foxi
5年前
Bounced off the 4h bollinger bottom boundary and is now retesting the midline at .97, MACD on every chart from 1 min to 1 day is green. Volume was 27% compared to the 30-day average.
On the daily, today's candle stopped even with the 9 day moving average, coming from the bottom. Tomorrow and Friday are critical for this stock as it'll either cross above and build momentum or bounce down since the 9MA is resistance now.
A sustained run from here would confirm a double bottom and a longer term reversal. There was a huge volume uptick from .69 on what I'm still considering the dead cat bounce. IMO a sustained run would require new investment money and people willing to hold, which seems improbable given the dilution signals and lack of news catalyst.
Instead, indications are it'll bounce down because of the anomaly in Accumulation/Distribution which shows -2.61M at the low of .69 compared to -7.41M today at .95, this implies extreme shorting or dilution as many more shares have been let go while price has remained flat. (Supply and demand; supply greatly exceeds demand.)
GLTA
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doublebottom.asp
foxi
5年前
Agreed, it's threatening breakdown on the bottom band of the hourly and 4h. Sometimes they bounce back the next day if the market rejects price going lower.
BUT:
Look at accumulation distribution in this hourly chart. No one's been accumulating, it's actually lower than AccDist at the previous low of .69 -- so, no support, looks like the bottom's about to fall out unless bulls pull off a surprise rally. One caveat is RSI's still in range to support a rally. (32 could be the bottom based on RSI higher lows.)
If it doesn't bounce tomorrow, it'll crash and eventually test the boundary of the bottom band on the daily. That's currently .09
Hourly chart, blue line is 200 MA
foxi
5年前
Well this took an interesting turn, some guy came in for 500 shares at .93 and somebody else pushed it to .97 for like 200 shares. Tiiiiiiinnnny volume but then other investors added more.
Look at RSI, fractals and AwesomeOscillator on the hourly. This is positioned for an entry signal per that strategy I talked about here. If I'm investing using that strategy + the hourly chart, I'm entering at any candle that closes above the red line on alligator and watching for breakout above the nearest upside fractal at 1.20 to confirm, mental stop loss at the green line around .94
Price is far below the 200-hour moving average, so it's not as good as a trade in a stock with healthy growth, but the idea is that if there's a breakout there'll be a temporary momentum swing that'll create a row of green ticks on Awesome Oscillator for at least a few hours since the chart is 'reset' to ticks near the AO zeroline and narrow fractals.
There's no guarantee how long a run would last and I'd have to do another analysis to figure out the profit targets based on the trading that's happened. Will save the work until an actual breakout. Volume before price, bears/diluters could just be out to lunch, lol.
GLTA
PS: Give this a read, and go make a 30 minute chart with the MACD study! Do you see a divergence? :) https://excellenceassured.com/8252/macd-bullish-bearish-divergence-price
foxi
5年前
So far it's sorta holding around a dollar, though looking pretty dire. If this is anywhere near the real bottom, the previous low was .69 so a reversal at or above that price would form a double bottom on the daily chart. (That would be a good sign that this could be turning more bullish.)
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/doublebottom.asp
FDVRF almost meets the criteria for a double bottom so far. Since it didn't hold at $1, I'd expect price to come down to the .70s before it could go green again.
Otherwise for many stocks the dead cat bounces tend to happen at an order of magnitude price difference. There was one around $10, the last one was in the dollar ranges, and the next one might be in the dime ranges.
foxi
5年前
Watching this tomorrow for start of possible run to 200h average at $2.50
9h MA is close to crossing 20h MA from below, then a potential cross of the 50h MA maybe Monday. RSI is squeezed, MACD half period (0.5h) is green, MACD full period (1h) is nearly at crossover, MACD double period (2h) is close enough for a quick crossover. Bollinger Bandwidth is very low with lots of headroom, so a new bear or bull trend could quickly gain strength.
If it runs, I expect it'll stall around $2.50 and get caught in that symmetric triangle, then come back down for either a breakdown or another bounce.
The chart setup looks good enough it could also go past $2.50, depending if it's already been bouncing in a symmetric triangle since 9/1 from the top left end of that redline. In that scenario, yesterday's low could have been inflection 4 of the usual 5, where 5 often breaks out of the triangle on the opposite side.
I tend to interpret it as first entering the triangle at the bottom redline, which counting the inflections would make the current one 3, a run to $2.50 #4, and a breakdown to $1.25 #5 for a bearish continuation breakdown into the lower pennies.
Either way, if it starts to run tomorrow it looks to be a decent swing trade! :) Thoughts?
foxi
5年前
Watching this for signs of life. Some interesting stuff happening now.
Fibonacci retracements show pullback to approx the 61.8%-78.6% levels where it's trying to find support. This is a little low but commonly you'll see support for another run form around 61.8% if it's gonna. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fibonacciretracement.asp
You DO NOT want to rely on Fib Retracements alone because they are argued to be a numerical anomaly not grounded in logical proof. Nevertheless if other charting indicators agree, it can be a useful thing to watch for an upcoming momentum swing.
The other thing I put in the chart is volume profile showing daily sessions. Price is trading below VWAP (the pink line) and until it decidedly crosses over and stays over, the current trend stays bearish. In VolumeZoneOscillator, notice how far bears are willing to move (three zones!) off the zero and how consistent the selling level is. This screams that someone (company insiders?) is dragging this down with strong dilution or distribution. The gains are the market trying to breathe between the intensive selling. As soon as selling starts, it's a constant three levels out of zone, and as soon as it stops, bullish momentum starts to build, rinse repeat.
