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RNS Number : 9289O

Dexion Trading Limited

17 October 2012

Dexion Trading Limited (the 'Company')

September Net Asset Value

The net asset value of the Company's Shares as of 28 September 2012 is as follows:-

GBP Shares

 
      NAV        MTD Performance   YTD Performance 
--------------  ----------------  ---------------- 
 134.14 pence        +0.34%            +0.20% 
--------------  ----------------  ---------------- 
 

In calculating the Company's Net Asset Value the Company's Administrator will rely solely upon the valuation of GBP denominated Permal Macro Holdings Limited ('PMH') Class A shares provided by PMH. The Investment Adviser and third party service providers to PMH, rely on estimates of the value of Underlying Funds in which PMH invests, which are provided, directly or indirectly, by the managers or administrators of those Underlying Funds and such valuations may not be considered 'independent' or may be subject to potential conflicts of interest. Such estimates may be produced as at valuation dates which do not coincide with valuation dates for PMH and may be unaudited or may be subject to little verification or other due diligence and may not comply with generally accepted accounting practices or other valuation principles. The Investment Adviser may not have sufficient information to confirm or review the completeness or accuracy of information provided by those managers or administrators. In addition, these entities may not provide estimates of the value of Underlying Funds in which PMH invests on a regular or timely basis or at all with the result that the values of such investments may be estimated by the Investment Adviser. Both weekly estimates and bi-monthly valuations may be based on valuations provided as of a significantly earlier date and hence the published valuation may differ materially from the actual value of PMH's portfolio. Other risk factors which may be relevant to this valuation are set out in the Company's prospectus dated 12th March 2008.

Monthly Portfolio Review

Investment Adviser Portfolio Outlook

Managers are of the view that global economic growth is slowing with the outlook for both developed and emerging economies being rather bleak. In the developed world, while many systemic market risks have been significantly reduced at the periphery, Europe is in a recession, and while the US continues to outperform its other global counterparts, it almost inevitably faces some form of fiscal tightening in 2013. Emerging countries' economies are undergoing the burden brought on by the slowdown in the developed world and are also suffering from the slowdown in China as well as from decreased commodity demand. Although the growth outlook is dire, this environment nonetheless sets the stage for a myriad of investment opportunities that the company's managers appear well positioned to capture. First, they believe that the ECB's recent actions, which have removed substantial tail risks from the markets, make for a clearer investment landscape. In addition, the ECB has clearly indicated that it will not tolerate markets to price in a break-up of the eurozone, nor high funding stresses at the periphery. This sets the stage for profitable trading opportunities in European peripheral bond markets. Furthermore, managers are playing the 'global accommodative policy' theme in both emerging and developed markets as global slowdown concerns clearly necessitate rates to remain low and even decrease further in certain regions. Many managers also believe that easy monetary policy should continue to lend support to risk assets (i.e. equities and high yielding currencies) in this environment. As policy, data and market sentiment can move rapidly and geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, may unexpectedly emerge, macro managers remain best positioned to react quickly should major market disruptions occur.

Market Overview

Market optimism that was prevalent in August carried over to the first part of September with risk assets rallying on the back of the ECB's announcement of a bond buying programme, which eased fears of a eurozone break-up. Intensifying speculation over further stimulus in the US also served to boost risk assets through the Federal Reserve's 13 September 2012 announcement of an open-end QE3 programme and extension of its 'lower for longer' pledge until mid-2015. Shortly after mid-month a slew of disappointing manufacturing reports in the US, Europe and China sparked global growth concerns and the QE3 rally started to lose momentum. As the month drew to an end, investors refocused their concerns on the eurozone, particularly Spain, where social tensions continued to rise amid unease over whether Spain would request a formal bailout. Disappointing data in the US, including a dramatic decline in US durable goods orders, worse than expected GDP estimates and a fall in the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index to levels not seen since 2009, served to further suppress risk appetites.

Global equities markets ended the month higher, although some of the gains captured early in the month were offset during the latter part of the month. In the US, gains early in the month were driven primarily by QE3 expectations, but this euphoria waned in the second half as concerns centred on the looming fiscal cliff and an unclear economic situation in China. European equities similarly reached an intra-month high on 14 September 2012 on the back of Draghi's bond buying programme and the German constitutional court's dismissal of efforts to block the European Stability Mechanism; however, they declined towards the end of the month given fears surrounding the euro crisis. Emerging markets generally outperformed developed markets, amid China's approved plans for RMB 1 trillion in infrastructure spending and speculation throughout the month that it would further increase its economic stimulus. Equity positioning remains relatively light and is dominated by small long exposure in the US and Europe.

