ALG Forecasts Average New Vehicle Transaction Price Up 5.7% Year Over Year Fueled by 0% Interest Rates and Longer Loan Term ...
2020年5月1日 - 10:00PM
ALG, Inc., a subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc. and the industry benchmark
for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects
average transaction prices (ATP) to be up 5.7% or $1,986 from a
year ago and up 2.0% or $713 from March 2020.
“Despite our expectation that retail sales volume will be cut in
half in April due to the impact from COVID-19, average transaction
prices continued their upward trajectory, hitting record highs this
month,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst for ALG, a
subsidiary of TrueCar. “This is primarily due to the enticing zero
percent interest rates being offered by automakers offsetting any
model or trim concessions car buyers would be forced to make
otherwise.”
“These loans have been particularly popular with domestic truck
shoppers,” added Lyman. “U.S. manufacturers, such as Ford and GM,
and their captive finance companies were one of the first to launch
zero percent interest rates on 84-month loans and those brands are
seeing some of the sharpest upticks in average transaction price
year-over-year. That said, Hyundai had the biggest year-over-year
gain in average transaction price, with a 12.8% increase. This is
mainly due to the redesigned Sonata and the widely popular,
three-row, Palisade.”
ALG projects that U.S. revenue from new vehicle sales will reach
more than $23.6 billion for April 2020, down 49.4% (based on a
non-adjusted daily selling rate) from a year ago and down 34.3%
from last month.
“Incentives are expected to be up nearly 20% year-over-year for
April as automakers look to provide more support and relief for car
buyers” said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM and Affinity Partner
Analytics at TrueCar. “While cash incentives are up as well, we’ve
observed a shift in incentives toward deeper finance support since
mid-March when COVID-19 began to impact personal and economic
activity.”
April 2020 forecasts for the 12 largest manufacturers by
volume: (Adjusted for same selling days as April 2019.)
For additional data visit the ALG
Newsroom.
Average Transaction Price (ATP)
Manufacturer |
Apr 2020 Forecast |
Apr 2019 Actual |
Mar 2020 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$59,117 |
$57,537 |
$59,031 |
2.7% |
0.1% |
Daimler |
$61,420 |
$59,058 |
$59,801 |
4.0% |
2.7% |
FCA |
$44,442 |
$41,005 |
$42,888 |
8.4% |
3.6% |
Ford |
$42,867 |
$38,802 |
$42,574 |
10.5% |
0.7% |
GM |
$41,926 |
$40,306 |
$40,852 |
4.0% |
2.6% |
Honda |
$29,377 |
$28,858 |
$29,068 |
1.8% |
1.1% |
Hyundai |
$27,353 |
$24,252 |
$27,671 |
12.8% |
-1.1% |
Kia |
$25,930 |
$25,734 |
$26,444 |
0.8% |
-1.9% |
Nissan |
$30,074 |
$28,936 |
$28,988 |
3.9% |
3.7% |
Subaru |
$31,211 |
$29,770 |
$30,432 |
4.8% |
2.6% |
Toyota |
$33,948 |
$32,265 |
$33,062 |
5.2% |
2.7% |
Volkswagen Group |
$37,983 |
$36,835 |
$37,205 |
3.1% |
2.1% |
Industry |
$37,052 |
$35,066 |
$36,339 |
5.7% |
2.0% |
Incentive Spending
Manufacturer |
Apr 2020 Forecast |
Apr 2019 Actual |
Mar 2020 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
$6,488 |
$5,571 |
$6,318 |
16.5% |
2.7% |
Daimler |
$5,621 |
$5,168 |
$5,722 |
8.8% |
-1.8% |
FCA |
$5,184 |
$4,174 |
$4,956 |
24.2% |
4.6% |
Ford |
$4,082 |
$3,852 |
$4,018 |
6.0% |
1.6% |
GM |
$5,444 |
$4,708 |
$5,306 |
15.6% |
2.6% |
Honda |
$2,535 |
$1,898 |
$2,715 |
33.6% |
-6.6% |
Hyundai |
$2,455 |
$2,589 |
$2,204 |
-5.2% |
11.4% |
Kia |
$3,956 |
$3,273 |
$3,863 |
20.9% |
2.4% |
Nissan |
$4,993 |
$3,612 |
$4,697 |
38.2% |
6.3% |
Subaru |
$1,733 |
$1,461 |
$1,607 |
18.6% |
7.8% |
Toyota |
$2,551 |
$2,061 |
$2,659 |
23.7% |
-4.1% |
Volkswagen Group |
$4,439 |
$3,494 |
$4,502 |
27.1% |
-1.4% |
Industry |
$4,079 |
$3,406 |
$4,024 |
19.7% |
1.3% |
Incentives as a Percentage of Average Transaction Price
(ATP)
Manufacturer |
Apr 2020 Forecast |
Apr 2019 Actual |
Mar 2020 Actual |
YOY |
MOM |
BMW |
11.0% |
9.7% |
10.7% |
13.4% |
2.5% |
Daimler |
9.2% |
8.8% |
9.6% |
4.6% |
-4.4% |
FCA |
11.7% |
10.2% |
11.6% |
14.6% |
0.9% |
Ford |
9.5% |
9.9% |
9.4% |
-4.1% |
0.9% |
GM |
13.0% |
11.7% |
13.0% |
11.2% |
0.0% |
Honda |
8.6% |
6.6% |
