hamilton
9年前
Morgan Stanley put out an update following their week spent on the East Coast with CEO Dr. Hession. Here is the road ahead as MS sees it:
Bigger picture upside. Valuing IOC to a similar sized interest in PNGLNG (XOM's project) would equate to
~$10Bn post start-up based upon various asset comparables vs. IOC's current $1.5Bn enterprise value. There is
potential for IOC to achieve that valuation in 2021/2022, at startup of their similarly sized project which would
imply over 460% upside (assuming $3Bn of project debt attributable to IOC). There are clear execution risks yet
therein lies the upside price in IOC's equity. Funding of IOC’s equity interest in the facility (25% of $4Bn,
although we see downside to this figure given the current deflationary cycle) can be fully achieved via Total’s
resource and FID payments. Additional upside can be achieved by converting other resource and prospects into
projects, and completing a similar monetization cycle to the Total agreement in which they are currently
progressing in.
What’s next and when? Ant 4 results are expected in mid-October. Resource upside will be driven by the
extent of dolomitization to GWC (+.5Tcfe). The sidetrack hitting the reservoir higher provides some modest
uplift. Ant 6 should spud, drill, complete and test in 4Q15-1Q16. The key for Ant 6 will be whether the rock
quality is lower, as assumed, or dolomitized,like the periphery of the reef. We expect 2 appraisals of Elk/Antelope
as it relates to PAC LNG payments (1Q16). Additionally, we expect one appraisal by TOT and another one by IOC
with results of both by mid-year 2016. We also expect downside to 2016 capex guidance into year-end as IOC
shifts to non-op and see potential for exploration/appraisal deals over the several quarters to fund forward
appraisal/exploration activity.
LNG pessimism. We expect near-term pressure in the spot LNG market as new supply start-ups likely exceed
demand during the 2016-2017 period. However, we also believe in the long-term demand and believe the
lowest cost projects will proceed as selected by consumers. Further, PNG is highlighted as one of the 2 primary
growth projects within Total’s portfolio post 2020. Hence, the combination of one of the lowest cost greenfield
projects, globally, and a motivated partner, should result in execution of IOC/TOT's project. While investors will
likely discount the value of the project, given macro headwinds (up to ~50%), we believe there is currently no
value attributable to this project post Total payment based upon our resource estimate. Current actual and
perceived M&A interested in PNG-related assets corroborate a view that Majors see significant, much higher
than implied in IOC's equity.
Triceratops discovery. Triceratops 3 appraisal well flowed gas at 17.1 mmscf/d (and 200 bbl/d of condensate).
Given the lower porosity (4-6%), these results have positive implications for flow rates of lower porosity zones
such as Elk, and other prospects. The company estimates contingent resource of 1Tcfe, more than double GLJ’s
400Bcfe prior estimate. Triceratops field can potentially be tied-back to an LNG development, adding resource
potential to their core Elk-Antelope field. Next steps for IOC will be to monetize the resource with discussions
currently ongoing with interested parties.
Cash burn. There has been concern around IOC's liquidity given TOT’s cash payment is not expected to be
received until mid-2016 and the sector's focus on balance sheets given the current down cycle. In our view,
however, liquidity risk is minimal as we forecast IOC can fund operations through 2016 independent of the
resource payment. IOC has fulfilled its drilling commitments across its acreage, thus we expect their drilling
activity outside Elk/Antelope to decrease significantly until receipt of the TOT cash payment. For 2016, we expect
capex to be <$200MM and back-end loaded. Additionally, after having handed over operatorship to TOT, we
anticipate G&A to be materially reduced in 2016. All in, we estimate cash use of $200-250MM (capex + G&A).
This is versus current liquidity of $192MM cash at 2Q15 and an undrawn credit facility of $300MM.
