ALG Forecasts Average New Vehicle Transaction Price Up 3.3% for July 2020
2020年8月3日 - 10:00PM
ALG, Inc., a subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc. and the industry benchmark
for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects
average transaction prices (ATP) to be up 3.3% or $1,172 from a
year ago but down 0.6% or $229 from June 2020.
“While average transaction prices continue to tick up each month
when compared to the same period last year, we ‘re seeing a slow
decline in transaction prices month-over-month since May, as
manufacturers slowly pull back incentives and inventory levels
shrink for certain models,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry
Analyst for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “Shoppers looking
for specific models and trims might experience limited selection or
higher price points on popular models in low inventory at
dealerships. On the other hand, consumers willing to be more
flexible with their consideration set can still find great deals on
certain oversupplied models with incentives from
manufacturers.”
“For the first time since March, automaker revenue for new
vehicle sales will be up month-over-month by six percent. This is
due to strategic incentive spending by the manufacturers and the
continued recovery in new vehicle sales,” added Lyman.
View ALG’s sales forecast for new and used vehicles here.
ALG projects that U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach
more than $43 billion for July 2020, down 11.9% (based on a
non-adjusted daily selling rate) from a year ago and up 6% from
last month.
“We are seeing the effects that limited vehicle supply has on
average transaction price for some brands. For example, Kia is
seeing a year-over-year decline in their overall average
transaction price which is mainly due to low inventory levels on
their high demand Telluride, one of the most expensive vehicles in
their lineup,” said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM and Affinity
Partner Analytics for TrueCar. “Brands with more plentiful
inventory levels on popular models, such as Ford, are successfully
increasing their transaction prices year-over-year. On the TrueCar
platform, we are seeing a mix shift from Ford shoppers from the
Escape to the Explorer, leading to higher transaction prices.”
“On the Retail Health Index, which measures automaker brand
health, American luxury brand, Lincoln, is showing positive
momentum with an improvement in market share during the past couple
of months. Their Aviator and Nautilus models continue to perform
strongly against segment competitors and Lincoln’s strategic and
targeted incentive spending is also contributing to their
improvement on the Retail Health Index,” added Woolard.
July 2020 forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by
volume. For additional data visit the ALG
Newsroom.
Average Transaction Price (ATP)
Manufacturer |
Jul 2020 Forecast |
Jul 2019 Actual |
Jun 2020 Actual |
YOY |
|
MOM |
|
BMW |
$ |
58,079 |
$ |
56,622 |
$ |
58,684 |
2.6 |
% |
-1.0 |
% |
Daimler |
$ |
61,003 |
$ |
57,054 |
$ |
59,750 |
6.9 |
% |
2.1 |
% |
FCA |
$ |
41,326 |
$ |
39,796 |
$ |
41,507 |
3.8 |
% |
-0.4 |
% |
Ford |
$ |
43,769 |
$ |
39,873 |
$ |
