2023 industry outlook appears promising as
inventory rebounds
SANTA
MONICA, Calif., Jan. 27,
2023 /PRNewswire/ -- TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE),
the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for
buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle
industry sales to reach 1,067,763 units in January 2023,
up 6.5% from a year ago and down 6.6% from December 2022, when adjusted for the same number
of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate
(SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 16
million, up 7% from January
2022. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S.
retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 895,491 units,
down 1% from a year ago and down almost 10% from December 2022.
![% of New Vehicle Sales Over MSRP % of New Vehicle Sales Over MSRP](https://mma.prnewswire.com/media/1990930/True_Car_Vehicle_Sales_Over_MSRP.jpg)
"Consumers continue to face rising new-vehicle prices across the
industry," said Zack Krelle,
Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "However, the pace has slowed as
inventory for many high-demand vehicles grows. Fewer vehicles are
seeing mark-ups (% of sales over MSRP), particularly for import
brands which faced pronounced scarcity during the peak of the
shortages."
"Tesla's drastic price reductions in January had a similar
effect on their sales as traditional OEM incentives. We'll see if
the demand increase will last as other OEMs react," said
Justin Colon, Vice President of OEM
Solutions at TrueCar.
Additional January Industry
Insights (from TrueCar):
- Total sales for January 2023 are
expected to be up 6.5% from a year ago and down 6.6% from
December 2022 when adjusted for the
same number of selling days.
- Fleet sales for January 2023 are
expected to be up 74% from a year ago and up 13% from December 2022 when adjusted for the same number
of selling days.
- Average transaction price for new vehicles is projected to be
up 3% from a year ago and down 2% from December 2022.
- Total SAAR is expected to be up 7% from a year ago at about 16
million units.
- Used vehicle sales for January
2023 are expected to reach almost 2.5 million, down 21% from
a year ago and even with December
2022.
- The average interest rate on new vehicles is 6.9% compared to
December 2022 at 6.7% and the average
interest rate on used vehicles is 10%.
- The average loan term on a new vehicle for January 2023 is 69 months and the average loan
