Avid Bioservices Inc (CDMO) 銘柄情報

Institutional ownership I jumped from 124.3% to:
Institutional Shares (Long) 81,254,317 - 127.03% (ex 13D/G) - change of 9.15MM shares 13.01% MRQ

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/avid-bioservices-cdmo-started-sale-155549593.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIb8JzYyJrOx4--_Gu1HTiEyHEjbxHzT5l7JpyndZAVz9Z1pMc_r-ZGNvE0cOiB4bqNaz9WvMtOHGtdEAzCH1YIxncfRZr9oRGSeoFoBM_Eb8lNKjjx0QBKVLWxDS0QgpjNdQY-F-dlVXlhbFYRDAAACZKV4D3DYJx5T8XyfJInz

The backlog at 07/31/2024 was $219m. Nick Green was asked if he thought this would be over the four or five quarters. He leaned towards four quarters as more early stage customers. The revenue projections used to see if the deal is fair are $186m for 2026 and $221m for 2027? Figure that one out.

I Agree. During Buildout All Financial Projections Were...

higher than the suddenly low projections they supplied with this buyout paperwork.
Do they think we are stupid?
Imho, they completed the buildout with a particular customer in mind,
and I think after this buyout, it will "eventually" be owned by that same Big Pharma customer...

I still have a large number of shares and am about to vote no, no, no!

Glta StockHOLDers. Perhaps we will at least force a bump up of the purchase price?

Happy 2025...

Totally agree Corp Alagarn. I’m perplexed none of the 4 law firms supposedly investigating this have made no public comments yet. Surely there is some smoke there.

I was waiting to see if anything materialized that would change my mind (didn't think so) but read this post and voted no, no, no. I don't have an insignificant number of shares.

A couple of things. They have always glossed over the convertible note F-up like it is something that happens in the normal course of business. It never happens. Whose fault was it? Nobody has ever been held accountable, which leads me to beleive, with my tinfoil hat firmly in place, that it was intentional. At least have the decency to scapegoat somebody instead of giving them millions. This cost the company tens of millions of market cap at least. Likely over $100m.

They finished the buildout that increases revenue capacity to over $400m in early 2024 and their revenue projections for 2029 are $283m, about 2/3 full? When did they ever indicate anything like that when they were spending our money on the expansion? The numbers they provided in their projections to justify the $12.50 are bogus or they have been lying to us all along.

The convertible note debacle and the adjusted conversion price of less than ten bucks, along with the interest rate going from 1.25% to 7% really screwed the shareholders and the person/people responsible for it our cashing out.

This stinks from the top down.

Now why would 2 parties throw dead money at this issue?… those billing hours by the lawyers aren’t cheap… unless some parties can now say they were “misled” when they cast their votes?…can of worms costs have gone up with inflation…imao…r

CDMO Board Issues New SEC 14A Filing, Link...

https://ir.avidbio.com/node/21266/html

Seems not everyone is as happy about this sale as the board hoped, lol.

Glta StockHOLDers!

Selling the company when the new administration is going to push for drugs to be manufactured in the USA is crazy !!! The institutional investors can not be that stupid to sell CDMO now ! All computer generated votes can be changed up to the day before the vote. NO NO NO

Michael

You might want to look at VRNA. They have a recently launched phosphodiasterase inhibitor for COPD patients. Will probably become SOC. Also have other drugs in pI and P2 trials.

Yes, threes and Djon...Agreed! I like many others have been looking for other opportunities in the Biotech market....now I am not promoting this, but you may want to research it yourself and put it on your watch screen....IBRX...has an approved product for bladder cancer, but working on a lot more indications.

I have been selling CDMO and buying IBRX.....I think it is a great buy here with lots of upside potential....at the very least, I think you have a really good shot at a trade with 20% upside....but of course do your own DD.

Best all.

I think Mr Green is a Dic

I don’t think Mr Green has a Dic…

Dicks.
Nick Green, president and CEO of Avid Bioservices, said, “We are pleased that ISS and Glass Lewis recognize the premium value of the GHO and Ampersand transaction for Avid stockholders, as well as the process run by our Board of Directors to ensure we are maximizing value. We encourage our stockholders to vote FOR our transaction with GHO and Ampersand today.”

In making its recommendation, ISS stated in its January 17, 2025, report:*

“The sales process was sufficiently thorough, shareholders are receiving a premium, the implied valuation supports the premium being offered, and the cash consideration provides liquidity and certainty of value for shareholders.”

