SANTA MONICA, Calif.,
Jan. 25, 2019 /PRNewswire/
-- TrueCar, Inc.'s (NASDAQ: TRUE) data and analytics
subsidiary, ALG, is introducing the new Retail Health Index (RHI)
to measure automaker brand health. RHI strips away the impact of
price cuts, to show which OEMs are growing retail share due to
increased consumer demand, versus which are "buying" share through
higher incentives.
Looking at the industry overall, including fleet deliveries,
TrueCar's ALG projects total new vehicle sales will reach 1,157,796
units in January, up 0.3% percent from a year ago. This month's
seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle
sales is an estimated 17.0 million units for the month. Excluding
fleet sales, U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks
should increase 0.8% percent to 941,218 units.
"Consumer demand remains robust in January 2019, with positive economic indicators
offsetting concerns over the government shutdown and market
uncertainty," said Oliver Strauss,
Chief Economist at TrueCar's ALG. "Retail sales are up while
incentive spending is down, supporting ALG's position that 2019
will be another strong year for the retail auto industry,"
continued Strauss.
Incentive spending by automakers averaged an estimated
$3,642 per vehicle in January down
$33 dollars or 0.9% percent from a
year ago, and down 3.1% percent from December 2018.
ALG also evaluates average transaction price (ATP) as an
indicator for its Retail Health Index. For January, ALG estimates
ATP for new light vehicles was $34,274, up 1.9% from a year ago while incentives
as a percentage of ATP was down 2.8%.
"Ram stampedes out of the gates in 2019 with solid retail share
growth and declining incentives as a percent of average transaction
price. The result is the industry's largest positive year-over-year
change in ALG's Retail Health Index," said Eric Lyman, Chief Industry Analyst for TrueCar's
ALG. "We're curious to see if 2019 will be the year Ram puts Chevy
and Ford to the test while also siphoning off sales from historical
or aspirational luxury buyers," added Lyman.
Retail Health Index (Forecast)
RHI measures the
changes in retail market share relative to changes
in incentive spending and transaction price to gauge whether OEMs
are "buying" retail share through increased incentives, or whether
share increases are largely demand-driven. An OEM with a
positive RHI score is demonstrating a healthy balance of incentive
spend relative to market share, either by holding incentive
spending flat and increasing share or by increasing incentives with
a higher positive increase in retail share.
Forecasts for the
12 largest manufacturers by volume:
|
|
|
|
|
Total Unit
Sales
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Manufacturer
|
Jan
2019
Forecast
|
Jan
2018
|
YoY %
Change
|
BMW
|
20,960
|
22,063
|
-5.0%
|
Daimler
|
24,509
|
27,603
|
-11.2%
|
FCA
|
131,445
|
133,700
|
-1.7%
|
Ford
|
179,010
|
160,411
|
11.6%
|
GM
|
192,411
|
198,386
|
-3.0%
|
Honda
|
107,031
|
104,542
|
2.4%
|
Hyundai
|
42,886
|
39,629
|
8.2%
|
Kia
|
37,557
|
35,628
|
5.4%
|
Nissan
|
105,088
|
123,538
|
-14.9%
|
Subaru
|
47,297
|
44,357
|
6.6%
|
Toyota
|
162,897
|
167,056
|
-2.5%
|
Volkswagen
Group
|
40,942
|
44,341
|
-7.7%
|
Industry
|
1,157,796
|
1,154,885
|
0.3%
|
Incentive
Spending
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Manufacturer
|
Incentive per Unit
Jan 2019 Forecast
|
Incentive per Unit
% Change vs. Jan 2018
|
Incentive per Unit
% Change vs. Dec 2018
