TIDMDTL

RNS Number : 8917X

Dexion Trading Limited

14 February 2013

Dexion Trading Limited (the "Company")

January Net Asset Value

The net asset value of the Company's Shares as of 31 January 2013 is as follows:-

GBP Shares

 
      NAV        MTD Performance   YTD Performance 
--------------  ----------------  ---------------- 
 138.16 pence        +2.26%            +2.26% 
--------------  ----------------  ---------------- 
 

In calculating the Company's Net Asset Value the Company's Administrator will rely solely upon the valuation of GBP denominated Permal Macro Holdings Limited ("PMH") Class A shares provided by PMH. The Investment Adviser and third party service providers to PMH, rely on estimates of the value of Underlying Funds in which PMH invests, which are provided, directly or indirectly, by the managers or administrators of those Underlying Funds and such valuations may not be considered 'independent' or may be subject to potential conflicts of interest. Such estimates may be produced as at valuation dates which do not coincide with valuation dates for PMH and may be unaudited or may be subject to little verification or other due diligence and may not comply with generally accepted accounting practices or other valuation principles. The Investment Adviser may not have sufficient information to confirm or review the completeness or accuracy of information provided by those managers or administrators. In addition, these entities may not provide estimates of the value of Underlying Funds in which PMH invests on a regular or timely basis or at all with the result that the values of such investments may be estimated by the Investment Adviser. Both weekly estimates and bi-monthly valuations may be based on valuations provided as of a significantly earlier date and hence the published valuation may differ materially from the actual value of PMH's portfolio. Other risk factors which may be relevant to this valuation are set out in the Company's prospectus dated 12th March 2008.

Monthly Portfolio Review

Investment Adviser Portfolio Outlook

Managers maintain pro-risk portfolios based on an encouraging economic backdrop and the heightened probability that investors will shift their holdings away from safe haven assets in favour of risk assets. In the US, with the "fiscal cliff" debacle avoided, the focus can turn to the underlying data which has been promising, particularly with regards to employment but also on the housing front. This is likely to set the stage for a more favourable environment for risk assets while having bearish implications for government bonds. In Europe, while the growth situation remains delicate, sentiment is improving along with confidence in the region, as concerns over a eurozone breakup, which dominated markets so markedly over the past couple of years, have receded. In Japan, the new government remains on track to curtail the economy's deflationary trajectory via a gradual depreciation of the yen.

Market Overview

The eleventh hour avoidance of the US "fiscal cliff" resulted in improved sentiment and increased risk-taking going into the new year. Indications of early repayments of European Central Bank LTRO funding were greater than anticipated and also served to increase risk appetite. Economic data was encouraging, including improvement in US employment figures, along with aggressive pro-growth measures in Japan and signs that the Chinese economy had bottomed.

Equity markets rose noticeably in January; the MSCI World (Local Currency) rose by 5.4%, with strong gains coming from both developed and emerging markets. In the US, the S&P 500 reached its highest level since 2007 on the back of better-than-expected earnings reports, a sharp increase in housing starts and a drop in initial jobless claims. Japan was once again the prominent performer, with the Nikkei 225 returning 7.2% as the new Abe administration announced a JPY10.3 trillion emergency stimulus package and the Bank of Japan announced prospective plans for increased monetary easing. European equities were buoyed by stronger-than-expected German business sentiment, while a continued bias towards accommodative monetary policy in most emerging market countries and stronger-than-expected GDP data in China benefited emerging market stocks. In terms of manager positioning, most discretionary managers believe that the US economic recovery will be underpinned by continued easing and solid economic data. In addition, a rotation from bonds into equities, where investors are still generally underweight, is likely to occur. Both of these developments are likely to support equity prices. The outlook is also positive in Japan where stocks are expected to be buoyed by a weaker yen, as well as China where the economic picture has improved.

Developed market bond yields generally ended higher in January on the back of stabilising growth and concerns that central banks were showing more tolerance of higher inflation in exchange for more sustainable growth. At the same time, the front end of curves remained anchored by continued monetary easing, resulting in a significant steepening. At the start of the month, the agreement on US fiscal measures led to a broad sell-off across developed market rates, which was further exacerbated by hawkish comments from Draghi at the post-ECB meeting press conference. While yields drifted somewhat lower mid-month, strong equity markets and news of the LTRO repayments drove prices lower into month end. In the US, managers are generally short rates in the 10 year sector given their relatively strong views on the economy. In Europe, while managers maintain long positioning in European rates due to the continued economic malaise, they have recently reduced this exposure rather significantly in light of adverse market action, although they believe the trade is still fundamentally sound given poor growth prospects in Europe. In Japan, certain managers have small shorts in JGBs as an expression of the "reflation trade". Emerging market-focused managers have short exposure in markets where they believe the bond rally has overshot, while maintaining long exposure in countries such as Mexico where the "lower for longer" policy still applies.