Monetizing assets. IOC plans on monetizing its current three discoveries: Triceratops (1Tcfe P50 estimate),
Bobcat (1.5 Tcfe P50 estimate) and Raptor (5.5 Tcfe P50 estimate). Management revealed that discussion with
interested parties (including TOT and XOM) are currently ongoing and expect to close a deal similar to TOT's
Elk/Antelope - with a combination of cash payment and appraisal/development carry. We believe continued
positive exploration and appraisal results could attract a third Major oil company (other than TOT and XOM) to
enter PNG with LNG ambitions. In our view, this would increase price competition and demand for any IOC
discoveries and increase monetization pace and potential.
InterOil Corporation | September 28, 2015
MORGAN STANLEY RESEARCH
hamilton
9年前
Dr. Hession was in NYC this week ahead of the Pope. The latter wears red and white, the former wears pink.
A poster whose handle is Dr. Wu, put this up at SHU then took it down.
"IOC - Hession in NYC
Friend of mine met with Hession in NYC. Here's a few comments he sent me.
Triceratops gas water was 288 meters deeper, flow rate of 17 sqf/d could have been 24
Had tight rock but right equip/techniques resulted in good flow from less porous rock, which is has impt pos implications for reefs at EA, Ant South, Raptor, and other structures near by
World waking up to PNG. Many think Santo's 13% stake in PNGLNG is worth its market cap. Believes IOC's 30% of Papua LNG when complete will be worth $10 bil+
Papua LNG has a 22% IRR - unheard of in LNG projects. It’s all about the costs.. Total very excited. Top 3 project for them
Watching expenses carefully going into recert. Cash flow fine; $240 mil cash plus $300 mil LOC less cvt paydown. Have access to debt financing if need it but won't. No drilling obligations in 2016. Carried on Ant South. Drilling cap ex could literally be zero, esp if Raptor gets carried.
On recert, his team will work with reservoir engineers for a supreme understanding of EA reefs, porosity etc.
Recent seismic has identified 3-4 excellent prospects as good as Ant South (Mule Deer?). Could some tie into EA? Unclear yet
Raptor seismic suggests growing in size. Confident now have right equip, people, techniques to apply. May not drill this year, evaluating lots of interest in Raptor for carry deal
Will not delay recert payment to drill Ant 7. Talking with Total about ways to drill it, and get paid without delaying any aspects of the project
IMPT: UBS Aug report suggesting avg 9.5 Tcf GIP was a P90 #, which was unclear in the report. Impt because IOC gets paid on P50 which of course is a higher GIP #. Plus UBS # was initial Ant 5 and before Ant 4 and other information. Believes Arun's 94% recovery is a real analogue. So P50 will be higher than 10 Tcf with possibly 90% recovery (sounding more to me like GLJ is closer to being right, in the 9 Tcf ballpark, implying a $1.5-1.7 bil payment at recert)
OSH/Pac LNG recert is the first EA mark and set for March-April. Had divergent interests before, but now both want high #s. OSH now needs to highlight EA value for Woodside discussions."
sluicer
11年前
The new President, Hession, made a deal with Total to sell them a portion of the NG in PRL 15 and also be co-operators of a new LNG plant to be built, if the additional appraisal wells verify that the NG previously found, is actually there and can be produced to the extent that it could provide for the requirements of the new plant.
The upfront payment came up short of what the market was expecting due to the fact that Hession stated it would be a good deal. The 30% of the plant IOC will partner with TOT was also a factor, as this had to reduce the take of TOT. Had IOC sold NG to XOM and then to TOT, the stock would likely be over 100. Right now, it is below 50 on the close today and may fall further, however, there could be a short-term rise, as it is really oversold, having been nearly cut in half since the deal was announced DEC. 6th. IMO, they should have been satisfied to just sell the NG and taken the large payouts. The LNG plant may not operate until 2020, another reason for the stock cratering. They should really try to get the PNG gov't. to agree to a FLNG. They could move the ships to each prospect as they petter out and their availabilty would cut years off the NG sales. they could get ships in a couple of years to handle a smaller volume.
