Bitcoin Not Out Of Danger Yet, NVT Golden Cross Warns
2024年5月16日 - 11:00AM
NEWSBTC
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Network Value to Transactions (NVT)
Golden Cross still has a high value, a sign that may be bearish for
BTC. Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross Is Still Near Historical Top Zone In
a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst discussed the recent trend
in the NVT Golden Cross for BTC and its implications for the price.
The NVT ratio is an indicator that tells us about how the Bitcoin
market cap compares against its transaction volume. The metric is
generally used to judge whether the asset’s price is fair or not
right now. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Form Capitulation
Signal: What It Means When the indicator’s value is high, it
suggests the network’s value (that is, the market cap) is high
compared to its ability to transact coins (the volume). Such a
trend implies that the asset may be overpriced currently. On the
other hand, the low metric means the cryptocurrency’s price may be
undervalued due to a rebound as the market cap is low compared to
the volume. In the context of the current topic, the NVT ratio
itself isn’t of interest; rather, it is a modified form called the
NVT Golden Cross. This metric compares the short-term trend (the
10-day moving average) with the long-term trend (30-day MA) of the
NVT ratio to identify tops and bottoms. Here is a chart that shows
the trend in this Bitcoin indicator over the past couple of years:
In the graph, the quant has highlighted the two relevant zones for
the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross. It would appear that when this metric
is above 2.2, a top can be probable for the cryptocurrency as its
price is overvalued in this zone. Similarly, the NVT Golden Cross
being under -1.6 can lead to a bottom formation for the asset. The
Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross has ventured into the red territory for
the last couple of months. Each time it has seen a decline out of
the zone, it has followed up with another rise into the zone. As
such, it hasn’t been able to visit the bullish region yet. At
present, the metric has just made another exit out of the top zone,
but its value is still quite near it. Thus, while a top may not be
especially probable now, a lasting uptrend is also unlikely to
happen. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Linked To Binance Vs
Coinbase Battle, Quant Reveals It’s possible that Bitcoin won’t be
completely out of danger of observing more price drawdowns until
the NVT Golden Cross can see a decrease in the green zone. It now
remains to be seen how the indicator develops in the near future
and whether its changes will affect the BTC price. BTC Price At the
time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around the $64,900 mark, up
more than 4% over the past week. Featured image from Bastian
Riccardi on Unsplash.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from
TradingView.com
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