43,535 |
9.8 |
% |
0.5 |
% |
GM |
$ |
40,824 |
$ |
40,126 |
$ |
39,789 |
1.7 |
% |
2.6 |
% |
Honda |
$ |
30,150 |
$ |
29,304 |
$ |
30,242 |
2.9 |
% |
-0.3 |
% |
Hyundai |
$ |
28,735 |
$ |
25,908 |
$ |
28,702 |
10.9 |
% |
0.1 |
% |
Kia |
$ |
24,844 |
$ |
25,175 |
$ |
24,850 |
-1.3 |
% |
0.0 |
% |
Nissan |
$ |
29,012 |
$ |
29,099 |
$ |
29,186 |
-0.3 |
% |
-0.6 |
% |
Subaru |
$ |
30,357 |
$ |
29,612 |
$ |
30,249 |
2.5 |
% |
0.4 |
% |
Toyota |
$ |
34,321 |
$ |
33,303 |
$ |
34,458 |
3.1 |
% |
-0.4 |
% |
Volkswagen Group |
$ |
40,197 |
$ |
39,465 |
$ |
39,262 |
1.9 |
% |
2.4 |
% |
Industry |
$ |
36,239 |
$ |
35,067 |
$ |
36,468 |
3.3 |
% |
-0.6 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Incentive Spending
Manufacturer |
Jul 2020 Forecast |
Jul 2019 Actual |
Jun 2020 Actual |
YOY |
|
MOM |
|
BMW |
$ |
5,473 |
$ |
6,023 |
$ |
5,862 |
-9.1 |
% |
-6.6 |
% |
Daimler |
$ |
6,243 |
$ |
5,383 |
$ |
5,675 |
16.0 |
% |
10.0 |
% |
FCA |
$ |
4,773 |
$ |
4,840 |
$ |
5,010 |
-1.4 |
% |
-4.7 |
% |
Ford |
$ |
4,196 |
$ |
4,615 |
$ |
4,312 |
-9.1 |
% |
-2.7 |
% |
GM |
$ |
5,249 |
$ |
5,098 |
$ |
5,682 |
3.0 |
% |
-7.6 |
% |
Honda |
$ |
2,491 |
$ |
1,995 |
$ |
2,639 |
24.9 |
% |
-5.6 |
% |
Hyundai |
$ |
2,447 |
$ |
2,724 |
$ |
2,509 |
-10.2 |
% |
-2.5 |
% |
Kia |
$ |
3,609 |
$ |
3,541 |
$ |
3,779 |
1.9 |
% |
-4.5 |
% |
Nissan |
$ |
4,517 |
$ |
3,924 |
$ |
4,842 |
15.1 |
% |
-6.7 |
% |
Subaru |
$ |
1,773 |
$ |
1,454 |
$ |
1,747 |
22.0 |
% |
1.5 |
% |
Toyota |
$ |
2,549 |
$ |
2,434 |
$ |
2,700 |
4.7 |
% |
-5.6 |
% |
Volkswagen Group |
$ |
3,813 |
$ |
3,494 |
$ |
4,340 |
9.1 |
% |
-12.1 |
% |
Industry |
$ |
3,813 |
$ |
3,711 |
$ |
4,076 |
2.8 |
% |
-6.5 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Incentives as a Percentage of Average Transaction Price
(ATP)
Manufacturer |
Jul 2020 Forecast |
|
Jul 2019 Actual |
|
Jun 2020 Actual |
|
YOY |
|
MOM |
|
BMW |
9.4 |
% |
10.6 |
% |
10.0 |
% |
-11.4 |
% |
-5.7 |
% |
Daimler |
10.2 |
% |
9.4 |
% |
9.5 |
% |
8.5 |
% |
7.7 |
% |
FCA |
11.5 |
% |
12.2 |
% |
12.1 |
% |
-5.0 |
% |
-4.3 |
% |
Ford |
9.6 |
% |
11.6 |
% |
9.9 |
% |
-17.2 |
% |
-3.2 |
% |
GM |
12.9 |
% |
12.7 |
% |
14.3 |
% |
1.2 |
% |
-10.0 |
% |
Honda |
8.3 |
% |
6.8 |
% |
8.7 |
% |
21.4 |
% |
-5.3 |
% |
Hyundai |
8.5 |
% |
10.5 |
% |
8.7 |
% |
-19.0 |
% |
-2.6 |
% |
Kia |
14.5 |
% |
14.1 |
% |
15.2 |
% |
3.3 |
% |
-4.5 |
% |
Nissan |
15.6 |
% |
13.5 |
% |
16.6 |
% |
15.5 |
% |
-6.2 |
% |
Subaru |
5.8 |
% |
4.9 |
% |
5.8 |
% |
19.0 |
% |
1.1 |
% |
Toyota |
7.4 |
% |
7.3 |
% |
7.8 |
% |
1.6 |
% |
-5.2 |
% |
Volkswagen Group |
9.5 |
% |
8.9 |
% |
11.1 |
% |
7.2 |
% |
-14.2 |
% |
Industry |
10.5 |
% |
10.6 |
% |
11.2 |
% |
-0.6 |
% |
-5.9 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Retail Health Index
RHI measures the changes in retail market share
relative to changes in incentive spending and transaction price to
gauge whether OEMs are "buying" retail share through increased
incentives, or whether share increases are largely
demand-driven. An OEM with a positive RHI score is
demonstrating a healthy balance of incentive spend relative to
market share, either by holding incentive spending flat and
increasing share or by increasing incentives with a higher positive
increase in retail share.
