Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (QB) (FMCCJ)

Agreed !
They have changed their tune from release to maybe to No rush. So what's it going to be next month? I think they are either building a master plan for the SWF or its a release as DJT walks out the door and a big win for all that donated and his buddies. This will be a big win for shareholders if that happens

Toying with azz is right.

Dont give Trump any ideas - UST could negotiate a deal with the FHFA regarding the SPS and Fannie and Freddie could contribute the amount of stock that would have been given UST in a SPS cramdown to Trump accounts. Probably a real political winner?

@POTUS @DirectorPulte @SecScottBessent @BillAckman @michaeljburry

I'll donate 1% of my FNMA & FMCC holdings to the Trump A/cs if Treasury:

1. Writes down the SPS to zero.
2. Cancels the warrants.
3. Joins FHFA in ending the ridiculous TEMPORARY conservatorship.— Guido da Costa Pereira (@GuidoPerei) July 2, 2026

Enough BS, this needs to higher. 

No Rush !

"They also want to give a "chunk" to their banker buddies."

The government has already done that ONCE many years ago. Remember when the FHFA sued all the lenders for sending them toxic mortgages, then settled, literally, for pennies on the dollar? All of those mortgages were toxic! Cost FNMA and FMCC billions and billions!

There are people somewhere laughing at all of us daily for being on the Freddie Mac - No Politics Message Board. Why, you might ask? Because POLITICS is what has been trying to kill us for going on 18 years and yet here we are!
Gluttons for punishment and constant disappointment, I suppose.
There's not 5¢ difference between Trump, Biden, Obama and Bush as well as all their appointed Secretaries of the Treasury.. All of them are capos in a criminal enterprise. They killed the white knight that could have saved the day back in 2008. We will be screwed over by this government. We just don't know to what extent.

This administration wants to celebrate 250 years of freedom they can start by freeing Fannie and Freddie from 18 years of tyranny. Show America you can gain your freedom once you pay the fine and do your time.

Housing is a big yawn - President Trump ... that pretty much sums up how he feels ... still hasn't signed the housing bill because he's pissed at Congress for not being able to pass the Save America Act ... I want it too, but this is pathetic and illustrative of one of Trump's lesser qualities: he's vindictive and petty ... in the month that's left before the August recess it's highly unlikely Luna's new bill or any other passage of a Save America Act is in the cards ...

I don't know if Luna is fully educated on reconciliation bills, but she stated the Byrd Rule would pretty much kill any chance of the Save Act getting added to a reconciliation bill, and my belief which is fact - that a reconciliation bill could be used for the Treasury to "forgive" any portion of the GSE outstanding bill according to fake c'ship - is highly unlikely for Trump to fight for or be added in the reconciliation bill either ...

We are currently at the mercy of an appeals court which is in no hurry to make a decision ... complicated decisions like these with high dollar amounts at stake run closer to 6 months to return - some have take up to a year - they usually spend the Summer months writing their opinions, and if they are like the rest of normal humans, Summer means relaxation ... my guess is that all the advisors around Trump are telling him he has all the time in world to make a decision thus the "it's not a rush" bullshit he pumped out last month ...

Bottom line: fuck these guys, all the talk about the Constitution, Liberty, and communism is political campaign nonsense for the midterms ... they'll steal every shareholder dollar they can get away with and split it amongst themselves and the tech, crypto, and AI investments Trump is making billions off of ... he has fully lost my support

F2 and Crypto they have crushed !

I don't think his call was bad, the failure is on the part of the administration to take action. The gubnit could have banked their $30 billion, the shares could be trading on the big board for $35-$60, the SPS could be retired, and the gubnit could be sitting on the other 70% of the equity. It's possible they are trying to figure a way to steal more than the 80% and keep the share price high. They also want to give a "chunk" to their banker buddies.