Garysnoop
11年前
Must read.Sir Wilson has a degree in Economics from the University of Papua New Guinea. He is a Senior Fellow of the Corporate Directors Association of Australia, an Honorary Fellow of the PNG Institute of Banking and Business Management Inc., and a Member of the Papua New Guinea Institute of Directors Inc. He was made a Commander of the British Empire (CBE) in June 2000 and awarded a Knighthood in June 2009 by Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II.
Isikeli ("Keli") Taureka was most recently the head of Chevron Corporation's Geothermal & Power Operations (GPO). Prior to his assignment with GPO, Mr. Taureka was the President of ChevronTexaco China Energy Company with responsibility for Chevron's oil and gas upstream activities in China. Earlier at Chevron, Mr. Taureka served in a variety of executive positions, including General Manager/Country Manager for Chevron New Guinea Limited, where he was responsible for oil operations in Papua New Guinea and Western Australia.
Before joining Chevron, Mr. Taureka was recruited by the then-Prime Minister Sir Rabbie Namaliu to manage the state-owned Post and Telecommunication Corp., a position to which he was re-appointed under the succeeding Prime Minister, Sir Julius Chan. Earlier, Mr. Taureka worked at the Bank of South Pacific Limited (BSP) as Deputy Managing Director of the joint venture, Resources Investment Finance Limited.
Mr. Taureka has a degree in Economics from the University of Papua New Guinea and is a citizen of Papua New Guinea.
Garysnoop
11年前
Must read.Sir Wilson has a degree in Economics from the University of Papua New Guinea. He is a Senior Fellow of the Corporate Directors Association of Australia, an Honorary Fellow of the PNG Institute of Banking and Business Management Inc., and a Member of the Papua New Guinea Institute of Directors Inc. He was made a Commander of the British Empire (CBE) in June 2000 and awarded a Knighthood in June 2009 by Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II.
Isikeli ("Keli") Taureka was most recently the head of Chevron Corporation's Geothermal & Power Operations (GPO). Prior to his assignment with GPO, Mr. Taureka was the President of ChevronTexaco China Energy Company with responsibility for Chevron's oil and gas upstream activities in China. Earlier at Chevron, Mr. Taureka served in a variety of executive positions, including General Manager/Country Manager for Chevron New Guinea Limited, where he was responsible for oil operations in Papua New Guinea and Western Australia.
Before joining Chevron, Mr. Taureka was recruited by the then-Prime Minister Sir Rabbie Namaliu to manage the state-owned Post and Telecommunication Corp., a position to which he was re-appointed under the succeeding Prime Minister, Sir Julius Chan. Earlier, Mr. Taureka worked at the Bank of South Pacific Limited (BSP) as Deputy Managing Director of the joint venture, Resources Investment Finance Limited.
Mr. Taureka has a degree in Economics from the University of Papua New Guinea and is a citizen of Papua New Guinea.
Timothy Smith
12年前
InterOil Enters Into $100 Million Secured Loan Facility
Oct 16, 2012 7:07:00 AM
PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea and HOUSTON, Oct. 16, 2012 /CNW/ - InterOil Corporation (NYSE:IOC) (POMSoX:IOC) announced that IOC and its subsidiaries, EP InterOil and InterOil Limited, have entered into a five year amortizing $100 million secured term loan facility with BNP Paribas Singapore (BNP), Bank South Pacific Limited (BSP), and Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (PNG) Limited (ANZ).
Borrowings under the facility will be used for repayment of all outstanding amounts under the term loan granted by Overseas Private Investment Corporation (OPIC) dated June 12, 2001 (currently net after Debt Service Reserve Account at $25.4 million), and general corporate purposes. The loan is secured by InterOil's right, title and interest in the fixed assets of the Napa Napa Refinery in Papua New Guinea.