IMO whoever this is wants to manipulate price so the charts appeal to technical traders, to drive the stock higher so they can get price back up toward $5-7 or higher to continue picking the pockets of a new round of bagholders. If you can avoid being a bagholder you can potentially take advantage of a second run.
In that scenario there would be flippers with regular profit taking along the way as technical traders avoid being bagholders, so these runs would only last a couple days each before another pullback. If this goes into an up channel, it would bounce between higher highs and higher lows every week until the pattern breaks. Swing trader's dream. :)
foxi
5年前
I try to make the final decision to invest or not using the daily, but I mainly use the hourly to decide where to enter when the daily's looking promising. (You get one candle of information on the daily but 8 on the hourly!)
Retail traders with under $25k cash balance are allowed three day trades in a rolling 5 business days period. So you can see a reversal situation or possible bull trend forming on the daily, watch a few hourly candles for confirmation, and have a pretty safe buy assuming your indicators are sending clear buy signals with a panic sell if needed.
If you're watching hourly MACD, you might watch for an entry once you get three or four dark ticks after a long run of bright reds, or wait for the crossover to confirm that it's not going to bounce back down off the moving average line. When a new trend is forming, the shorter term charts (eg hourly, 4h) will do a MACD crossover and send buy signals before the longer term charts (eg daily, monthly) do. Usually you will see agreement down to about the 1h chart, but lower than that the trends fluctuate too much to be reliable.
Most likely Alligator will NOT be signalling to buy until MACD finishes a crossover, but pick your favorite tools to watch for momentum swings to give yourself early warning something's coming up. :)
When I'm buying higher in a run, or a dip after a pullback, I'll go as close as the minute charts and watch my triple-stacked MACD for momentum. Some of this is gambling and gut feel and it's very possible to get burned. A safer bet is to check for momentum swings happening on the 30m or 15m chart, but still consider the hourly for your actual entry. It's a trade off between getting in low enough to help you get out without losses if the run falters, and actually knowing there is indeed a viable run starting! It's not worth wasting time on minute runs, ideally you find the runs that last for several hours.
Jaymes
5年前
This is great stuff. 100 agree that momentum is key, driving stocks to be way overpriced or way underpriced.
I used to go by just feel. I was getting into stocks at good times, but got out too late. Giving lots of money back.
Stumbled upon MACD, and that helped with getting out, but using it in the entry put me behind the 8 ball. I think the alligator method may help with this (many thanks).
When I’m trading something like this stock, since it’s severely distressed, and almost everyone is under water, I play it riskier at the points, as most just hold on an go down with the ship. Locking up most shares, giving the chance for greater gains, and less chance of pullback. Say an apple or something as such, where almost everyone is up, I’ll go straight charts.
We definitely look more into the methods that you suggest. Try to find a nice balance of feel and charting.
Are you on Telegram, if so I’m putting together a room (small) with a couple people to discuss stocks and trading, would love to have your input on the regular.
GLTA
foxi
5年前
Ran out of time to do charts after work,
This is a 50/50 play for tomorrow. With the info available at present, I think if this goes up next it'll be short lived & potentially risky trading. I'm still liking 3.84, 4.19, 5.60 and 6.55 as possible profit targets but the former two seem most realistic. Entry would be 3.50 or above and it has to break past 3.70 to really be golden, so it's potentially lowish reward.
I'm seeing faltering signals on the hourly that suggest it could go down instead. Need more candles to confirm. That symmetric triangle on my last chart reaches the convergence point sometime Wednesday so we'll have our answer pretty soon.
GLTA!
foxi
5年前
I have the opposite problem of not knowing when to get out. XD Do you go by gut feel or look at something on the charts, or what?
I do most of my trading using moving average lines so I can try to gauge momentum. IMO it's the momentum swings that drive the price action, especially if you can catch the bottom of a downtrend (or if you're super lucky, the bottom of a breakdown like FDVRF on 9/16 which I totally missed, lol) I don't gamble with choppy trading; it's better to wait for stagnation or snipe the bottom of a downtrend.
Look up something called the Golden Cross https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/goldencross.asp and Death Cross as the theory behind those chart events actually works for any pair of moving average lines!
So here's what I used to use with inline explanations. Sorry for the eyebleed pink. This strategy is valid but it's not as good as method 2 which I'll explain after. I highly recommend hopping on youtube to learn more about these indicators as they help double-check my method 2.
Method 2 is something I've been experimenting with more recently. It's been FANTASTIC for signalling breakouts but it's not so good at predicting trend strength. So I use it in combination with the earlier indicators to watch for breakouts in market sweet spots.
This strategy is based on this video that describes a clever way to use the Williams Alligator indicator to mitigate risk. Alligator is actually another set of moving average lines but they're a bit more reactive (and prettier) than the Simple Moving Averages I noted earlier. If you follow this guy's rules precisely, you'll know exactly when to buy, sell and stop loss to minimize risk, and you'll also have early warning when a bear trend might be about to end. Using alligator this way, you'll miss surprise trend continuations sometimes, but you'll never take on excessive risk at places where the trend is faltering.
The problem is the Alligator alone doesn't tell you when breakouts will happen... So introduce Williams Fractals and Williams Awesome Oscillator:
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