Once you are a made man or woman in the DC syndicate you are immune from prosecution. Look at all the criminals over the years, have any of them gone to jail? Only their political enemies have gone to jail. I don't need to name the names but the list is long. So, do not get your hopes up any of the criminals will go to jail. Look at the conservatorship, it's the crime of the century and nothing gets done, going on 18 years. So, enjoy your families, hobbies, and life in general and don't expect too much from your gubnit.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/americas-housing-market-run-out-something-more-important-than-homes

Anyone want to bet Tulsi already had the "declasifying pile" ready for Pulte, hence the temporary assignment to clean house and declasify. Will the Obama docs be in that pile? We can press on with our social media calling out campaign to get true justice and to stop the communistic anti-capitalist crap going on. Maybe Trump knows no one has a spine to do what's right and he knows Pulte is righteous, and a good attack dog? He did clean things up at F2, and yes he waits long because he's a soldier for Trump and does not move unless ordered to. I am not sticking up for any of this or anyone, just my honest observations. Maybe our birthday celebrating our freedom will truly mean something. It takes a master tactician to navigate the swampy dysfunction and criminal environment in DC.

Germany Crushed yet again, can we just stay at 1 time? Ackman made a stupidly terrible call, what’s new!

Hi Neo, - I dont think I missed the point - we both are making a LOT of assumptions and you most important assumption is that common shareholders will not suffer dilution of any type - warrants - SPS - JPS Conversion. You get a valuation of $ 221 a share for FNMA and an implied valuation of FMCC of around $300 per share ( assuming the same 16 PE).
I am expecting 90% dilution and you are expecting 0% dilution - my guestimate is FNMA in the $ 25 range and FMCC in the $ 35 range.
Lets see has it most correct in the end? Hopefully we will get the ERCF relief soon and then see how the Fairholme/Lamberth Decision works out and refine our estimates after that.

You CLEARLY missed the point of that valuation illustration. That would be the values absent conservatorship, NO DILUTION, and NO egregious capital standards, or under the condition they already meet their full required capital - give or take a slightly different multiple based on the actual specifics of each company and the prevailing market conditions. This is the method used under normal market circumstances. Furthermore, this is NOT "my" methodology; it IS THE METHODOLOGY OF FINANCIAL ANALYSTS marketwide since for time immemorial (at least for mature stocks which F2 are). You just seem simply too incapable of understanding the financial, valuation, and market nuances underlying the simple mathematcis of these valuation methodologies to have a clear discussion. Or, as it seems clearly to me, you are married to an outcome that you want to continue defending for your own intellectual pride. ALL valuation has to have a solid basis in the actual earnings that can be paid to an investor and other associated market realities.

The illustration was meant to show how much room there is for the government to make money, as well as shareholders without all of the many complicating factors (legal, political, logistical, and administrative, significant financial discount incentive to investors, JPS conversion complications) that go along with executing the full warrants. Dilute each company 5, 10, or 15% and redo the calc to get a more realistic value of what each shareholder would make under the conditions of that dilution. But those prices would only be reached under the condition of proper ECRF capital requirement, being fully capitalized, and the government COMPLETELY relinquishing ALL OTHER CLAIMS.

Each of those other calcuations would give a fair estimate under the conditions mentioned above for each equity price and still make the jps full stated value.

Thanks Neo - based on your methodology - For FMCC - can I assume $12.5 bn in earnings divided by 650 million shares with a 16 multiple - about $ 307 per share? Hope you are right!!! - $ 307 on common and $ 25 on JPS!! - best possible outcome. I am basically assuming common will be 10% of your number- in the $ 30 range- which is interesting since I am assuming common will end up with 10% of the equity rather than your assumption of 110%.

Trillion, 10X, tired of winning ?

@DNIPulte

If you release the files regarding @FannieMae & @FreddieMac that @POTUS44 is hiding behind EXECUTIVE PRIVILEGE, I'll stop calling you TOO LATE & DO NOTHING. https://t.co/vzINtEFrUr— Guido da Costa Pereira (@GuidoPerei) July 1, 2026

To answer your question, I don't know. It wouldn't surprise me because of the POOR performance all that money bought by the plaintiffs! They got screwed, for sure.

One can never underestimate the government's capacity (and their corporate welfare recipients) for greed, hubris, or market disrupting action; however, I believe there is a zero percent chance that the warrants are executed in full mainly due to two things:

1. It creates a de facto takings, all the courts know it and would have no constitutional basis on which to deny it
- winning it and how much can be won are beside the point; it creates a justiciable event that RISKS tying up GSEs/housing beyond any administration's ability to control their full use for more time than they likely see as comfortable

2. the logistics and financial realities associated with trying to sell the massive amount of shares into a market that realizes the entities they will buy into are massively diluted, have very low capacity for paying dividends, are still for all practical purposes under government control with NO real prospects of the kind of growth required to compete in the market for other investments - this requires a 20-30-50% discount to entice investors to buy those shares ... they would be trying to sell more than four times as many shares as they sold in AIG which took 6 different rounds to sell over nearly a two year period. Finally, the proceeds will do NOTHING to move the needle on a single year budget deficit and certainly less than NOTHING, ZERO, NADA with regard to the national deficit. Also, a takings case could force them to give up a significant portion of the proceeds.

