TrueCar and ALG Forecast New Vehicle Retail Sales Rise for Third Consecutive Month
2020年11月24日 - 11:00PM
TrueCar, Inc. and its ALG, Inc. subsidiary project total new
vehicle sales will reach 1,243,630 units in November 2020, down
0.5% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling
days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for
total light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.4 million units.
Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar and ALG expect U.S. retail
deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,099,808 units, an
increase of 2.9% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number
of selling days.
Average transaction prices (ATP) are projected
to be up 4.7% or $1,707 from a year ago and up 2.3% or $838 from
October 2020. TrueCar projects that U.S. revenue from new vehicle
sales will reach more than $47 billion for November 2020, down 7.9%
(based on a non-adjusted daily selling rate) from a year ago and
down 6.6% from last month.
“As Thanksgiving weekend and Black Friday inch
closer, we anticipate the new vehicle sales momentum from the past
three months to continue with increases year-over-year for new
retail sales,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst for ALG. “We
expect many consumers who have not been financially affected by the
pandemic to make their vehicle purchases this month, especially
with fewer people traveling this holiday season and with inventory
rebounding.”
“Last year, the average discount on Black Friday
was 10.2% off the manufacturer’s suggested retail price and we
expect similar deals for this year,” added Lyman.
Additional Insights:
(Forecast by ALG
and TrueCar)
- Total retail sales for November 2020 are expected to be up 2.9%
from a year ago and up 8.4% from October 2020 when adjusted for the
same number of selling days.
- Fleet sales for November 2020 are expected to be down 21% from
a year ago and up 38% from October 2020 when adjusted for the same
number of selling days.
- Average transaction prices (ATP) are projected to be up 4.7% or
$1,707 from a year ago and up 2.3% or $838 from October 2020.
- Total SAAR is expected to decrease 4% from a year ago from 17
million units to 16.3million units.
- Used vehicle sales for November 2020 are expected to reach 3
million, down 1% from a year ago and down 11% from October
2020.
- The average interest rates on new vehicles are 5.7% and the
average interest rates on used vehicles are 8.1%.
“New vehicle average transaction prices are
making a significant jump for November, with prices increasing more
than $1,700 from a year ago,” said Nick Woolard, Director
of OEM Analytics at TrueCar. “While it’s somewhat surprising
to see this trend during a period of economic uncertainty, this is
being driven by consumers who continue to gravitate toward
utilities and pickup trucks at higher price points.”
“Incentives are up are slightly for November
year-over-year and shoppers can expect to find good Black Friday
deals like any other year. While inventory has been rebounding, it
varies by brand and model so if there is a vehicle that a consumer
has their heart set on, we recommend moving quickly to make the
purchase and secure the vehicle,” added Woolard.
November 2020 forecasts
for the 13 largest manufacturers by
volume. For additional data visit the
ALG Newsroom and
TrueCar
Newsroom.
Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
Nov 2020 Forecast |
Nov 2019 Actual |
Oct 2020 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling
Rate) |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
29,106 |
34,398 |
31,040 |
-15.4% |
-4.3% |
-6.2% |
14.2% |
Daimler |
26,033 |
37,263 |
29,082 |
-30.1% |
-21.0% |
-10.5% |
9.0% |
FCA |
144,538 |
174,324 |
159,147 |
-17.1% |
-6.3% |
-9.2% |
10.6% |
Ford |
152,395 |
188,718 |
181,820 |
-19.2% |
-8.7% |
-16.2% |
2.0% |
GM |
231,898 |
245,108 |
259,493 |
-5.4% |
7.0% |
-10.6% |
8.8% |
Honda |
111,244 |
133,952 |
126,987 |
-17.0% |
-6.1% |
-12.4% |
6.6% |
Hyundai |
58,334 |
62,768 |
58,449 |
-7.1% |
5.1% |
-0.2% |
21.5% |
Kia |
49,008 |
50,504 |
56,094 |
-3.0% |
9.7% |
-12.6% |
6.4% |
Nissan |
75,306 |
92,947 |
71,679 |
-19.0% |
-8.4% |
5.1% |
27.9% |
Subaru |
51,480 |
56,893 |
61,411 |
-9.5% |
2.3% |
-16.2% |
2.1% |
Tesla |
20,571 |
16,450 |
19,600 |
25.1% |
41.4% |
5.0% |
27.8% |
Toyota |
197,954 |
207,857 |
203,936 |
-4.8% |
7.7% |
-2.9% |
18.2% |
Volkswagen Group |
46,191 |
56,575 |
51,607 |
-18.4% |
-7.7% |
-10.5% |
9.0% |
Industry |
1,243,630 |
1,413,514 |
1,361,858 |
-12.0% |
-0.5% |
-8.7% |
11.2% |
Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
Nov 2020 Forecast |
Nov 2019 Actual |
Oct 2020 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling
Rate) |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
28,349 |
31,828 |
30,062 |
-10.9% |
0.7% |
-5.7% |
14.8% |
Daimler |
25,489 |
34,546 |
28,268 |
-26.2% |
-16.6% |
-9.8% |
9.8% |
FCA |
126,519 |
136,339 |
139,670 |
-7.2% |
4.9% |
-9.4% |
10.3% |
Ford |
120,561 |
141,865 |
142,698 |
-15.0% |
-3.9% |
-15.5% |
2.9% |
GM |
187,379 |
188,634 |
225,535 |
-0.7% |
12.3% |
-16.9% |
1.1% |
Honda |
110,689 |
132,842 |
126,401 |
-16.7% |
-5.8% |
-12.4% |
6.6% |
Hyundai |
52,191 |
52,534 |
53,257 |
-0.7% |
12.3% |
-2.0% |
19.3% |
Kia |
46,776 |
46,370 |
54,492 |
0.9% |
14.0% |
-14.2% |
4.5% |
Nissan |
62,094 |
73,383 |
66,404 |
-15.4% |
-4.3% |
-6.5% |
13.8% |
Subaru |
49,602 |
54,658 |
60,213 |
-9.2% |
2.6% |
-17.6% |
0.3% |
Tesla |
20,559 |
16,450 |
19,588 |
25.0% |
41.3% |
5.0% |
27.8% |
Toyota |
178,433 |
195,312 |
188,689 |
-8.6% |
3.3% |
-5.4% |
15.1% |
Volkswagen Group |
45,452 |
54,148 |
51,401 |
-16.1% |
-5.1% |
-11.6% |
7.6% |
Industry |
1,099,808 |
1,207,742 |
1,235,269 |
-8.9% |
2.9% |
-11.0% |
8.4% |
Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
Nov 2020 Forecast |
Nov 2019 Actual |
Oct 2020 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling
Rate) |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
757 |
2,570 |
978 |
-70.5% |
-66.7% |
-22.6% |
-5.8% |
Daimler |
543 |
2,717 |
814 |
-80.0% |
-77.4% |
-33.2% |
-18.7% |
FCA |
18,019 |
37,985 |
19,477 |
-52.6% |
-46.4% |
-7.5% |
12.6% |
Ford |
31,834 |
46,853 |
39,122 |
-32.1% |
-23.2% |
-18.6% |
-0.9% |
GM |
44,519 |
56,474 |
33,958 |
-21.2% |
-10.9% |
31.1% |
59.6% |
Honda |
555 |
1,110 |
586 |
-50.0% |
-43.5% |
-5.2% |
15.4% |
Hyundai |
6,143 |
10,234 |
5,192 |
-40.0% |
-32.2% |
18.3% |
44.0% |
Kia |
2,232 |
4,134 |
1,602 |
-46.0% |
-39.0% |
39.4% |
69.7% |
Nissan |
13,212 |
19,564 |
5,275 |
-32.5% |
-23.7% |
150.5% |
204.9% |
Subaru |
1,877 |
2,235 |
1,198 |
-16.0% |
-5.0% |
56.7% |
90.7% |
Tesla |
12 |
- |
12 |
- |
- |
-2.7% |
18.5% |
Toyota |
19,521 |
12,545 |
15,247 |
55.6% |
75.9% |
28.0% |
55.9% |
Volkswagen Group |
739 |
2,427 |
