2latefortears
34分前
If you want Burry's raw data and analysis, subscribe to his Substack.
In summary, he published a deep dive today using SEC filings, 10-Qs, and ABS-15G repurchase disclosures that most investors never read. He found real deterioration in the multifamily book. Fannie's multifamily…— Hand of God (@TylerEHand) July 11, 2026
FOFreddie
14時間前
Here is the Reg Cap EO requirement :
In the Executive Order "Promoting Access to Mortgage Credit" (issued March 13, 2026), Section 4(c) requires the FHFA Director to submit a specific report.
The exact requirement is: Within 120 days of the date of the order, the Director of the FHFA (in consultation with heads of other relevant executive departments and agencies) must submit a report to the Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and the Director of the Office of Management and Budget.
This means the report will be delivered to Kevin Hasset and Russ Voight.
The report must cover:The efficiency of national housing finance markets.
Recommendations for regulatory or legislative changes necessary to address any identified regulatory or oversight gaps.
This provision appears in the EO’s “Capital and Liquidity Alignment” section (Section 4), which also directs FHFA and other regulators (Federal Reserve, FDIC, OCC, NCUA) to consider revising capital regulations. This includes tailoring risk weights for portfolio mortgages, mortgage-servicing rights, and warehouse lines of credit to better reflect material credit risk (with tailored standards for community and smaller banks).
The EO aims to reduce regulatory burdens, promote mortgage credit access (especially for smaller lenders), and improve housing finance market efficiency overall. The 120-day report deadline would have been around mid-July 2026.
2latefortears
16時間前
Washington Goes To Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac
The Ugly, the Bad & the Good that Investors Need to Know
Michael Burry
Jul 10, 2026
· Paid
The GSEs’ investors have seen enough unfulfilled grand promises over enough years to try the patience of Job.
Since President Trump’s election to a second term, the shares of both GSEs have marched upward toward the mid-teens and then fallen dramatically to the mid-single digits.
Amidst the ups and downs, one truth remains. By far the largest driver of value of the shares stems neither from an IPO nor from an exchange listing.
Shareholders’ Sisyphean saga comes down to the Senior Preferred Stock (SPS) Liquidation Preference (LP), which grows largely in line with the Twins’ retained earnings.
For now, Fannie and Freddie retain those earnings and keep that capital.
Fannie and Freddie as enterprises benefit from improved capital position, but common shareholders do not see it and today have no claim to it.
The Twins have paid far more to the Treasury than was ever provided to them, but if the SPS LP is affirmed by Treasury, the Twins’ stocks will fall straight to the low single digits.
If the SPS LP is instead deemed to have been paid off, then all those retained earnings indeed belong to the Twins.
The stocks would then run straight up, perhaps 3-4 times today’s price.
I am fairly confident that clarification on the SPS will precede the IPO, as marketing for the IPO likely cannot proceed without such.
Freddie Mac’s event map looks almost exactly the same as Fannie’s, above, with the very same events. The shares remain up hundreds of percent since before Trump’s election.
The stair step up and stair step back down appears to be a prototypical head and shoulders pattern, typically a reflection of investors’ tortured psychology and relatively agnostic as to underlying business fundamentals.
The map nevertheless suggests the stock moved in line with a number of fundamental news items. That is, to the extent hopes, dreams and disappointments count as news.
Believe it or not, this is the ugly. The ugly truth is that the end result is in the Trump Administration’s hands.
https://michaeljburry.substack.com/p/washington-goes-to-fannie-mae-and?r=6eik8l&utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=post%2Bviewer&triedRedirect=true
NeoSunTzu
20時間前
Interesting news today ... WSJ put out a story that Sullivan & Cromwell, yes, those same rat bastards that were supposed to be working on the F2 case for the government, would not help Trump in his E Jean Carroll defamation case which caused a riff between firm partners. Dollars to donuts says, given their history in defending banks in the FHFA cases brought to get payback for the bad mortgages the off-loaded to the GSEs, these guys are gumming up the works in every way they can ...
NeoSunTzu
2日前
Not that there has been any "official" discussion of the TXSE as a listing venue for F2, but the TXSE is NOT adding any "new" corporate listings to their exchange, like F2, until Q4. Obviously, the smart move is NYSE re-listing first (anytime before Q4), then dual listing on TXSE in Q4.
Here is the timeline TXSE is putting out:
The Dallas-based exchange is using a phased rollout over the course of July:
Test Securities: Trading of test securities officially kicked off.
Live Public Trading: The exchange is scheduled to introduce its first set of designated live securities on Friday, July 10.
Full Rollout: Additional symbols and equities will be phased in, with the goal of going fully live with all National Market System symbols by July 31.