term on a used vehicle is 70 months.
- Full year 2023 sales are expected at 15 million units.
Total Unit
Sales
|
|
|
Manufacturer
|
Jan 2023
Forecast
|
Jan 2022
Actual
|
Dec 2022
Actual
|
YoY %
Change
|
YoY % Change
(Daily Selling
Rate)
|
MoM %
Change
|
MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
|
BMW
|
32,404
|
24,024
|
42,797
|
34.9 %
|
34.9 %
|
-24.3 %
|
-14.8 %
|
Daimler
|
24,561
|
20,400
|
31,355
|
20.4 %
|
20.4 %
|
-21.7 %
|
-11.9 %
|
Ford
|
142,485
|
142,445
|
177,868
|
0.0 %
|
0.0 %
|
-19.9 %
|
-9.9 %
|
GM
|
184,177
|
142,574
|
220,166
|
29.2 %
|
29.2 %
|
-16.3 %
|
-5.9 %
|
Honda
|
87,755
|
73,949
|
93,843
|
18.7 %
|
18.7 %
|
-6.5 %
|
5.2 %
|
Hyundai
|
60,167
|
51,510
|
78,230
|
16.8 %
|
16.8 %
|
-23.1 %
|
-13.5 %
|
Kia
|
46,323
|
42,488
|
60,422
|
9.0 %
|
9.0 %
|
-23.3 %
|
-13.8 %
|
Nissan
|
58,273
|
59,742
|
65,103
|
-2.5 %
|
-2.5 %
|
-10.5 %
|
0.7 %
|
Stellantis
|
105,010
|
125,265
|
125,037
|
-16.2 %
|
-16.2 %
|
-16.0 %
|
-5.5 %
|
Subaru
|
45,874
|
44,158
|
56,760
|
3.9 %
|
3.9 %
|
-19.2 %
|
-9.1 %
|
Tesla
|
55,142
|
40,165
|
44,923
|
37.3 %
|
37.3 %
|
22.7 %
|
38.1 %
|
Toyota
|
140,523
|
158,676
|
180,906
|
-11.4 %
|
-11.4 %
|
-22.3 %
|
-12.6 %
|
Volkswagen
Group
|
39,212
|
37,971
|
50,115
|
3.3 %
|
3.3 %
|
-21.8 %
|
-12.0 %
|
Industry
|
1,067,763
|
1,002,304
|
1,286,598
|
6.5 %
|
6.5 %
|
-17.0 %
|
-6.6 %
|
Retail Unit
Sales
|
|
|
Manufacturer
|
Jan 2023
Forecast
|
Jan 2022
Actual
|
Dec 2022
Actual
|
YoY %
Change
|
YoY % Change
(Daily Selling
Rate)
|
MoM %
Change
|
MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
|
BMW
|
29,948
|
22,609
|
39,271
|
32.5 %
|
32.5 %
|
-23.7 %
|
-14.2 %
|
Daimler
|
22,207
|
18,610
|
29,147
|
19.3 %
|
19.3 %
|
-23.8 %
|
-14.3 %
|
Ford
|
107,196
|
110,545
|
132,667
|
-3.0 %
|
-3.0 %
|
-19.2 %
|
-9.1 %
|
GM
|
139,694
|
128,124
|
181,815
|
9.0 %
|
9.0 %
|
-23.2 %
|
-13.6 %
|
Honda
|
86,150
|
73,567
|
91,217
|
17.1 %
|
17.1 %
|
-5.6 %
|
6.3 %
|
Hyundai
|
56,583
|
50,844
|
77,320
|
11.3 %
|
11.3 %
|
-26.8 %
|
-17.7 %
|
Kia
|
43,149
|
39,882
|
58,389
|
8.2 %
|
8.2 %
|
-26.1 %
|
-16.9 %
|
Nissan
|
48,877
|
53,153
|
53,314
|
-8.0 %
|
-8.0 %
|
-8.3 %
|
3.1 %
|
Stellantis
|
69,560
|
101,987
|
100,020
|
-31.8 %
|
-31.8 %
|
-30.5 %
|
-21.8 %
|
Subaru
|
44,529
|
43,267
|
55,293
|
2.9 %
|
2.9 %
|
-19.5 %
|
-9.4 %
|
Tesla
|
49,732
|
39,782
|
37,632
|
25.0 %
|
25.0 %
|
32.2 %
|
48.7 %
|
Toyota
|
125,692
|
148,495
|
161,875
|
-15.4 %
|
-15.4 %
|
-22.4 %
|
-12.6 %
|