206 |
-69.5% |
-65.6% |
259.0% |
337.0% |
Industry |
143,823 |
205,772 |
126,589 |
-30.1% |
-21.0% |
13.6% |
38.3% |
Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer |
Nov 2020 Forecast |
Nov 2019 Actual |
Oct 2020 Actual |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
BMW |
2.6% |
7.5% |
3.2% |
-65.2% |
-17.5% |
Daimler |
2.1% |
7.3% |
2.8% |
-71.4% |
-25.4% |
FCA |
12.5% |
21.8% |
12.2% |
-42.8% |
1.9% |
Ford |
20.9% |
24.8% |
21.5% |
-15.9% |
-2.9% |
GM |
19.2% |
23.0% |
13.1% |
-16.7% |
46.7% |
Honda |
0.5% |
0.8% |
0.5% |
-39.8% |
8.2% |
Hyundai |
10.5% |
16.3% |
8.9% |
-35.4% |
18.5% |
Kia |
4.6% |
8.2% |
2.9% |
-44.4% |
59.5% |
Nissan |
17.5% |
21.0% |
7.4% |
-16.7% |
138.4% |
Subaru |
3.6% |
3.9% |
2.0% |
-7.2% |
86.9% |
Tesla |
0.1% |
0.0% |
0.1% |
|
-7.3% |
Toyota |
9.9% |
6.0% |
7.5% |
63.4% |
31.9% |
Volkswagen Group |
1.6% |
4.3% |
0.4% |
-62.7% |
301.0% |
Industry |
11.6% |
14.6% |
9.3% |
-20.6% |
24.4% |
Total Market Share
Manufacturer |
Nov 2020 Forecast |
Nov 2019 Actual |
Oct 2020 Actual |
BMW |
2.3% |
2.4% |
2.3% |
Daimler |
2.1% |
2.6% |
2.1% |
FCA |
11.6% |
12.3% |
11.7% |
Ford |
12.3% |
13.4% |
13.4% |
GM |
18.6% |
17.3% |
19.1% |
Honda |
8.9% |
9.5% |
9.3% |
Hyundai |
4.7% |
4.4% |
4.3% |
Kia |
3.9% |
3.6% |
4.1% |
Nissan |
6.1% |
6.6% |
5.3% |
Subaru |
4.1% |
4.0% |
4.5% |
Tesla |
1.7% |
1.2% |
1.4% |
Toyota |
15.9% |
14.7% |
15.0% |
Volkswagen Group |
3.7% |
4.0% |
3.8% |
Retail Market Share
Manufacturer |
Nov 2020 Forecast |
Nov 2019 Actual |
Oct 2020 Actual |
BMW |
2.6% |
2.6% |
2.4% |
Daimler |
2.3% |
2.9% |
2.3% |
FCA |
11.5% |
11.3% |
11.3% |
Ford |
11.0% |
11.7% |
11.6% |
GM |
17.0% |
15.6% |
18.3% |
Honda |
10.1% |
11.0% |
10.2% |
Hyundai |
4.7% |
4.3% |
4.3% |
Kia |
4.3% |
3.8% |
4.4% |
Nissan |
5.6% |
6.1% |
5.4% |
Subaru |
4.5% |
4.5% |
4.9% |
Tesla |
1.9% |
1.4% |
1.6% |
Toyota |
16.2% |
16.2% |
15.3% |
Volkswagen Group |
4.1% |
4.5% |
4.2% |
Average Transaction Price
(ATP)
Manufacturer |
Nov 2020 Forecast |
Nov 2019 Actual |
Oct 2020 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$58,351 |
$57,900 |
$60,190 |
0.8% |
-3.1% |
Daimler |
$58,126 |
$59,162 |
$57,710 |
-1.8% |
0.7% |
FCA |
$44,108 |
$41,146 |
$42,756 |
7.2% |
3.2% |
Ford |
$44,237 |
$41,458 |
$43,594 |
6.7% |
1.5% |
GM |
$43,790 |
$41,335 |
$42,665 |
5.9% |
2.6% |
Honda |
$30,746 |
$29,423 |
$30,570 |
4.5% |
0.6% |
Hyundai |
$29,279 |
$26,338 |
$28,659 |
11.2% |
2.2% |
Kia |
$28,395 |
$26,164 |
$27,826 |
8.5% |
2.0% |
Nissan |
$29,529 |
$29,128 |
$29,066 |
1.4% |
1.6% |
Subaru |
$30,740 |
$30,084 |
$30,337 |
2.2% |
1.3% |
Toyota |
$35,463 |
$33,605 |
$34,978 |
5.5% |
1.4% |
Volkswagen Group |
$42,544 |
$40,953 |
$41,480 |
3.9% |
2.6% |
Industry |
$38,024 |
$36,317 |
$37,186 |
4.7% |
2.3% |
Incentive Spending
Manufacturer |
Nov 2020 Forecast |
Nov 2019 Actual |
Oct 2020 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$5,114 |
$6,074 |
$5,866 |
-15.8% |
-12.8% |
Daimler |
$5,161 |
$5,369 |
$5,675 |
-3.9% |
-9.1% |
FCA |
$4,255 |
$4,941 |
$5,045 |
-13.9% |
-15.6% |
Ford |
$4,737 |
$4,615 |
$4,313 |
2.6% |
9.8% |
GM |
$4,803 |
$5,108 |
$5,653 |
-6.0% |
-15.0% |
Honda |
$2,397 |
$2,046 |
$2,654 |
17.2% |
-9.7% |
Hyundai |
$2,535 |
$2,757 |
$2,479 |
-8.1% |
2.2% |
Kia |
$2,774 |
$3,541 |
$3,779 |
-21.7% |
-26.6% |
Nissan |
$4,876 |
$3,970 |
$4,831 |
22.8% |
0.9% |
Subaru |
$1,762 |
$1,454 |
$1,747 |
21.2% |
0.9% |
