GCL Geiger Counter Limited

Geiger Counter Limited Plc 

Monthly Investor Report - 24^th September 2024

( All Factsheet data is at 30^th August 2024)

The full monthly factsheet is now available on the Company's website and a summary can be found below. 

NCIM - Geiger Counter Ltd - Fund Page for Geiger Counter Ltd

Enquiries: 

For the Investment Manager 

CQS (UK) LLP 

Craig Cleland 

0207 201 5368 

For the Company Secretary and Administrator 

BNP Paribas S.A., Jersey Branch 

Dean Plowman/Ann-Marie Pereira 

01534 813 967/ 01534 709198 

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Fund Description 

The objective of the Geiger Counter Fund is to provide investors with the potential for capital growth through investment primarily in the securities of companies involved in the exploration, development and production of energy, predominantly within the uranium industry. Up to 30% of the value of the Company's investment portfolio may be invested in other resource-related companies from outside the energy sector.

Portfolio Managers 

Keith Watson and Robert Crayfourd 

Key Advantages for the Investor 

·      Access to mining assets in the uranium sector

·      May benefit from embedded subscription share

·      Low correlation to major asset classes

Key Fund Facts¹ 

Ordinary Share and NAV Performance² 

Commentary³ 

With utility fuel purchasing remaining muted, the U3O8 price closed the month at around 3.6% lower at $79.5/lb. Against this backdrop, related equities struggled, and together with sterling's 2% strengthening against the dollar, the Fund NAV closed August around 14% lower compared to an 11% sterling registered by the Solactive Pure Play Uranium Index. Nexgen's share price ended the month 12% lower, similar to a 12.5% decline registered by Cameco.

Kazatomprom, which controls approximately 40% of the global U3O8 production, released mixed production guidance for 2024 and 2025. Although 2024 guidance increased modestly (58-61Mlbs), partially reversing a June downgrade (to 56Mlbs), the 2025 outlook provided at the end of the month was lowered by approximately 17% to 25-26.5kt (65-69Mlbs). This largely confirmed that Kazatomprom's previous targets, which had implicitly assumed full recovery in acid availability and equated to 100% of licensed output, were overly optimistic.

Cameco's Q2 results appeared to dampen sentiment towards the sector, with the group reporting disappointing earnings and indicating that it continues to assess a potential production increase from its McArthur River mine (from 18Mlbs to 25Mlbs, 100% basis). Notably, deliveries from Inkai remain challenging and group sales volumes of 6.2Mlbs lagged a 22% sequential increase in Q2 attributable production of 7.1Mlbs.

The previously announced US ban on importing Russian material continues to affect the market. US utility Centrus Energy was the first to apply for a waiver to continue imports from Russia.

Notably, they received permission for two years rather than the four years they had applied for. Uncertainty surrounding the introduction of US waivers may be a contributory factor deterring utilities from buying fuel in the short term.

Elsewhere, commentary from Japan's new Prime Minister indicated continued support for restarting the nation's reactors. The government is meeting to discuss the measures needed to gain local consent for the resumption of the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa power plant in the Niigata prefecture.

With utility fuel purchasing remaining muted, the U3O8 price closed the month at around 3.6% lower at $79.5/lb. Against this backdrop, related equities struggled, and together with sterling's 2% strengthening against the dollar, the Fund NAV closed August around 14% lower compared to an 11% sterling registered by the Solactive Pure Play Uranium Index. Nexgen's share price ended the month 12% lower, similar to a 12.5% decline registered by Cameco.

Paladin and Fission's share prices fell around 17% in sterling terms as the shareholder special resolution for the proposed merger with Paladin was delayed. At the same time, the two groups sought the requisite two-thirds shareholder approval. Ur-Energy held up better relative to this, declining a more modest 6%.

CQS (UK) LLP

4th Floor, One Strand, London WC2N 5HR, United Kingdom

T: +44 (0) 20 7201 6900 | F: +44 (0) 20 7201 1200

CQS (US), LLC

152 West 57th Street, 40th Floor, New York, NY 10019, US

T: +1 212 259 2900 | F: +1 212 259 2699

Tavistock Communications

18 St. Swithin's Lane, London EC4N 8AD

T: +44 20 7920 3150 | geigercounter@tavistock.co.uk

Sources: ¹R&H Fund Services (Jersey) Limited, as at the last business day of the month indicated at the top of this report. ²R&H Fund Services Limited/DataStream, as at the last business day of the month indicated at the top of this report, total return performance net of fees and expenses based on bid prices. These include historic returns and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of investments can go down as well as up. Please read the important legal notice at the end of this document. ³Market data sourced from Bloomberg unless otherwise stated. The Fund may since have exited some or all of the positions detailed in the commentary. ⁴ BMO, UxC, Company data September 2023. ⁵ www.eia.gov. ⁶CQS, as at the last business day of the month indicated at the top of this report. For methodology details see Article 4(3) of Directive 2011/61/EU (AIFMD) and Articles 6, 7, 9 and 10 of Delegated Regulation 231/2013. ⁷CQS, as at the last business day of the month indicated at the top of this report. For methodology details see Article 4(3) of Directive 2011/61/EU (AIFMD) and Articles 6, 8, 9, 10 and 11 of Delegated Regulation 231/2013.