Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (QB) (FMCKN)

Barely crossed 1M 

Mighty quiet here in the FMCC wasteland! Only the occasional wandering zombie (deceased shareholder).

This is what winning looks like now counting housing!

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/average-new-car-payment-reaches-all-time-high-affordability-issues-persist

Germany Flat ! F2 talks have died!

RED - Germany, game plan has changed! Follow the crumbs!

"POTUS still holds Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in a TEMPORARY conservatorship after the government has looted $301 billion of their equity. By his definition he's an Unpatriotic Communist."

His worth to us is rapidly diminishing. His true colors are beginning to show!

@POTUS still holds Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in a TEMPORARY conservatorship after the government has looted $301 billion of their equity. By his definition he's an Unpatriotic Communist.@pulte @SecScottBessent @SecretaryTurner @howardlutnick @BillAckman @michaeljburry https://t.co/C9q4wA3qR4— Guido da Costa Pereira (@GuidoPerei) July 5, 2026

Ever since Bessent cold cocked Tommy Boy the stock has bleed. 4 months ago, I said Bessent is the problem !

Beast has been the problem since day 1

Needs to be told to do it or get fired asap

Trump is paying a big price for keeping Scott Bessent. Bessent’s major failures:1. Legal Failure of Tariff in SC etc..2. Failure to lower interest rates and influence Jerome Powell3. Failure to revive housing4. InflationIt’s time for a change and release F2 

I hope not, I have a leg in the fight. Last September the GSEs were booming. Keep the faith Lil Sammy Boy.

What previous business adventures are you referring to? Btw, I don't disagree with you, Bessent is anywhere from between part of the hold up to a sigificant reason for the hold up which is natural because Treasury just doesn't give money back one they get it and may not do so unless there is tremendous public pressure or a legal verdict they can lean on ...

Scott Bessent is the problem he doesn't want to release look at his previous business adventures / businesses

No question Mac sees $4 next week!

😎

I'm writing this for benefit of those who weren't here from the start and think FnF situation is similar to AIG. It isn't. The court actually sided with Starr International and ruled that exercising the warrants was a TAKING. However, it awarded Starr $0 because without the government's help, AIG would have been bankrupt. According to their Regulator James Lockhart, FnF were well capitalized when the warrants were issued. Their conservatorship was described by President Bush as TEMPORARY to ensure liquidity in the secondary financial market. In other words, they were forced to buy bad mortgages being held by TBTF banks. I'll be in the forefront, if FnF warrants are exercised.

https://share.google/aimode/bgcnjNv8dAxXFSQwO

https://www.fhfa.gov/news/statement/statement-of-ofheo-director-james-b.-lockhart-in-support-of-secretary-paulson-administration-and-the

https://www.gata.org/node/6758

I like #10 on Pag's list! Republican and Democrats agree ........ yeah, among F& shareholders. As far as Congress is concerned, it could give a damn.
We have NO friends in lofty places.

this is why that fool deleted his social media ... Bradford looked foolish over and over eating and regurgitating his slop too ...

Just a reminder about the expectations for the Biden Admin. I believe Trump will act and hopefully soon but he will act.

posted today by Tim Pagliara - you've GOT TO BE KIDDING RIGHT Pags ? #6 Biden is a seasoned politician surrounded by skilled strategists. pic.twitter.com/3IiF65TMXY— Cmdr Ron Luhmann (@usnavycmdr) January 2, 2024

Germany blood bath again !

Stupidly cheaper yet and going to get even cheaper ! Ackman silent now !

One day there will be an announcement that lands like Thor’s hammer. Clarity will be brought amidst either tears of joy or tears of despair. $FNMA $FMCC— Cassandra Unchained (@michaeljburry) July 3, 2026

Yes, absolutely correct, but that does not mean it stops there. It's been 17 years and the scams continue.

Tired of all the excuses over the years. There is always a reason they cannot end the crime, but in reality they like what they have stolen, and they don't want to give it back.

It's hard to celebrate after knowing what the government has done here, the magnitude of the theft, the audacity of the leadership. The companies were sold, seized back, profits stolen and now will be sold a second time. That is like communism on steroids. We want to defeat it but in communist fashion the leadership has removed all avenues of justice.

Happy 250th America! and to my friends here. I'll be busy celebrating starting today, big partty tomorrow, rain or shine. Please spread patriotism and love of country. Defeat the communist/socialist POS in this country. God bless America and it's freedom loving people!

Agreed !
They have changed their tune from release to maybe to No rush. So what's it going to be next month? I think they are either building a master plan for the SWF or its a release as DJT walks out the door and a big win for all that donated and his buddies. This will be a big win for shareholders if that happens

Toying with azz is right.

Dont give Trump any ideas - UST could negotiate a deal with the FHFA regarding the SPS and Fannie and Freddie could contribute the amount of stock that would have been given UST in a SPS cramdown to Trump accounts. Probably a real political winner?

