TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts New Vehicle Auto Sales for April 2020
2020年4月23日 - 10:00PM
ALG, Inc., a subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc. and the industry benchmark
for determining the future resale value of a vehicle, projects
total new vehicle sales will reach 638,092 units in April 2020,
down 54% from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of
selling days. This month’s seasonally adjusted annualized rate
(SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an estimated 7.7 million
units. Excluding fleet sales, ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of
new cars and light trucks to be 577,280units, a decrease of 49%
from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
“Like most industries in the U.S., the automotive
industry has also suffered significantly from the Coronavirus
pandemic,” said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst at ALG.
“By the beginning of April, a majority of the states had
enacted ‘shelter at home’ orders along with closures of many
businesses in an effort to limit the spread of the virus.
Public health concerns mixed with job losses and economic
decline led to a dramatic drop in automotive sales.”
“Although most automakers saw big declines in
sales, the domestic brands such as GM and Ford had a smaller
percentage of loss than imported brands when compared
year-over-year. Some of that is attributable to the generous
incentive offerings from the domestics, and some of it is due to
the higher mix of imports in the states that were initially hit
hardest compared with the states that were impacted later.”
“As ‘shelter at home’ orders continue during the
month of April, consumers and dealers have shifted their behavior
and leaned heavily into an online approach to car buying,” added
Lyman. “In TrueCar’s own research, two-thirds of shoppers say they
would be more likely to shop with a dealership that offers the
components of TrueCar’s Buy from Home service,
which consists of vehicle sanitization, online paperwork, and
vehicle delivery.”
Additional Insights: (Forecast by
ALG)
- Total retail sales for April 2020 are expected to be down 49%
from a year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling
days.
- Fleet sales for April 2020 are expected to be down 77% from a
year ago when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
- Total SAAR is expected to decrease 53% from a year ago when
adjusted for the same number of selling days from 16.4 million
units to 7.7 million units.
- Used vehicle sales for April 2020 are expected to reach
1,086,494, down 71% from a year ago and down 60% from March
2020.
- The average interest rates on new vehicle loans is 6.4%, based
on TrueCar data.
“We are starting to see fleet sales significantly
decline. The relationships that automakers have with their partners
and how they are willing to amend those agreements will be critical
in fleet sales impact,” said Nick Woolard, Director of OEM and
Affinity Partner Analytics at TrueCar. “We expect that automakers
with commercial and government contracts will fare better than
those with daily rental contracts.”
ALG’s Revised COVID-19 2020 New Vehicle
Sales Forecast:
- ALG Provides Third Revision of 2020
New Vehicle Sales Forecast Scenarios Based on Latest Impact of
COVID-19
April 2020 forecasts for the 13 largest
manufacturers by volume: (Adjusted for same selling days
as April 2019.) For additional data visit
the ALG Newsroom.
Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
Apr 2020 Forecast |
Apr 2019 Actual |
Mar 2020 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
8,213 |
26,502 |
16,301 |
-69.0 |
% |
-70.2 |
% |
-49.6 |
% |
-51.6 |
% |
Daimler |
8,693 |
25,716 |
18,571 |
-66.2 |
% |
-67.5 |
% |
-53.2 |
% |
-55.0 |
% |
FCA |
72,303 |
172,900 |
127,596 |
-58.2 |
% |
-59.8 |
% |
-43.3 |
% |
-45.5 |
% |
Ford |
102,447 |
194,219 |
169,012 |
-47.3 |
% |
-49.3 |
% |
-39.4 |
% |
-41.7 |
% |
GM |
141,874 |
233,682 |
