SANTA MONICA, Calif.,
Feb. 22, 2019 /PRNewswire/
-- TrueCar, Inc.'s (NASDAQ: TRUE) data and analytics
subsidiary, ALG, projects total new vehicle sales will reach
1,268,141 units in February, down 2.6% from a year ago.
This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total
light vehicle sales is an estimated 16.6 million units for the
month. Excluding fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars
and light trucks should decrease 2.6% from a year ago to 1,001,149
units, yet up 9.8% from last month.
"The U.S. economy remains robust on many fronts, such as
unemployment rate and consumer confidence, keeping vehicle sales at
a healthy pace," said Oliver
Strauss, Chief Economist for TrueCar's ALG. "Record snow and
rainfall across the country, including the west coast, plus
anxieties over tax refund size and the potential for another
government shutdown contributed to the year-over-year decline."
Given the overall health of vehicle sales, ALG expects OEMs are
pulling back on incentives while maintaining retail market share.
Average incentive spending by automakers will reach an estimated
$3,653 per vehicle in February down
$30 or 0.8% from a year ago, and up
3.0% or $108 from January 2019.
ALG also assessed automaker brand health with its Retail Health
Index (RHI). RHI strips away the impact of price cuts to show which
OEMs are growing retail share due to increased consumer demand
versus which are "buying" share through higher
incentives.
"Hyundai and Volvo are validating their ALG Redesign of the Year
awards with strong performances expected in the Retail Health
Index, driven by the all new Santa Fe and S60 respectively," said
Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst
for TrueCar's ALG. "Both brands are in the midst of a product
renaissance showcasing stylish designs in new segments, especially
utilities, which continue to resonate with new vehicle
shoppers."
ALG also evaluates average transaction price (ATP) as an
indicator for its Retail Health Index. For February, ALG estimates
ATP for new light vehicles was $34,565, up 3.0% from a year ago while incentives
as a percentage of ATP was at 10.6% down 3.7% year-over-year.
Retail Health Index (Forecast)
RHI measures the changes in retail market
share relative to changes in incentive spending and transaction
price to gauge whether OEMs are "buying" retail share through
increased incentives, or whether share increases are largely
demand-driven. An OEM with a positive RHI score is
demonstrating a healthy balance of incentive spend relative to
market share, either by holding incentive spending flat and
increasing share or by increasing incentives with a higher positive
increase in retail share.
Forecasts for the
12 largest manufacturers by volume:
|
|
Total Unit
Sales
|
|
Manufacturer
|
Feb
2019
Forecast
|
Feb
2018
|
YoY %
Change
|
BMW
|
25,117
|
26,673
|
-5.8%
|
Daimler
|
25,675
|
27,894
|
-8.0%
|
FCA
|
164,528
|
166,834
|
-1.4%
|
Ford
|
188,215
|
193,362
|
-2.7%
|
GM
|
211,503
|
220,740
|
-4.2%
|
Honda
|
119,057
|
115,557
|
3.0%
|
Hyundai
|
44,456
|
44,732
|
-0.6%
|
Kia
|
39,373
|
40,672
|
-3.2%
|
Nissan
|
111,058
|
129,930
|
-14.5%
|
Subaru
|
48,570
|
47,249
|
2.8%
|
Toyota
|
175,290
|
182,195
|
-3.8%
|
Volkswagen
Group
|
45,252
|
46,769
|
-3.2%
|
Industry
|
1,268,141
|
1,302,128
|
-2.6%
|
Incentive
Spending
|
|
Manufacturer
|
Incentive per
Unit
Feb 2019 Forecast
|
Incentive per Unit
%
Change vs. Feb
2018
|
Incentive per Unit
%
Change vs. Jan 2019
|
BMW
|
$5,432
|
-4.2%
|
4.4%
|
Daimler
|
$6,031
|
26.6%
|
3.2%
|
FCA
|
$4,524
|
4.1%
|
3.7%
|
Ford
|
$4,139
|
1.7%
|
2.8%
|
GM
|
$4,538
|
-10.3%
|
1.8%
|
Honda
|
$2,420
|
34.9%
|
3.0%
|
Hyundai
|
$2,659
|
-0.9%
|
3.6%
|
Kia
|
$3,836
|
0.6%
|
3.4%
|
Nissan
|
$3,980
|
-4.3%
|
1.7%
|
Subaru
|
$1,353
|
10.9%
|
3.2%
|
Toyota
|
$2,464
|
0.4%
|
3.4%
|
Volkswagen
Group
|
$3,727
|
2.6%
|
4.8%
|
Industry
|
$3,653
|
-0.8%
|
3.0%
|
Average
Transaction Price (ATP)
|
|
Manufacturer
|
Feb 2019
Forecast
|
Feb
2018
|
Jan
2019
|
YOY %
change
|
MOM %
change
|
BMW
|
$56,394
|
$52,486
|
$55,206
|
7.4%
|
2.2%
|
Daimler
|
$65,901
|
$61,609
|
$62,182
|
7.0%
|
6.0%
|
FCA
|
$35,910
|
$34,406
|
$35,843
|
4.4%
|
0.2%
|
Ford
|
$38,482
|
$37,230
|
$38,781
|
3.4%
|
-0.8%
|
GM
|
$37,454
|
$36,192
|
$36,927
|
3.5%
|
1.4%
|
Honda
|
$28,576
|
$28,082
|
$28,336
|
1.8%
|
0.8%
|
Hyundai
|
$23,366
|
$22,818
|
$23,432
|
2.4%
|
-0.3%
|
Kia
|
$22,560
|
$23,163
|
$22,746
|
-2.6%
|
-0.8%
|
Nissan
|
$27,458
|
$27,766
|
$28,096
|
-1.1%
|
-2.3%
|
Subaru
|
$29,339
|
$27,905
|
$29,061
|
5.1%
|
1.0%
|
Toyota
|
$32,536
|
$32,033
|
$32,279
|
1.6%
|
0.8%
|
Volkswagen
Group
|
$38,092
|
$35,823
|
$37,720
|
6.3%
|
1.0%
|
Industry
|
$34,565
|
$33,552
|
$34,318
|
3.0%
|
0.7%
|
For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom.
(Note: This forecast is based solely on
TrueCar's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is
not a projection of the company's operations.)
About TrueCar
TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a
digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing
transparency about what other people paid for their cars and
enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are
committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar
operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more
than 16,000 Certified Dealers also powers car-buying programs for
some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations,
including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Over
half of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during
their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in
San Francisco and Austin, Texas. For more information, please
visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter.
TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email:
pressinquiries@truecar.com
About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in
Santa Monica, California, ALG is
an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in
both the United States and
Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500
vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto
industry and financial services clients with market industry
insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle
portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned
subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that
provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people
paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for
all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in
Canada since 1981.
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SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.