Full execution of the warrants, in my opinion, has no chance of any real financial feasibility or success, but as I said, it's not that foolish bureaucrats will not attempt it, but there must be at least one adult in the room with solid financial reality experience.

For Fannie, at an average of roughly $16B dollars in net earnings over the past 10 years with current shares of 1.158B and a financial industry multiplier average of players in their class of 16 we have an undiluted share price of:

[$16B/1.158B] x16 = $221/share

Again, this is TOTALLY UNDILUTED no warrant or sps dilution, and JUST FOR FANNIE. Think about adding Freddie into the mix. This clearly shows there is plenty of room for both the government to make some money and shareholders to be richly and justly reward without having to fully execute those warrants (or cramdown from SPS). This is further supported and even magnified by a proper risk-based ECRF cap requirements commensurate with the GSEs line of business.

In my opinion there is no reason other than greed (government or other industry players), or power hungry control freaks that we cannot see the junior preferred receive full stated value and both equities return to their pre-c'ship levels almost immediately after the solution is defined and put into motion with both sets of securities rising all along the way to those values.

It seems certain they are waiting on the appeals decision (although this is only faux-necessary) the numbers at stake are less than one percent of the GSE's net worth in total. But some kind of remand to lower courts for additional damages could be the decisive factor in the government being prodded to move quickly to the solution that delivers the outcome I speak of above.

But the ugly caveat is that Trump digs in when he feels forced, the other industry players as well. There is a risk they ALL dig in, especially if there is a remand to the lower courts for further damages - they might just let that playout or even appeal to SCOTUS. In that case we could take another two years. An ugly thought indeed.

the wider swing on relatively lower volume are clear indications of an at least temporary short supply of available shares ... which may indicate a general belief something changing the outlook landscape ... word of proposal to change ECRF; end of quarter news from the companies coming; word of the appeals decision = these are the most proximate events

I do NOT think we will hear ANYTHING substantive on these for at least a full month, but holding tight for a month is certainly smart with the aforementioned events on the horizon ...

Declassify whatever you want: 🚨 JUST IN: President Trump has told Acting Director of National Intelligence Bill Pulte to DECLASSIFY anything he wants

🔥🔥🔥

"Bill Pulte is there, I said, 'you can declassify WHATEVER YOU WANT!'"

"I told him — you can do it as fast [as possible]!"

"I think Bill will… pic.twitter.com/3nwo4FX8Xi— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) July 1, 2026

Symbol
FMCC
Pre-Market
$6.15
+$0.17 (+2.76%) Time (ET)
08:05:20 AM

Germany lost 16 cents ! Trumps game is ova !

Birth Right Citizenship Amendment first, then Fannie and Freddie.

Just kidding. I sincerely hope the First Family is busy buying FNMA & FMCC. Otherwise, I fear it won't get done because of that damn James Watt. Still kidding. DO NOTHINGS always have excuses. But, I don't think Watt can be blamed this time.

Yes - that would be great for me and that is why I own commons. I have thought it was clear cut that commons would do much better but the price action does give me concern.
A big determinant will be any changes in the ERCF Reg Capital requirements and of course a SPS Conversion.
I would love to see FMCC in the $ 60 range and JPS paid at Stated Value - however just thinking about what John Paulson may want and he may convince Trump to sweeten the pot for JPS and that is why I also own JPS.