Developed market government bond yields ended the month higher as investors avoided safe haven assets in the early part of September; however, some gains were recouped later in the month as global growth fears resurfaced. Peripheral eurozone bond yields moved lower during the month following the ECB announcement regarding the bond buying programme which provided the intended relief for those markets. In the developed world, exposure is primarily focused on long positions at the short end of the European yield curve, as managers believe ongoing regional weakness will only lead to further monetary easing. Some believe that the ECB may even cut rates before year-end. Managers continue to tactically trade peripheral bond markets, where spreads are likely to narrow. In the emerging world, many yield curves are pricing in too few rate cuts and, in some cases, a large amount of rate hikes. Yet all these countries need to have accommodative monetary policies and as such, managers are selectively long emerging market bonds.

The foreign exchange sector underwent significant volatility during the month, with the US dollar ultimately ending lower than most of its global counterparts on the back of continued accommodative policy by the Federal Reserve. The euro moved sharply higher against the US dollar in the first half of September, rising over 4% to an intra-month high of 1.31. The euro gave back some gains in the latter half of the month amid general risk aversion, but renewed its upward trend towards the end of the month following weak economic data in the US and better-than-expected, though questionable, Spanish bank stress test results. The Japanese yen appreciated against the US dollar despite the Bank of Japan's efforts to weaken the currency by increasing its asset purchase programme by Yen10 trillion. Commodity and emerging market currencies rose during the month, with notable gains in the New Zealand dollar and Mexican peso, which rose by 3.4% and 3.8%, respectively. Managers are generally short the US dollar as a result of the most recent accommodative policy by the Fed. Long positions are dominated by emerging market currencies that should benefit from reflationary measures to boost certain assets, as well as the search for yield. These include Asian currencies and certain Latin American currencies such as the Mexican peso.

Crude oil prices moved significantly lower given the unexpected surge of inventories as production and imports rebounded from Hurricane Isaac, Saudi Arabia announced it may take action to lower prices and OPEC indicated supplies are ample. Conversely, natural gas prices climbed significantly given reports of smaller than normal inventory gains as well as decreasing concerns that US stockpiles would reach storage limits before the winter weather boosts demand. Speculation that increasing demand from electricity generators - a result of fuel switching - would help reduce oversupply also boosted prices. Grains prices, particularly for soybeans and corn, moved considerably lower on the back of speculation that drought effects throughout the US midwest during the summer would not be as austere as previously thought. Precious metals prices rose amid persistent uncertainties and aggressive monetary policy measures, increasing their appeal as a store of value. Exposure in the sector is dominated primarily by long exposure to gold.

Strategy Overview

Discretionary: +1.37%. Managers who performed particularly well during the month were those who continued to tactically trade European peripheral sovereign bonds in order to capitalise on narrowing spreads. Particularly profitable positions included long Irish, Spanish and Portuguese bonds. In addition, emerging markets-focused managers with long exposure to credit and currencies fared well. Long exposure to gold also proved profitable. Managers' constructive bias towards equities was rewarding; however, some managers did give back much of the early gains during the second half sell-off as a result of an untimely increase in their exposure.

Systematic: -1.44%. Losses were particularly pronounced among the non-trend following managers. Long positions in emerging market currencies, as well as short positions in the euro, were the primary detractors of performance. In addition, short exposure to oil and long exposure to US and German fixed income were also detrimental. The allocation to trend following managers also suffered amid the sharp reversals in September. Long positions in bonds and crops were the primary contributor to losses.

Natural resources: +1.41%. Gold and gold equities were the largest contributor to positive returns in September as gold prices appreciated 5%. In addition, long positions in natural resource-related equities further contributed to performance.

Relative value arbitrage: +0.61%. Statistical arbitrage and liquidity arbitrage strategies profited during the month, offsetting losses from fundamental equity market neutral managers.

 
 Strategy                             Allocation       Number of      Performance by 
                              as of 28 September     managers as          strategy % 
                                               %              of 
                                                    28 September 
--------------------------  --------------------  --------------  ------------------ 
                                                                   September     YTD 
--------------------------  --------------------  --------------  ----------  ------ 
 Discretionary(1)                             54              22       +1.37   +3.30 
--------------------------  --------------------  --------------  ----------  ------ 
 Natural resources                             8              10       +1.41   +2.44 
--------------------------  --------------------  --------------  ----------  ------ 
 Relative value arbitrage                      6               3       +0.61   +1.21 
--------------------------  --------------------  --------------  ----------  ------ 
 Systematic(1)                                24              11       -1.44   -0.32 
--------------------------  --------------------  --------------  ----------  ------ 
 Cash                                          8               -           -       - 
--------------------------  --------------------  --------------  ----------  ------ 
 Total                                       100           45(1) 
--------------------------  --------------------  --------------  ----------  ------ 
 

(1) Discretionary and systematic have one manager in common.

Strategy returns are in US$, net of underlying manager fees only, and not inclusive of either Dexion Trading's or PMH's fees and expenses.

Supplementary Information

Click on, or paste the following link into your web browser, to view a full review of the Dexion Trading Limited portfolio.

http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/9289O_-2012-10-17.pdf

This information is provided by RNS

The company news service from the London Stock Exchange

END

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