TrueCar’s ALG Forecasts New Auto Sales to Continue Modest Softening Amidst Rising Transaction Prices and Declining Incentiv...
2019年5月29日 - 1:00AM
TrueCar, Inc.’s (NASDAQ: TRUE) data and analytics subsidiary, ALG,
projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,548,322 units in May,
down 2.9% from a year ago. This month’s seasonally adjusted
annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle sales is an
estimated 16.9 million units for the month. Excluding fleet sales,
ALG expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to
be 1,234,218 units, a decrease of 3.4% from a year ago.
“Despite a 50-year low in the unemployment rate and a 15-year
high in consumer sentiment, the auto industry continues to face
weakening in year-over-year sales,” said Oliver Strauss, Chief
Economist for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “From a historical
perspective, however, 16.9 million SAAR is strong, especially
considering a declining incentive and rising average transaction
price environment.”
Additional Takeaways & Trends: (Forecasted
by ALG)
- Automaker average incentive spend has declined for the 9th
consecutive month compared to the same period a year ago and will
reach $3,359, down 10.1% or $377 dollars year-over-year, and down
1.4% or $47 from April 2019
- Average transaction price (ATP) continues its ascent, up 3% or
$1,005 year-over-year
- Incentives as a percentage of average transaction price are
expected to be 9.8%, down 12.7% from a year ago and down .6% from
April 2019; All automakers are expected to be down except Honda,
which will be up slightly ($3) year-over-year
- Kia and Hyundai are expected to score high amongst mainstream
competitors in brand strength this month according to ALG’s Retail
Health Index (RHI), driven largely by all-new or redesigned SUVs
such as the Kia Telluride, Hyundai Santa Fe and Kona
- BMW stood out this month in ALG’s brand strength metric as well
with high RHI scores amongst luxury brands which we believe is due
to the launch of the all-new BMW X7 which hit showrooms last
month
- Used vehicle sales for May are expected to reach 3,402,980,
down 1.5% year-over-year yet up 2.3% from April 2019.
“The few brands showing sales growth year-over-year in May are
doing so through new or redesigned SUV product,” said Eric Lyman,
Chief Analyst for ALG, a subsidiary of TrueCar. “This underscores
the importance of automaker timing around lifecycle stage and
product strategy that honed in on desirable segments in order to
meet the demands of today’s consumers.”
Retail Health Index (Forecast)
RHI measures the changes
in retail market share relative to
changes in incentive spending and transaction price to gauge
whether OEMs are "buying" retail share through increased
incentives, or whether share increases are largely
demand-driven. An OEM with a positive RHI score is
demonstrating a healthy balance of incentive spend relative to
market share, either by holding incentive spending flat and
increasing share or by increasing incentives with a higher positive
increase in retail share.
Photos accompanying this announcement are available at:
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May 2019 forecasts for the 13 largest manufacturers by
volume: (Tesla forecast included since March 2019.)
Total Unit Sales
Manufacturer |
May 2019 |
May 2018 |
YoY % Change |
BMW |
32,245 |
31,031 |
3.9% |
Daimler |
28,457 |
30,187 |
-5.7% |
FCA |
204,595 |
214,294 |
-4.5% |
Ford |
222,443 |
241,527 |
-7.9% |
GM |
258,614 |
264,895 |
-2.4% |
Honda |
151,279 |
153,069 |
-1.2% |
Hyundai |
66,253 |
64,980 |
2.0% |
Kia |
61,481 |
59,462 |
3.4% |
Nissan |
125,608 |
131,832 |
-4.7% |
Subaru |
59,846 |
60,146 |
-0.5% |
Tesla |
10,900 |
8,557 |
27.4% |
Toyota |
214,858 |
215,321 |
-0.2% |
Volkswagen Group |
54,879 |
55,853 |
-1.7% |
Industry |
1,548,322 |
1,594,715 |
-2.9% |
Incentive Spending (Per Unit)
Manufacturer |
May 2019 |
May
2018 |
YOY %
Change |
BMW |
$5,481 |
$5,583 |
-1.8% |
Daimler |
$5,212 |
$6,055 |
-13.9% |
FCA |
$4,157 |
$4,465 |
-6.9% |
Ford |
$3,867 |
$4,355 |
-11.2% |
GM |
$4,628 |
$5,330 |
-13.2% |
Honda |
$1,886 |
$1,883 |
0.2% |
Hyundai |
$2,562 |
$2,807 |
-8.7% |
Kia |
$3,269 |
$3,833 |
-14.7% |
Nissan |
$3,554 |
$3,665 |
-3.0% |
Subaru |
$1,451 |
$1,464 |
-0.9% |
Toyota |
$2,060 |
$2,222 |
-7.3% |
Volkswagen Group |
$3,516 |
$3,903 |
-9.9% |
Industry |
$3,359 |
$3,736 |
-10.1% |
Average Transaction Price
(ATP)
Manufacturer |
May 2019 |
May 2018 |
April 2019 |
YOY % change |
MOM % change |
BMW |
$56,533 |
$52,205 |
$55,335 |
8.3% |
2.2% |
Daimler |
$64,418 |
$60,752 |
$64,468 |
6.0% |
-0.1% |
FCA |
$36,259 |
$34,090 |
$35,637 |
6.4% |
1.7% |
Ford |
$39,183 |
$37,404 |
$38,692 |
4.8% |
1.3% |
GM |
$35,911 |
$34,768 |
$37,299 |
3.3% |
-3.7% |
Honda |
$28,072 |
$27,991 |
$28,655 |
0.3% |
-2.0% |
Hyundai |
$22,901 |
$22,701 |
$23,684 |
0.9% |
-3.3% |
Kia |
$23,915 |
$23,027 |
$22,770 |
3.9% |
5.0% |
Nissan |
$27,404 |
$27,736 |
$27,884 |
-1.2% |
-1.7% |
Subaru |
$29,305 |
$27,918 |
$29,237 |
5.0% |
0.2% |
Toyota |
$32,358 |
$32,309 |
$32,375 |
0.2% |
-0.1% |
Volkswagen Group |
$37,081 |
$36,289 |
$37,311 |
2.2% |
-0.6% |
Industry |
$34,105 |
$33,100 |
$34,385 |
3.0% |
-0.8% |
For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom.
(Note: This forecast is based solely on
TrueCar’s analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is
not a projection of the company’s operations.)
About TrueCarTrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a
digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing
transparency about what other people paid for their cars and
enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are
committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar
operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more
than 16,000 Certified Dealers also powers car-buying programs for
some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations,
including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Over
half of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during
their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica,
California, with offices in San Francisco and Austin, Texas. For
more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on
Facebook or Twitter. TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US
toll-free) | Email: pressinquiries@truecar.com
About ALGFounded in 1964 and headquartered in
Santa Monica, California, ALG is an industry authority on
automotive residual value projections in both the United States and
Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500 vehicle trims each year to assess
residual value, ALG provides auto industry and financial services
clients with market industry insights, residual value forecasts,
consulting and vehicle portfolio management and risk services. ALG
is a wholly-owned subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive
marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing transparency about
what other people paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing
residual values for all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over
50 years and in Canada since 1981.
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