Direxion Daily Retail Bull 3X ETF (RETL)

⭐ 1. Base Assumptions (Starting Point)
These are the inputs the model uses:

IMMERSE is a ready-to-drink plant-based protein beverage

Launch footprint: U.S. retail + online + selective food-service

Category size: $20B+ global protein drink market

BYND brand recognition: high, even after recent declines

Price point: $3.99–$5.49 per bottle

Gross margin potential: 25–40% (higher than frozen foods)

📊 2. Scenario Model (12-Month Outlook)
🟢 Scenario A — Bull Case (30% probability)
IMMERSE becomes a breakout hit.

Key Drivers
Strong adoption in gyms, convenience stores, and grocery chains

Influencer-driven fitness marketing

Repeat purchase rate > 40%

BYND secures 2–3 major retail expansions

BYND launches new flavors + multipacks

Estimated Impact
$80M–$150M in IMMERSE revenue

Gross margin improves by 300–500 bps

BYND sentiment flips from “declining brand” to “turnaround story”

BYND gains new shelf space in beverage aisles

BYND becomes a two-category company (meat + drinks)

Bull Case Outcome
IMMERSE becomes BYND’s fastest-growing product line ever, and analysts begin modeling BYND as a functional beverage company, not just a plant-meat company.

🟡 Scenario B — Mid Case (50% probability)
IMMERSE performs solidly but not explosively.

Key Drivers
Moderate retail adoption

Good but not viral consumer reception

BYND secures steady repeat orders

Limited food-service penetration

Estimated Impact
$30M–$60M in IMMERSE revenue

Margins improve modestly

BYND stabilizes revenue declines

Brand perception improves slightly

Mid Case Outcome
IMMERSE becomes a respectable, steady contributor, helping BYND diversify but not transforming the company.

🔴 Scenario C — Bear Case (20% probability)
IMMERSE underperforms.

Key Drivers
Crowded protein drink market

Weak retail sell-through

BYND struggles with marketing execution

Consumers prefer established brands (Fairlife, Premier, OWYN)

Estimated Impact

Yeah but. You still around?...
Hope so, this has been on fire of lately, or early
2021....

aha! now I get how to add a chart!

RETL seasonality favorable
Stockcharts shows seasonality favorable in Sept and strong in Oct & Nov.
It could happen!

RETL in July '17 bounced off 18 mo low with 3 very hi vol up days. now back retesting that 24 area for 3rd time in 2 mos. Seasonality (in StockCharts.com) improves in Sep and strong in Oct, Nov. better employment, poss tax cut could pave way for better results. But for now this dog just wont hunt!

$RETL DD Notes ~ http://www.ddnotesmaker.com/RETL

bullish

$RETL charts

basic chart ## source: stockcharts.com



basic chart ## source: stockscores.com



big daily chart ## source: stockcharts.com



big weekly chart ## source: stockcharts.com


$RETL company information

## source: otcmarkets.com

Link: http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/RETL/company-info
Ticker: $RETL
OTC Market Place: Not Available



## STOCK DETAILS ##
After Hours Quote (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/RETL/after-hours
Option Chain (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/RETL/option-chain
Historical Prices (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=RETL+Historical+Prices
Company Profile (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=RETL+Profile
Industry (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/in?s=RETL+Industry

## COMPANY NEWS ##
Market Stream (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/RETL/stream
Latest news (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/RETL/news - http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=RETL+Headlines

## STOCK ANALYSIS ##
Analyst Research (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/RETL/analyst-research
Guru Analysis (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/RETL/guru-analysis
Stock Report (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/RETL/stock-report
Competitors (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/RETL/competitors
Stock Consultant (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/RETL/stock-consultant
Stock Comparison (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/RETL/stock-comparison
Investopedia (investopedia.com): http://www.investopedia.com/markets/stocks/RETL/?wa=0
Research Reports (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/RETL/research
Basic Tech. Analysis (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=RETL+Basic+Tech.+Analysis
Barchart (barchart.com): http://www.barchart.com/quotes/stocks/RETL

## FUNDAMENTALS ##
Call Transcripts (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/RETL/call-transcripts
Annual Report (companyspotlight.com): http://www.companyspotlight.com/library/companies/keyword/RETL
Income Statement (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/RETL/financials?query=income-statement
Revenue/EPS (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/RETL/revenue-eps
SEC Filings (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/RETL/sec-filings
Latest filings (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/RETL/filings
Latest financials (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/RETL/financials
Short Interest (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/RETL/short-interest
Dividend History (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/RETL/dividend-history
RegSho (regsho.com): http://www.regsho.com/tools/symbol_stats.php?sym=RETL&search=search
OTC Short Report (otcshortreport.com): http://otcshortreport.com/index.php?index=RETL
Short Sales (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/RETL/short-sales
Key Statistics (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=RETL+Key+Statistics
Insider Roster (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ir?s=RETL+Insider+Roster
Income Statement (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=RETL
Balance Sheet (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bs?s=RETL
Cash Flow (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cf?s=RETL+Cash+Flow&annual

## HOLDINGS ##
Major holdings (cnbc.com): http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/RETL/tab/8.1
Insider transactions (yahoo.com): http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=RETL+Insider+Transactions
Insider transactions (secform4.com): http://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/RETL.htm
Insider transactions (insidercrow.com): http://www.insidercow.com/history/company.jsp?company=RETL
Ownership Summary (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/RETL/ownership-summary
Institutional Holdings (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/RETL/institutional-holdings
Insiders (SEC Form 4) (nasdaq.com): http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/RETL/insider-trades
Insider Disclosure (otcmarkets.com): http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/RETL/insider-transactions

## SOCIAL MEDIA AND OTHER VARIOUS SOURCES ##
PST (pennystocktweets.com): http://www.pennystocktweets.com/stocks/profile/RETL
Market Watch (marketwatch.com): http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/RETL
Bloomberg (bloomberg.com): http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/RETL:US
Morningstar (morningstar.com): http://quotes.morningstar.com/stock/s?t=RETL
Bussinessweek (businessweek.com): http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot_article.asp?ticker=RETL



$RETL DD Notes ~ http://www.ddnotesmaker.com/RETL