9.3% |
31.2% |
-7.6% |
Hyundai |
9.0% |
10.7% |
8.0% |
-15.9% |
12.7% |
Kia |
15.3% |
12.7% |
14.6% |
20.0% |
4.4% |
Nissan |
16.6% |
12.5% |
16.2% |
33.0% |
2.4% |
Subaru |
5.6% |
4.9% |
5.3% |
13.1% |
5.1% |
Toyota |
7.5% |
6.4% |
8.0% |
17.6% |
-6.6% |
Volkswagen Group |
11.7% |
9.5% |
12.1% |
23.2% |
-3.4% |
Industry |
11.0% |
9.7% |
11.1% |
13.3% |
-0.6% |
Retail Health Index
RHI measures the changes in retail market share
relative to changes in incentive spending and transaction price to
gauge whether OEMs are "buying" retail share through increased
incentives, or whether share increases are largely demand-driven.
An OEM with a positive RHI score is demonstrating a healthy balance
of incentive spend relative to market share, either by holding
incentive spending flat and increasing share or by increasing
incentives with a higher positive increase in retail share.
RHI, Top 12 Manufacturers |
|
|
Apr 2020 Forecast |
YOY Change |
MOM Change |
BMW |
-3.5% |
-2.7% |
Daimler |
-1.3% |
1.1% |
FCA |
-0.6% |
2.6% |
Ford |
3.8% |
-2.2% |
GM |
0.6% |
2.4% |
Honda |
-4.4% |
-0.4% |
Hyundai |
1.7% |
-0.5% |
Kia |
-1.9% |
-0.8% |
Nissan |
-6.8% |
-2.4% |
Subaru |
-1.9% |
-0.5% |
Toyota |
-2.6% |
-1.2% |
Volkswagen |
-1.3% |
0.8% |
Mainstream |
|
|
Apr 2020 Forecast |
YOY Change |
MOM Change |
Buick |
-2.3% |
-0.8% |
Chevrolet |
1.2% |
3.2% |
Chrysler |
-0.8% |
-2.7% |
Dodge |
-1.4% |
-1.6% |
Ford |
3.9% |
-2.2% |
GMC |
-0.3% |
1.1% |
Honda |
-4.5% |
-0.6% |
Hyundai |
1.7% |
-0.5% |
Jeep |
-1.2% |
1.3% |
Kia |
-1.9% |
-0.8% |
Mazda |
-2.1% |
-0.6% |
Mitsubishi |
-2.4% |
0.9% |
Nissan |
-7.1% |
-2.5% |
Ram |
0.0% |
4.9% |
Subaru |
-1.9% |
-0.5% |
Toyota |
-2.6% |
-1.2% |
Volkswagen |
-0.8% |
0.1% |
Luxury |
|
|
Apr 2020 Forecast |
YOY Change |
MOM Change |
Acura |
-3.6% |
2.0% |
Audi |
-2.9% |
2.9% |
BMW |
-4.1% |
-3.3% |
Cadillac |
0.2% |
0.4% |
INFINITI |
-3.7% |
-1.1% |
Land Rover |
-2.1% |
-0.3% |
Lexus |
-2.2% |
-1.0% |
Lincoln |
0.9% |
-0.2% |
Mercedes-Benz |
-1.3% |
1.1% |
Porsche |
0.4% |
1.4% |
Volvo |
-3.1% |
-1.5% |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis
of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of
TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)
About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California,
ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value
projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing
nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG
provides auto industry and financial services clients with market
industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle
portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned
subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that
provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people
paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for
all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in
Canada since 1981.
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that
enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of
Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized
and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the
purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will
find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market
context on new and used cars -- all with a clear view of what's a
great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them
to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief
that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great
car buying experience. As part of our
marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over
250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, and American
Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage
with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and
drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa
Monica, California, with offices in Austin,
Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and
follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media
line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free)
Email: pr@truecar.com
TrueCar and ALG PR Contact:
Shadee Malekafzali
shadee@truecar.com
424.258.8694
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