Volkswagen
Group
|
33,883
|
37,350
|
45,931
|
-9.3 %
|
-9.3 %
|
-26.2 %
|
-17.0 %
|
Industry
|
895,491
|
905,130
|
1,115,659
|
-1.1 %
|
-1.1 %
|
-19.7 %
|
-9.7 %
|
Fleet Unit
Sales
|
|
|
Manufacturer
|
Jan 2023
Forecast
|
Jan 2022
Actual
|
Dec 2022
Actual
|
YoY %
Change
|
YoY % Change
(Daily Selling
Rate)
|
MoM %
Change
|
MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)
|
BMW
|
2,456
|
1,415
|
3,526
|
73.5 %
|
73.5 %
|
-30.4 %
|
-21.6 %
|
Daimler
|
2,354
|
1,790
|
2,208
|
31.5 %
|
31.5 %
|
6.6 %
|
19.9 %
|
Ford
|
35,289
|
31,900
|
45,201
|
10.6 %
|
10.6 %
|
-21.9 %
|
-12.2 %
|
GM
|
44,483
|
14,450
|
38,351
|
207.8 %
|
207.8 %
|
16.0 %
|
30.5 %
|
Honda
|
1,605
|
382
|
2,626
|
320.5 %
|
320.5 %
|
-38.9 %
|
-31.2 %
|
Hyundai
|
3,584
|
666
|
910
|
438.2 %
|
438.2 %
|
293.8 %
|
343.0 %
|
Kia
|
3,174
|
2,606
|
2,033
|
21.8 %
|
21.8 %
|
56.1 %
|
75.6 %
|
Nissan
|
9,396
|
6,589
|
11,789
|
42.6 %
|
42.6 %
|
-20.3 %
|
-10.3 %
|
Stellantis
|
35,450
|
23,278
|
25,017
|
52.3 %
|
52.3 %
|
41.7 %
|
59.4 %
|
Subaru
|
1,345
|
891
|
1,467
|
50.9 %
|
50.9 %
|
-8.3 %
|
3.1 %
|
Tesla
|
5,410
|
383
|
7,291
|
1312.4 %
|
1312.4 %
|
-25.8 %
|
-16.5 %
|
Toyota
|
14,831
|
10,181
|
19,031
|
45.7 %
|
45.7 %
|
-22.1 %
|
-12.3 %
|
Volkswagen
Group
|
5,329
|
621
|
4,184
|
757.7 %
|
757.7 %
|
27.4 %
|
43.3 %
|
Industry
|
168,306
|
96,976
|
167,397
|
73.6 %
|
73.6 %
|
0.5 %
|
13.1 %
|
Fleet
Penetration
|
Manufacturer
|
Jan 2023
Forecast
|
Jan 2022
Actual
|
Dec 2022
Actual
|
YoY %
Change
|
MoM %
Change
|
BMW
|
7.6 %
|
5.9 %
|
8.2 %
|
28.6 %
|
-8.0 %
|
Daimler
|
9.6 %
|
8.8 %
|
7.0 %
|
9.3 %
|
36.1 %
|
Ford
|
24.8 %
|
22.4 %
|
25.4 %
|
10.6 %
|
-2.5 %
|
GM
|
24.2 %
|
10.1 %
|
17.4 %
|
138.3 %
|
38.7 %
|
Honda
|
1.8 %
|
0.5 %
|
2.8 %
|
254.3 %
|
-34.6 %
|
Hyundai
|
6.0 %
|
1.3 %
|
1.2 %
|
360.7 %
|
412.0 %
|
Kia
|
6.9 %
|
6.1 %
|
3.4 %
|
11.7 %
|
103.6 %
|
Nissan
|
16.1 %
|
11.0 %
|
18.1 %
|
46.2 %
|
-11.0 %
|
Stellantis
|
33.8 %
|
18.6 %
|
20.0 %
|
81.7 %
|
68.7 %
|
Subaru
|
2.9 %
|
2.0 %
|
2.6 %
|
45.3 %
|
13.4 %
|
Tesla
|
9.8 %
|
1.0 %
|
16.2 %
|
928.8 %
|
-39.6 %
|
Toyota
|
10.6 %
|
6.4 %
|
10.5 %
|
64.5 %
|
0.3 %
|
Volkswagen
Group
|
13.6 %
|
1.6 %
|
8.3 %
|
730.6 %
|
62.8 %
|
Industry
|
15.8 %
|
9.7 %
|
13.0 %
|
62.9 %
|
21.1 %
|
Total Market
Share
|
Manufacturer
|
Jan 2023
Forecast
|
Jan 2022
Actual
|
Dec 2022
Actual
|
BMW
|
3.0 %
|
2.4 %
|
3.3 %
|
Daimler
|
2.3 %
|
2.0 %
|
2.4 %
|
Ford
|
13.3 %
|
14.2 %
|
13.8 %
|
GM
|
17.2 %
|
14.2 %
|
17.1 %
|