169,952 |
-39.3 |
% |
-41.6 |
% |
-16.5 |
% |
-19.7 |
% |
Honda |
55,249 |
125,775 |
77,153 |
-56.1 |
% |
-57.8 |
% |
-28.4 |
% |
-31.1 |
% |
Hyundai |
28,655 |
57,025 |
36,087 |
-49.8 |
% |
-51.7 |
% |
-20.6 |
% |
-23.6 |
% |
Kia |
30,538 |
51,385 |
45,413 |
-40.6 |
% |
-42.9 |
% |
-32.8 |
% |
-35.3 |
% |
Nissan |
28,814 |
95,698 |
77,655 |
-69.9 |
% |
-71.0 |
% |
-62.9 |
% |
-64.3 |
% |
Subaru |
24,500 |
57,288 |
32,611 |
-57.2 |
% |
-58.9 |
% |
-24.9 |
% |
-27.8 |
% |
Tesla |
3,816 |
10,600 |
13,400 |
-64.0 |
% |
-65.4 |
% |
-71.5 |
% |
-72.6 |
% |
Toyota |
86,603 |
183,866 |
133,198 |
-52.9 |
% |
-54.7 |
% |
-35.0 |
% |
-37.5 |
% |
Volkswagen Group |
28,391 |
51,748 |
33,780 |
-45.1 |
% |
-47.2 |
% |
-16.0 |
% |
-19.2 |
% |
Industry |
638,092 |
1,331,671 |
990,332 |
-52 |
% |
-53.9 |
% |
-35.6 |
% |
-38.0 |
% |
Retail Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
Apr 2020 Forecast |
Apr 2019 Actual |
Mar 2020 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
7,953 |
25,169 |
14,999 |
-68.4 |
% |
-69.6 |
% |
-47.0 |
% |
-49.0 |
% |
Daimler |
8,311 |
23,933 |
14,124 |
-65.3 |
% |
-66.6 |
% |
-41.2 |
% |
-43.4 |
% |
FCA |
70,555 |
126,433 |
61,066 |
-44.2 |
% |
-46.3 |
% |
15.5 |
% |
11.1 |
% |
Ford |
84,352 |
119,854 |
109,433 |
-29.6 |
% |
-32.3 |
% |
-22.9 |
% |
-25.9 |
% |
GM |
129,186 |
199,012 |
121,255 |
-35.1 |
% |
-37.6 |
% |
6.5 |
% |
2.4 |
% |
Honda |
54,891 |
124,415 |
69,672 |
-55.9 |
% |
-57.6 |
% |
-21.2 |
% |
-24.2 |
% |
Hyundai |
22,304 |
38,202 |
21,891 |
-41.6 |
% |
-43.9 |
% |
1.9 |
% |
-2.0 |
% |
Kia |
27,066 |
41,833 |
31,196 |
-35.3 |
% |
-37.8 |
% |
-13.2 |
% |
-16.6 |
% |
Nissan |
21,638 |
68,300 |
40,530 |
-68.3 |
% |
-69.5 |
% |
-46.6 |
% |
-48.7 |
% |
Subaru |
23,397 |
53,054 |
27,511 |
-55.9 |
% |
-57.6 |
% |
-15.0 |
% |
-18.2 |
% |
Tesla |
3,816 |
10,600 |
13,400 |
-64.0 |
% |
-65.4 |
% |
-71.5 |
% |
-72.6 |
% |
Toyota |
79,915 |
161,331 |
104,195 |
-50.5 |
% |
-52.4 |
% |
-23.3 |
% |
-26.3 |
% |
Volkswagen Group |
26,656 |
46,984 |
27,402 |
-43.3 |
% |
-45.4 |
% |
-2.7 |
% |
-6.5 |
% |
Industry |
577,280 |
1,080,950 |
686,966 |
-46.6 |
% |
-48.6 |
% |
-16.0 |
% |
-19.2 |
% |
Fleet Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
Apr 2020 Forecast |
Apr 2019 Actual |
Mar 2020 Actual |
YoY % Change |
YoY % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
MoM % Change |
MoM % Change (Daily Selling Rate) |
BMW |
260 |
1,333 |
1,302 |
-80.5 |
% |
-81.3 |
% |
-80.1 |
% |
-80.8 |
% |
Daimler |
382 |
1,783 |
4,447 |
-78.6 |
% |
-79.4 |
% |
-91.4 |
% |
-91.7 |
% |
FCA |
1,748 |
46,467 |
66,530 |
-96.2 |
% |
-96.4 |
% |
-97.4 |
% |
-97.5 |
% |
Ford |
18,095 |
74,365 |
59,579 |
-75.7 |
% |
-76.6 |
% |
-69.6 |
% |
-70.8 |
% |
GM |
12,688 |
34,670 |
48,697 |
-63.4 |
% |
-64.8 |
% |
-73.9 |
% |
-74.9 |
% |
Honda |
357 |
1,360 |
7,481 |
-73.7 |
% |
-74.7 |
% |
-95.2 |
% |
-95.4 |
% |
Hyundai |
6,351 |
18,823 |
14,196 |
-66.3 |
% |
-67.6 |
% |
-55.3 |
% |
-57.0 |
% |
Kia |
3,472 |
9,552 |
14,217 |
-63.7 |
% |
-65.0 |
% |
-75.6 |
% |
-76.5 |
% |
Nissan |
7,176 |
27,398 |
37,125 |
-73.8 |
% |
-74.8 |
% |
-80.7 |
% |
-81.4 |
% |
Subaru |
1,103 |
4,234 |
5,100 |
-73.9 |
% |
-75.0 |
% |
-78.4 |
% |
-79.2 |
% |
Tesla |
- |
- |
- |
- |
|
- |
|
- |
|
- |
|
Toyota |
6,687 |
22,535 |
29,003 |
-70.3 |
% |
-71.5 |
% |
-76.9 |
% |
-77.8 |
% |
Volkswagen Group |
1,736 |
4,764 |
6,378 |
-63.6 |
% |
-65.0 |
% |
-72.8 |
% |
-73.8 |
% |
Industry |
60,812 |
250,721 |
303,366 |
-75.7 |
% |
-76.7 |
% |
-80.0 |
% |
-80.7 |
% |
Fleet Penetration
Manufacturer |
Apr 2020 Forecast |
Apr 2019 Actual |
Mar 2020 Actual |
YoY % Change |
MoM % Change |
BMW |
3.2 |
% |
5.0 |
% |
8.0 |
% |
-37.2 |
% |
-60.4 |
% |
Daimler |
4.4 |
% |
6.9 |
% |
23.9 |
% |
-36.6 |
% |
-81.6 |
% |
FCA |
2.4 |
% |
26.9 |
% |
52.1 |
% |
-91.0 |
% |
-95.4 |
% |
Ford |
17.7 |
% |
38.3 |
% |
35.3 |
% |
-53.9 |
% |
-49.9 |
% |
GM |
8.9 |
% |
14.8 |
% |
28.7 |
% |
-39.7 |
% |
-68.8 |
% |
Honda |
0.6 |
% |
1.1 |
% |
9.7 |
% |
-40.2 |
% |
-93.3 |
% |
Hyundai |
