- The switch is coming: Many EV Skeptics will become Considerers
in the next three to five years.
- Consideration dips, even as EV demographics shift and become
more mainstream.
- Dealers and automakers are fostering a more balanced, strategic
relationship to accelerate EV adoption.
ATLANTA, May 14, 2024
/PRNewswire/ -- A second, significant wave of shoppers ready
to consider buying an electric vehicle (EV) is poised to begin
entering the market in the second half of the decade, according to
the latest findings from the 2024 Path to EV Adoption Study by Cox
Automotive. The findings indicate that nearly half of all vehicle
shoppers in market today are not even considering an EV – a
group the study identifies as Skeptics, shoppers who are
only considering vehicles powered by traditional internal
combustion engines.
Many EV Skeptics will become Considerers in
the next three to five years.
But the Skeptics are coming, the study suggests. As technology
improves, the U.S. charging network expands and prices moderate
further, 54% of current Skeptics will become EV Considerers
within three to five years. Within the next ten years, 80% of
today's Skeptics will be ready to consider an EV as more barriers
fall.
Last year, EV sales in the U.S. market surpassed 1 million
units for the first time, according to sales estimates by
Kelley Blue Book, a Cox Automotive
brand. Sales growth continues, albeit slowly, and electric vehicle
prices continue to decline, thanks mostly to higher incentives and
drastic price cuts by market leader Tesla. Still, EV consideration
has waned in the U.S. after peaking in 2022. The latest study from
Cox Automotive suggests the recent drop in consideration and
slowing of EV sales growth is likely a shift in market dynamics as
EV sales enter a new phase of development.
"While we've seen EV sales growth slow and consideration
dip, we believe this is part of a normal growth curve and not the
end of the story," said Isabelle
Helms, vice president of Research and Market Intelligence at
Cox Automotive. "We remain bullish on the long-term future of EV
sales in America, as many Skeptics today will be carefully
considering an EV by the end of the decade. With more
infrastructure, education and technological innovation
and improvements, we believe electric vehicle sales will
continue to grow in the long term."
Key findings from the 2024 Path to EV Adoption Study by Cox
Automotive include:
EV Skeptics – The Next Wave Is Coming
The Cox
Automotive 2024 Path to EV Adoption Study suggests a second wave of
EV Considerers is preparing to enter the market. The study projects
EV consideration will notably increase in three to five years, with
54% of current Skeptics expected to become active EV Considerers.
Within 10 years, 80% of today's Skeptics will have become EV
Considerers. By that time, most vehicle shoppers – looking at both
new and used vehicles – will be actively considering an electric
vehicle.
As Skeptics slowly become Considerers, overall EV consideration
in the U.S. is forecast to increase dramatically. Currently, only
45% of consumers in market for a vehicle within the next 12 months
say they are considering an EV, down from last year when 51% of
in-market shoppers were looking at EV options. In the 2026-to-2028
timeframe, research suggests that 79% of vehicle shoppers (both new
and used) will be considering an electric vehicle. By 2033, 90% of
all vehicle shoppers will have electric vehicles on their
lists.
The expected shift is being driven largely by expectations for
significant technological advancements and a notable improvement in
the available EV charging infrastructure. Many current-market
Skeptics are waiting for better range, longer battery life,
improved reliability and overall technological advancements.
Current-day Considerers often note "price" as the top barrier
holding them back from purchase. On the other hand, Skeptics
consider the "lack of charging stations" the top barrier.
Demographics Shift as EVs Become More
Mainstream
The new research from Cox Automotive also
suggests that the EV market is slowly becoming more mainstream.
While current EV ownership is heavily tilted toward luxury and
high-earning households, the study shows the EV market is casting a
wider net, attracting Gen Z, multicultural and less-affluent
shoppers. The market is also seeing a notable uptick in used EV
consideration. In 2021, 62% of EV Considerers were looking at used
EVs. Today, 77% are considering used electric vehicles.
While Tesla continues to be far and away the most considered EV
maker, many mainstream brands are making inroads. The new report
shows that electric vehicles from Toyota, Hyundai and Kia have
experienced notable increases in awareness and consideration since
2021. Meanwhile, Ford continues to be the most-considered EV maker
not named Tesla. Still, apart from Tesla, a majority of vehicle
shoppers are not even aware of EV offerings from other major
automakers, the Cox Automotive study reveals, suggesting many
shoppers are not researching EV products. For example, only 33% of
vehicle shoppers – consumers in market for a product – have
awareness of EV offerings from Nissan, a brand that helped pioneer
EV sales in the U.S. market.
A More Balanced Partnership Between Dealers
and Automakers
The new study from Cox Automotive also
documents the improving relationship between dealers and automakers
when it comes to selling and servicing EVs, a partnership that has
become more strategic and balanced since 2019.
Dealerships report that they have enjoyed increased support in
marketing, sales and service since 2019 but express a need for
additional resources beyond training in selling EVs. More EV
incentives are high on their list, as are programs like free
maintenance and funds for additional advertising. Dealers also feel
the urgency to sell: 65% of dealers report feeling pressure from
their automakers to hit EV sales targets, up from 39% in 2019.
Luxury dealers are more likely to feel higher pressure.
Still, the research also demonstrates the level of commitment
that dealers have to selling EVs. Among franchised dealers,
86% say they are likely or somewhat likely to continue making
investments required by the automakers. With this commitment to
continue investing in EV infrastructure, dealers are signaling a
collaborative effort to accelerate EV adoption.
Background and Methodology
The 2024 Path to EV
Adoption Study by Cox Automotive assessed the current landscape and
prospects of electric vehicle (EV) adoption in the United States. The research was undertaken
in Q1 2024 and included a nationally representative sample of 2,557
American vehicle shoppers and 526 dealers to understand their
perceptions, preferences, and attitudes toward electric vehicles.
The methodology was structured to capture a broad spectrum of
demographic variables, including age, income, geographic location,
and current vehicle ownership, to ensure the findings accurately
reflect the diverse landscape of the American consumer base.
Learn More
The findings from the 2024 Path to EV
Adoption Study provide a comprehensive overview of the current
state and future trajectory of EV adoption, offering valuable
insights for consumers, dealers, and automakers alike as they
navigate the transition toward a more sustainable automotive
ecosystem. Download the study summary and an infographic.
About Cox Automotive
Cox Automotive is the world's
largest automotive services and technology provider. Fueled by the
largest breadth of first-party data fed by 2.3 billion online
interactions a year, Cox Automotive tailors leading solutions for
car shoppers, auto manufacturers, dealers, lenders and fleets.
The company has 29,000+ employees on five continents and a
portfolio of industry-leading brands that include
Autotrader®, Kelley Blue
Book®, Manheim®, vAuto®,
Dealertrack®, NextGear Capital™,
CentralDispatch® and FleetNet America®. Cox
Automotive is a subsidiary of Cox Enterprises Inc., a privately
owned, Atlanta-based company with
$22 billion in annual revenue. Visit coxautoinc.com or
connect via @CoxAutomotive on X, CoxAutoInc on
Facebook or Cox-Automotive-Inc on LinkedIn.
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SOURCE Cox Automotive