ALG Forecasts Average New Vehicle Transaction Price Up 3.2% for June 2020
2020年7月1日 - 10:57PM
ALG, Inc., a subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc. and the industry benchmark
for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects
average transaction prices (ATP) to be up 3.2% or $1,117 from a
year ago but down 0.2% or $88 from May 2020.
“Average transactions prices continue to tick up year-over-year,
but we are seeing signs of decline and expect a small dip in
average transaction price month-over-month as automakers slowly
pull back from zero percentage financing over 84 months that helped
spur demand for higher price models and trim levels,”
said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst for ALG, a subsidiary
of TrueCar.
“While incentives are still up year-over-year, the aggressive
incentives that came out fast and furiously in April and May to
help alleviate sales pains are beginning to soften due to low
inventory and assembly plants that are still not back to full
production,” added Lyman. “Retail sales over the Fourth of
July holiday weekend will be the next big test of industry’s
strength and resiliency and will be a litmus test for automakers in
deciding to further pull back on incentives.”
ALG projects that U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach
more than $39.9 billion for June 2020, down 25% (based on a
non-adjusted daily selling rate) from a year ago and down 1.4% from
last month.
“Due to seasonality, we typically see June new vehicle sales
come in five to seven percent lower than May, so the fact that we
are basically at parity month-over-month is actually demonstrating
growth,” said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM and Affinity Partner
Analytics for TrueCar. “That being said, we do not believe that
‘normal seasonality’ will probably apply for the rest of the year,
especially with tax season being deferred to July.”
June 2020 forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by
volume. For additional data visit the ALG
Newsroom.
Average Transaction Price (ATP)
Manufacturer |
Jun 2020 Forecast |
Jun 2019 Actual |
May 2020 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$59,654 |
$57,910 |
$60,055 |
3.0% |
-0.7% |
Daimler |
$59,231 |
$58,061 |
$60,116 |
2.0% |
-1.5% |
FCA |
$41,924 |
$40,221 |
$42,373 |
4.2% |
-1.1% |
Ford |
$43,669 |
$38,667 |
$43,036 |
12.9% |
1.5% |
GM |
$39,961 |
$40,162 |
$40,392 |
-0.5% |
-1.1% |
Honda |
$30,036 |
$28,981 |
$29,738 |
3.6% |
1.0% |
Hyundai |
$28,814 |
$23,975 |
$28,294 |
20.2% |
1.8% |
Kia |
$24,896 |
$25,575 |
$24,936 |
-2.7% |
-0.2% |
Nissan |
$29,457 |
$28,631 |
$29,268 |
2.9% |
0.6% |
Subaru |
$30,196 |
$29,704 |
$30,559 |
1.7% |
-1.2% |
Toyota |
$34,411 |
$33,214 |
$34,260 |
3.6% |
0.4% |
Volkswagen Group |
$40,744 |
$41,623 |
$40,853 |
-2.1% |
-0.3% |
Industry |
$36,332 |
$35,215 |
$36,420 |
3.2% |
-0.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Incentive Spending
Manufacturer |
Jun 2020 Forecast |
Jun 2019 Actual |
May 2020 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$6,117 |
$5,756 |
$6,074 |
6.3% |
0.7% |
Daimler |
$6,614 |
$5,294 |
$7,289 |
24.9% |
-9.3% |
FCA |
$5,434 |
$4,621 |
$5,408 |
17.6% |
0.5% |
Ford |
$4,138 |
$4,513 |
$4,352 |
-8.3% |
-4.9% |
GM |
$5,685 |
$5,140 |
$5,833 |
10.6% |
-2.5% |
Honda |
$2,952 |
$2,052 |
$2,819 |
43.8% |
4.7% |
Hyundai |
$2,571 |
$2,859 |
$2,730 |
-10.1% |
-5.8% |
Kia |
$3,827 |
$3,574 |
$4,016 |
7.1% |
-4.7% |
Nissan |
$4,642 |
$4,020 |
$4,781 |
15.5% |
-2.9% |
Subaru |
$1,737 |
$1,528 |
$1,765 |
13.7% |
-1.6% |
Toyota |
$2,746 |
$2,436 |
$2,453 |
12.7% |
11.9% |
Volkswagen Group |
$4,378 |
$3,426 |
$4,828 |
27.8% |
-9.3% |
Industry |
$4,121 |
$3,773 |
$4,142 |
9.2% |
-0.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Incentives as a Percentage of Average Transaction Price
(ATP)
Manufacturer |
Jun 2020 Forecast |
Jun 2019 Actual |
May 2020 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
10.3% |
9.9% |
10.1% |
3.2% |
1.4% |
Daimler |
11.2% |
9.1% |
12.1% |
22.5% |
-7.9% |
FCA |
13.0% |
11.5% |
12.8% |
12.8% |
1.6% |
Ford |
9.5% |
11.7% |
10.1% |
-18.8% |
-6.3% |
GM |
14.2% |
12.8% |
14.4% |
11.2% |
-1.5% |