Toyota |
$2,733 |
$2,519 |
$2,676 |
8.5% |
2.1% |
Volkswagen Group |
$4,312 |
$3,479 |
$4,401 |
23.9% |
-2.0% |
Industry |
$3,819 |
$3,797 |
$4,103 |
0.6% |
-6.9% |
Incentives as a Percentage of Average
Transaction Price (ATP)
Manufacturer |
Nov 2020 Forecast |
Nov 2019 Actual |
Oct 2020 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
8.8% |
10.5% |
9.7% |
-16.5% |
-10.1% |
Daimler |
8.9% |
9.1% |
9.8% |
-2.2% |
-9.7% |
FCA |
9.6% |
12.0% |
11.8% |
-19.7% |
-18.2% |
Ford |
10.7% |
11.1% |
9.9% |
-3.8% |
8.2% |
GM |
11.0% |
12.4% |
13.2% |
-11.2% |
-17.2% |
Honda |
7.8% |
7.0% |
8.7% |
12.1% |
-10.2% |
Hyundai |
8.7% |
10.5% |
8.7% |
-17.3% |
0.1% |
Kia |
9.8% |
13.5% |
13.6% |
-27.8% |
-28.1% |
Nissan |
16.5% |
13.6% |
16.6% |
21.2% |
-0.6% |
Subaru |
5.7% |
4.8% |
5.8% |
18.6% |
-0.5% |
Toyota |
7.7% |
7.5% |
7.7% |
2.8% |
0.7% |
Volkswagen Group |
10.1% |
8.5% |
10.6% |
19.3% |
-4.5% |
Industry |
10.0% |
10.5% |
11.0% |
-3.9% |
-9.0% |
(Note: This forecast is based solely
on ALG's analysis of industry
sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of
TrueCar, Inc.’s
operations.)
About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica,
California, ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual
value projections in both the United States and Canada. By
analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual
value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services clients
with market industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting
and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a
wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive
marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about
what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing
residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over
55 years and in Canada since 1981.
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital
marketplace that enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide
network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most
personalized and efficient car buying experience as we seek to
bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit
our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price
ratings and market context on new and used cars -- all with a clear
view of what's a great deal. When they are
ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local
Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency
and fairness are the foundation of a great car buying experience.
As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying
programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club,
and American Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage
with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and
drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa
Monica, California, with offices in Austin,
Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.
For more information, please
visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or
Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US
toll-free) | Email: pr@truecar.com
A photo accompanying this announcement is available at
https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/7a61fef7-cc33-44be-883f-a3c32578fbcc
TrueCar and ALG PR Contact:
Shadee Malekafzali
shadee@truecar.com
424.258.8694
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