Legg Mason Value Trust Issues Shareholder Letter
2008年7月30日 - 10:00PM
PRニュース・ワイアー (英語)
BALTIMORE, July 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- The following is a
letter to shareholders of Legg Mason Value Trust: Second Quarter
2008 Dear Shareholder, A group of us were standing around a few
weeks ago when Warren Buffett wandered over. Chris Davis had dubbed
us the Value Support Group, as we all adhered to that approach to
investing. We were commiserating over how badly we had done in this
market, how valuation appeared not to matter and had not for the
past couple of years, how it was all about momentum and trend, and
how we were all losing clients and assets over and above our losses
in the market. It seemed like we needed a 12-step program to cure
us of our addiction to buying beaten-up stocks trading at large
discounts to our assessment of their intrinsic value. Mason Hawkins
said, "Warren, I'm an optimist. I think this whole thing can turn
quickly, and surprise people. Are you an optimist?" "I'm a realist,
Mason," the sage replied. Warren went on to say he was optimistic
long term, and backed that up in a talk the next morning on the
remarkable history of growth, innovation, and wealth creation the
U.S. had produced over the past 200-plus years. He also offered a
sober assessment of the current challenges we face, and said it
would take some time to work through them. He then made the
perfectly sensible point that as we are all net savers, we should
be happy if stock prices declined a lot more, so we could buy even
better bargains. That is a point Charlie Ellis elaborated on in his
fine book, Investment Policy, a few years back. As a matter of
logic, it is irrefragable. As a matter of psychology, I think most
of us value investors think we have plenty enough bargains already,
and may not be able to handle that many more. Or more accurately,
our clients may not be able to. We are value investors because we
are persuaded of the logic of buying shares of businesses when
others want to sell them, and we understand that lower prices today
mean higher future rates of return, and high prices today mean
lower future rates of return. The best time to buy our funds or to
open an account with us has always been when we've had dismal
performance, and the worst time has always been after a long run of
excess returns. Yet we (and everyone else) get the most inflows and
the most interest AFTER we've done well, and the most redemptions
and client terminations AFTER we've done poorly. It will always be
so, because that is the way people behave. John Rogers, the founder
of Ariel Investments, came in to see us last week. John has been an
outstanding investor for 25 years or so, but like almost all value
types, is going through one of his toughest periods now. His assets
are down, similar to the experience we've had. He said it was the
most difficult market he'd seen, a judgment I would have given to
the 1989-1990 market, up until the frenzy erupted over Fannie Mae
and Freddie Mac, which sent financials to what looks like a
capitulation low on July 15th. I am now in John's camp. A point he
made that I have likewise noted to our staff is that this is the
only market I have seen where you could just read the headlines in
the papers, react to them, and make an excess return. I have used
the mantra to our analysts that if it's in the papers, it's in the
price -- which used to be correct. Indeed, it borders on cliche in
the business that by the time something makes the cover of the
major news or business publications, you can make money by doing
the opposite. There is solid academic research to back this up. But
in the past two years, you didn't need to know anything except to
sell what the headlines were negative about (anything related to
real estate, the consumer, or finance) and buy anything that was
going up and that everybody liked (energy, materials, industrials).