The secured loan facility bears interest at LIBOR plus 6.5%. Approval has been received from Bank of Papua New Guinea, and funding is subject to release by OPIC of all securities under the existing loan agreement, and other standard closing conditions.
InterOil is pleased to have the support and confidence of three of the largest banks operating in the South Pacific. Collin Visaggio, InterOil's CFO remarked, "We are delighted to have extended our banking relationship with BNP which has led our existing $240 million working capital facility since 2005, and strengthened our existing relationship with BSP, Papua New Guinea's largest bank, and ANZ, one of the region's largest lenders. This financing should allow us to maintain our accelerated pace of upstream activity while we complete our negotiations with the PNG State and conclude our LNG partnering process. At this stage we are pleased by the constructive dialogue with the State and the increased interest in investment in Papua New Guinea following the successful election and formation of the strongest coalition government in the country's history."
Ian Clyne, BSP Group CEO, commented, "We are proud as a Papua New Guinea bank to be involved as co-lead arranger of this international syndication, and being able to strengthen our partnership with InterOil, one of PNGs leading organisations. InterOil and BSP, are committed to this emerging nation and its local communities."
Mark Baker, ANZ CEO PNG commented: "InterOil has been a long and valued relationship of ANZ and we are pleased to extend our industry know how and balance sheet support as Mandated Lead Arranger in this transaction. As an international bank with a 100-year presence in PNG and an extensive network across Asia Pacific, we are focused on providing international financial expertise and regional specialists to support the development of key industries in PNG for the benefit of our clients and the wider community."
Pierre Joseph Costa, BNP Paribas' Regional Head for Structured Finance APAC and Japan, commented: "We are proud to be part of the changing landscape in PNG, and this loan marks a further commitment of the Bank's relationship with InterOil, whom we have been partnering with since 2005."
About InterOil
InterOil Corporation is developing a vertically integrated energy business whose primary focus is Papua New Guinea and the surrounding region. InterOil's assets consist of petroleum licenses covering about 3.9 million acres, an oil refinery, and retail and commercial distribution facilities, all located in Papua New Guinea. In addition, InterOil is a shareholder in a joint venture established to construct an LNG plant in Papua New Guinea.
InterOil's common shares trade on the NYSE in US dollars.
Investor Contacts for InterOil
Wayne Andrews
Meg LaSalle
Vice President Capital Markets
Investor Relations Coordinator
Wayne.Andrews@InterOil.com
Meg.LaSalle@InterOil.com
The Woodlands, TX USA
The Woodlands, TX USA
Phone: +1-281-292-1800
Phone: +1-281-292-1800
Forward Looking Statements
This press release includes "forward-looking statements" as defined in United States federal and Canadian securities laws. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, included in this press release that address activities, events or developments that the InterOil expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements, including in particular, the use of the funds from the loan facility, and closing of the loan facility, the maintenance of the pace of upstream activity, completing negotiations with the PNG State, and concluding our LNG partnering process. These statements are based on certain assumptions made by the Company based on its experience and perception of current conditions, expected future developments and other factors it believes are appropriate in the circumstances, including the terms of the loan facility. No assurances can be given however, that these events will occur. Actual results will differ, and the difference may be material and adverse to the Company and its shareholders. Such statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of the Company, which may cause our actual results to differ materially from those implied or expressed by the forward-looking statements. Some of these factors include the risk factors discussed in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and on SEDAR, including but not limited to those in the Company's Annual Report for the year ended December 31, 2011 on Form 40-F and its Annual Information Form for the year ended December 31, 2011. In particular, there is no established market for natural gas or gas condensate in Papua New Guinea and no guarantee that gas or gas condensate from the Elk and Antelope fields will ultimately be able to be extracted and sold commercially.
Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in the Company's Form 40-F, available from us at www.interoil.com or from the SEC at www.sec.gov and its Annual Information Form available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.
