Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (QB) (FMCC)

Ahhh ... sorry here too ... sarcasm is a tricky play without visual or audio assistance ... and I agree, T definitely wants a big headline out of the deal ... there are many ways to get this without an egregious further takings but most will be difficult to spin if he keeps sticking to the story about being able to sell them for much more than the $100B he turned down in his first admin - if he's stubborn enough to stick to that story he will need a BOOMING housing market more than double Fannie and Freddie earnings EACH than they had last year otherwise investors will NEVER pony up for shitty price appreciation and little to no dividends ... getting the housing bill passed would help, but F2 are a long way from the kind of earnings his valuation needs ...

The headline is how F&F was FRAUDULENTLY STOLEN from the shareholders - not how the current administration added to the financial rape. This administration can't be tough on fraud and participate in it. Even if it means doing nothing - that doesn't work. Do you allow a rapist to have their way with your daughter repeatedly because your friends and neighbors might find out and feel creepy about your ability to protect her?

In plain English - there is NO reason for this - it needs to end!

Sorry my half sarcasm didn't come through. I don't see current valuation at 1T. But I do see this administration not wanting to move forward unless they get a good headline out of it. So what is the scenario where they get that good headline showing how much money 'he' made for the USA? Without the government having the option with the warrants (which they can say = shares) and 'mark to market' to show the 'money made', how do they get that headline? This imo unrealistic number of 1T has also been said so many times, if Bessent and others in the admin admit that this isn't what it's going to be, they could just delay indefinitely because they don't want to 'only' show $300b or whatever it is and make what T has said in so many sound bites these last weeks, wrong.

Yes, Ackman is being a politician caving to the government.
He knows better, but he wants to get something going.
Worry about the details later.
IMO.

You're completely deluded if you think that $1 trillion figure bears any resemblance to reality. No market value model, given current net earnings and outstanding shares WITHOUT ANY dilution values them at more than a combined $375B. Market values of mature companies are ALWAYS based on the cash flows that can fall to shareholders and the price appreciation they can realize from the stock, the more shareholders there are the less cash that can flow to those shareholders. 9 billion shares does NOT increase the value of the companies, it only dilutes the limited earnings available. You are financailly illiterate if you think diluting something 80% makes it more valuable.

I still think Ackman knows warrants will be challenged and possibly lost in court

He doesn’t care

Dangling the carrot for the govt to do it

Get the party started and when warrants get nullified

Even a bigger boom

How will this administration get their 1trillion payday for the government if they don't take into account the warrants?

Ackman is doing dances on my last frayed nerve ... he repeats over and over and over this can be done by the end of the year - same thing he said last year ... and he repeats over and over and over the government owns 80%, execution of the warrants, and there is a lot of value within a decade ... all of this is completely caving to government ...

The value is here NOW, they do NOT own 80%, and he shouldn't be advocating for the execution of the warrants ... although his appearance do keep the conversation alive and going ...

More 1 million blocks going through on $FNMA $FMCC getting ready for an uplist? pic.twitter.com/kTTRvrcjNh— blue_eyes3532 (@blue_eyes3532) June 16, 2026

Brilliant messaging by Ackman on $FNMA and $FMCC
pic.twitter.com/CxX1huq62s— Nik Shah 💯× (@NikhaarShah) June 16, 2026

Treasury has made NO offers to F2 concerning their warrants ... their standard warrant agreements during/after the financial crisis applied ONLY to the other banking entities ...

Locked and loaded, the letter is drafted !

No movement in Germany, FLAT !

Hmmm sounds like the Warrants won't hit the open market as common shares but sold as warrants, ( new JPS) As part of the sale. That would get passed all the drama dealing with congress as all DJT is doing is selling the warrants not doing an IPO?? JUST A THOUGHT.

