U.S. Leading Economic Index Shows Modest Drop In December

With a drop in housing permits and weak new orders in manufacturing leading the decline, the Conference Board released a report on Friday showing a modest decrease in leading U.S. economic indicators in the month of December.

The Conference Board said its leading economic index edged down by 0.2 percent in December after climbing by a revised 0.5 percent in November. Economists had expected the index to slip by 0.1 percent.

Ataman Ozyildirim, Director of Business Cycles and Growth Research at the Conference Board, said, "The index continues to suggest moderate growth in the near-term despite the economy losing some momentum at the end of 2015."

"While the LEI's growth rate has been on the decline, it's too early to interpret this as a substantial rise in the risk of recession," he added.

The modest decrease by the leading economic index reflected negative contributions from five of the ten indicators that make up the index.

The negative contributors included the ISM new orders index, building permits, average weekly initial jobless claims, stock prices, and average consumer expectations for business conditions.

Meanwhile, positive contributions from the interest rate spread, the Leading Credit Index, manufacturers' new orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft, and manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials helped limit the downside.

The Conference Board also said the coincident economic index inched up by 0.1 percent in December, matching the uptick seen in November.

The modest increase reflected positive contributions from employees on non-farm payrolls, personal income less transfer payments and manufacturing and trade sales.

Additionally, the report said the lagging economic index rose by 0.2 percent in December following a 0.3 percent increase in November.

The positive contributors included the average duration of unemployment, the average prime rate charged by banks, the ratio of consumer installment credit outstanding to personal income, and the ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales.

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