----------------------------------------------
http://www.interoil.com
Fastmandoo
12年前
PNG Government Suspends Notice
PrintAlert
Interoil Corp. (NYSE:IOC)
Intraday Stock Chart
Today : Wednesday 29 August 2012
PNG Government Suspends Notice
PR Newswire
PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea and HOUSTON, Aug. 29, 2012
PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea and HOUSTON, Aug. 29, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- InterOil Corporation (NYSE:IOC) (POMSoX:IOC) is pleased to announce that it has received confirmation that the Independent State of Papua New Guinea has suspended the May 14, 2012 notice of intention to cancel the LNG Project Agreement between Liquid Niugini Gas Limited and the Independent State of Papua New Guinea. This suspension was previously announced by the Minister of Petroleum and Energy, the Honourable William Duma. The notice triggered a six month consultation period during which the parties were to explore steps to deal with or remedy the State's concerns.
Since the notice was received, InterOil has had constructive meetings with a number of PNG State departments, including the Department of Petroleum and Energy, the Department of Treasury and the Department of Justice. The Government has reached the stage where it has agreed on a basis for suspension of the notice. Negotiations between the Government and InterOil will continue with a view to finalizing detailed specifications of the proposed LNG Project satisfactory to the State. The suspension of the notice will remain in place until the National Executive Council has approved the final concept of the LNG project.
InterOil is very appreciative of the cooperation and assistance it has received from Minister Duma and his department in reaching this important stage, and looks forward to working with them to bring this project to fruition for the mutual benefit of Papua New Guinea, InterOil, its shareholders and partners.
About InterOil
InterOil Corporation is developing a vertically integrated energy business whose primary focus is Papua New Guinea and the surrounding region. InterOil's assets consist of petroleum licenses covering about 3.9 million acres, an oil refinery, and retail and commercial distribution facilities, all located in Papua New Guinea. In addition, InterOil is a shareholder in a joint venture established to construct an LNG plant in Papua New Guinea.
InterOil's common shares trade on the NYSE in US dollars.
Investor Contacts for InterOil
Wayne Andrews
Meg LaSalle
Vice President Capital Markets
Investor Relations Coordinator
Wayne.Andrews@InterOil.com
Meg.LaSalle@InterOil.com
The Woodlands, TX USA
The Woodlands, TX USA
Phone: +1-281-292-1800
Phone: +1-281-292-1800
Forward Looking Statements
This press release includes "forward-looking statements" as defined in United States federal and Canadian securities laws. All statements, other than statements of historical facts, included in this press release that address activities, events or developments that the InterOil expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future are forward-looking statements, including in particular, the intention of the PNG State to terminate the Project Agreement, the ability to attract a strategic LNG partner, the ability to demonstrate compliance by InterOil of the terms of the Project Agreement, the construction and development of the proposed large scale LNG project and condensate stripping project, business prospects, strategies, regulatory developments, the ability to obtain financing on acceptable terms. These statements are based on certain assumptions made by the Company based on its experience and perception of current conditions, expected future developments and other factors it believes are appropriate in the circumstances, including the terms of the Project Agreement and the status of the LNG strategic partner search status. No assurances can be given however, that these events will occur. Actual results will differ, and the difference may be material and adverse to the Company and its shareholders. Such statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of the Company, which may cause our actual results to differ materially from those implied or expressed by the forward-looking statements. Some of these factors include the risk factors discussed in the Company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and on SEDAR, including but not limited to those in the Company's Annual Report for the year ended December 31, 2011 on Form 40-F and its Annual Information Form for the year ended December 31, 2011. In particular, there is no established market for natural gas or gas condensate in Papua New Guinea and no guarantee that gas or gas condensate from the Elk and Antelope fields will ultimately be able to be extracted and sold commercially.
Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in the Company's Form 40-F, available from us at www.interoil.com or from the SEC at www.sec.gov and its Annual Information Form available on SEDAR at www.sedar.com.