Thanks for the reply Neo

I am assuming a $ 500 bn valuation based on $ 25 bn in annual earnings just to start - Bessent has said he thought F2 was in that range. Just keeping it simple since this is all speculation as you suggest.
- Next, I am assuming the SPS gets written down to the original $ 1 bn each and not making any extra dilution adjustments but just holding the US Treasury stake constant at 80% ( I know it is 79.9 but just to simplify)
-Next, I assume the UST does not exercise any warrants until the balance sheet is finalized and I am assuming all FNMA and FMCC need is the addition of the JPS Equity converted to CET1 Common.
-Just to simplify and assuming Trump looks at this in basic terms - the common should have a greater price increase than the JPS but basically both groups of shareholders got screwed so basically back into a scenario where the UST owns 80% and protects itself by the timing of the exercise of the warrants and the Common and JPS split the remaining 20%.
-So - going back to the $ 500 bn F2 valuation - split the estimated MV 275 FNMA and 225 FMCC - just ball park but maybe elegantly simple
- Next I am assuming that after the Fairholme Decision there will be some negotiation where the JPS will negotiate favorable conversion rights
based on relative trading prices on a Series by Series basis or on Stated Value. Something like 250 trading day averages will be used.
- I assumed that another 650 million shares would be issued to the JPS and Common would retain 650 million shares - Treasury holds warrants with dilution protection until they exercise.
- 225 bn total MV - Common $ 22.5 bn - JPS $ 22.5 bn total with an additional 650 million shares issued.
- Your calculation is correct but I am now assuming that 1.3 bn will be held for 20% of the equity which equates to the doubling of fully diluted shares outstanding 1.3 bn common/JPS /.2 = 6.5 proforma fully diluted. $ 225/6.5 = $ 34.61 which is half of what the calculation would be based on current fully diluted shares.
- Very simple calculation based on the 50/50 principle and provides common with generally a 5X outcome and JPS a 4X outcome at current prices. Trump and Pulte have no reason to like Common shareholders based off consistent "nasty" comments and we know Paulson and some other JPS shareholders are loyal supporters. Hoping Ackman keeps it at least 50/50
- Just foolish speculation of course but elegantly simple with a semblance of fairness dont your think?

You mix match and conflate too many things to make any real logical sense with your thesis in general or your numbers in particular. Paragraphs are best devoted to explanation with the mathematics and financials clearly shown and supported separately with some actual historical data and financial or valuation calcuations.

Now, mind you, I know that you ARE intelligent. What I am knocking is your presentation and the inability to clearly support these vast generalizations about market cap, stock prices, etc.

Let's start here: All of your 80% this, 10% that, and another 10% here premise to this:
This would imply a potential FMCC price of approx $34 per share ( $ 22.5 bn/650 million shares) and would imply F2 would be worth approx $ 500 bn combined.
is just speculation, guesswork, we're all guessing, but it is guessing just the same and not really relevant, in fact, not supportive of the quoted statement.

Explain to me where you get the $22.5 bn and 650 million shares for FMCC (I know this is the current number of shares). In the past 12 years the highest net earnings figure for Freddie was $16.83 bn, seven of those years have been below $12 bn, and all other years have been in between. These are NOT guesses; they are actual reported figures, and there are no calculations in this explanation. It is just refuation of the use of $22.5 bn for the Freddie calc you make. They did have one $25 bn outlier in the past 15 years, as well as one almost $6 bn loss. Those should not be considered, anyway they are outside of the past 12 years.

Those figures are easy to find, add, and divide by 12 to get the average over the past 12 years, which would be the most sensible figure to use (=$11.995 bn). Finally, you use 650 million shares, but after full execution of the warrants that figure becomes:

[650 milliion]/(1 - .799) = 650/.201 = 3.233 BILLION SHARES.

So, just for starters, I do not understand the basis of your line: $34 per share ($22.5/650 million shares). I could be missing something, if so, point it out to me.

There could be some settlement for sure. Probably 5years of pref dividend and made full to the face value. That will be like a one time $12.50 dividend and appreciation to $25 face value.  Even so, commons will do so much better

"SCOTUS said in closing that you brought the WRONG CASE ! How does a top law firm bring the wrong case to SCOTUS. They explained it to them as well !"

As I said previously, you think you're getting $1000/hr. lawyers when in reality, you got 50¢/hour lawyers. You know, the one that got their Harvard degrees oit of a Cracker Jacks box. Shareholders needed Morgan & Morgan!

Hi Nats,

Regarding the JPS - I am thinking that there will be some type of exchange offer because (1) Paulson is still a very loyal friend and supporter and we have to think Trump will be fair or more than fair to JPS as he will be to John PaulSon(2) FMCC in particular needs CET1 ERCF Capital - even to pay dividends at all. FNMA less so and (3) my assumption is that Trump has not uplisted by now for a reason since he needs to uplist to even get close to $ 500 bn in value - so why not uplist? Maybe an exchange offer based on average trading prices?.

