Agriculture Markets Hit By Good Harvests, Poor Technicals - Credit Suisse
2011年12月6日 - 11:32PM
Dow Jones News
The outlook for agriculture markets has deteriorated, Credit
Suisse said Tuesday, as harvests have come in better than expected
and long-term technical trends have turned negative in many
markets.
Analysts at the Swiss bank warned they had a negative outlook
for most prices as agricultural markets do not yet provide good
value, while the environment looks set to remain challenging given
sluggish growth, persistent funding stress, and deleveraging
pressure.
For grains, Credit Suisse said corn's strong over valuation and
neutral technicals continue to point to lower prices, despite
positive short-term fundamentals in a tight market.
The bank's analysts said corn prices need to fall below $5.00 a
bushel to trade at fair levels, but revealed a $5.70/bushel 3-month
forecast and $5.40/bushel 12-month forecast, due to positive
cyclical support.
Credit Suisse said its wheat outlook is now negative due to
bearish technicals, neutral fundamentals and an undemanding
valuation.
The bank's analysts said momentum is weak with wheat prices
having failed to reach new highs since February, and the long-term
trend now downward sloping.
For softs, Credit Suisse said there are still substantial
downside risks in the coffee market, as it's probably one of the
most cyclical of all agricultural commodities.
With economic growth in Europe slowing and coffee being
significantly over priced, the bank's analysts said value is the
dominating factor, making their 12-month outlook negative.
Credit Suisse said the focus is on cocoa's technical analysis
because of neutral valuation and fundamentals, but the trend has
broken to the downside and momentum is deeply negative.
This leaves the bank with a negative outlook for cocoa, with
very few signs of consolidation before the technical situation can
start to improve again.
However, Credit Suisse said that sugar should be more stable
than other agricultural markets given its neutral trend and
valuation.
Despite the global sugar market heading towards a large surplus
this year, capping upside from current levels, the bank said that
such an over-supply is needed as inventories are at multi-year
lows.
Credit Suisse said that prices are likely to remain within the
21 to 25 cents/lb price range.
-By Michael Haddon, Dow Jones Newswires; 4420-7842-9289;
michael.haddon@dowjones.com