22.2 |
% |
33.0 |
% |
39.3 |
% |
-32.9 |
% |
-43.7 |
% |
Kia |
11.4 |
% |
18.6 |
% |
31.3 |
% |
-38.8 |
% |
-63.7 |
% |
Nissan |
24.9 |
% |
28.6 |
% |
47.8 |
% |
-13.0 |
% |
-47.9 |
% |
Subaru |
4.5 |
% |
7.4 |
% |
15.6 |
% |
-39.1 |
% |
-71.2 |
% |
Tesla |
0.0 |
% |
0.0 |
% |
0.0 |
% |
|
|
Toyota |
7.7 |
% |
12.3 |
% |
21.8 |
% |
-37.0 |
% |
-64.5 |
% |
Volkswagen Group |
6.1 |
% |
9.2 |
% |
18.9 |
% |
-33.6 |
% |
-67.6 |
% |
Industry |
9.5 |
% |
18.8 |
% |
30.6 |
% |
-49.4 |
% |
-68.9 |
% |
Total Market Share
Manufacturer |
Apr 2020 Forecast |
Apr 2019 Actual |
Mar 2020 Actual |
BMW |
1.3 |
% |
2.0 |
% |
1.6 |
% |
Daimler |
1.4 |
% |
1.9 |
% |
1.9 |
% |
FCA |
11.3 |
% |
13.0 |
% |
12.9 |
% |
Ford |
16.1 |
% |
14.6 |
% |
17.1 |
% |
GM |
22.2 |
% |
17.5 |
% |
17.2 |
% |
Honda |
8.7 |
% |
9.4 |
% |
7.8 |
% |
Hyundai |
4.5 |
% |
4.3 |
% |
3.6 |
% |
Kia |
4.8 |
% |
3.9 |
% |
4.6 |
% |
Nissan |
4.5 |
% |
7.2 |
% |
7.8 |
% |
Subaru |
3.8 |
% |
4.3 |
% |
3.3 |
% |
Tesla |
0.6 |
% |
0.8 |
% |
1.4 |
% |
Toyota |
13.6 |
% |
13.8 |
% |
13.4 |
% |
Volkswagen Group |
4.4 |
% |
3.9 |
% |
3.4 |
% |
Retail Market Share
Manufacturer |
Apr 2020 Forecast |
Apr 2019 Actual |
Mar 2020 Actual |
BMW |
1.4 |
% |
2.3 |
% |
2.2 |
% |
Daimler |
1.4 |
% |
2.2 |
% |
2.1 |
% |
FCA |
12.2 |
% |
11.7 |
% |
8.9 |
% |
Ford |
14.6 |
% |
11.1 |
% |
15.9 |
% |
GM |
22.4 |
% |
18.4 |
% |
17.7 |
% |
Honda |
9.5 |
% |
11.5 |
% |
10.1 |
% |
Hyundai |
3.9 |
% |
3.5 |
% |
3.2 |
% |
Kia |
4.7 |
% |
3.9 |
% |
4.5 |
% |
Nissan |
3.7 |
% |
6.3 |
% |
5.9 |
% |
Subaru |
4.1 |
% |
4.9 |
% |
4.0 |
% |
Tesla |
0.7 |
% |
1.0 |
% |
2.0 |
% |
Toyota |
13.8 |
% |
14.9 |
% |
15.2 |
% |
Volkswagen Group |
4.6 |
% |
4.3 |
% |
4.0 |
% |
(Note: This forecast is based solely on ALG's analysis
of industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of
TrueCar, Inc.’s operations.)
About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in Santa Monica, California,
ALG is an industry authority on automotive residual value
projections in both the United States and Canada. By analyzing
nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG
provides auto industry and financial services clients with market
industry insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle
portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned
subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that
provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people
paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for
all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 55 years and in
Canada since 1981.
About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that
enables car buyers to connect to our nationwide network of
Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized
and efficient car buying experience as we seek to bring more of the
purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will
find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings and market
context on new and used cars -- all with a clear view of what's a
great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them
to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief
that truth, transparency and fairness are the foundation of a great
car buying experience. As part of our
marketplace, TrueCar powers car-buying programs for over
250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam’s Club, and American
Express. Nearly half of all new-car buyers engage
with TrueCar powered sites, where they buy smarter and
drive happier. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa
Monica, California, with offices in Austin,
Texas and Boston, Massachusetts.
For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and
follow us on Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media
line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) |
Email: pr@truecar.com
TrueCar and ALG PR Contact:
Shadee Malekafzali
shadee@truecar.com
424.258.8694
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