@POTUS @pulte @SecScottBessent @SecretaryTurner @howardlutnick @RepMeuser @RepYoungKim @BillAckman @michaeljburry

Seniors holding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac shares in their retirement accounts have been abused by our government the last 17+ years.https://t.co/2e5MPfUrMc— Guido da Costa Pereira (@GuidoPerei) June 15, 2026

So Ackman still has 15% of $5 billion cash to pump F2 with upon the first major announcement.

$FMCC~ $FNMA~
NOICE!

Ackman buying more …Nice to see you’re buying more $fnma $fmcc pic.twitter.com/4GWimtmUCL— Kong (@The1KenKong) June 15, 2026

70% to go !

There is nothing fair about exercising the warrants. If that is what you took from my reply to FoFreddie then you misread a great deal. I'm in total agreement that there is NOTHING fair about the warrants - especially as currently structured.

We still have a long way to go !

This is a very incoherent reply.
So, I will put you on ignore.

I am just hoping that the UST does not convert the SPS or if the JPS is converted and then the warrants are exercised.

USG has never even paid for the warrants.
There is nothing fair about exercising the warrants.

It is NOT unreasonable to base one's estimation of their own outcomes on the warrants being fully executed as that creates the most conservative estimate of what one can make out of their position.

That being said I think there is a ZERO percent chance of the warrants being FULLY executed under the current mathematical and financial conditions that exist. Read that carefully. That means, I believe IT IS NOT FINANCIALLY FEASIBLE to fully execute the warrants under the conditions of what they paid for them, including under the conditions that the $301B repaid still does not extinguish the $187.5 (or whatever the exact amount is) draws, and that a liquidation preference still exists as well. Because under ALL those conditions above NOBODY WILL TOUCH THESE STOCKS - they will be unable to sell a single share. First, because under these conditions that means they have NO CAPITAL to exit conservatorship. Second, they would have to so DEEPLY discount the shares that they would make almost nothing from the sale.

Now that we have set those conditions, I also believe it is HIGHLY UNLIKELY that even if the draws are considered fully paid off AND the liquidation preference is cancelled that they will be able to fully execute the warrants under the conditions of the price they paid for them. Here is why:

A fully diluted Fannie Mae will have 5.76B shares in total. Last year they earned $14.4B net profit. Tim Howard states at best the multiple for the GSEs is 15. This means a MAXIMUM share price of $37.5 under the p/e valuation model.

[$14.4B earnings / 5.76B shares] x 15 = [$2.5 earnings per share] x 15 = $37.5

Now think about these FACTS:
- After 18 years in conservatorship where the stock price was near $70 / share pre-crisis they will now try and float at best a $37 stock ?!!!!!!
- In order to entice investors looking at this Max price they will need to sell it for much less per share
- at 5.76 BILLION shares Fannie will only earn TWO DOLLARS and FIFTY CENTS per share?!!
-------- with a payout ratio AT BEST of 25% that means annual dividends would be 62.5 cents per share annually (they were paying over $2 pre-crisis); they will be unable to justify paying a higher ratio with so little earnings
-------- NO INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS will pay up for a highly diluted stock under constant govt scrutiny that only pays less than a dollar per share annually
- ALL of those court cases were decided under the banner of being in conservatorship; NONE were considered by judges outside of that framework
- There is NO statute of limitations on a 5th amendment takings clause case which WILL become ripe if the warrants are executed (likely only brought to the courts if the taking are egregious 50% or more.

Now, all that said I can see a multitude of scenarios where the warrants could possibly executed in large percentage; however, ONLY with large offsets in the other categories of financial considerations which keep them in c'ship ... the ONLY government exit is at the generosity of investors willing to purchase shares and for that, they must be financially incentivized.

actually its a trillion dollar company, but I agree. they are coming from the side of compromise, some or nothing, and many court cases have not strengthened anything better that 80/20

I do not know where you are coming from.
But there is nothing fair about taking 80% of billion-dollar companies for a measly $80000.
Good luck.