Foreign exchange markets trended strongly in January. Notably, the Japanese yen continued to fall against its developed market counterparts amid aggressive monetary policy actions, including the Bank of Japan's formal adoption of a 2% inflation target. The euro strengthened against the US dollar on the back of improved sentiment, while sterling declined following signs that the UK economy was continuing to weaken. After speculation that the Swiss National Bank may use interest rate measures to weaken the currency, the Swiss franc fell to its lowest level against the euro since the September 2011 exchange rate ceiling was implemented. Despite increased risk-taking, commodity and emerging market currencies were generally mixed. The Canadian dollar declined on the back of a more benign inflation outlook, while the Brazilian real moved sharply higher at month end after the central bank signalled that it would favour a stronger currency in order to fight inflation. Asian currencies generally fell on the back of speculation that their central banks would seek weaker exchange rates to protect exports. Managers continue to be short the Japanese yen, believing that the cycle of "reflation" in Japan is continuing and will be achieved through yen depreciation. They are tactically trading the euro against the US dollar, with some holding long positions based on improving sentiment in the region, while others hold a short bias given the poor economic data. On the emerging market front, they are long those currencies with favourable yields and relatively strong supporting fundamentals, such as the Mexican peso and Russian ruble.

The commodity sector had a strong month, with the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index rising 2.4% and the S&P North American Natural Resources Sector Index gaining 6.0%. The energy sector performed strongly, most notably the oil services sector, with prices surging on positive US and Chinese economic data, particularly stronger-than-expected manufacturing data and improving US housing and jobs figures. Gasoline prices also climbed sharply as a result of this data, in addition to speculation that refinery repairs and closures would reduce inventories. However, natural gas prices fell for a third consecutive month on the back of forecasts for milder weather across the US. In the agricultural sector, corn and soybean prices climbed as US data confirmed stockpiles were smaller than expected and investors weighed the impact of excessive rain on South American crops. Gold prices fell for a fourth consecutive month as speculation mounted that the Federal Reserve may end monthly US debt purchases at some point in 2013 and economic data broadly improved. Commodities exposure, whilst light, is dominated by long positions in the agricultural sector, due to the attractive supply/demand fundamentals, as well as long energy, based on highly accommodative policy.

Strategy Overview

Discretionary: +2.90%. Strong gains this month were once again widespread across asset classes, with the exception of commodities. The currencies sector in particular was highly profitable, with gains being driven by shorting the yen against the US dollar and the euro, and to a lesser extent short the Swiss franc against the euro, in addition to long exposure to emerging market currencies such as the Mexican peso, Brazilian real and Russian ruble. In equities, gains were generated by long positioning across Asian and US indices. The fixed income sector was more mixed, with profits made on shorts US treasuries and longs in certain European peripheral bonds, along with some losses from long positioning along the euro curve. Commodities, notably long gold exposure, detracted marginally.

Systematic: +2.01%. Performance among the trend following managers was dominated by gains in currencies and equities which offset losses in other sectors. More specifically, short positions in the Japanese yen and long positions in the euro were accretive, as were longs in US, European and Japanese equities. These positive returns overwhelmed losses from long bond and long gold exposures. Non-trend following performance was mixed, with gains from short exposure to the German yield curve and losses from long yen positions.

Natural resources: +2.06%. Profits derived from long positions in crude oil, while losses came from long gold and gold-related equities.

Relative value arbitrage: +3.77%. All underlying managers were profitable during the month, with beneficial returns across all sub-strategies, including fundamental stock picking and liquidity arbitrage.

 
 Strategy                           Allocation      Number of     Performance by 
                              as of 31 January    managers as         strategy % 
                                             %             of 
                                                   31 January 
--------------------------  ------------------  -------------  ----------------- 
                                                                 January     YTD 
--------------------------  ------------------  -------------  ---------  ------ 
 Discretionary(1)                           58             22      +2.90   +2.90 
--------------------------  ------------------  -------------  ---------  ------ 
 Natural resources                           7              8      +2.06   +2.06 
--------------------------  ------------------  -------------  ---------  ------ 
 Relative value arbitrage                    6              3      +3.77   +3.77 
--------------------------  ------------------  -------------  ---------  ------ 
 Systematic(1)                              20              9      +2.01   +2.01 
--------------------------  ------------------  -------------  ---------  ------ 
 Cash                                        9              -          -       - 
--------------------------  ------------------  -------------  ---------  ------ 
 Total                                     100          41(1) 
--------------------------  ------------------  -------------  ---------  ------ 
 

(1) Discretionary and systematic have one manager in common.

Strategy returns are in US$, net of underlying manager fees only, and not inclusive of either Dexion Trading's or PMH's fees and expenses.

Supplementary Information

Click on, or paste the following link into your web browser, to view a full review of the Dexion Trading Limited portfolio.

http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/8917X_-2013-2-14.pdf

This information is provided by RNS

The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

END

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