Today, Veros Real Estate Solutions (Veros®), an industry leader
in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation services,
released its 2024 Q2 VeroFORECASTSM, projecting an average
nationwide appreciation of 3.2% over the next 12 months. This
represents a marginal increase from the previous quarter's forecast
of 2.9%.
VeroFORECAST evaluates home prices in over three hundred of the
nation’s largest housing markets, and Veros is committed to the
data science of predicting home value based on rigorous analysis of
the fundamentals and interrelationships of numerous economic,
housing, and geographic variables pertaining to home value.
Home price growth forecasts remain positive at 3.2%, despite
conflicting housing market signals. While rising inventory provides
more options for buyers compared to that in 2023, prices remain
stubbornly high. This is partly due to the limited impact of the
inventory increase, considering the pre-pandemic levels.
Additionally, the rise in available properties might be in less
desirable categories, leaving a shortage of the most sought-after
homes in many markets.
On the other hand, the number of homes sold has dipped compared
to last year. This is likely due to elevated mortgage rates and
high home prices impacting affordability. This highlights a key
market shift: increasing options for buyers, but continued pressure
on affordability from high prices and interest rates. While demand
has cooled slightly, a backlog of unmet demand, particularly among
first-time buyers, remains a significant factor supporting price
levels. Additionally, a robust job market with rising wages can
further support price levels, even as mortgage rates remain
elevated.
However, it is important to remember that the housing market is
regional. National trends might not always translate directly to
specific cities or regions. While some areas might see price
stabilization or even slight decreases, others could remain very
competitive with high prices.
House prices are rising fastest in the Northeast and Midwest
because compared to the high prices on the West Coast and Sun Belt,
these areas offer significantly more affordable housing options.
This attracts first-time homebuyers and those priced out of pricier
markets.
The Northeast and Midwest dominate the list of top housing
markets for the next year, with projected appreciation ranging from
6.3% to 7.7%. These regions offer a blend of strong economies and
relatively affordable housing, attracting buyers. Notably, two
Pennsylvania cities (Lancaster, Reading), Rochester (NY),
Manchester (NH), and six Midwestern metros (Akron & Mansfield,
OH; Rockford, IL; Grand Rapids, MI; Topeka, KS; Lafayette, IN) lead
the pack.
Rank
Metropolitan Statistical Area
Forecast
1
READING, PA
7.7%
2
ROCHESTER, NY
7.5%
3
ROCKFORD, IL
7.3%
4
LANCASTER, PA
6.9%
5
LAFAYETTE-WEST LAFAYETTE, IN
6.8%
6
MANCHESTER-NASHUA, NH
6.6%
7
GRAND RAPIDS-WYOMING-KENTWOOD, MI
6.4%
8
TOPEKA, KS
6.4%
9
AKRON, OH
6.4%
10
MANSFIELD, OH
6.3%
The ten weakest housing markets are expected to see modest price
declines (-1.0% to -1.8%) over the next year. These markets are
diverse: some face high unemployment and struggle to attract
residents, while others grapple with an oversupply of new
construction dampening bidding wars. Additionally, rising property
damage and insurance costs due to natural disasters in some Florida
metros, coupled with potential affordability concerns in areas like
Austin, are deterring buyers. This interplay of local supply,
demand, economic, and climate factors underscores the importance of
localized housing market trends.
Rank
Metropolitan Statistical Area
Forecast
1
LAKE CHARLES, LA
-1.8%
2
LONGVIEW, TX
-1.7%
3
BROWNSVILLE-HARLINGEN, TX
-1.6%
4
WACO, TX
-1.4%
5
CAPE CORAL-FORT MYERS, FL
-1.4%
6
BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR, TX
-1.3%
7
AUSTIN-ROUND ROCK-SAN MARCOS, TX
-1.2%
8
ST. GEORGE, UT
-1.2%
9
SAN ANTONIO-NEW BRAUNFELS, TX
-1.1%
10
MYRTLE BEACH-CONWAY-NORTH MYRTLE BEACH,
SC
-1.0%
VeroFORECAST Methodology
The quarterly VeroFORECAST reports to clients by subscription
and to industry media in a summary overview. The current report is
based on 325 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) data, including
16,424 ZIP codes, 976 counties, and 82% U.S. residents. The report
is a projected increase twelve months forward.
- Download the Q2 2024 – Q2 2025 VeroFORECAST results as a PDF
infographic.
- Download the 10 Strongest-Performing Markets graphic only.
Source: Veros Real Estate Solutions (Veros®)
This information is intended for use by the media for economic
reporting and should only be used for physical or digital
publication or broadcast, in whole or in part, and must be sourced
from Veros Real Estate Solutions. The company name must be visible
on the screen or website if the data are illustrated with maps,
charts, graphs, or other visual elements. For questions, analysis,
interpretation of the data, or permission to reproduce, contact
communications@veros.com.
About Reena Agrawal, Research Economist
Reena Agrawal has a Ph.D. in Economics from Vanderbilt
University. She has fifteen years of experience in macroeconomic
forecasting, sectoral research, feasibility studies of complex
projects, and preparing reports for multi-national clients.
About Veros Real Estate Solutions (Veros®)
A mortgage technology innovator since 2001, Veros is a proven
leader in enterprise risk management and collateral valuation
services. The firm combines predictive technology, data analytics,
and industry expertise to deliver advanced automated solutions that
control risk and increase profits throughout the mortgage industry,
from loan origination to servicing and securitization. Veros’
services include automated valuation, fraud and risk detection,
portfolio analysis, forecasting, and next-generation collateral
risk management platforms. Veros is the primary architect and
technology provider of the GSEs’ Uniform Collateral Data Portal®
(UCDP®). Veros also works closely with the FHA to support its
Electronic Appraisal Delivery (EAD) portal. The company is also
making the home-buying process more efficient for our nation’s
Veterans through its appraisal management work with the Department
of Veterans Affairs. For more information, visit www.veros.com or
call 866-458-3767.
View source
version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240702886341/en/
Heather Zeller, Vice President of Marketing
Communications@veros.com (714) 415-6300