I am reminded of what John Maynard Keynes, himself a great
investor, said once about investing, "It is the one sphere of life
and activity where victory, security, and success is always to the
minority and never to the majority. When you find anyone agreeing
with you, change your mind. When I can persuade the Board of my
Insurance Company to buy a share, that, I am learning from
experience, is when I should sell it." It has been explained to me
that it was obvious we should not have owned homebuilders, or
retailers or banks, and that I should have known better than to
invest in such things. It was also obvious that growth in China and
India and other developing countries would drive oil and other
commodities to record levels and that related equities were the
thing to own. "Don't you even read the papers?" was a common
comment. While I am quite aware of our mistakes, both of commission
and omission, when I ask what is obvious NOW, there is little
consensus. If there is something obvious to do that will earn
excess returns, then we certainly want to do it. Is it obvious
financials should be bought now, having reached the most oversold
levels since the 1987 Crash, and the lowest valuations since the
last great buying opportunity in 1990 and 1991? Or is it obvious
they should be avoided, since the credit problems are in the papers
every day and write-offs and provisioning will likely continue into
2009? Is it obvious energy stocks should be bought on this
correction in oil prices from $147 to $123, a correction that has
wiped 25 points off the prices of companies like XTO Energy and
Chesapeake Energy in just a few weeks? Or is it obvious that oil
had reached bubble levels at $147, and that buying the stocks here,
down 30% from their highs, is akin to buying homebuilders down 30%
from their highs in 2005? If you had bought Tesoro Petroleum or
Valero Petroleum when their prices broke late last fall -- remember
the Golden Age of Refining story that took Tesoro from under $4 to
over $60? -- you would be looking at losses in this year greater
than if you had bought Citibank or Merrill Lynch. I do think some
things are obvious: it is obvious the credit crisis will end, and
it is obvious the housing crisis will end, and that credit markets
will function satisfactorily and house prices will stop going down
and then start moving higher. It is obvious that the American
consumer will spend sufficiently to keep the economy moving forward
long term. It is obvious that the U.S. economy, already the most
productive in the world, will get even more productive and will
adapt and grow. It is obvious stock prices will be higher in the
future than they are now. Sir John Templeton died a few weeks ago,
full of riches and honors, as he so deserved to be. The legendary
value investor got his grubstake by famously buying shares of
companies selling for $1 a share or less when war began in 1939. He
didn't know then that the war in Europe would spread to engulf the
world, nor how long it would last, nor how low prices would
ultimately go. He always said he tried to buy at the point of
maximum pessimism, but he never knew when that was. He was, though,
a long-term optimist, as is Mr. Buffett, as am I. Bill Miller July
27, 2008 All investments are subject to risk including possible
loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future
results. An investor should consider a Fund's investment
objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing.
For a free prospectus, which contains this and other information on
any Legg Mason Fund, visit
http://www.leggmason.com/individualinvestors. An investor should
read the prospectus carefully before investing. Top Ten Holdings as
of June 30, 2008 The AES Corp. (9.1%), Amazon.com Inc. (7.3%),
Aetna Inc. (5.8%), eBay Inc. (4.8%), Google Inc. (4.3%), JPMorgan
Chase and Co. (4.2%), UnitedHealth Group Inc. (4.2%), General
Electric Co. (3.9%), Hewlett-Packard Co. (3.8%), and Citigroup Inc.
(3.7%). These holdings do not include the Fund's entire investment
portfolio and may change at any time. The value approach to
investing involves the risk that those stocks deemed to be
undervalued by the portfolio manager may remain undervalued.
Because this Fund expects to hold a concentrated portfolio of a
limited number of securities, a decline in the value of these
investments would cause the Fund's overall value to decline to a
greater degree than a less concentrated portfolio. The Fund may
focus its investments in certain regions or industries, thereby
increasing its potential vulnerability to market volatility. The
views expressed in this commentary reflect those of Legg Mason
Capital Management, Inc. (LMCM) as of the date of the commentary.
Any views are subject to change at any time based on market or
other conditions, and LMCM, Legg Mason Value Trust, Inc., and Legg
Mason Investor Services, LLC (LMIS) disclaim any responsibility to
update such views. These views may differ from those of portfolio
managers and investment personnel for LMCM's affiliates and are not
intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future
results or investment advice. Because investment decisions for the
Legg Mason Funds are based on numerous factors, these views may not
be relied upon as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any
Legg Mason Fund. The information contained herein has been prepared
from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by
LMCM, Legg Mason Value Trust or LMIS as to its accuracy or
completeness. Legg Mason Capital Management, Inc. and Legg Mason
Investor Services, LLC are Legg Mason, Inc. affiliated companies.
DATASOURCE: Legg Mason Value Trust CONTACT: Mary Athridge,
+1-212-805-6035, for Legg Mason Value Trust Web site:
http://www.leggmason.com/
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