They really like to pump that "certainty of value". It's an investment. There's no certainty of value for any investment until it's sold.

For a company that never PR'd anything they sure are hustling their lies to get more shareholders to capitulate their thieving scheme.
Looking at the latest 14a .. Could be they don't have teh votes. Let them rot in hell.

with this volume it probably means they have the votes.

AltraVue Capital, LLC as of 12/31 filed a 13g for 3,797,813 shrs ...unchanged from 9/30...r

Thanks Bob.
Clue was when they said they could not talk on the phone due to a throat/laryngitis issue.

You didn't seem a Lululemon kinda guy. ;)

tech200

I still say where are the fillings if all those shares were purchased ? Also how can there be 120% of the shares outstanding that was reported ? The board has to know where those shares are . At least 20% short is between 10/15 million shares that can be voted on by the BUYER not the short seller IMO

Michael

Sorry was not me.  Problem has been fixed.   Thanks

That makes no sense. Sale to Ampersand was announced on Nov 6. So the buyers had more than a month to buy shares and vote yes to the sale. How is that fair? The buyer should not be able to do that.

I got one, responded and was asked to do something that seemed unusual so I responded and said sorry, couldn't help

I got one too.

Looking to get a message to Bifest.

I think you sent me an email but am so distrusting of scams these days that I am leery to respond.
Was it you and if so what can I do for you?

Question - So how does this work with trading continuing after the date you reference? (12/11/24) On that day, say there were no shorts to confuse thing. Every vote could be cast by the shareholders of record. Then, 6 weeks later there are probably at least several million shares were sold, do the shareholders as of 12/11 still vote even though they are no longer shareholders? Can you confirm that is the way it works?

JBAIN

I WAS SEEKING A FINALIZATION DATE FOR THIS TRAVESTY OF JUSTICE IMHO; and EVERYWHERE STATES SOMETIME IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2025!
END IT ALREADY AND PUT US LOYAL; LONGSTANDING SHAREHOLDERS OFF INTO NEW PASTURES!!
AS A PPHM INTO CDMO SHAREHOLDER SINCE 1996; AND a huge Dr Philip Thorpe fan and follower this is all such a disservice to his legacy with TARVACIN/BAVITUXAB! 

The PPS KEEPS INCHING UP TO BUYOUT PRICE; SO HOPEFULLY THIS GETS PUT TO REST EXPEDITIOUSLY SAVE FOR A WHITE KNIGHT OFFER OF $18-20! It has been a privilege and an honor getting to moderate this board, especially in being the longest tenured blocked person ever on this board back in the PPHM days! Thanks for all your comments and support over the years as it was always appreciated!

<a href="https://www.stocktitan.net/news/CDMOP/avid-bioservices-announces-expiration-of-hart-scott-rodino-waiting-pt9saede8qvx.html#:~:text=When%20will%20Avid%20Bioservices%20(CDMO,and%20other%20customary%20closing%20conditions.">https://www.stocktitan.net/news/CDMOP/avid-bioservices-announces-expiration-of-hart-scott-rodino-waiting-pt9saede8qvx.html#:~:text=When%20will%20Avid%20Bioservices%20(CDMO,and%20other%20customary%20closing%20conditions.</a>

No, No, and No.Then sold position after 20 something years. Bought Kodak. Feels weird not owning anymore.

Shareholders of record as of 12/11/24.

One question. I would think that the shares that are bought after the acquisition announcement would not be eligible to vote on the proposed sale of the company. Isn't that the case?

Hopefully avid and all avid executives houses and avid plants burn down to the ground....Karma...

You bring up some good points, but due to privacy issues, even though you can find out how many shares are shorted, it is very difficult to find out who the owner of these shorts are. You are correct, whoever is accumulating shares even in an agreed takeover situation must file a 13 D form within 10 days of accumulating over 5% of a public company even in an agreed takeover.

Now the strange thing, is that they can also file an abbreviated version of this(13 G) which allows certain institutional investors such as registered investment companies/banks etc., which allows them to only report their holdings 45 days after year end....and in this case I assume that Ampersand and company would qualify here as so far they have not reported their holdings via a 13 D, and I am certain(OK almost certain) they already control enough shares to swing the vote in favour of the takeover.

