These radioisotopes can be produced as coproducts from Oklo’s recycling processes.
Zeno Power’s novel design enables broad commercial use of RPSs in space and terrestrially. In late 2023, Zeno Power demonstrated its first Sr-90 heat source at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. To date, Zeno Power has secured over $65 million in contracts with National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the U.S. Navy, and the U.S. Space Force, enabling reliable clean power solutions for missions ranging from seabed exploration to lunar operations.
A bit of unexpected good news. Does not hurt the stock.
Best of luck with your investments!
H2R
1月前
Chris Wright / Energy Secretary ...
WASHINGTON, Nov 16 (Reuters) - President-elect Donald Trump said on Saturday that oil and gas industry executive Chris Wright, a staunch defender of fossil fuel use, would be his pick to lead the Department of Energy.
Wright is the founder and CEO of Liberty Energy, an oilfield services firm based in Denver. He is expected to support Trump's plan to maximize production of oil and gas and to seek ways to boost generation of electricity, demand for which is rising for the first time in decades.
Guess which company's board Chris Wright is on :
* https://oklo.com/investors/governance/board-of-directors/default.aspx#Chris-Wright
Best of luck with your investments!
H2R
1月前
Oklo pipeline swells to 2.1 GW
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/oklo-reactor-pipeline-swells-to-2-gigawattsw-as-demonstration-project-advances/733214/
The advanced reactor company has completed key milestones for its first planned deployment and added up to 750 MW in potential future orders, CEO Jacob DeWitte said on Oklo’s Q3 2024 earnings call.
Oklo has received nonbinding letters of intent to provide up to 750 MW from its Aurora powerhouse reactors to two major data center operators, expanding its project pipeline to approximately 2,100 MW, the advanced reactor company said Wednesday.
Separately, Oklo in September finalized an agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy and secured an environmental compliance permit, allowing it to move forward with site characterization for its first reactor deployment, planned for Idaho National Laboratory in late 2027, the company said Thursday in its Q3 2024 investor update.
Oklo plans to submit an initial combined license application for its 15-MW microreactor design to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission next year in support of the INL deployment, followed shortly by subsequent combined license applications for early commercial deployments, CEO Jacob DeWitte said on a Thursday earnings call.
One of the more interesting aspects of OKLO:
Oklo’s fast fission reactors can run on recycled fuel while producing valuable radioisotopes as byproducts, allowing it to integrate radioisotope production into its fuel recycling process, it said.
That capability could allow Oklo to monetize fission products that would otherwise be discarded, reducing its net operating costs and making its power business more profitable, DeWitte said.
I initiated a position. NuScale and OKLO can be both successful in this sector.
Best of luck with your investments!
novicetrader
2月前
It's a very informative video,but note that it is from a month ago. Looks like around 2nd week November, the founding shares lockup will expire, so we need to watch out for a drop around that time.Altman & some of the founders shares are locked up for 3 years, but even those have some kind of exception based on stock price staying above a certain price for a period of 20 consecutive days( the video also talks about this). Since OKLO is already hitting the roof, we need to watch out for this aspect.
novicetrader
3月前
Yes,the key part I believe is "sell the power to Microsoft as the company searches for energy sources to fuel its AI ambitionst".So basically, if Microsoft is lining up for nuclear energy for AI, there will be a rush for nuclear energy from other tech giant AI players too. The AI thing (call it hype or call it a necessity),is just beginning. So the SMR (small modular reactor) companies(like NNE,SMR,OKLO) will gain prominence in the next few years. These take time to build and actually produce nuclear energy though.They are all a few years away to start output,but nuclear energy is definitely the future.
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