@POTUS @DirectorPulte @SecScottBessent @BillAckman @michaeljburry

I'll donate 1% of my FNMA & FMCC holdings to the Trump A/cs if Treasury:

1. Writes down the SPS to zero.
2. Cancels the warrants.
3. Joins FHFA in ending the ridiculous TEMPORARY conservatorship.— Guido da Costa Pereira (@GuidoPerei) July 2, 2026

Enough BS, this needs to higher. 

No Rush !

"They also want to give a "chunk" to their banker buddies."

The government has already done that ONCE many years ago. Remember when the FHFA sued all the lenders for sending them toxic mortgages, then settled, literally, for pennies on the dollar? All of those mortgages were toxic! Cost FNMA and FMCC billions and billions!

There are people somewhere laughing at all of us daily for being on the Freddie Mac - No Politics Message Board. Why, you might ask? Because POLITICS is what has been trying to kill us for going on 18 years and yet here we are!
Gluttons for punishment and constant disappointment, I suppose.
There's not 5¢ difference between Trump, Biden, Obama and Bush as well as all their appointed Secretaries of the Treasury.. All of them are capos in a criminal enterprise. They killed the white knight that could have saved the day back in 2008. We will be screwed over by this government. We just don't know to what extent.

This administration wants to celebrate 250 years of freedom they can start by freeing Fannie and Freddie from 18 years of tyranny. Show America you can gain your freedom once you pay the fine and do your time.

Housing is a big yawn - President Trump ... that pretty much sums up how he feels ... still hasn't signed the housing bill because he's pissed at Congress for not being able to pass the Save America Act ... I want it too, but this is pathetic and illustrative of one of Trump's lesser qualities: he's vindictive and petty ... in the month that's left before the August recess it's highly unlikely Luna's new bill or any other passage of a Save America Act is in the cards ...

I don't know if Luna is fully educated on reconciliation bills, but she stated the Byrd Rule would pretty much kill any chance of the Save Act getting added to a reconciliation bill, and my belief which is fact - that a reconciliation bill could be used for the Treasury to "forgive" any portion of the GSE outstanding bill according to fake c'ship - is highly unlikely for Trump to fight for or be added in the reconciliation bill either ...

We are currently at the mercy of an appeals court which is in no hurry to make a decision ... complicated decisions like these with high dollar amounts at stake run closer to 6 months to return - some have take up to a year - they usually spend the Summer months writing their opinions, and if they are like the rest of normal humans, Summer means relaxation ... my guess is that all the advisors around Trump are telling him he has all the time in world to make a decision thus the "it's not a rush" bullshit he pumped out last month ...

Bottom line: fuck these guys, all the talk about the Constitution, Liberty, and communism is political campaign nonsense for the midterms ... they'll steal every shareholder dollar they can get away with and split it amongst themselves and the tech, crypto, and AI investments Trump is making billions off of ... he has fully lost my support

F2 and Crypto they have crushed !

I don't think his call was bad, the failure is on the part of the administration to take action. The gubnit could have banked their $30 billion, the shares could be trading on the big board for $35-$60, the SPS could be retired, and the gubnit could be sitting on the other 70% of the equity. It's possible they are trying to figure a way to steal more than the 80% and keep the share price high. They also want to give a "chunk" to their banker buddies.

Once you are a made man or woman in the DC syndicate you are immune from prosecution. Look at all the criminals over the years, have any of them gone to jail? Only their political enemies have gone to jail. I don't need to name the names but the list is long. So, do not get your hopes up any of the criminals will go to jail. Look at the conservatorship, it's the crime of the century and nothing gets done, going on 18 years. So, enjoy your families, hobbies, and life in general and don't expect too much from your gubnit.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/americas-housing-market-run-out-something-more-important-than-homes

Anyone want to bet Tulsi already had the "declasifying pile" ready for Pulte, hence the temporary assignment to clean house and declasify. Will the Obama docs be in that pile? We can press on with our social media calling out campaign to get true justice and to stop the communistic anti-capitalist crap going on. Maybe Trump knows no one has a spine to do what's right and he knows Pulte is righteous, and a good attack dog? He did clean things up at F2, and yes he waits long because he's a soldier for Trump and does not move unless ordered to. I am not sticking up for any of this or anyone, just my honest observations. Maybe our birthday celebrating our freedom will truly mean something. It takes a master tactician to navigate the swampy dysfunction and criminal environment in DC.

Germany Crushed yet again, can we just stay at 1 time? Ackman made a stupidly terrible call, what’s new!

Hi Neo, - I dont think I missed the point - we both are making a LOT of assumptions and you most important assumption is that common shareholders will not suffer dilution of any type - warrants - SPS - JPS Conversion. You get a valuation of $ 221 a share for FNMA and an implied valuation of FMCC of around $300 per share ( assuming the same 16 PE).
I am expecting 90% dilution and you are expecting 0% dilution - my guestimate is FNMA in the $ 25 range and FMCC in the $ 35 range.
Lets see has it most correct in the end? Hopefully we will get the ERCF relief soon and then see how the Fairholme/Lamberth Decision works out and refine our estimates after that.

