Mexican media group Grupo Televisa SAB (TV) is expected to report a 7% drop in fourth-quarter net profit as higher taxes offset gains in sales and operating profits.

Televisa will likely report net profit of 2.66 billion pesos ($181 million), or MXN0.92 per local CPO share, down from MXN2.84 billion, or MXN1.01 per share, in the fourth quarter of 2007, according to the median estimate in a Dow Jones Newswires survey of eight analysts.

"In terms of net profit, we expect a drop of 21% due to greater tax provisions as well as non-cash foreign exchange losses," Vector Casa de Bolsa said in a report. Vector had the most pessimistic estimate for net profit in the survey, at MXN2.25 billion.

Sales probably grew 14% to MXN14.11 billion thanks to the acquisitions of cable TV firm Cablemas SA.

Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda, a measure of cash flow, probably rose 19% to MXN5.50 billion, while operating income likely grew 2.5% to MXN4.72 billion.

Televisa is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter report Thursday after the close of the stock market.

"Along with the results, we expect focus to be on 2009 upfront sales, announced together with 4Q08 results," Credit Suisse said in a note.

Television advertising sales are expected to fall this year as Mexico's economy joins the U.S. in a recession. The Bank of Mexico has forecast an economic contraction of between 0.8% and 1.8% during 2009.

"We believe that upfront sales of around MXN15.8 billion - 3% lower than the previous year - may still provide support for the MXN22.1 billion [TV broadcasting sales] guidance that we deem likely to be disclosed," Santander analyst Gregorio Tomassi said in a note.

Televisa, Mexico's No. 1 broadcaster and the largest producer of Spanish-language content in the world, has diversified its business and geographic mix in recent years to reduce its dependence on domestic broadcast television revenue, which accounted for nearly half of sales last year.

Televisa is one of the largest cable TV operators in Mexico with stakes in Mexico City-based Empresas Cablevision SAB (CABLE.MX), Monterrey-based TVI, and now Cablemas, which offer phone, broadband and pay-TV services to consumers.

The group has also grown its international operations by acquiring Argentine magazine publisher Editorial Atlantida SA in 2007, and expanding coverage of its Sky satellite TV unit to Central America.

Sky, which accounted for nearly 20% of Televisa's revenue in the first nine months of 2008, faces growing competition in its home market from start-up satellite TV provider Dish Mexico, a joint venture between MVS Comunicaciones and EchoStar Corporation (SATS) that has a billing and distribution agreement with Mexico's No. 1 fixed-line phone company Telefonos de Mexico SAB (TMX).

BBVA Bancomer telecommunications and media analyst Andres Coello said in a report that Sky has started to offer more aggressive promotions to new subscribers than it did in the past.

"This increase in discounts could reflect the price pressure that the Dish-Telmex alliance is creating," Coello wrote.

Televisa's CPO shares were recently up 0.4% at MXN35.87. As of Friday, the shares had lost 13% this year, compared to a drop of 18% in the benchmark IPC stock index.

-By Ken Parks, Dow Jones Newswires, 52-55-5001-5723; ken.parks@dowjones.com