Forrester: European Retail Sales To Reach €2.7 Trillion By 2028
2023年12月6日 - 7:00PM
ビジネスワイヤ(英語)
Offline and online retail sales to stabilise at
pre-pandemic levels for the first time in 2024
Forrester (Nasdaq: FORR) forecasts that total retail sales of
Europe-5 countries (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK) will
increase from €2.3 trillion in 2023 to reach €2.7 trillion in 2028
at a 2.9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Forrester’s recently
released report, Europe-5 Online Retail Forecast, 2023 To 2028,
estimates total retail sales, online retail sales, and online
retail penetration across 22 product categories, including fashion,
homeware, food and drink, consumer electronics, and media, for each
of the Europe-5 economies. Germany holds the largest share of the
retail market among these five countries, followed (in order) by
the UK and France.
In 2022, offline retail growth outpaced online retail growth for
the first time as more consumers shopped in stores, and this
momentum continued into 2023, but the fundamental growth drivers of
online retail such as greater product selection, round-the-clock
availability, and competitive pricing remain strong. As a result,
Forrester expects online retail sales growth to rebound to
pre-pandemic levels in 2024 and beyond.
Overall, combined online retail sales in Europe-5 countries will
increase from €372 billion in 2023 to €579 billion in 2028 at a
five-year CAGR of 9.2%. Online sales will represent 22% of total
retail sales in these five markets, compared to 16% in 2023.
Country-specific highlights from the report include:
Germany
- In Germany, total retail sales are expected
to reach €680 billion by 2028, up from €585 billion in 2023. - By
2028, online retail sales will represent 22% of total retail sales,
compared to 16% in 2023. - Offline retail sales will reach €527
billion in 2028, up from €490 billion in 2023.
UK
- In 2028, total UK retail sales will reach
£544 billion (€624 billion), up from £459 billion (€527 billion) in
2023. - The UK has the highest online retail penetration among the
Europe-5 markets, with online retail sales expected to represent
32% of total retail sales by 2028, up from 27% in 2023. - Offline
retail sales will reach £368 billion (€423 billion) in 2028, up
from £336 billion (€385 billion) in 2023.
France
- Total retail sales in France are forecasted
to reach €610 billion in 2028, up from €521 billion in 2023. - By
2028, online retail sales will represent 18% of total retail sales,
compared to 14% in 2023. - Offline retail sales will reach €499
billion in 2028, up from €448 billion in 2023.
“Post-pandemic consumer behaviours, global supply chain issues,
and a weak economy are all significant factors that have impacted
the European retail market over the past few years,” said Jitender
Miglani, principal forecast analyst at Forrester. “However, as
inflation cools and the economy stabilises, we expect both offline
and online retail sales to grow at pre-pandemic levels for the
first time in 2024. Online retail sales in particular will perform
well, with categories including media, electronic devices, computer
software, and video games all expected to make up more than 50% of
their respective total retail sales by 2028. To take advantage of
this expected growth, European retailers need to focus on enhancing
their digital presence, building supply chain resilience, and
implementing customer-centric strategies.”
Resources:
- Read Forrester’s Europe-5 Online Retail Forecast, 2023 To 2028
(client access required).
- Learn more about Forrester’s Europe-5 Online Retail Forecast,
2023-2028, in this blog.
- Check out Forrester’s 2024 Retail predictions in this
blog.
About Forrester Forrester (Nasdaq: FORR) is one of the most
influential research and advisory firms in the world. We help
leaders across technology, customer experience, digital, marketing,
sales, and product functions use customer obsession to accelerate
growth. Through Forrester’s proprietary research, consulting, and
events, leaders from around the globe are empowered to be bold at
work — to navigate change and put their customers at the centre of
their leadership, strategy, and operations. Our unique insights are
grounded in annual surveys of more than 700,000 consumers, business
leaders, and technology leaders worldwide; rigorous and objective
research methodologies, including Forrester Wave™ evaluations; 100
million real-time feedback votes; and the shared wisdom of our
clients. To learn more, visit Forrester.com.
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Hannah Segvich hsegvich@forrester.com
Forrester Research (NASDAQ:FORR)
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