for its respective underlying physical commodity. A market where futures prices are greater than the spot prices is referred to as a “contango” market. Commodity futures prices may be greater than spot prices for a variety of reasons, including costs of storing physical commodities until the delivery date, financing costs, and market expectations that future spot prices of the commodity may be higher than current spot prices. As any commodity futures contract approaches expiration, its value will approach the spot price of the underlying physical commodity, because by expiration it will effectively represent a contract to buy or sell the physical commodity for immediate (or “spot”) delivery. Therefore, if the market for any commodity futures contract is in contango, then the value of the futures contract would tend to decline over time (assuming the spot price for the underlying physical commodity remains unchanged), because the higher futures price would fall as it converges to the lower spot price by expiration. If the market for a commodity futures contract is in contango and the spot price for the underlying physical commodity remains constant, the underlying asset would enter into a hypothetical position in the futures contract at the higher contango futures price and then unwind that position closer to the lower spot price, and then enter into a hypothetical position in a new futures contract at the higher contango futures price and unwind that position closer to the lower spot price, and so on over the term of the Notes, all the while accumulating losses from the erosion in value that results as the higher contango price declines toward the lower spot price.
Investors in the Notes should understand that many of the underlying constituents have historically been in contango markets. Therefore, negative roll yields are likely to adversely affect the level of the underlying asset and any return on the Notes. Any negative roll yield with respect to an underlying constituent will offset any gains in the spot price of the underlying physical commodity that may occur over the term of the Notes, exacerbate any decline and cause a steady erosion in value if the spot price of the underlying physical commodity remains relatively constant.
♦The Bloomberg Commodity IndexSM reflects excess return, not total return — The return on the Notes is based on the performance of the Bloomberg Commodity IndexSM, which reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the underlying constituents. It is not, however, linked to a “total return” index, which, in addition to reflecting those returns, would also reflect interest that could be earned on funds committed to the trading of the underlying physical commodities. The return on your Notes will not include such a total return feature or interest component.
♦The index sponsor may be required to replace a designated contract if the existing commodities contract is terminated or replaced — A commodity futures contract known as a “designated contract” has been selected as the reference contract for each of the physical commodities of the underlying asset. Data concerning this designated contract will be used to calculate the underlying asset. If a designated contract were to be terminated or replaced in accordance with the rules described under “Information About the Underlying Asset” herein, a comparable commodity futures contract may be selected by the sponsor of the underlying asset (as specified under “Information about the Underlying Asset” herein, the “index sponsor”), if available, to replace that designated contract. The termination or replacement of any designated contract may have an adverse impact on the level of the underlying asset.
♦Changes affecting the underlying asset, including regulatory changes, could have an adverse effect on the market value of, and return on, your Notes — The composition of the underlying asset may change over time, as additional commodity futures contracts satisfy the eligibility criteria of the underlying constituents currently included in the underlying asset fail to satisfy such criteria and those changes could impact the composition of the underlying asset. A number of modifications to the methodology for determining the futures contracts to be included in the underlying asset, and for valuing the underlying asset, have been made in the past several years and further modifications may be made in the future. Such changes could adversely affect the market value of, and return on, the Notes.
In addition, indices like the underlying asset have been, and continue to be, the subject of regulatory guidance and proposal for reform. including the European Union’s Regulation (EU) 2016/1011. The occurrence of a benchmark event (as defined in the accompanying product supplement under “General Terms of the Notes — Discontinuance of, Adjustments to, or Benchmark Event or Change in Law Affecting, an Underlying Index; Alteration of Method of Calculation”), such as the failure of a benchmark (the underlying asset) or the administrator (the index sponsor) or user of a benchmark (such as UBS) to comply with the authorization, equivalence or other requirements of the benchmarks regulation, may result in the discontinuation of the relevant benchmark or a prohibition on its use.
If events such as these occur, or if the final level is not available because of a market disruption event, non-trading day or for any other reason, and no successor to the underlying asset is selected, the calculation agent — which initially will be UBS Securities LLC, an affiliate of UBS — may determine the final level — and thus any amount payable at maturity — in a manner it considers appropriate as described further in the accompanying product supplement under “General Terms of the Notes — Discontinuance of, Adjustments to, or Benchmark Event or Change in Law Affecting, an Underlying Index; Alteration of Method of Calculation” and as otherwise modified under “Additional Terms of the Notes — Early Termination following a Change in Law” herein.
♦Legal and regulatory changes could adversely affect the market value of, and return on, the Notes — Futures contracts and options on futures contracts, including the commodity futures contracts comprising the underlying asset, are subject to extensive statutes, regulations and margin requirements. The CFTC and the exchanges on which such futures contracts trade are authorized to take extraordinary actions in the event of a market emergency, including, for example, the retroactive implementation of speculative position limits or higher margin requirements, the establishment of daily limits and the suspension of trading. Furthermore, some of the exchanges on which such commodity futures contracts trade have regulations designed to limit the amount of fluctuations in futures contract prices. These limits could adversely affect the market prices of the underlying constituents.
In addition, the regulation of commodity transactions in the U.S. is subject to ongoing modification by government and judicial action. The effect on the market value of, and return on, the Notes of any future regulatory change is impossible to predict, but could be substantial and adverse to the interests of holders of the Notes. In October 2020, the CFTC adopted rules to establish revised or new limits on the size of the positions any person may hold in 25 agricultural, metals and energy futures contracts and futures, options and swaps that are economically equivalent to those futures contracts. The limits apply to a person’s combined position in the specified 25 futures contracts and options on futures (“core referenced futures contracts”), futures and options on futures directly or indirectly linked to the core referenced futures contracts, and economically equivalent swaps. These rules came into effect on January 1, 2022 for covered futures and options on futures contracts and on January 1, 2023 for covered swaps. The rules may reduce liquidity in the exchange-traded market for commodity futures, which may, in turn, have an adverse effect on the market value of, and return on, the Notes. Market participants may decide, or be required, to sell their positions in certain commodity futures as a result of these rules. While the effects of these or other regulatory developments are difficult to predict, if broad market selling were to occur, it would likely lead to declines, possibly significant declines, in the price of commodity futures and therefore, the level of the underlying and the market value of, and return on, the Notes.
♦UBS cannot control actions by the index sponsor and the index sponsor has no obligation to consider your interests — UBS and its affiliates are not affiliated with the index sponsor and have no ability to control or predict its actions, including any errors in or discontinuation of public disclosure regarding methods or policies relating to the calculation of the underlying asset. The index sponsor is not involved in the Notes offering in any way and has no obligation to consider your interest as an owner of the Notes in taking any actions that might affect the market value of, and return on, your Notes.