|
BMW
|
$5,297
|
-0.4%
|
-0.7%
|
Daimler
|
$5,987
|
14.5%
|
-4.4%
|
FCA
|
$4,573
|
6.7%
|
-2.3%
|
Ford
|
$4,515
|
6.8%
|
0.4%
|
GM
|
$5,056
|
-2.6%
|
0.0%
|
Honda
|
$2,132
|
21.0%
|
-2.4%
|
Hyundai
|
$2,839
|
1.4%
|
1.3%
|
Kia
|
$3,388
|
-12.0%
|
0.0%
|
Nissan
|
$4,188
|
0.7%
|
-4.7%
|
Subaru
|
$1,072
|
-20.6%
|
0.7%
|
Toyota
|
$2,349
|
-10.5%
|
-6.2%
|
Volkswagen
Group
|
$3,784
|
2.6%
|
-8.2%
|
Industry
|
$3,642
|
-0.9%
|
-3.1%
|
Average
Transaction Price (ATP)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Manufacturer
|
Jan 2019
Forecast
|
Jan
2018
|
Dec
2018
|
YOY %
change
|
MOM %
change
|
BMW
|
$55,367
|
$52,304
|
$53,896
|
5.9%
|
2.7%
|
Daimler
|
$62,343
|
$61,978
|
$60,360
|
0.6%
|
3.3%
|
FCA
|
$36,299
|
$34,528
|
$36,190
|
5.1%
|
0.3%
|
Ford
|
$38,901
|
$37,980
|
$39,729
|
2.4%
|
-2.1%
|
GM
|
$36,692
|
$36,527
|
$37,620
|
0.4%
|
-2.5%
|
Honda
|
$28,281
|
$28,144
|
$28,781
|
0.5%
|
-1.7%
|
Hyundai
|
$23,022
|
$22,709
|
$22,887
|
1.4%
|
0.6%
|
Kia
|
$22,766
|
$23,094
|
$22,870
|
-1.4%
|
-0.5%
|
Nissan
|
$27,403
|
$27,422
|
$28,656
|
-0.1%
|
-4.4%
|
Subaru
|
$29,076
|
$27,848
|
$29,275
|
4.4%
|
-0.7%
|
Toyota
|
$32,192
|
$31,895
|
$32,733
|
0.9%
|
-1.7%
|
Volkswagen
Group
|
$36,858
|
$35,922
|
$37,404
|
2.6%
|
-1.5%
|
Industry
|
$34,274
|
$33,624
|
$34,790
|
1.9%
|
-1.5%
|
For additional data visit the ALG Newsroom.
(Note: This forecast is based solely on
TrueCar's analysis of industry sales trends and conditions and is
not a projection of the company's operations.)
About TrueCar
TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE) is a
digital automotive marketplace that provides comprehensive pricing
transparency about what other people paid for their cars and
enables consumers to engage with TrueCar Certified Dealers who are
committed to providing a superior purchase experience. TrueCar
operates its own branded site and its nationwide network of more
than 16,000 Certified Dealers also powers car-buying programs for
some of the largest U.S. membership and service organizations,
including USAA, AARP, American Express, AAA and Sam's Club. Over
half of all new car buyers engage with the TrueCar network during
their purchasing process. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with offices in
San Francisco and Austin, Texas. For more information, please
visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter.
TrueCar media line: +1-844-469-8442 (US toll-free) | Email:
pressinquiries@truecar.com
About ALG
Founded in 1964 and headquartered in
Santa Monica, California, ALG is
an industry authority on automotive residual value projections in
both the United States and
Canada. By analyzing nearly 2,500
vehicle trims each year to assess residual value, ALG provides auto
industry and financial services clients with market industry
insights, residual value forecasts, consulting and vehicle
portfolio management and risk services. ALG is a wholly-owned
subsidiary of TrueCar, Inc., a digital automotive marketplace that
provides comprehensive pricing transparency about what other people
paid for their cars. ALG has been publishing residual values for
all cars, trucks and SUVs in the U.S. for over 50 years and in
Canada since 1981.
View original content to download
multimedia:http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/truecars-alg-introduces-the-retail-health-index-rhi-to-measure-automaker-brand-health-forecasts-january-auto-sales-to-start-2019-strong-300784210.html
SOURCE TrueCar, Inc.