Honda |
9.8% |
7.1% |
9.5% |
38.8% |
3.7% |
Hyundai |
8.9% |
11.9% |
9.6% |
-25.2% |
-7.5% |
Kia |
15.4% |
14.0% |
16.1% |
10.0% |
-4.6% |
Nissan |
15.8% |
14.0% |
16.3% |
12.2% |
-3.5% |
Subaru |
5.8% |
5.1% |
5.8% |
11.8% |
-0.4% |
Toyota |
8.0% |
7.3% |
7.2% |
8.8% |
11.4% |
Volkswagen Group |
10.7% |
8.2% |
11.8% |
30.6% |
-9.1% |
Industry |
11.3% |
10.7% |
11.4% |
5.8% |
-0.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Retail Health Index
RHI measures the changes in retail market share
relative to changes in incentive spending and transaction price to
gauge whether OEMs are "buying" retail share through increased
incentives, or whether share increases are largely
demand-driven. An OEM with a positive RHI score is
demonstrating a healthy balance of incentive spend relative to
market share, either by holding incentive spending flat and
increasing share or by increasing incentives with a higher positive
increase in retail share.
RHI, Top 12 Manufacturers |
|
|
June 2020 Forecast |
YOY Change |
MOM Change |
BMW |
0.8% |
4.2% |
Daimler |
-4.0% |
-1.4% |
FCA |
-2.0% |
-0.2% |
Ford |
1.9% |
-0.4% |
GM |
-1.6% |
0.7% |
Honda |
-3.1% |
-1.2% |
Hyundai |
4.1% |
1.1% |
Kia |
-0.9% |
1.3% |
Nissan |
-2.6% |
1.0% |
Subaru |
0.3% |
0.9% |
Toyota |
-1.0% |
-2.0% |
Volkswagen |
-0.9% |
2.5% |
|
|
|
Mainstream |
|
|
June 2020 Forecast |
YOY Change |
MOM Change |
Buick |
-2.4% |
-0.3% |
Chevrolet |
-2.0% |
0.9% |
Chrysler |
-3.0% |
-1.8% |
Dodge |
0.0% |
-0.5% |
Ford |
1.9% |
-0.4% |
GMC |
-1.5% |
-0.5% |
Honda |
-3.0% |
-1.0% |
Hyundai |
4.1% |
1.1% |
Jeep |
-2.5% |
-0.8% |
Kia |
-0.9% |
1.3% |
Mazda |
-2.0% |
-0.6% |
Mitsubishi |
-1.0% |
0.3% |
Nissan |
-2.7% |
1.1% |
Ram |
-2.2% |
1.0% |
Subaru |
0.3% |
0.9% |
Toyota |
-1.2% |
-1.9% |
Volkswagen |
-0.6% |
1.7% |
Luxury |
|
|
June 2020 Forecast |
YOY Change |
MOM Change |
Acura |
-3.4% |
-2.4% |
Audi |
-1.5% |
3.7% |
BMW |
0.8% |
4.4% |
Cadillac |
3.5% |
3.5% |
INFINITI |
-1.0% |
-0.1% |
Land Rover |
-2.5% |
0.8% |
Lexus |
0.4% |
-2.3% |
Lincoln |
1.8% |
1.0% |
Mercedes-Benz |
-4.0% |
-1.4% |
Porsche |
-0.7% |
0.1% |
Volvo |
-2.4% |
-2.4% |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis
of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of
TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)
About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California,
ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value
projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing
nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG
provides auto industry and financial services clients with market
industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle
portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned
subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that
provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people
paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for
all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in
Canada since 1981.
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that
enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of
Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized
and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the
purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will
find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market
context on new and used cars -- all with a clear view of what's a
great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them
to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief
that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great
car buying experience. As part of our
marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over
250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, and American
Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage
with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and
drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa
Monica, California, with offices in Austin,
Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email: pr@truecar.com
TrueCar and ALG PR Contact:
Shadee Malekafzali
shadee@truecar.com
424.258.8694
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