I held common and JPS when the warrant agreement was executed and I believed it was fair in the midst of the GFC. Knowing what I know now - I believe Paulson and his RINOS set Fannie and Freddie up to fail but no litigation has made it past a dismissal.
Today Fannie and Freddie would not exist without the implied full faith and credit of the US Treasury and Trump will exercise the warrants guaranteed. I am hoping for $ 20 to $ 60 on FMCC within 3 years.
At the time of the Conservatorship I was hoping for a $ 20 price - here is Grok's summary of trading the week before the Conservatorship - you will see that the market was expecting dilution going into the Conservatorship and the warrants were the dilution we received but more than what was expected:

Conservatorship for Freddie Mac (FMCC) was exercised on September 6, 2008 (with public announcement on September 7).

fhfa.gov +1

The relevant prior trading week covers September 2–5, 2008 (markets were closed on Labor Day, September 1). Adjusted historical daily prices from that period (splits and adjustments accounted for in sources) are:

finance.yahoo.com

Sep 5, 2008: Open $4.80, High $5.14, Low $4.65, Close $5.10
Sep 4, 2008: Open $5.33, High $5.49, Low $4.95, Close $4.95
Sep 3, 2008: Open $5.01, High $5.52, Low $4.80, Close $5.38
Sep 2, 2008: Open $5.20, High $5.23, Low $4.39, Close $5.18

Overall range that week: Low of ~$4.39 (intraday on Sep 2) to high of ~$5.52 (intraday on Sep 3). Closes ranged from $4.95 to $5.38.

Attaching a link to the warrant repurchase offer.

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/200962612255225533

I do not understand how you can still justify the 80% warrants?
It is a joke.

I've done a ton of research on all these aspects of the 2008 financial crisis bailouts, warrants, etc over the years and will have to dig some of that back up, but I wanted to respond quickly to the AIG part. I did a rather extensive post on the Fannie Mae board covering the AIG thing, but no time to dig it up right now.

The Treasury received ZERO warrants for AIG stock - well, full disclosure, they took 2% warrants at the start of the crisis, but then immediately converted it to newly created different classes of preferred stock - NO COMMON STOCK at all; however, when they went to "cash out" of their position that is when they converted the different classes of preferred stock to varying amounts common stock and sold them over something like six different offerings. The TOTAL amount of AIG common stock those preferred shares were converted to 1.655 billion shares which amounts to only 25% of the shares that would be created if they executed the full 79.9% of F2 warrants. Additionally, AIG was allowed to purchase hundreds of millions of those shares the Treasury sold to the public and retire them - so those AIG repurchased shares did NOT further dilute the shares that were still held at the time Treasury got out.

Furthermore, the Treasury ONLY made $5 Billion in TOTAL on the sale of the AIG common and preferred stock: ($74.8B - $69.8)
AIG received $69.8B in bailout from treasury for stocks
Common $47.5B
Preferred $22.3B
Treasury proceeds after the sales to the public were $74.8B
Common $51.6B
Preferred $22.3B

The Fed also participated in the AIG bailout; the Fed made a $17B profit. In total AIG received $182B, ALL UP FRONT, NOT in draws like F2 received over many many years. AIG paid back only $205B for a total profit to the government of ONLY $22B while F2 paid more than $100B over the amount of draws they received. There is no comparison and its much worse when you consider AIG sold nearly $500B in credit default swaps which was really the cause of the true fire that nearly burned down the entire financial system ... NOT F2's MBS portfolio. It's really much worse than this I only touched on the highlights here.

So, Treasury made a total profit of $5B compared to the $100 B they've currently swiped from F2 and if you've read my other posts the $100B is just the starting point of the theft from F2.

Finally, my research shows the Treasury STANDARD warrant agreement from ALL other institutions bailed out in the financial crisis was ONLY for 15% of the government's preferred stock investment.

EDIT: also, ALL other financial institutions were given the right to purchase back their warrants and virtually no instutitions had the full 15% ever executed. I believe there was no more than 450 million shares of Citigroup that went to Treasury - if that were the case for F2 we would be GOLDEN!