Yes my working assumption is $ 22.5/$ 13.9 because (1) it is a relative risk/reward 5X on common and 4X on JPS and (2) there has to be an incentive for JPS to convert.

JPS has been screwed as much as or more than common and have much nicer/civil shareholders - Pulte definitely has noticed and maybe Trump has also.

"to EVER be valued at $1 trillion"

Just more of Trump running his mouth about something he knows very little, if anything.

Same ole BS with the stock price. I wonder if, when, and why it all ends ehh

Like Hannity stated true journalism is gone!

We need Charles Payne to lay out the extent of the crime, make the public aware of how massive this Takings is. Sadly, he won't do it because like Maria the syndicate will cut them off, no more interviews, no more cash.

You raise a very good point. The lawyer may have been a plant. A case as blatant as this should have breezed through the court. If this is not a Takings there is no such thing.

We need a Wink from Charles Payne, Lmao !

just a fool's opinion which I am sure you will agree

FOFreddie - On the contrary, this is a very logical, well thought out possibility. Is it likely? Hard to tell as there is a universe of outcomes for this. But if I were handing out percentages of likelihood - this would be up there. There is no way that Trump is not exercising the warrants. But that still leaves a lot on the table if the SPS goes away (more accurate to say is considered paid in full - which it is).
If it plays out like you are proposing it may - wouldn't this be a 50% premium to par for Freddie ($22.5B for $14B) and Fannie JPS ($27.5B for 19B)?

Nats

I still have a theory that the Gov or the Federalists hired a half baked lawyer to present a losing case so the law would end up favouring the Gov. Think about how you can get your (Robbery) made legal so to keep the F-2 locked up forever as a CASH COW for the Gov!

SCOTUS said in closing that you brought the WRONG CASE ! How does a top law firm bring the wrong case to SCOTUS. They explained it to them as well !

It seems very fishy !! And why did SCOTUS take the case when it new it was the wrong case to present ? The only reason was to make law that the NWS was legal by the contract. ! BINGO GO !! GOV gets to keep all the $$$$ they stole !!

Nobody knows housing like Trump as PHM soars ! Can we maintain 1X Mr Ackman ?

Hi Neo,

My assumption is that FMCC will be trading with a market cap of $ 225 billion by the end of 2027. My assumption is that FNMA will trade with a $ 275 bn market cap. I am assuming that legacy common will end up with 10% of the equity and JPS will convert into common for the other 10%. I see no scenario that the UST does not end up with less than an 80% ownership and hopefully I am not too optimistic.
This would imply a potential FMCC price of approx $34 per share ( $ 22.5 bn/650 million shares) and would imply F2 would be worth approx $ 500 bn combined. It would be awesome if Trump is right about valuations reaching $ 1 Trillion because FMCC could be worth more than $ 60 in 2 to 5 years.
You probably totally disagree but I believe you are totally ignoring reality to assume that the UST does not end up with at least 80% of the equity of F2 - of course a SPS conversion could dilute us even more, but I am hopeful that the SPS will be written down. This is just pure speculation on my part, and I am sure you think the analysis is worthless, but this is the reason I own approximately 200k of FMCC and a whole lot of JPS - mostly FMCC.
I know I am a fool for owning F2 since 2008 and staying committed to the idea that it will be worth it. Trump in my opinion is our only hope and I believe those who publicly criticize his and Pulte's handling of F2 are most likely hurting our cause - probably another foolish idea but I have never seen Trump respond favorably to criticism.
Hoping for some good news regarding the ERCF by July 11th.
Of course - just a fool's opinion which I am sure you will agree.

Too Late Pulte got promoted to DO NOTHING Pulte.

He hasn't:

Revised ERCFs for Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac.
Ended CRT fraud.
Up listed them on NYSE.
Ended their TEMPORARY conservatorship.@POTUS @pulte @SecScottBessent @SecretaryTurner @howardlutnick @BillAckman @michaeljburry— Guido da Costa Pereira (@GuidoPerei) June 30, 2026

Temporary Indefinite, Patience, No Rush!