SOURCE InterOil Corporation
More IOC MessagesLatest Interoil Corp., IOC MessagesI like the prospects here. Will be posting
Jett Rink • Wed Aug 29, 2012 1:49 AM (9 hours ago)79023082
Interoil Corp. (IOC)
Fastmandoo • Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:28 PM (12 hours ago)79020195
Nice to see this trading over $80.. Lets
Fastmandoo • Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:33 AM78989540
And a good evening to you too (
Jett Rink • Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:24 AM78983251
Good Morning IOC Holders..............
Fastmandoo • Mon Aug 27, 2012 8:08 AM78945557
I would agree with you. Seems like we
Jett Rink • Mon Aug 27, 2012 2:39 AM78943697
Looking Great here.. Lotz more to come here
Fastmandoo • Sun Aug 26, 2012 6:11 PM78936428
InterOil Sets Second Quarter 2012 Conference Call Date
Jett Rink • Thu Aug 2, 2012 3:40 PM78146431
Not a shabby day today!!!! This is
novicetrader1 • Wed Aug 1, 2012 4:11 PM78090093
why? what is happening on Friday to
thebaldeagle • Wed Aug 1, 2012 3:44 PM78087598
Big pop coming on Friday.
meiharuka • Wed Aug 1, 2012 6:25 AM78060717
Go IOC!!!!!!!
novicetrader1 • Thu Jul 26, 2012 1:38 PM77900457
~ Monday! $IOC ~ Earnings posted, pending or
MACDgyver • Mon Mar 19, 2012 2:28 AM73411674
IOC Still an animal eom
Take em • Wed Jan 11, 2012 7:10 PM70785266
IOC
Take em • Fri Oct 28, 2011 6:32 PM68471185
IOC @ 43.25
$treetKing • Fri Oct 14, 2011 11:40 AM67995850
IOC=ANIMAL
Take em • Sun Oct 9, 2011 3:51 PM67821529
+7%
$treetKing • Thu Oct 6, 2011 10:46 AM67742894
IOC bouncing!!!!
$treetKing • Wed Oct 5, 2011 6:52 PM67725516
-17% - Even uglier today....down to just over
TampaTradr • Tue Oct 4, 2011 2:23 PM67674477Bookmark With :
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Timothy Smith
12年前
InterOil Sets Second Quarter 2012 Conference Call Date
Aug 2, 2012 10:01:00 AM
PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea and HOUSTON, Aug. 2, 2012 /CNW/ - InterOil Corporation (NYSE: IOC) (POMSoX: IOC), today announced that it will release financial and operating results for the second quarter of 2012 after the market closes for trading on Monday, August 13, 2012 with full text of the news release and accompanying financials available on the company's website at www.interoil.com. A conference call will be held on Tuesday, August 14, 2012, at 7:30 a.m. Central (8:30 a.m. Eastern) to discuss the financial and operating results, as well as the company's outlook.
The conference call can be heard through a live audio web cast on the company's website at www.interoil.com or accessed by dialing (612) 338-9017. A replay of the broadcast will be available soon afterwards on the website.
About InterOil
InterOil Corporation is developing a vertically integrated energy business whose primary focus is Papua New Guinea and the surrounding region. InterOil's assets consist of petroleum licenses covering about 3.9 million acres, an oil refinery, and retail and commercial distribution facilities, all located in Papua New Guinea. In addition, InterOil is a shareholder in a joint venture established to construct an LNG plant in Papua New Guinea.
InterOil's common shares trade on the NYSE in US dollars.
Investor Contacts for InterOil
Wayne Andrews
Meg LaSalle
Vice President Capital Markets
Investor Relations Coordinator
Wayne.Andrews@InterOil.com
Meg.LaSalle@InterOil.com
The Woodlands, TX USA
The Woodlands, TX USA
Phone: +1 281-292-1800
Phone: +1 281-292-1800
----------------------------------------------
http://www.interoil.com
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