So that brings us once again to why the registered shorts have not covered, and who would benefit from this? And this would depend on who owns and controls these shares......again, not sure if this matters at this point as I believe this is a done deal unfortunately!

westjetter
I do not understand your answer (1) short shares do not get to vote so how does that help them (2) If in fact they pick up enough shares to swing the vote in their favor where are the required fillings when they reached between 1% to 50 % to be able to vote too assure the outcome ? I believe at 10% you have to file within days of accumulating that much stock TIA

Michael

With Meta devastating their DEI depts i guess its a safe bet to say that anyone with or contemplating a degree in HR gender management studies is going to be looking at attending MIckey D's Hamburg college pretty soon...budda bud da da...imao...r

no, no, and no

Very simple....Ampersand and company short the shares and therefore will not need to cover because they will own all of the shares when this deal completes. I guess the chance they take, is that the takeover is not approved, but I am sure they already have enough shares picked up in the first couple of weeks to ensure the vote goes their way.

Covering before the vote tally ? If you are short how do you cover after the sale is approved ? TIA

Michael

In light of Blackrock backing out participating in that UN sponsored climate change summit.. Can i bid on that Committed Badge from EcoVadis if it gets auctioned off?...r

cheynew

Too bad they could not put in as much effort in our loan deal as they have done in this presentation IMO

Michael
voted no no no

Wow, Ampersand must be a bunch of dopes for buying this POS for $12.50.

Today's released presentation looks like the proxy and the opposite of the last few years of annual meetings. Not to mention graphics and timeframes etc. are all cherry-picked in an attempt to fool shareholders. Some of these things are pathetic. Like slide 4, where they give the impression the multiple is better than all the companies, EXCEPT, their multiple is based on the MADE-UP probability-adjusted revenue against companies that they hand selected, with no mention of others or why these particular companies were used, other than the obvious that they provided the desired comparisons.

I just hope the investigating law firms look closely at the presentation released today from a material/inside information perspective. Green filed the form 144s for the intent to sell the day after the definitive proxy additional information was filed. Green cannot sell if he has material inside information that is not publicly known. The slides are a regurgitation of the proxy, but neither contain vital information. For example, slide 10 talks about their probability-adjusted revenue projections and applying two different sensitivities. There is no backing material for the figures. Basically they are made up by management. from the proxy.
between June and July 2024, Avid management, at the direction of the Board of Directors, prepared non-public, unaudited, prospective financial information for fiscal years 2025 through 2029 based on Avid management’s probability-adjusted five-year plan (the “Projections”), which assumed an implied revenue compound annual growth rate of 15.1%. The Board of Directors directed Moelis to use, and rely on, the Projections in connection with its financial analyses and for rendering its fairness opinion in connection with the Merger, as described in the section of this proxy statement captioned “The Merger—Opinion of Moelis & Company LLC”.

Basically they made up an estimate and used it as part of the justification that the offer was fair! the rational for the sensitivities and how numbers were arrived at is important information that is non-public.

FFTT
JBAIN

Well we all know the BOD and execs are party to a FIRE SALE at this point in time...imao..r

Form DEFA14A filed
https://ir.avidbio.com/node/21216/html

I know the area well and the fires are not near Avid.

Interesting. Got a call from "Avid Bioservices"...reminding me about the vote and offering me help to do so.

According to this dailymail interactive map there's a "active fire" about a mile southeast of avid?... https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14260453/thousands-evacuate-pacific-palisades-los-angeles-fire-california.html ...r

Equivalent to dealing off the bottom of the deck for the Wall Street crowd. Signaling something I would think. All IMO
The sleaze oozing out in pre and after market:)

>>> RISK ARBITRAGE SEEMS TO BE IN PLAY HERE!<<<
Risk arbitrage, also known as Merger Arbitrage, is an investment strategy to PROFIT FROM the narrowing of a gap of the Trading Price of a Target's stock and the acquirer's Valuation of that stock in an intended takeover deal!! ... We, the shareholders whom have bought their shares unlike most directors and board members now must decide to either WAIT OUT the merger to receive the low $12.50 offer, or to WAIT & SEE IF a new offer will materialize!!

Management or MISmanagement of CDMO should be utterly ashamed of themselves and ILL BEGOTTEN GAINGS at Shareholders expense!! All IMHO as always ...

2 days in a row …a trade at 6am for 2 shrs at $12.95?…r