ALG Forecasts Average New Vehicle Transaction Price Up 4.6% Year-Over-Year for May 2020 Driven by 0% Interest Rate Offers
2020年6月1日 - 10:00PM
ALG, Inc., a subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc. and the industry benchmark
for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects
average transaction prices (ATP) to be up 4.6% or $1,607 from a
year ago but down -1.7% or $639 from April 2020.
“Every brand, with the exception of Kia, has increased their
average transaction price year-over-year in May mainly attributed
to ongoing 0% interest rates. Kia is down likely due to lower
inventory levels on their popular Telluride model, which carries
one of the highest MSRPs in their lineup,” said Eric Lyman, Chief
Industry Analyst at ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar.
“It’s important to note that while average transaction prices
have increased year-over-year, they are down month-over-month,”
added Lyman. “We can expect a trend of lower inventory on popular
models across automakers as production stoppages and higher than
expected demand are taking shape based on geography. As a result,
we expect automakers to continue to not only pull back, but also
shift their incentive strategies from nationally based to
regionally and locally based in order to offset those supply
shortages. We expect the highly incentivized and in-demand SUVs and
trucks to be affected more than other
segments.”
ALG projects that U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach
more than $39.4 billion for May 2020, down 29% (based on a
non-adjusted daily selling rate) from a year ago and up 49% from
last month.
“Ford and Hyundai have seen the biggest gains in average
transaction price year-over-year with their aggressive and ongoing
incentives,” said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM and Affinity
Partner Analytics for TrueCar.
“For Ford, the combination of discontinuation of sedans as well
as strong performance by the new Explorer are leading to higher
transaction prices year-over-year for the brand overall,” said
Woolard. “Meanwhile, Hyundai has shown both strength in sedans,
especially with the all-new Sonata, as well as growth at the top of
their product line with the Palisade. These new products as
well as strong performance with financing offers that are
resonating with today's shoppers have resulted in strong
performance year-over-year in average transaction prices."
“On the Retail Health Index, which measures automaker brand
health on a month-to-month basis, the brands that had the biggest
declines in March and April are springing back this month. Luxury
automakers such as Audi and BMW are making a comeback month over
month as high-lease volume parts of the country are easing stay at
home restrictions,” added Woolard.
May 2020 forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by
volume. For additional data visit the ALG
Newsroom.
Average Transaction Price (ATP)
Manufacturer |
May 2020 Forecast |
May 2019 Actual |
Apr 2020 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$59,794 |
$58,544 |
$59,169 |
2.1% |
1.1% |
Daimler |
$61,176 |
$58,232 |
$60,768 |
5.1% |
0.7% |
FCA |
$43,154 |
$40,085 |
$43,162 |
7.7% |
0.0% |
Ford |
$43,267 |
$38,526 |
$42,996 |
12.3% |
0.6% |
GM |
$41,031 |
$40,609 |
$41,666 |
1.0% |
-1.5% |
Honda |
$29,536 |
$28,752 |
$29,683 |
2.7% |
-0.5% |
Hyundai |
$28,532 |
$24,391 |
$27,586 |
17.0% |
3.4% |
Kia |
$25,214 |
$25,638 |
$25,718 |
-1.7% |
-2.0% |
Nissan |
$29,956 |
$29,379 |
$30,002 |
2.0% |
-0.2% |
Subaru |
$30,495 |
$29,821 |
$31,154 |
2.3% |
-2.1% |
Toyota |
$33,913 |
$32,361 |
$33,941 |
4.8% |
-0.1% |
Volkswagen Group |
$39,108 |
$38,877 |
$39,644 |
0.6% |
-1.4% |
Industry |
$36,511 |
$34,903 |
$37,150 |
4.6% |
-1.7% |
Incentive Spending
Manufacturer |
May 2020 Forecast |
May 2019 Actual |
Apr 2020 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$6,330 |
$5,755 |
$6,031 |
10.0% |
5.0% |
Daimler |
$7,470 |
$5,301 |
$7,289 |
40.9% |
2.5% |
FCA |
$5,907 |
$4,439 |
$5,622 |
33.1% |
5.1% |
Ford |
$5,022 |
$4,500 |
$4,321 |
11.6% |
16.2% |
GM |
$6,374 |
$5,100 |
$5,809 |
25.0% |
9.7% |
Honda |
$3,039 |
$2,063 |
$2,825 |
47.3% |
7.6% |
Hyundai |
$3,025 |
$2,883 |
$2,731 |
4.9% |
10.8% |
Kia |
$4,388 |
$3,574 |
$4,016 |
22.8% |
9.3% |
Nissan |
$5,386 |
$4,017 |
$4,774 |
34.1% |
12.8% |
Subaru |
$1,848 |
$1,528 |
$1,765 |
21.0% |
4.7% |
Toyota |
$2,753 |
$2,424 |
$2,419 |
13.6% |
13.8% |
Volkswagen Group |
$4,510 |
$3,397 |
$4,480 |
32.8% |
0.7% |
Industry |
$4,526 |
$3,732 |
$4,297 |
21.3% |
5.3% |
Incentives as a Percentage of Average Transaction Price