Honda
|
8.2 %
|
7.4 %
|
7.3 %
|
Hyundai
|
5.6 %
|
5.1 %
|
6.1 %
|
Kia
|
4.3 %
|
4.2 %
|
4.7 %
|
Nissan
|
5.5 %
|
6.0 %
|
5.1 %
|
Stellantis
|
9.8 %
|
12.5 %
|
9.7 %
|
Subaru
|
4.3 %
|
4.4 %
|
4.4 %
|
Tesla
|
5.2 %
|
4.0 %
|
3.5 %
|
Toyota
|
13.2 %
|
15.8 %
|
14.1 %
|
Volkswagen
Group
|
3.7 %
|
3.8 %
|
3.9 %
|
|
95.7 %
|
96.1 %
|
95.4 %
|
Retail Market
Share
|
Manufacturer
|
Jan 2023
Forecast
|
Jan 2022
Actual
|
Dec 2022
Actual
|
BMW
|
3.3 %
|
2.5 %
|
3.5 %
|
Daimler
|
2.5 %
|
2.1 %
|
2.6 %
|
Ford
|
12.0 %
|
12.2 %
|
11.9 %
|
GM
|
15.6 %
|
14.2 %
|
16.3 %
|
Honda
|
9.6 %
|
8.1 %
|
8.2 %
|
Hyundai
|
6.3 %
|
5.6 %
|
6.9 %
|
Kia
|
4.8 %
|
4.4 %
|
5.2 %
|
Nissan
|
5.5 %
|
5.9 %
|
4.8 %
|
Stellantis
|
7.8 %
|
11.3 %
|
9.0 %
|
Subaru
|
5.0 %
|
4.8 %
|
5.0 %
|
Tesla
|
5.6 %
|
4.4 %
|
3.4 %
|
Toyota
|
14.0 %
|
16.4 %
|
14.5 %
|
Volkswagen
Group
|
3.8 %
|
4.1 %
|
4.1 %
|
|
95.7 %
|
95.9 %
|
95.4 %
|
ATP
|
|
|
Manufacturer
|
Jan 2023
Forecast
|
Jan 2022
Actual
|
Dec 2022
Actual
|
YOY
|
MOM
|
BMW
|
$68,949
|
$62,949
|
$67,993
|
9.5 %
|
1.4 %
|
Daimler
|
$77,902
|
$75,602
|
$74,992
|
3.0 %
|
3.9 %
|
Ford
|
$54,810
|
$49,599
|
$55,873
|
10.5 %
|
-1.9 %
|
GM
|
$51,388
|
$51,741
|
$52,565
|
-0.7 %
|
-2.2 %
|
Honda
|
$36,742
|
$35,683
|
$37,141
|
3.0 %
|
-1.1 %
|
Hyundai
|
$37,610
|
$36,834
|
$37,063
|
2.1 %
|
1.5 %
|
Kia
|
$34,728
|
$34,391
|
$35,256
|
1.0 %
|
-1.5 %
|
Nissan
|
$37,206
|
$34,389
|
$37,211
|
8.2 %
|
0.0 %
|
Stellantis
|
$55,136
|
$52,755
|
$55,989
|
4.5 %
|
-1.5 %
|
Subaru
|
$35,072
|
$35,003
|
$35,655
|
0.2 %
|
-1.6 %
|
Toyota
|
$40,480
|
$39,463
|
$40,175
|
2.6 %
|
0.8 %
|
Volkswagen
Group
|
$50,345
|
$49,508
|
$51,358
|
1.7 %
|
-2.0 %
|
Industry
|
$45,184
|
$43,790
|
$46,031
|
3.2 %
|
-1.8 %
|
|
$1,394
|
|
-$847
|
|
|
Incentives
|
|
|
Manufacturer
|
Jan 2023
Forecast
|
Jan 2022
Actual
|
Dec 2022
Actual
|
YOY
|
MOM
|
BMW
|
$1,910
|
$2,795
|
$2,030
|
-31.7 %
|
-5.9 %
|
Daimler
|
$2,345
|
$2,083
|
$2,239
|
12.6 %
|
4.7 %
|
Ford
|
$1,155
|
$2,191
|
$1,095
|
-47.3 %
|
5.5 %
|
GM
|
$1,457
|
$2,046
|
$1,384
|
-28.8 %
|
5.3 %
|
Honda
|
$969
|
$1,249
|
$973
|
-22.5 %
|
-0.5 %
|
Hyundai
|
$885
|
$1,136
|
$1,062
|
-22.1 %
|
-16.7 %
|
Kia
|
$495
|
$1,753
|
$522
|
-71.8 %
|
-5.2 %
|
Nissan
|
$1,448
|
$2,010
|
$1,434
|
-28.0 %
|
0.9 %
|
Stellantis
|
$2,091
|
$2,498
|
$1,996
|
-16.3 %
|
4.8 %
|
Subaru
|
$469
|
$986
|
$465
|
-52.4 %
|
0.9 %
|
Toyota
|
$609
|
$1,141
|
$610
|
-46.7 %
|
-0.2 %
|
Volkswagen
Group
|
$1,594
|
$1,963
|
$1,541
|