Corporate Listings: The Member Readiness & Launch Guide details that Exchange-Trade Products are slated to launch in Q3 2026, followed by the first corporate listings in Q4 2026.
FOFreddie
3日前
The Public is not likely to see the full text of the Reg Capital Report but there should be some public acknowledgement that the Report was completed. Here is what Grok said on the likely information flow:
Yes, I can access details on it. It's the Executive Order titled "Promoting Access to Mortgage Credit" (EO 14393), signed by President Trump on March 13, 2026.
whitehouse.gov
Key Relevant Provision Section 4(c) states: Within 120 days of the date of this order, the Director of the FHFA, in consultation with the heads of other relevant executive departments and agencies, shall submit a report to the Assistant to the President for Economic Policy and the Director of the Office of Management and Budget on the efficiency of national housing finance markets. The report shall identify recommendations for regulatory or legislative changes necessary to address any regulatory or oversight gaps.
whitehouse.gov
This is part of a broader section on Capital and Liquidity Alignment, which also directs FHFA (along with other regulators like the Federal Reserve, FDIC, OCC, and NCUA) to consider revising capital regulations. The goal is to better tailor risk weights for portfolio mortgages, mortgage servicing rights, and warehouse lines of credit to reflect actual credit risk—especially for community and smaller banks.
whitehouse.gov
Context The EO aims to reduce regulatory burdens on mortgage lending to improve access to credit and housing affordability. It covers related topics like Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) initiatives and other mortgage market reforms.
mayerbrown.com
The 120-day deadline for the FHFA report would be around mid-July 2026 (roughly July 11–12, depending on exact counting). As of now (early July), the report hasn't been issued yet based on available public information, but agencies are actively working on related capital and regulatory reviews.
icba.org
You can read the full text directly on the White House site: Promoting Access to Mortgage Credit. Let me know if you'd like more details, analysis of related provisions, or updates on the report!
3 web pages
Analyze FHFA capital proposal impacts
Explore FHLB reform provisions
Will the public see this report or know that it has been submitted
Thought for 3s
Likely yes for awareness of submission, and probably yes (at least in part) for the content itself, but not guaranteed to be immediately or fully public .How These Reports Typically Work The EO requires the FHFA Director to submit the report internally to the White House (Assistant to the President for Economic Policy) and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). It does not explicitly require public release.
whitehouse.gov
Many similar agency reports under executive orders are not automatically posted online upon submission. They are treated as internal advice to the President/White House.
What the Public Usually Sees Announcement of submission — The White House, FHFA, or OMB often issues a press release, fact sheet, or statement when a major report is delivered (especially on high-profile topics like housing finance). Industry groups, media, and stakeholders closely watch this deadline (mid-July 2026), so coverage is expected.
Full or partial release — FHFA frequently publishes reports, studies, or summaries on its website (fhfa.gov) when they relate to its regulatory mission.
If the report recommends regulatory changes, those often lead to public notices, proposed rules in the Federal Register, or requests for comment — making key findings visible.
The report (or large portions) could become available later via the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA), as it is an agency record. FHFA has a FOIA process, though responses can take time and may involve redactions for deliberative material or sensitive recommendations.
pylonlending.com
Precedents for this EO and similar ones show that related materials (e.g., stakeholder letters urging action on the report) are already public, and the report itself is widely anticipated in housing finance circles.
seekingalpha.com
Current Status (as of July 8, 2026)No public confirmation of submission or release has appeared yet — the ~120-day deadline falls around July 11–12. Watch for updates from: White House website / press briefings
FHFA.gov (newsroom or reports section)
Major housing/finance news outlets
Bottom line: The public will almost certainly know it was submitted (via announcements or news), and substantive parts or a summary are very likely to become public soon after, either proactively or through standard channels. If the administration wants to build support for reforms (e.g., capital changes for GSEs or banks), they have strong incentive to highlight the findings.
Guido2
1週前
I'm writing this for benefit of those who weren't here from the start and think FnF situation is similar to AIG. It isn't. The court actually sided with Starr International and ruled that exercising the warrants was a TAKING. However, it awarded Starr $0 because without the government's help, AIG would have been bankrupt. According to their Regulator James Lockhart, FnF were well capitalized when the warrants were issued. Their conservatorship was described by President Bush as TEMPORARY to ensure liquidity in the secondary financial market. In other words, they were forced to buy bad mortgages being held by TBTF banks. I'll be in the forefront, if FnF warrants are exercised.
https://share.google/aimode/bgcnjNv8dAxXFSQwO
https://www.fhfa.gov/news/statement/statement-of-ofheo-director-james-b.-lockhart-in-support-of-secretary-paulson-administration-and-the
https://www.gata.org/node/6758
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2日前
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