The Phoenix Management, a part of J.S. Held, second quarter Lending Survey results highlight concern about the impact of continued elevated interest rates and the economic uncertainty that accompanies it.

JERICHO, N.Y., June 26, 2024 /PRNewswire-PRWeb/ -- Global consulting firm J.S. Held, proudly celebrating 50 transformative years, reveals the "Lending Climate in America" survey results from Phoenix Management, a part of J.S. Held. The second quarter survey results highlight concern about the impact of continued elevated interest rates and the economic uncertainty that accompanies it.

Phoenix's Q2 2024 "Lending Climate in America" survey asked lenders which factors could have the strongest potential to impact the economy in the upcoming six months. Two-thirds of lenders are most concerned about the interest rate/policy risk, while one-third of lenders believe the US budget deficit and the stability of the stock market have the strongest potential to impact the economy. Lenders also expressed concern regarding geopolitical risk (war), the looming debt crisis, and constrained liquidity in capital markets. To see the Q2 2024 "Lending Climate in America" results, historical survey results, or to participate in future surveys, please visit https://www.phoenixmanagement.com/lending-survey/.

Lenders revealed what actions their customers may take in the next six months. Half of the surveyed lenders believe their customers will enter new markets or raise additional capital, the latter following an anticipated decrease in interest rates. Introducing new products/services and making new capital investments follow closely with a third of lenders expressing those plans for their customers.

All respondents identified the retail, restaurant, and hospitality industries as the most likely to experience volatility in the next six months, followed closely by real estate at 83% of respondents.

Additionally, Phoenix's "Lending Climate in America" survey asked lenders if their respective institutions plan to tighten, maintain, or relax their loan structures for various sized loans. Of the various loan sizes (over $25M, $15-25M, $5-15M, under $5M), a majority of lenders (ranging from 60% to 100%) plan to maintain their current loan structure, a stark switch from the prior quarter where 60% of lenders planned to tighten their loan structure across all ranges. This idea is cemented by 83% of surveyed lenders believing there will be an interest rate decrease in the upcoming six months (the other 17% believe the Fed will make no change to interest rates in the next six months).

Lender optimism in the US economy increased slightly in the near term from 1.91 in Q1 2024 to 2.00. There is an even split amongst lenders for B, C, and D-level performances. More telling, lender expectations for the US economy's performance in the longer term decreased significantly from 2.55 to 1.83. Of the lenders surveyed, 83% believe the US economy will perform at a "C" level during the next twelve months, an increase of 54 percentage points from the prior quarter.

"Lenders have adjusted their expectation for interest rate reductions. The continued delays have heightened their concern regarding the economy and have resulted in increased pessimism regarding long-term economic outlook," says Michael Jacoby, Senior Managing Director of Phoenix Management, a part of J.S. Held. "Everything hinges on interest rate cuts – refinancing, M&A activity, and, of course, the crashing commercial real estate market. As C&I lending opportunities stagnate, we see lenders getting a bit more aggressive to maintain and attract loan assets, as evidenced by the shift in Q2 from tightening loan structures to maintaining loan structures." Jacoby continues, "The Q2 survey revealed that all lenders identified the retail, restaurant, and hospitality industries as the most likely to experience volatility in the next six months. The overwhelming majority identified real estate as a close follower. We expect continued volatility and choppiness in borrower performance and lender outlook until the Fed begins reducing rates and the outcome of the 2024 presidential election is decided."

Learn more about the dedicated and entrepreneurial experts who help transform J.S. Held, explore our story, and celebrate this momentous milestone, our 50 & Forward celebration, with us at jsheld.com.

About Phoenix Management, a part of J.S. Held

For over 35 years, Phoenix has provided smarter, operationally focused solutions for middle-market companies in transition.

Phoenix Management Services® provides turnaround, crisis and interim management, and specialized advisory for both distressed and growth-oriented companies. Phoenix Investor Services® provides quality of earnings, operational diligence, Quality of Enterprise®, business integration, sell-side business preparation, and other transaction-related support. Phoenix IB® provides seamless investment banking solutions including M&A advisory, complex restructurings, and capital placements.

As a part of J.S. Held, Phoenix works alongside more than 1,500 professionals globally and assists clients – corporations, insurers, law firms, governments, and institutional investors.

About J.S. Held

J.S. Held is a global consulting firm providing technical, scientific, financial, and strategic expertise across all assets and value at risk. Our professionals serve as trusted advisors to organizations facing high stakes matters demanding urgent attention, staunch integrity, proven experience, clear-cut analysis, and an understanding of both tangible and intangible assets. The firm provides a comprehensive suite of services, products, and data that enable clients to navigate complex, contentious, and often catastrophic situations.

More than 1,500 professionals serve organizations across six continents, including 81% of the Global 200 Law Firms, 70% of the Forbes Top 20 Insurance Companies (85% of the NAIC Top 50 Property & Casualty Insurers), and 65% of the Fortune 100 Companies.

J.S. Held, its affiliates and subsidiaries are not certified public accounting firm(s) and do not provide audit, attest, or any other public accounting services. J.S. Held, its affiliates and subsidiaries are not law firms and do not provide legal advice. Securities offered through PM Securities, LLC, d/b/a Phoenix IB, a part of J.S. Held, member FINRA/ SIPC or Ocean Tomo Investment Group, LLC, a part of J.S. Held, member FINRA/ SIPC. All rights reserved.

Media Contact

Kristi L Stathis, J.S. Held, +1 786 833 4864, Kristi.Stathis@jsheld.com, JSHeld.com

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SOURCE J.S. Held