Government "talks" about separtion of powers...We haven't had that since the 60's, and separation has gradually gotten worse, up until now sadly. It's impossible to get justice from a government that was supposed to be by the people and for the people that is in league with it's self. F2 is one of the special cases where all three branches worked in league against it's citizens.

Agree - what we now know it seems like the whole Conservatorship could have been deemed illegal, but we NOW know that no one had standing and/or the Statute of Limitations has run to determine it illegal. Bryndon Fisher's Derivative lawsuit has been dismissed, and the Statute of Limitations has run for any new action.

Hi Neo, Thank you for taking the time for such a well reasoned and elegant reply. Also - want to thank you for introducing the word "pablum" to me.
,
I agree with you about how the GSEs were forced into Conservatorship by Hank and his fellow RINOS in the GWB Admin and how the 10% interest rate was egregious when compared what was charged to other financial institutions like Citigroup at the time. Regarding the warrants - all the bailouts including AIG resulted in the UST getting warrants - I think AIG granted the UST/Fed 92%?

The unique consideration for F2 and warrants is the issue of what the costs should be to private shareholders for the implied full faith and credit at the time of the crisis. Neither Citigroup or AIG had the full faith and credit of the US Treasury - so what warrants should have been allocated for the bailout which at the time was considered critical? Also, when we do the accounting going forward, we definitely should reverse the NWS - return the overpayment - perhaps assume a lower interest rate but there should have been an economic cost for the Commitment Fee that has never been accounted for. At the time of the Conservatorship - I thought the 80% warrants were fair but the 10% interest should have been something like 6%. Also - I thought the massive accounting charges were egregious and resulted in interest charges that were egregious and massively overstated.

Bottom line to me is that none of these matters unless it it matters to Donald Trump RIGHT NOW. I think he and Bessent are very sensitive about keeping the implied full faith and credit in place and he Bessent and Pulte will not have second thoughts about exercising the 80% warrants. The open question for me is how Trump will view the Commitment Fee and what the tradeoff is between required capital and the costs for the UST implied guarantee with the implied full faith and credit? I am of the opinion is that Trump and Bessent are more likely to have higher capital required and perhaps a lower Commitment Fee going forward - this will allow the GSEs to buy and hold more MBS and hopefully take more credit risks by winding down the CRT program since this will increase net interest income for F2. It seems to me that Trump will want to max interest income and the expense of dilution as long as the warrants are not exercised.

@POTUS @pulte @SecScottBessent @SecretaryTurner @howardlutnick @RepMeuser @RepYoungKim @BillAckman @michaeljburry

FREE FANNIE!
FREE FREDDIE!
MAGA! pic.twitter.com/d0K0w3KS8Y— Guido da Costa Pereira (@GuidoPerei) June 14, 2026

The party is upon us! F&F is about to be released - my prediction!

And we can all wish Trump a Happy Birthday in advance - of saving these once great firms from ruin.

So I wonder if Iran upholds its 4th promise?

Thanks

The U.S. Fin Tech platform has been live for almost a year now ...

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s $FNMA $FMCC wholly owned subsidiary the largest and most technologically advanced mortgage securitization platform in the United States financial industry has now gone live. https://t.co/j3skdwqTYo pic.twitter.com/QmGKyH9kQQ— Nico (@nicosintichakis) June 14, 2026

$FNMA $FMCC More hints! I think this is the summer that the GSE's are finally freed from conservatorship. https://t.co/mjT6Xn3kNc— Dayna 🦅🇺🇸 (@FreedomDayna) June 14, 2026

With the shares I own, $25 would represent a huge return for most anybody but years ago, I just salted the GSEs away and focused on other stocks that were not shackled to the dungeon wall. I've done reasonably well there but always held out hope that an honest person would come down the pike who could and would right the wrongs committed against F&F shareholders. As I said earlier, all the candidates want to plunder and not make us whole or substantially whole.
Maybe we need a third party but that's not going to happen.