You CLEARLY missed the point of that valuation illustration. That would be the values absent conservatorship, NO DILUTION, and NO egregious capital standards, or under the condition they already meet their full required capital - give or take a slightly different multiple based on the actual specifics of each company and the prevailing market conditions. This is the method used under normal market circumstances. Furthermore, this is NOT "my" methodology; it IS THE METHODOLOGY OF FINANCIAL ANALYSTS marketwide since for time immemorial (at least for mature stocks which F2 are). You just seem simply too incapable of understanding the financial, valuation, and market nuances underlying the simple mathematcis of these valuation methodologies to have a clear discussion. Or, as it seems clearly to me, you are married to an outcome that you want to continue defending for your own intellectual pride. ALL valuation has to have a solid basis in the actual earnings that can be paid to an investor and other associated market realities.

The illustration was meant to show how much room there is for the government to make money, as well as shareholders without all of the many complicating factors (legal, political, logistical, and administrative, significant financial discount incentive to investors, JPS conversion complications) that go along with executing the full warrants. Dilute each company 5, 10, or 15% and redo the calc to get a more realistic value of what each shareholder would make under the conditions of that dilution. But those prices would only be reached under the condition of proper ECRF capital requirement, being fully capitalized, and the government COMPLETELY relinquishing ALL OTHER CLAIMS.

Each of those other calcuations would give a fair estimate under the conditions mentioned above for each equity price and still make the jps full stated value.

Thanks Neo - based on your methodology - For FMCC - can I assume $12.5 bn in earnings divided by 650 million shares with a 16 multiple - about $ 307 per share? Hope you are right!!! - $ 307 on common and $ 25 on JPS!! - best possible outcome. I am basically assuming common will be 10% of your number- in the $ 30 range- which is interesting since I am assuming common will end up with 10% of the equity rather than your assumption of 110%.

Trillion, 10X, tired of winning ?

@DNIPulte

If you release the files regarding @FannieMae & @FreddieMac that @POTUS44 is hiding behind EXECUTIVE PRIVILEGE, I'll stop calling you TOO LATE & DO NOTHING. https://t.co/vzINtEFrUr— Guido da Costa Pereira (@GuidoPerei) July 1, 2026

To answer your question, I don't know. It wouldn't surprise me because of the POOR performance all that money bought by the plaintiffs! They got screwed, for sure.

One can never underestimate the government's capacity (and their corporate welfare recipients) for greed, hubris, or market disrupting action; however, I believe there is a zero percent chance that the warrants are executed in full mainly due to two things:

1. It creates a de facto takings, all the courts know it and would have no constitutional basis on which to deny it
- winning it and how much can be won are beside the point; it creates a justiciable event that RISKS tying up GSEs/housing beyond any administration's ability to control their full use for more time than they likely see as comfortable

2. the logistics and financial realities associated with trying to sell the massive amount of shares into a market that realizes the entities they will buy into are massively diluted, have very low capacity for paying dividends, are still for all practical purposes under government control with NO real prospects of the kind of growth required to compete in the market for other investments - this requires a 20-30-50% discount to entice investors to buy those shares ... they would be trying to sell more than four times as many shares as they sold in AIG which took 6 different rounds to sell over nearly a two year period. Finally, the proceeds will do NOTHING to move the needle on a single year budget deficit and certainly less than NOTHING, ZERO, NADA with regard to the national deficit. Also, a takings case could force them to give up a significant portion of the proceeds.

Full execution of the warrants, in my opinion, has no chance of any real financial feasibility or success, but as I said, it's not that foolish bureaucrats will not attempt it, but there must be at least one adult in the room with solid financial reality experience.

For Fannie, at an average of roughly $16B dollars in net earnings over the past 10 years with current shares of 1.158B and a financial industry multiplier average of players in their class of 16 we have an undiluted share price of:

[$16B/1.158B] x16 = $221/share

Again, this is TOTALLY UNDILUTED no warrant or sps dilution, and JUST FOR FANNIE. Think about adding Freddie into the mix. This clearly shows there is plenty of room for both the government to make some money and shareholders to be richly and justly reward without having to fully execute those warrants (or cramdown from SPS). This is further supported and even magnified by a proper risk-based ECRF cap requirements commensurate with the GSEs line of business.

In my opinion there is no reason other than greed (government or other industry players), or power hungry control freaks that we cannot see the junior preferred receive full stated value and both equities return to their pre-c'ship levels almost immediately after the solution is defined and put into motion with both sets of securities rising all along the way to those values.

It seems certain they are waiting on the appeals decision (although this is only faux-necessary) the numbers at stake are less than one percent of the GSE's net worth in total. But some kind of remand to lower courts for additional damages could be the decisive factor in the government being prodded to move quickly to the solution that delivers the outcome I speak of above.

But the ugly caveat is that Trump digs in when he feels forced, the other industry players as well. There is a risk they ALL dig in, especially if there is a remand to the lower courts for further damages - they might just let that playout or even appeal to SCOTUS. In that case we could take another two years. An ugly thought indeed.