Jul 2020
Forecast |
YOY Change |
MOM Change |
BMW |
-0.6 |
% |
-2.4 |
% |
Daimler |
-2.2 |
% |
-2.8 |
% |
FCA |
0.6 |
% |
0.2 |
% |
Ford |
1.1 |
% |
-0.6 |
% |
GM |
-0.9 |
% |
1.1 |
% |
Honda |
-1.4 |
% |
0.4 |
% |
Hyundai |
2.6 |
% |
0.3 |
% |
Kia |
0.4 |
% |
0.7 |
% |
Nissan |
-2.6 |
% |
1.3 |
% |
Subaru |
-0.8 |
% |
0.2 |
% |
Toyota |
-0.6 |
% |
1.6 |
% |
Volkswagen |
0.0 |
% |
2.1 |
% |
Mainstream |
|
|
Jul 2020 Forecast |
YOY Change |
MOM Change |
Buick |
2.1 |
% |
5.0 |
% |
Chevrolet |
-2.4 |
% |
0.4 |
% |
Chrysler |
2.2 |
% |
-1.0 |
% |
Dodge |
0.1 |
% |
-0.2 |
% |
Ford |
1.1 |
% |
-0.8 |
% |
GMC |
1.2 |
% |
1.9 |
% |
Honda |
-1.3 |
% |
0.2 |
% |
Hyundai |
2.6 |
% |
0.3 |
% |
Jeep |
-1.2 |
% |
0.1 |
% |
Kia |
0.4 |
% |
0.7 |
% |
Mazda |
-0.2 |
% |
2.7 |
% |
Mitsubishi |
2.5 |
% |
4.5 |
% |
Nissan |
-2.6 |
% |
1.5 |
% |
Ram |
3.7 |
% |
0.8 |
% |
Subaru |
-0.8 |
% |
0.2 |
% |
Toyota |
-0.5 |
% |
1.5 |
% |
Volkswagen |
1.5 |
% |
2.8 |
% |
Luxury |
|
|
Jul 2020 Forecast |
YOY Change |
MOM Change |
Acura |
-2.0 |
% |
2.2 |
% |
Audi |
-2.9 |
% |
0.8 |
% |
BMW |
-0.7 |
% |
-2.8 |
% |
Cadillac |
4.7 |
% |
1.3 |
% |
INFINITI |
-2.3 |
% |
-0.7 |
% |
Land Rover |
-3.5 |
% |
0.1 |
% |
Lexus |
-1.2 |
% |
2.1 |
% |
Lincoln |
2.0 |
% |
1.4 |
% |
Mercedes-Benz |
-2.2 |
% |
-2.8 |
% |
Porsche |
-1.1 |
% |
-0.5 |
% |
Volvo |
-0.6 |
% |
0.6 |
% |
|
|
|
|
|
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis
of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of
TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)
About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California,
ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value
projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing
nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG
provides auto industry and financial services clients with market
industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle
portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned
subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that
provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people
paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for
all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in
Canada since 1981.
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that
enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of
Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized
and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the
purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will
find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market
context on new and used cars -- all with a clear view of what's a
great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them
to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief
that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great
car buying experience. As part of our
marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over
250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, and American
Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage
with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and
drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa
Monica, California, with offices in Austin,
Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and
follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media
line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) |
Email: pr@truecar.com
TrueCar and ALG PR Contact:Shadee
Malekafzalishadee@truecar.com424.258.8694
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