I don't think like you. I would never endure this pain and lack of communication and direction for a measly 20 points. I would roll up my sleeves and start day trading my way out with other stocks - if I didn't think this would end with a huge win for the shareholders and for all investors looking to invest in anything in America.

GseHeist was dreaming a bit harder than you. It's okay to dream but eventually, reality rises up and bites you on the ass!
I've been an owner for 22 years now and would be happy to get a relisting on NYSE or NASDAQ, take the possible $25 or so, and say the hell with it before I die. Honestly, I don't think there is one individual in government sympathetic to the cause of Fannie and Freddie shareholders.

is 10x from where we are now or from $160? lol, i am dreaming. well $1600 will cover losses and may even give small profit on what is left.

Thank all for the persistent effort of fighting for the shareholders rights

All thanks are due to 955 who saved the PDF.

$fnma $fmcc Thank you, Guido! In regard to my previous post(s) about the intention of the warrants to NOT be executed, here is the relevant passage (found on page 48) from the linked pdf document below:

"Mr. Werfel indicated that the intent at this time is that the control is… https://t.co/tDbHtgTvty— Neo Sun Tzu (@neo_tzu53185) June 13, 2026

@FOFreddie ... I'm going to take a different approach here ... you are always gracious and courteous with your posts and for that you deserve kinder consideration; furthermore, you are going to be filthy, stinking rich when this is resolved and you DESERVE that as well for having noticed the violated principles in this investment which give it such value in the first place, and in the second place, for having the perserverance to see it through.

Now, that being said, the reason I take no prisoners and suffer no bull$hit with my posts is basically due to the nature of social media. For the vast majority of uneduated, ill-informed persons, which does NOT include you, one has to almost write an entire book to make certain points that should be relatively easy for those with a decent high school education to understand WITHOUT having to explain every detail. So, when someone of the elevated thinking class requires the same attention and spelled-out detail, which is sometimes understandable under certain circumstance, but much too often these days, I pull out my Mencken or Dr. Thompson sword pen and start slashing. To you, I will apologize.

Now, all that additional pablum out of the way, here is what I was getting at. All of those ERCF capital rules, restrictions on dividends and underfunded amounts ONLY exist due to the reasons I listed in that X post that Guido reposted to which you responded. Please read those again so I don't have to relist them here; they are the premise of the point that there is no lack of capital; there should actually be a huge capital surplus, no restrictions on dividends, and no need to currently be in conservatorship - all of which provides the basis of some calculated amount that should be due directly and near-immediately to shareholders for all of the bad faith actions and theft. I trust I do not need to explain this any further to anyone.

First Iran. This JUST IN!
Barack Hussein Obama’s Deal with Iran, the JCPOA, was an easy, beautiful, smooth road to a Nuclear Weapon, which Iran would have had six years ago, and would have used long before now. My Agreement with Iran is the exact opposite, A WALL TO NO NUCLEAR WEAPON! In fact, they no longer want a Nuclear Weapon, nor will they have one, either through purchase, development, or any other form of procurement. The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL. Our relationship with Iran is a much different and better one than previous Administrations have had. Unlike Obama’s Hundreds of Billions of Dollars in payments to them, including 1.7 Billion Dollars in green, cold cash, no money will exchange hands. At the appropriate time, when all is calm, we will go in and get the Nuclear Dust, buried deep under the powerful sunken granite mountains, thanks to our beautiful B-2 Bombers and their brilliant pilots, and downblend and destroy it, whether in Iran, or the United States. We look forward to working with Iran, and the entire Middle East, long into the future. Hopefully, this process will all work out quickly, easily, and smoothly. If it doesn’t, we have the ultimate alternative, hopefully never to be used again! Thank you for your attention to this matter!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/116743808155352167
$FMCC~$FNMA~
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=177699632

Like he promised to show us Ft Knox and the Epstein Files, they are sitting on Bondi’s desk he told us. All utter lip service thus far unfortunately!

I'm sure it's just a coincidence these things began to happen shortly after F2 were made the only OTC issues available to trade through Robinhood 😜

$FMCC~ $FNMA~