-18.8 %
|
3.4 %
|
Industry
|
$1,441
|
$1,804
|
$1,333
|
-20.1 %
|
8.1 %
|
|
-$362
|
|
$108
|
|
|
Incentives as % of
ATP
|
|
|
Manufacturer
|
Jan 2023
Forecast
|
Jan 2022
Actual
|
Dec 2022
Actual
|
YOY
|
MOM
|
BMW
|
2.8 %
|
4.4 %
|
3.0 %
|
-37.6 %
|
-7.2 %
|
Daimler
|
3.0 %
|
2.8 %
|
3.0 %
|
9.2 %
|
0.8 %
|
Ford
|
2.1 %
|
4.4 %
|
2.0 %
|
-52.3 %
|
7.6 %
|
GM
|
2.8 %
|
4.0 %
|
2.6 %
|
-28.3 %
|
7.7 %
|
Honda
|
2.6 %
|
3.5 %
|
2.6 %
|
-24.7 %
|
0.6 %
|
Hyundai
|
2.4 %
|
3.1 %
|
2.9 %
|
-23.7 %
|
-17.9 %
|
Kia
|
1.4 %
|
5.1 %
|
1.5 %
|
-72.1 %
|
-3.8 %
|
Nissan
|
3.9 %
|
5.8 %
|
3.9 %
|
-33.4 %
|
1.0 %
|
Stellantis
|
3.8 %
|
4.7 %
|
3.6 %
|
-19.9 %
|
6.4 %
|
Subaru
|
1.3 %
|
2.8 %
|
1.3 %
|
-52.5 %
|
2.6 %
|
Toyota
|
1.5 %
|
2.9 %
|
1.5 %
|
-48.0 %
|
-1.0 %
|
Volkswagen
Group
|
3.2 %
|
4.0 %
|
3.0 %
|
-20.2 %
|
5.5 %
|
Industry
|
3.2 %
|
4.1 %
|
2.9 %
|
-22.6 %
|
10.1 %
|
Revenue
|
|
|
Manufacturer
|
Jan 2023
Forecast
|
Jan 2022
Actual
|
Dec 2022
Actual
|
YOY
|
MOM
|
Industry
|
$48,245,810,311
|
$43,890,800,180
|
$59,223,502,944
|
9.9 %
|
-18.5 %
|
(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar,
Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions
and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s
operations.)
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that lets
auto buyers and sellers connect to our nationwide network of
Certified Dealers. With access to an expansive inventory provided
by our Certified Dealers, we are building the industry's most
personalized and efficient auto shopping experience as we seek to
bring more of the process online. Consumers who visit our
marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price
ratings and market context on new, used and Certified Pre-Owned
vehicles. When they are ready, shoppers in TrueCar's marketplace
can connect with a Certified Dealer in our network, who shares our
belief that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of
a great auto shopping experience. As part of our marketplace,
TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands,
including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American
Express.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and
follow us on LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter.
View original content to download
multimedia:https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/truecar-releases-analysis-of-january-industry-sales-301732237.html
SOURCE TrueCar.com