(ATP)
Manufacturer |
May 2020 Forecast |
May 2019 Actual |
Apr 2020 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
10.6% |
9.8% |
10.2% |
7.7% |
3.9% |
Daimler |
12.2% |
9.1% |
12.0% |
34.1% |
1.8% |
FCA |
13.7% |
11.1% |
13.0% |
23.6% |
5.1% |
Ford |
11.6% |
11.7% |
10.1% |
-0.6% |
15.5% |
GM |
15.5% |
12.6% |
13.9% |
23.7% |
11.4% |
Honda |
10.3% |
7.2% |
9.5% |
43.4% |
8.1% |
Hyundai |
10.6% |
11.8% |
9.9% |
-10.3% |
7.1% |
Kia |
17.4% |
13.9% |
15.6% |
24.8% |
11.4% |
Nissan |
18.0% |
13.7% |
15.9% |
31.5% |
13.0% |
Subaru |
6.1% |
5.1% |
5.7% |
18.3% |
7.0% |
Toyota |
8.1% |
7.5% |
7.1% |
8.4% |
13.9% |
Volkswagen Group |
11.5% |
8.7% |
11.3% |
32.0% |
2.1% |
Industry |
12.4% |
10.7% |
11.6% |
15.9% |
7.2% |
Retail Health Index
RHI measures the changes in retail market share
relative to changes in incentive spending and transaction price to
gauge whether OEMs are "buying" retail share through increased
incentives, or whether share increases are largely
demand-driven. An OEM with a positive RHI score is
demonstrating a healthy balance of incentive spend relative to
market share, either by holding incentive spending flat and
increasing share or by increasing incentives with a higher positive
increase in retail share.
RHI, Top 12 Manufacturers |
|
|
Mat 2020 Forecast |
YOY Change |
MOM Change |
BMW |
-2.5% |
2.0% |
Daimler |
-4.1% |
-1.5% |
FCA |
-2.7% |
-1.6% |
Ford |
0.0% |
-4.3% |
GM |
-3.2% |
-3.3% |
Honda |
-3.4% |
1.6% |
Hyundai |
1.6% |
0.1% |
Kia |
-3.3% |
-2.1% |
Nissan |
-5.5% |
-2.1% |
Subaru |
-1.2% |
-0.6% |
Toyota |
0.2% |
3.0% |
Volkswagen |
-1.8% |
1.1% |
Mainstream |
|
|
May 2020 Forecast |
YOY Change |
MOM Change |
Buick |
-3.4% |
-1.8% |
Chevrolet |
-4.2% |
-4.2% |
Chrysler |
0.8% |
2.1% |
Dodge |
0.1% |
-0.9% |
Ford |
0.1% |
-4.4% |
GMC |
-1.0% |
-1.6% |
Honda |
-3.3% |
1.9% |
Hyundai |
1.5% |
0.1% |
Jeep |
-3.3% |
-0.5% |
Kia |
-3.3% |
-2.1% |
Mazda |
-2.5% |
-0.4% |
Mitsubishi |
-3.2% |
-0.7% |
Nissan |
-5.9% |
-2.1% |
Ram |
-3.1% |
-3.7% |
Subaru |
-1.2% |
-0.6% |
Toyota |
0.5% |
3.6% |
Volkswagen |
-0.8% |
0.7% |
Luxury |
|
|
Apr 2020 Forecast |
YOY Change |
MOM Change |
Acura |
-3.8% |
-1.4% |
Audi |
-4.2% |
1.9% |
BMW |
-2.5% |
2.5% |
Cadillac |
-0.2% |
-0.8% |
INFINITI |
-2.3% |
-1.7% |
Land Rover |
-2.2% |
1.2% |
Lexus |
-2.6% |
-3.4% |
Lincoln |
-2.4% |
-4.0% |
Mercedes-Benz |
-4.1% |
-1.5% |
Porsche |
0.4% |
0.9% |
Volvo |
-2.5% |
-0.6% |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis
of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of
TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)
About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California,
ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value
projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing
nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG
provides auto industry and financial services clients with market
industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle
portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned
subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that
provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people
paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for
all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in
Canada since 1981.
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that
enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of
Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized
and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the
purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will
find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market
context on new and used cars -- all with a clear view of what's a
great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them
to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief
that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great
car buying experience. As part of our
marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over
250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, and American
Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage
with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and
drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa
Monica, California, with offices in Austin,
Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and
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line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) |
Email: pr@truecar.com
TrueCar and ALG PR Contact:Shadee
Malekafzalishadee@truecar.com424.258.8694
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